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Control Number: 27706 Item Number: 1 75 Addendum StartPage : 0 PROJECT NO. 27706 REPORTS OF THE ELECTRIC § PUBLIC UTILITY COMMISSION RELIABILITY COUNCIL OF TEXAS § OF TEXAS ELECTRIC RELIABILITY COUNCIL OF TEXAS, INC.'S DECEMBER 2009 REPORT ON CAPACITY, DEMAND AND RESERVES IN THE ERCOT REGION COMES NOW, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, Inc. (ERCOT) and files its December 2009 Report on Capacity, Demand and Reserves in the ERCOT Region. ERCOT's report is attached hereto as Attachment A. Respectfully submitted, (2'lYVyc 6ek Lori Cobos Associate Corporate Counsel Texas Bar No. 24042276 (512) 225-7073 (Phone) (512) 225-7079 (Fax) lcobosnercot.com ATTORNEY FOR THE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY COUNCIL OF TEXAS 000001 1 i0 Attachment A Report on the Capacity, Demand and Reserves in the ERCOT Region December 2009 000002 Contents Tab Notes . :. .•.^ 1 4^•a^.v Please read Definitions List of definitions -0 0 .11 _P C^ran "=^tI Lists changes from prior report ^ -`;, Shows load forecast , generation resources, and reserve margin for summer ummSemmaryer x^ ',^ 2010 through summer 2015 Lists units and their capabilities used in determining the generation resources in SummerCapacities , the Summer Summary 000003 CDR WORKING PAPER FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY This ERCOT Working Paper has been prepared for specific ERCOT and market participant purposes and has been developed from data provided by ERCOT market participants. The data may contain errors or become obsolete and thereby affect the conclusions and opinions of the Working Paper. ERCOT MAKES NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE, AND DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ACCURACY OF SAME OR THE FITNESS OR APPROPRIATENESS OF SAME FOR ANY PARTICULAR USE. THIS ERCOT WORKING PAPER IS SUPPLIED WITH ALL FAULTS. The specific suitability for any use of the Working Paper and its accuracy should be confirmed by each ERCOT market participant that contributed data for this Working Paper. This Working Paper is based on data submitted by ERCOT market participants as part of their Annual Load Data Request (ALDR) and their resource asset registration. As such, this data is updated on an ongoing basis, which means that this report can be rendered obsolete without notice. 000004 2009 Report on the Capacity, Demand, and Reserves in the ERCOT Region Summer Summary (December Update) Load Forecast: 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total Summer Peak Demand, MW 64,056 65,494 67,394 69,399 70,837 72,172 less LaaRs Serving as Responsive Reserve, MW 1,115 1,115 1,115 1,115 1,115 1,115 less LaaRs Serving as Non-Spinning Reserve, MW 0 0 0 0 0 0 less BULs, MW 0 0 0 0 0 0 less Energy Efficiency Programs (per HB3693) 242 242 242 242 242 242 Firm Load Forecast, MW 62,699 64,137 66,037 68,042 69,480 70,815 Resources: 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 Installed Capacity, MW 64,940 64,940 64,940 64,940 64,940 64,940 Capacity from Private Use Networks, MW - 5,318 5,343 5,343 5,343 5,343 5,343 Effective Load-Carrying Capability (ELCC) of Wind Generation, MW 776 776 776 776 776 776 RMR Units to be under Contract, MW 627 0 0 0 0 0 Operational Generation, MW 71,660 71,058 71,058 71,058 71,058 71,058 50% of DC-Ties, MW 553 553 553 553 553 553 Switchable Resources, MW 2,848 2,848 2,848' 2,848 2,848 2,848 Available Mothballed Generation, MW 104 157 157 157 157 157 Planned Units (not wind) with Signed IA and Air Permit, MW 1,329 2,212 3,237 3,237 3,237 3,237 ELCC of Planned Wind Units with Signed IA, MW 26 69 142- 164 164 164 Total Resources, MW 76,521 76,897 77,995 78,017 78,017 78,017 less Switchable Resources Unavailable to ERCOT, MW 158 0 0 0 0 0 less Retiring Units, MW 0 0 0 0 0 0 Resources, MW 76,363 76,897 77,995 78,017 78,017 78,017 Reserve Margin 21.8% 19.9% 18.1% 14.7% 12.3% 10.2% (Resources - Firm Load Forecast)/Firm Load Forecast Other Potential Resources: 6,357 12,258 19,457 21,051 23,992 24,035 Remaining Mothballed Capacity, MW 3,053 3,001 3,001 3,001 3,001 3,001 553 50% of DC-Ties, MW 553 553 553 553 553 Planned Units in Full Interconnection Study Phase, MW 2,751 8,704 15,903 17,497 20,438 20,482 * According to the Board-approved CDR methodology, a planned generator is included in the reserves calculation if it has obtained a signed interconnection agreement and air permit However, one generator which meets these criteria has provided a formal letter from a corporate officer to ERCOT stating that, based on its current expectations, its planned 1,792 MW unit that had requested interconnection beginning in 2013 should not be included in the reserves calculation Therefore, that unit has been excluded 00000,5 2009 Report on.the Capacity, Demand,-and Reserves in the ERCC?T..Region Summer Summary (December Update) MW Summer Loads and Resources 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ^Firm Load Forecast -m-Resources OOOOU6 Unit Capacities - Summer Units used in determining the generation resources in the Summer Summary Operational capacities are based on unit testing. Other capacities are based on information provided by the plant owners This list includes MW available to the gnd from private network (self-serve) units It also includes distributed generabon units that have registered with ERCOT. Data without unit names are for private network units or are planned generation that is not public Unit Name Unit Code County Fuel CM Zone 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Avon Rosenberg 1-CT1 BRAUNIG_AVR1_CTt Bexar Gas South 145.0 145 0 1450 145.0 1450 1450 Avon Rosenberg 1-CT2 BRAUNIG_AVR1_CT2 Bexar Gas South 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 A von Rosenberg 1-ST1 BRAUNIG_AVR1ST Bexar Gas South 160.0 1600 160.0 1600 160.0 160.0 AEDOMG 1 DG_SUMMI_1 UNIT Travis Gas South 50 50 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 AES Deepwater APD_APD_G1 Harris Other South 138.0 1380 138.0 138.0 138.0 138.0 Amistad Hydro 1 AMISTAD_AMISTAG1 Val Verde Hydro South 38.0 380 380 380 38.0 38.0 38.0 Amistad Hydro 2 AMISTAD_AMISTAG2 Val Verde Hydro South 38.0 380 38.0 380 38.0 10.1 Atascodta I _HB_DG1 Harris Biomass Houston 10.1 10.1 101 10.1 10.1 Atkins 7 ATKINS ATKINSG7 Brazos Gas North 20.0 200 20.0 200 20.0 200 8.0 Austin 1 AUSTPL AUSTING1 Travis Hydro South 80 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 9.0 Austin 2 AUSTPL_AUSTING2 Travis Hydro South 9.0 9.0 9.0 90 90 Austin Landfill Gas DG_SPRIN_4UNITS Travis Other South 64 64 64 6.4 6.4 6.4 335.0 B M Davis 1 B_DAVIS_B_DAVIGI Nueces Gas South 3350 3350 335.0 3350 335.0 344.0 B M Davis 2 BDAVIS_B_DAVIG2 Nueces Gas South 3440 3440 344.0 3440 344.0 190.0 B M Davis 3 B_DAVIS_B_DAVIG3 Nueces Gas South 190.0 1900 1900 190.0 1900 190.0 B M Davis 4 B_DAVIS_B_DAVIG4 Nueces Gas South 190 0 1900 190.0 1900 1900 Bastrop Energy Center 1 BASTEN_GTG1100 Bastrop Gas South 152.0 152.0 152.0 1520 152.0 152.0 150.0 Bastrop Energy Center 2 BASTEN_GTG2100 Bastrop Gas South 150.0 150.0 1500 1500 150.0 233.0 Bastrop Energy Center 3 BASTEN_ST0100 Bastrop Gas South 2330 2330 233.0 233.0 2330 3.9 39 Baytown I TRN_DG1 Chambers Biomass Houston 39 3.9 3.9 39 617.0 6170 Big Brown 1 BBSES_UNIT1 Freestone Coal North 617.0 617.0 6170 617.0 615.0 615.0 Big Brown 2 BBSES_UNIT2 Freestone Coal North 615.0 6150 615.0 615.0 5.6 5.6 Bio Energy Partners DG_BIOE_2UNITS Denton Gas North 56 5.6 56 5.6 3.9 3.9 Bluebonnet I _LB_DG1 Hams Biomass Houston 39 39 3.9 39 1530 Bosque County Peaking 1 BOSQUESW_BSQSU_1 Bosque Gas North 1530 1530 1530 1530 1530 153.0 1530 Bosque County Peaking 2 BOSQUESW_BSQSU_2 Bosque Gas North 1530 153.0 1530 1530 154.0 154.0 Bosque County Peaking 3 BOSQUESW_BSQSU_3 Bosque Gas North 1540 154.0 154.0 1540 83.0 Bosque County Peaking 4 BOSQUESW_BSQSU_4 Bosque Gas North 83.0 830 83.0 83.0 830 2400 240.0 Bosque County Unit 5 BOSQUESW BSQSU_5 Bosque Gas North 2400 240.0 2400 240.0 163.0 163.0 Brazos Valley 1 BVE_Until Ft Bend Gas Houston 1630 1630 163.0 1630 1630 Brazos Valley 2 BVE_Unit2 Ft Bend Gas Houston 163.0 163.0 163.0 1630 1630 253.0 2530 Brazos Valley 3 BVE_Unit3 Ft Bend Gas Houston 253 0 2530 253.0 253 0 180 18.0 18.0 Buchanan l BUCHAN_BUCHANGI Llano Hydro South 180 18.0 180 180 180 Buchanan 2 BUCHANBUCHANG2 Llano Hydro South 180 18.0 180 180 18.0 180 18.0 Buchanan 3 BUCHAN_BUCHANG3 Llano Hydro South 18.0 180 180 750 75.0 Calenergy (Falcon Seaboard) I FLCNS_UNIT1 Howard Gas West 75.0 75.0 75.0 750 75.0 750 Calenergy (Falcon Seaboard) 2 FLCNS_UNIT2 Howard Gas West 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 70.0 70.0 700 Calenergy (Falcon Seaboard) 3 FLCNS_UNIT3 Howard Gas West 70.0 700 700 3.0 30 Canyon 1 CANYHY_CANYHYG1 Comet Hydro South 3.0 3.0 3.0 30 3.0 3.0 3.0 Canyon 2 CANYHY_CANYHYG2 Connell Hydro South 3.0 30 3.0 745.0 745.0 745.0 Cedar Bayou 1 CBY_CBY_G1 Chambers Gas Houston 745.0 7450 745.0 7490 7490 Cedar Bayou 2 CBY_CBY_G2 Chambers Gas Houston 7490 7490 749.0 7490 1690 169.0 1690 Cedar Bayou 4 CBY4_CT41 Chambers Gas Houston 169.0 169.0 1690 169.0 169.0 169.0 Cedar Bayou 5 CBY4_CT42 Chambers Gas Houston 169.0 169.0 1690 1800 1800 180.0 Cedar Bayou 6 CBY4_ST04 Chambers Gas Houston 180.0 1800 1800 182.0 182.0 Channel Energy Deepwater CHEDPW_GT2 Harris Gas Houston 1820 1820 182.0 182.0 6.7 67 6.7 Coastal Plains RDF _AV_DG7 Galveston Biomass South 6.7 6.7 67 632.0 632.0 632.0 Coleto Creek COLETO_COLETOG1 Goliad Coal South 632.0 632.0 6320 77.0 77 0 770 Colorado Bend Energy Center CBEC_GTt Wharton Gas Houston 77 0 770 77.0 77.0 770 770 Colorado Bend Energy Center CBEC GT2 Wharton Gas Houston 770 770 77.0 77.0 770 77.0 Colorado Bend Energy Center CBEC_GT3 Wharton Gas Houston 77.0 77.0 77.0 77 0 77.0 77 0 Colorado Bend Energy Center CBEC_GT4 Wharton Gas Houston