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Power, Politics, and Violence in Post- Colonial Africa. a Comparative Study of Electoral Violence in Kenya, Nigeria and Zimbabwe 1960-2008

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Power, Politics, and Violence in Post- Colonial Africa. a Comparative Study of Electoral Violence in Kenya, Nigeria and Zimbabwe 1960-2008 Power, Politics, and Violence in Post- Colonial Africa. A Comparative Study of Electoral Violence in Kenya, Nigeria and Zimbabwe 1960-2008. Candidate: Michelle René Small Candidate Number: 9902206X Supervisor: Dr Jacqueline De Matos-Ala Submitted in fulfillment of the academic requirements towards a degree in Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in International Relations, Faculty of Humanities, University of the Witwatersrand, December 2017. 1 Student Declaration This is to certify that this thesis has been prepared by: Michelle René Small Candidate number 9902206X towards the degree of: Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in International Relations Entitled: Power, Politics and Electoral Violence in Post-Colonial Africa: A Comparative Study of Electoral Violence in Kenya, Nigeria and Zimbabwe 1960 – 2008. It is the candidate’s own unaided work. No part of this thesis has been copied, plagiarized or cited without due acknowledgement. Signature: Date: 18/12/17 2 Dedication For my parents. 3 Acknowledgements It has been a very long and bumpy PhD road! Very special thanks must go to my supervisor and colleague, Dr Jacqueline De Matos Ala for getting me over the finish line. Your unwavering patience and belief in me over the past 14 years has kept me from veering off the academic path. Thank you. To Professor John Stremlau, thank you for your continued mentorship, belief and support. Thanks also to a number of colleagues for making sure this thesis gets done: Prof Gilbert Khadiagala, Prof Rod Alence, Prof Shahid Vawda, Prof Mucha Musemwa and Prof Ruksana Osman. I could not have completed the fieldwork component of this research without the financial support of the Commonwealth Scholarships Commission, and the earlier academic guidance of Professor Patrick Chabal. A number of archivists pointed me in the right direction and offered invaluable assistance. Thank you to Hilary McEwan, archivist and records management officer at the Commonwealth Secretariat, Marlborough House; and Lucy McCann, archivist at Bodleian Library of Commonwealth & African Studies, Rhodes House, University of Oxford. Finally, for their sacrifice, steadfast support, encouragement, and belief in me, my deepest thanks to my parents, Keith and Charmaine Small. You have changed the course of our family’s history and I am forever grateful to you both for choosing a different path, and for giving me a different life. For your patience– thank you Nesh Dinat. And to my purpose in life, Cesária Small, I endeavour to keep striving, trying and learning. 4 Abstract Election violence has been identified as one of the new sources of conflict in Africa, demonstrating resilience rather than transience. Lack of theorization about election violence means that it remains poorly understood as a phenomenon which has consequences in terms of policy formulation and the more practical task of ‘prediction and prevention’. Due to the number of multivariate factors which are present and interact to produce electoral violence, previous attempts at theorizing often result in the problem of equifinality. This study examines the historical and contemporaneous conditions and causes of election violence in Kenya, Nigeria and Zimbabwe from Independence to 2008, a coinciding and ascendant violent election year. The study attempts to locate, identify and trace conditions and causes of election violence, and establish a trajectory and sequence of events that produce election violence, over time, across the three case studies. Comparative case study research of this kind allows for a bounded and in- depth study of causal inference of the select phenomenon over time. A central research question that guides this study is, why do some elections display recurrent violence? The qualitative study takes a historical ‘past-in-the-present’ approach to understanding a manifest contemporary problem by using archival sources, election observer reports, and elite interviewing. Thematic content analysis of themes derived such as ‘election/vote’ ‘violence/protest/uprising/riot’ ‘rigging/fraud’ ‘corruption/vote buying/patronage’ ‘ethnicity’ ‘youth’ ‘land’ ‘resources’ ‘youth wing/militia/gang’, guide the gathering and analysis of the data. The main findings of the research are threefold. Firstly, election violence results predominantly due to elite factionalism and elite disputes whereby elections (process, institutions, campaign and supporters) are politicized. This may take the form of political elites declaring themselves the winner ahead of results being announced; political elites inciting/arming/stoking violence via youth wings, militias, or amongst supporter branches; political elites utilizing inflammatory rhetoric during electoral campaigns; and/or political elites disputing the electoral process, institutions or the final result. Elites are thus a significant factor in election violence. Secondly, election violence results whereby the electoral process and associated state and electoral institutions have been compromised or interfered with such as the political appointment of national electoral commission chairs, members and judges; the partisan deployment of the police and security agencies to repress/intimidate/hinder political competition; the ‘tweaking’ of election results or voter turnout; the enactment of restrictive laws; hegemony of state media; and the allotment of 5 state resources that favour partisan/incumbent sources. Thirdly, election violence results whereby patronage and/or corruption intersect and interact with elites and institutions in producing a violent outcome. This may take the form of buying off/rewarding voters, buying off/rewarding youth militias or violent outfits; buying off/rewarding political patrons. Only certain conditions are significant in the causal change in producing violent electoral outcomes, some such as ethnicity or identity, and land demonstrate durability across the case studies, while others such as unemployment or hunger or inflation are periodically germane. The outlook on election violence in Africa is bleak: in 2017, 6 out of 11 African states that have held elections thus far have been marred by some level of violence. The need to ‘predict and prevent’ the proliferation of this new form of conflict, and work against it becoming a norm, is pressing. This necessarily demands theorizing, knowledge building, and establishing where along the causal chain election violence is likely to break out so that targeted and lasting interventions can occur. Keywords Elections, Election Violence, Patronage, Elites, Institutions, Youth, Militias/Gangs 6 Acronyms Action Congress of Nigeria’s (ACN) Action Group (AG) Advanced Congress of Democrats (ACD) All People’s Congress (APC) Arab Zanzibar Nationalist Party (ZNP) African People’s Party (APP) African Union (AU) Afro-Shirazi Party (ASP) Conventions People’s Party (CPP) Election Observer Mission (EOM) Electoral Monitoring Body (EMB) European Union (EU) Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) Forum Party of Zimbabwe (FPZ) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Kenya Party for National Unity (KANU) Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) Mouvement National Pour Le Revolution (MNR) National Convention of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) National Liberation Movement (NLM) National Resistance Movement (NRM) Nigerian People’s Congress (NPC) Northern People’s Congress (NPC) Organisation for African Unity (OAU) Patriotic Front (PF) People’s Democratic Party (PDP) Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) United Nations (UN) Union des Populations Camerounaises (UPC) 7 United Progressive Grand Alliance (UPGA) United Party for National Development (UPND) United National African Council (UANC) United National Federal Party (UNFP) Zimbabwe African National Union (ZANU) Zimbabwe’s United People’s Organization (ZUP) Zimbabwe African People’s Union (ZAPU) Zimbabwe Unity Movement (ZUM) Zimbabwe Congress Party (ZCP) Zimbabwe Federal Party (ZFP) Zimbabwe Aristocrats (ZA) British South Africa Company (BSAC) Zimbabwe African National Liberation Army (ZANLA) Zimbabwe People’s Revolution Army (ZIPRA) Zimbabwe Congress Party (ZCP) Zimbabwe Federal Party (ZFP) Zimbabwe Aristocrats (ZA) 8 Table of Contents Title Page p.1 Student Declaration p.2 Dedication p.3 Acknowledgments p.4 Abstract pp.5-6 Acronyms pp.7-8 Table of Contents pp.9-10 Chapter 1: Introduction pp.11-41 1.1 Literature Review: Elections and Election Violence in Africa 1.2 Problem Statement & Knowledge Gap 1.3 Research Question & Aims 1.4 Significance of the Study 1.5 Research Design 1.5.1 Methodology 1.5.2 Sources/Data 1.5.3 Limitations 1.6 Discussion of Chapters Chapter 2: Conceptual Framework: “On Violence” Power, Politics and Violence in Africa pp.42-88 2.1 The Iron Fist 2.2 The Velvet Glove 2.3 Power, Politics and Political Violence in Africa 2.3.1 The Colonial State: Arbitrary Autocrats 2.3.2 Elections and Participation in Colonial Africa 2.3.3 The Post-Colonial State 2.4 Conceptual Framework of ‘Weak States’ Chapter 3: Empirical Overview of Election Violence in Post-Colonial Africa pp.89-121 3.1 The Interregnum & ‘First’ Elections in Post-Colonial Africa 3.2 Semi-Competitive ‘No Choice’ Elections in Post-Colonial Africa 3.3 The Third Wave: Democratisation By Elections in Post-Colonial Africa 3.4 Looking Ahead: Elections and Election Violence on the Continent Today Chapter 4: Kenya “It’s Our Turn to Eat”. Land, Elites, Ethnic Politics and Election Violence 1963-2007 pp.122-171 4.1 Historical Overview of Power and Politics 4.2 Historical Overview of Elections and Election Violence
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