Model Documentation and Results for ERCOT Scenarios
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The Full Cost of Electricity (FCe-) Capacity Expansion and Dispatch Modeling: Model Documentation and Results for ERCOT Scenarios PART OF A SERIES OF WHITE PAPERS THE FULL COST OF ELECTRICITY is an interdisciplinary initiative of the Energy Institute of the University of Texas to identify and quantify the full-system cost of electric power generation and delivery – from the power plant to the wall socket. The purpose is to inform public policy discourse with comprehensive, rigorous and impartial analysis. The generation of electric power and the infrastructure that delivers it is in the midst of dramatic and rapid change. Since 2000, declining renewable energy costs, stringent emissions standards, low-priced natural gas (post-2008), competitive electricity markets, and a host of technological innovations promise to forever change the landscape of an industry that has remained static for decades. Heightened awareness of newfound options available to consumers has injected yet another element to the policy debate surrounding these transformative changes, moving it beyond utility boardrooms and legislative hearing rooms to everyday living rooms. The Full Cost of Electricity (FCe-) study employs a holistic approach to thoroughly examine the key factors affecting the total direct and indirect costs of generating and delivering electricity. As an interdisciplinary project, the FCe- synthesizes the expert analysis and different perspectives of faculty across the UT Austin campus, from engineering, economics, law, and policy. In addition to producing authoritative white papers that provide This paper is one in comprehensive assessment and analysis of various electric power a series of Full Cost system options, the study team developed online calculators that allow of Electricity white policymakers and other stakeholders, including the public, to estimate papers that examine the cost implications of potential policy actions. A framework of the particular aspects of research initiative, and a list of research participants and project sponsors the electricity system. are also available on the Energy Institute website: energy.utexas.edu Other white papers All authors abide by the disclosure policies of the University of Texas at produced through the Austin. The University of Texas at Austin is committed to transparency and study can be accessed disclosure of all potential conflicts of interest. All UT investigators involved at the University of Texas with this research have filed their required financial disclosure forms with Energy Institute website: the university. Through this process the university has determined that energy.utexas.edu there are neither conflicts of interest nor the appearance of such conflicts. Capacity Expansion and Dispatch Modeling: Model Documentation and Results for ERCOT Scenarios Neal Mann, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Cockrell School of Engineering Chen-Hao Tsai, Bureau of Economic Geology’s Center for Energy Economics, Jackson School of Geosciences Gürcan Gülen, Bureau of Economic Geology’s Center for Energy Economics, Jackson School of Geosciences Erich Schneider, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Cockrell School of Engineering Pedro Cuevas, McCombs School of Business Jim Dyer, McCombs School of Business John Butler, McCombs School of Business Tong Zhang, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Cockrell School of Engineering Ross Baldick, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Cockrell School of Engineering Thomas Deetjen, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Cockrell School of Engineering Rachel Morneau, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Cockrell School of Engineering Mann, Neal, Tsai, Chen-Hao, Gülen, Gürcan, Schneider, Erich, Cuevas, Pedro, Dyer, Jim, Butler, John, Zhang, Tong, Baldick, Ross, Deetjen, Thomas, Morneau, Rachel, “Capacity Expansion and Dispatch Modeling: Model Documentation and Results for ERCOT Scenarios” White Paper UTEI/2017-4-14, 2017, available at http://energy.utexas.edu/the-full-cost-of-electricity-fce/. The Full Cost of Electricity (FCe-) Model Documentation and Results for ERCOT Scenarios, July 2017 | iii TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables ................................................................................................................................................................................................ v List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................................................................. vi List of Acronyms .........................................................................................................................................................................................vii Capacity Expansion and Dispatch Modeling ..............................................................................................................................................1 Long-Term Capacity Expansion Scenarios ...............................................................................................................................................20 Long-Term Capacity Expansion Results ...................................................................................................................................................29 2030 Hourly Dispatch Results ...................................................................................................................................................................38 Conclusions and Future Work ...................................................................................................................................................................41 References .................................................................................................................................................................................................42 Appendix A: ERCOT Plant Database for End-of-Year 2015 .......................................................................................................................44 Appendix B: LCOE, LACE, and Net Value ...................................................................................................................................................53 Appendix C: Wind Rating Factors by Aggregate County (%) ...................................................................................................................56 Appendix D: ERCOT Hardwired Plant Additions for the CT Scenario .......................................................................................................58 Appendix E: ERCOT Hardwired Plant Additions for the AR Scenario (in addition to the CT scenario) ...................................................59 The Full Cost of Electricity (FCe-) Model Documentation and Results for ERCOT Scenarios, July 2017 | iv LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Key Differences across Four Models ............................................................................................................................................10 Table 2 Resource Capacity by Fuel Type and Primary Mover ....................................................................................................................11 Table 3 Fuels Included in Modeling ..........................................................................................................................................................12 Table 4 Wind Rating Factors by Load Zone (%) ........................................................................................................................................14 Table 5 Distribution of Solar Resources in ERCOT ....................................................................................................................................15 Table 6 Solar Rating Factors by Region (%) ..............................................................................................................................................16 Table 7 Capacities for Combined Heat and Power Plants in ERCOT ..........................................................................................................17 Table 8 Monthly Maximum Capacity Factors for Hydroelectric Generators in ERCOT ................................................................................18 Table 9 Key Long-Term Capacity Expansion Scenario Assumptions ..........................................................................................................20 Table 10 Overnight Capital Expenditures by Generation Technology [$2015/kW], adapted from ERCOT (2015e) .........................................23 Table 11 Financial Parameters for Calculating Base Capital Carrying Cost for Potential New Resources .....................................................25 Table 12 Levelized Investment Tax Credit for Solar PV Facilities [$/MW-Week) ...........................................................................................25 Table 13 Retrofit Costs for Coal Power Plants ($/MW-Week). .....................................................................................................................26 Table 14 Retrofit Costs Assignment based on ERCOT (2011) ......................................................................................................................27 Table 15 Summary of Resources under the Two Scenarios (MW) with AURORAxmp ...................................................................................29 Table 16 Summary of Resources under the Two Scenarios