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Studio Dragon Studio Dragon Bloomberg Code (253450 KS) Reuters Code (253450.KQ) 6 October 2020 All roads lead to Studio Dragon [Media/ad] SeJong Hong ☎ (82-2) 3772-1584 [email protected] BUY CP (Oct. 5) TP (6 months) Upside (Maintain) KRW84,300 KRW120,000 42.3% COMPANY REPORT I Studio Dragon 6 October 2020 Rating BUY (Maintain ) 3Q20 operating profit forecast at KRW10.1bn (-7.4% YoY) TP (6 months) KRW120,000 We expect Studio Dragon to have posted consolidated operating profit of Upside 42.3% KRW10.1bn (-7.4% YoY) on sales of KRW144.3bn (+10.0% YoY) for 3Q20. With most hit drama series sold to Netflix in 1H20, earnings are likely to decline in 3Q compared to the previous quarter. But earnings are not a key KOSPI 2,358.00p share price indicator at this point. Studio Dragon has recently released a KOSDAQ 858.39p disclosure announcing that it signed two licensing deals with CJ ENM and Market cap KRW2,371.1bn/USD2,079.9mn iQIYI for Mount Jiri co-produced with Astory, which prove the strong demand Par value KRW500 for Korean drama contents in Southeast Asia. Outstanding shares 28.1mn Free float 10.8mn (38.3%) A leading production house in high demand 52-week high/low KRW92,500/KRW65,000 Studio Dragon is in high demand in the global contents market. The company 60-day avg. trading volume 259,709shrs has achieved economies of scale in content production based on: 1) a 60-day avg. turnover KRW22,371mn creative workforce of 226 artists including 114 writers; 2) production of Foreign ownership 9.11% about 30 dramas a year; and 3) a solid captive market (CJ ENM). Its low Major shareholders dependence on specific artists and capability to turn all genres of intellectual CJ ENM and 5 others 61.32% properties into video content have made Studio Dragon the best production house to partner with for both domestic and overseas platform providers. Absolute performance 3M -6.3% We focus on the following three momentums going forward. First, Studio 6M 4.3% Dragon seeks original drama production deals with US-based platforms like 12M 26.8% HBO, Apple, and Amazon that spend trillions of won in content production Relative performance to KOSDAQ every year. Second, collaboration is expected with domestic OTT platforms. 3M -17.9% Telcos and internet platforms are focusing on developing original contents 6M -30.4% to compete with Netflix and YouTube, and need to partner with a production 12M -8.2% house that can turn hundreds of IPs into video content. Third, expectations for China-bound exports are once again on the rise. Chinese President Xi Share performance Jinping’s visit to Korea may lead to the removal of China’s ban on Korean media contents. Studio Dragon is also free of COVID-19 impact. Exports of (KRW) (Indexed,Oct-19=100) dramas that are already produced mean no additional cost for the company. 95,000 160 86,000 140 Target price raised to KRW120,000 for media sector top pick 77,000 120 We raise our target price for Studio Dragon to KRW120,000. The leading 68,000 100 KOSDAQ Index = 100 content provider driving the Korean Wave in pop culture is our media sector 59,000 80 top pick in view of: 1) fast-paced growth of overseas distribution revenue; 2) 50,000 60 10/19 02/20 06/20 10/20 strong demand for video contents in the domestic market; and 3) recent share Studio Dragon (LHS) price correction. We expect Studio Dragon shares to enjoy a rally in 4Q. Relative performance to KOSDAQ (RHS) Year to Sales OP Pre-tax NP EPS Growth BPS PER EV/EBITDA PBR ROE Net debt December (bn KRW) (bn KRW) (bn KRW) (bn KRW) (KRW) (%) (KRW) (x) (x) (x) (%) ratio (%) 2018 379.6 39.9 45.6 35.8 1,278 21.7 14,305 72.3 21.1 6.5 9.3 (39.2) 2019 468.7 28.7 33.1 26.4 941 (26.3) 15,242 85.9 14.9 5.3 6.4 (24.9) 2020F 559.1 49.7 53.1 41.0 1,460 55.1 16,702 57.7 12.7 5.0 9.1 (15.1) 2021F 618.6 55.8 59.2 46.2 1,644 12.6 18,346 51.2 11.1 4.6 9.4 (13.1) 2022F 673.8 62.5 66.8 52.1 1,856 12.9 20,202 45.4 9.9 4.2 9.6 (13.2) Source: Company data, Shinhan Investment Corp. / Note: TB = turn black, TR = turn red, RR = remain red 2 I COMPANY REPORT I Studio Dragon 6 October 2020 Earnings & valuation PER valuation based on 2021F EPS: Target price of KRW120,000 Value Value Value 2020F EPS (KRW) 1,460 2021F EPS (KRW) 1,644 2022F EPS (KRW) 1,856 Target price (KRW) 110,000 Target price (KRW) 120,000 Target price (KRW) 140,000 Target PER (x) 73 Target PER (x) 73 Target PER (x) 73 Source: Shinhan Investment Corp. Note: Target PER is the past 3-year average PER. The company’s PER may drop sharply depending on the removal of China’s ban on Korean media contents. Original drama production deals other than Netflix may provide strong momentum. Earnings trend and outlook (K-IFRS consolidated) (bn KRW) 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20F 4Q20F 2018 2019 2020F 2021F <Earnings forecasts> Total revenue 79.9 74.3 123.7 101.7 111.8 128.2 131.2 97.4 120.3 161.4 144.3 133.3 379.5 468.6 559.1 618.6 Production revenue 40.7 34.1 48.9 54.4 44.1 58.1 60.8 45.7 45.2 65.4 69.5 51.1 178.1 208.7 231.1 262.0 Distribution revenue 32.1 28.8 63.4 37.8 56.2 60.3 60.0 42.7 66.9 75.7 62.7 72.7 162.1 219.2 278.0 308.0 Other (PPL) revenue 7.1 11.4 11.4 9.5 11.5 9.8 10.4 8.9 8.2 20.3 12.1 9.5 39.4 40.7 50.1 48.6 <Overseas operations> Overseas distribution revenue 22.7 16.5 46.2 24.8 42.6 42.2 43.9 31.6 52.8 59.4 45.0 60.4 110.2 160.4 217.6 244.7 Share in distribution revenue (%) 70.8 57.2 72.9 65.7 75.9 70.0 73.1 74.1 78.9 78.5 71.8 83.1 68.0 73.2 78.3 79.5 Netflix 10.0 1.0 32.0 3.6 8.3 23.0 24.0 6.0 24.5 36.0 26.0 32.0 46.6 61.3 118.5 139.0 Japan 3.5 4.5 3.4 4.3 10.3 5.9 3.2 5.8 8.3 6.1 3.6 6.4 15.7 25.2 24.4 25.6 Asia including China 8.9 10.5 10.4 14.3 21.6 12.7 11.3 17.3 17.4 14.9 12.8 19.3 44.1 63.0 64.4 68.5 China 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.8 0.0 0.0 Americas 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.5 5.2 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.6 1.9 8.6 9.8 11.1 Others 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 COGS 66.2 63.7 98.9 95.2 96.8 112.8 115.9 95.2 103.5 139.6 129.2 114.8 324.0 420.8 487.1 538.9 SG&A 3.0 3.3 3.3 6.0 4.0 4.6 4.4 6.2 5.1 4.9 5.0 7.3 15.7 19.2 22.3 23.9 OP 10.7 7.3 21.5 0.4 11.0 10.8 10.9 (4.0) 11.6 16.9 10.1 11.2 39.9 28.7 49.7 55.8 Pre-tax profit 10.8 11.0 22.0 1.7 13.2 11.9 13.1 (5.1) 12.0 17.2 11.4 12.5 45.6 33.1 53.1 59.2 NP 7.9 8.9 17.3 1.7 9.2 7.3 11.5 (1.7) 8.6 13.4 9.1 10.0 35.8 26.4 41.0 46.2 <% YoY growth> Sales 6.0 19.6 59.6 41.5 40.0 72.6 6.1 (4.2) 7.5 25.9 10.0 36.8 32.3 23.5 19.3 10.6 OP (23.7) (17.8) 223.0 (87.3) 3.5 47.5 (49.2) TR 5.5 56.3 (7.4) TB 20.9 (28.1) 73.4 12.2 NP (41.3) 216.8 206.3 (12.5) 17.2 (17.2) (33.6) TR (7.2) 82.1 (20.8) TB 50.2 (26.3) 55.3 12.6 <Margin, %> OPM 13.3 9.8 17.4 0.4 9.9 8.4 8.3 (4.1) 9.7 10.4 7.0 8.4 10.5 6.1 8.9 9.0 NPM 9.8 11.9 14.0 1.7 8.2 5.7 8.8 (1.7) 7.1 8.3 6.3 7.5 9.4 5.6 7.3 7.5 Source: Company data, Shinhan Investment Corp.
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