North American Natural Gas Market Dynamics: Coal-Fired Generation in North America – a Review
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Canadian Energy Research Institute North American Natural Gas Market Dynamics: Coal-fired Generation in North America – A Review Paul Kralovic Study No. 123 – Section III March 2011 Relevant • Independent • Objective NORTH AMERICAN NATURAL GAS MARKET DYNAMICS: COAL-FIRED GENERATION IN NORTH AMERICA – A REVIEW North American Natural Gas Market Dynamics: Coal-fired Generation in North America – A Review Copyright © Canadian Energy Research Institute, 2011 Sections of this study may be reproduced in magazines and newspapers with acknowledgement to the Canadian Energy Research Institute Study No. 123 – Section III ISBN 1-896091-97-0 Author: Paul Kralovic* *Paul Kralovic is an external consultant and is the Director of Calgary-based Kralovic Economics Inc. Acknowledgements: The author of this report would like to extend his thanks and gratitude to everyone involved in the production and editing of the material, including, but not limited to Megan Murphy and Peter Howard CANADIAN ENERGY RESEARCH INSITTUTE 150, 3512 – 33 Street NW Calgary, Alberta T2L 2A6 Canada www.ceri.ca March 2011 Printed in Canada North American Natural Gas Market Dynamics: iii Coal-fired Generation in North America – A Review Table of Contents LIST OF FIGURES .............................................................................................................................. v LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................................ vii COAL-FIRED GENERATION IN NORTH AMERICA – A REVIEW ........................................................... 1 Objective of the Study .................................................................................................................... 1 Background..................................................................................................................................... 2 Coal-fired Power Generation in the US .......................................................................................... 6 Coal-fired Power Generation in Canada ......................................................................................... 18 APPENDIX A EXISTING GENERATING UNITS OVER 100 MW IN THE US BY STATE, COMPANY, PLANT NAME, CAPACITY AND AGE OF UNIT ......................................... 33 APPENDIX B COAL POWER STATIONS IN CANADA BY PROVINCE, STATION NAME FIRST UNIT COMMISSIONED DATE, AGE AND INSTALLED CAPACITY ........................ 55 March 2011 iv Canadian Energy Research Institute March 2011 North American Natural Gas Market Dynamics: v Coal-fired Generation in North America – A Review List of Figures Figure 1.1 Proven Recoverable Coal Reserves at end-2009 by Region ............................................. 4 Figure 1.2 Top 5 Producers of Coal in the World (1999-2009) ......................................................... 5 Figure 1.3 Top 5 Consumers of Coal in the World (1999-2009) ........................................................ 6 Figure 1.4 Total (All Sectors) Net Generation Share by Energy Source Year-to-Date through November 2009 ............................................................................ 7 Figure 1.5 Total Cost Power Electricity Generation between 2001 and 2010 .................................. 9 Figure 1.6 Top 20 US States by Coal Power Electricity Generation in 2009 ...................................... 9 Figure 1.7 Top 20 US States by Number of Coal-fired Plants at end-2008 ....................................... 10 Figure 1.8 Top 20 US States by Coal Power Nameplate Capacity at end-2008 ................................. 11 Figure 1.9 Cumulative Total Cost Power Capacity in the US ............................................................. 12 Figure 1.10 Age and Size of Capacity of Coal-fired Power Units in the US ......................................... 14 Figure 1.11 Net Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2990-2035 ................................................................ 15 Figure 1.12 Coal Plant Retirements, Cumulative Total by State (50-years Life) ................................. 16 Figure 1.13 Planned Electric Generation Capacity Additions .............................................................. 17 Figure 1.14 Number of Planned Generators ....................................................................................... 18 Figure 1.15 Total Electricity Generation in Canada, 1990-2008 ......................................................... 19 Figure 1.16 Electricity Generation by Energy Source, 2008 ................................................................ 20 Figure 1.17 Electricity Generation by Energy Source, 1990-2008....................................................... 20 Figure 1.18 Installed Generating Capacity by Energy Source in Canadian Provinces, 2006 ............... 21 Figure 1.19 Coal-fired Electricity Generation in Canada, 1990-2008 .................................................. 22 Figure 1.20 Share of Coal-fired Electricity Generation Capacity in Canada by Province .................... 23 Figure 1.21 Cumulative Total Coal Power Capacity in Canada............................................................ 30 Figure 1.22 Coal Plant Retirements, Cumulative Total by Province (50-year Life) ............................. 31 March 2011 North American Natural Gas Market Dynamics: vii Coal-fired Generation in North America – A Review List of Tables Table 1.1 Top 10 Proven Recoverable Coal Reserves at end-2009 .................................................. 3 Table 1.2 Total Electric Power Industry Summary Statistics, Year-to-Date 2010 and 2009 ............ 8 Table 1.3 Top 10 Generating Units by State, Company and Plant, end-2008.................................. 12 Table 1.4 Top 10 Producers of Coal-fired Electricity in the US, 2005 .............................................. 13 Table 1.5 Top 5 Coal-fired Power Plants in Canada, 2011 ............................................................... 29 March 2011 viii Canadian Energy Research Institute March 2011 North America Natural Gas Market Dynamics: Coal-fired Generation in North America – A Review 1 North American Natural Gas Market Dynamics: Coal-fired Generation in North America – A Review Objective of the Study Coal power plants conjure up strong images for individuals and groups on both sides of a raging debate about the future of electricity generation and the environment. In June 2004, Ontario’s Premier McGuinty unveiled a bold plan to restructure the province’s electricity system.1 In spite of facing a growing gap between future supply and demand, Ontario’s Long Term Energy Plan (LTEP) proposed phasing out its coal-fired generation. Over six years later, as part of the Open Ontario Plan, an update of the LTEP, the province is moving steadily to permanently shut down all coal-fired generation by 2014—the single largest source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Ontario.2 In October 2010, 2 units at Nanticoke and 2 units at Lambton were permanently shut down.3 Between the aforementioned and the shut-down of the 4-unit Lakeview in 2005, Ontario suggests that their coal use has decreased by 70 percent.4 Similar movements are occurring in other jurisdictions in North America—and other parts of the world. Whether they are changes in national legislation and regulation, or state/provincial programs and initiatives promoting reductions in GHGs or increasing the use of various renewables, many jurisdictions are trying to discover the balance between minimizing environmental impacts and maintaining a modern, reliable electricity system. On the other side of the debate, the coal industry suggests that clean coal technology and the advent of other technologies make coal not only a cheap and reliable source of fuel, but a clean one as well. While coal-fired generation is mature and plays an important role, both in North America and globally, coal-fired technology is not stagnant. Technologies that offer cleaner coal options include: supercritical coal-fired generation, CO2/O2 5 6 combustion, CO2 capture and sequestration, beneficiation and Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC). This study focuses on North America and the current state of coal-fired generation in the United States and Canada. While not providing a synopsis of who is pulling and pushing in the debate to find a balance over energy production and the environment, this study reviews the role of coal-fired electricity generation now and what it may look like in the future. 1‘McGuinty Government Unveils Bold Plan to Restructure Electricity System’, News Release, Ontario Ministry of Energy, June 15, 2004. 2Government of Ontario, Newsroom, “Moving Ontario from Dirty Coal to a Clean Energy Future”, October 1, 2010, http://news.ontario.ca/mei/en/2010/10/moving-ontario-from-dirty-coal-to-a-clean-energy-future.html 3ibid 4“Ontario’s Long-term Energy Plan: Building Our Clean Energy Future”, Government of Ontario, 2010, pp. 3. 5Graham R. Campbell, “Clean Coal Developments in Canada Towards a Sustainable Energy Future”, NRCAN, presented at Nova Scotia’s Energy R&D Forum, May 24-25, 2006, pp. 10. 6“Coal-fired Power Generation: A Perspective” National Energy Board, July 2008, pp 3-4. March 2011 2 Canadian Energy Research Institute This study is divided into three sections: Background, Coal-fired Power Generation in the US and Coal-fired Power Generation in Canada. Before examining the current state of coal-fired generation in North America, it is prudent to first set North America in a global setting.