Happy 2008! Last Year, We Highlighted Trends Like

Home , Monocle (brand), Wallstrip

more brands will realize (if not grudgingly accept) that 'old', mass- era status symbols, from the Audi R8 to the De Beers Talisman Watch Collection are no longer every consumer's wet dream. After all, as mature consumer societies are increasingly dominated by (physical) abundance, by saturation, by experiences, by virtual worlds, by individualism, by participation, by feelings of guilt and concern about the side effects of unbridled consumption, status is Happy 2008! to be had in many more ways than leading a lifestyle centered on Last year, we highlighted trends like (STILL) MADE HERE, FE- hoarding as many branded, luxury goods as possible. MALE FEVER, TRANSPARENCY TYRANNY, TRYSUMERS and more. To get you going this year, here are 8 trends to make the We've dubbed the above phenomenon STATUS SPHERES: a most of 2008. And yes, more to follow in the months to come ;-) variety of lifestyles, activities and persuasions, which can be mixed and matched by consumers looking for recognition from various crowds and scenes. Getting too vague? Here are some STATUS SPHERES to keep an eye out for in the next 12 months:

Traditional consumption is about buying more and/or better stuff than fellow consumers. Which is by no means dead. In fact, expect the consumer arena in 2008 to still be about hundreds of millions of consumers who do want to consume more, who do covet all things bling, who do crave in-your-face brands. Oh, and even if (a big if*) conspicuous consumption were ever to subside Let's start this Trend Briefing by looking back. At the beginning of in mature consumer societies, then count on the emerging middle 2007, as part of our STATUS LIFESTYLES trend, we wrote: classes in China,** India, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, Nigeria, Vietnam, Indonesia, Mexico and Brazil to proudly take over the "Here's something trend watchers, CMOs and other business torch. In other words, count on multiple consumption and status professionals should be able to agree on: in the end, when arenas to develop simultaneously for years to come. dealing with (and selling to) people, everything always comes back to status. In a traditional consumer society, he or she However, while the rise of the global middle class is as big a story who consumes the most, the best, the coolest, the most ex- as they come, the rise of high net worth individuals (HNWIs) has pensive, the scarcest or the most popular goods, will typi- an equally significant impact on consumerism. Consider the fol- cally also gain the most status." lowing numbers, from the 2007 World Wealth Report by Merrill Lynch and Capgemini: Now, you guessed it: the above still rings true in 2008, and should be on your mind whenever/wherever -- when tracking trends, • The number of HNWIs—individuals with net assets of at when mapping out new strategies and when coming up with new least USD 1 million, excluding their primary residence products and services for your customers. In fact, this year, even You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Briefings. More at: www.trendwatching.com 1 / 22 and consumables—in the world increased 8.3% to 9.5 million. • The number of ultra-HNWIs—individuals with net assets Attractive to consumers who are driven by experiences instead of of at least USD 30 million, excluding their primary resi- the fixed—those who are driven by entertainment, by discovery, dence and consumables—grew by 11.3% to 94,970. by fighting boredom, who increasingly live a transient lifestyle, • The BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China) con- freeing themselves from the hassles of permanent ownership and tinue to play increasingly important roles in the global possessions. economy. China and Russia were among the top ten countries with the fastest growing HNWI populations. We dubbed these consumers TRANSUMERS about a year ago, Chinaʼs HNWI population grew by 7.8% to 345,000 peo- and the trend is still building. Implications for 2008? An obsession ple and Russiaʼs has increased by 15.5% to 119,000. with the here and now, an ever-shorter satisfaction span, and a Brazil (120,000 HNWIs) and India (100,000 HNWIs) also lust to collect as many experiences and stories as possible, is showed continued strength. undermining the perceived value (and thus status) of fixed goods With so much (new) wealth and disposable income around the and services. More practical examples in SNACK CULTURE world, not only is there money to be made from selling premium (trend # 3) below. goods, thereʼs also a constant need for redefining what constitutes luxury, for what constitutes status in bling-driven consumer societies. If millions have access to the same premium goods, to the same premium brands, these premium offerings lose some of their value, as their entire raison dʼêtre was to offer something that oth- Where to begin? In an online world or virtual world, social status ers could not get access to. Scarcity is becoming less scarce and 2.0 is all about who you connect to and who wants to connect to wealth is always relative, leading to actual STATUS DESPAIR you, tribal-style. It also encompasses status gained from the num- among those who are by all means, financially well off. ber of views for one's photos on Flickr, to the number of friends on Facebook, to one's gaming skills and levels (just a snippet: Micro- So in an arena that has become crowded with middle class and soft's Halo 3 racked up USD 170 million in sales on its first day of high net worth consumers, expect luxury goods to take on more availability, making it the hottest-selling title in video game his- outlandish forms and shapes, at ever-higher costs. Our most re- tory. Total sales since September 2007: 4+ million copies) to the cent favorite example of STATUS DESPAIR was Prince Alwaleed good looks of one's avatar, to finding out about whatever/wherever bin Talal bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud of Saudi Arabia buying himself a on anything before anyone else does. More on this in ONLINE USD 320 million Airbus 380, which for another USD 100+ million OXYGEN (trend # 4) below. will be turned into a 'flying palace' with three bedrooms, private lounges, bathrooms, offices, a steam bath and exercise machines. But even here, commoditization is threatening the Prince's purchase: Airbus actually expects to sell about 20 VIP versions of the A380. With the environment finally on the agenda of most powers that be, and millions of consumers now actively trying to greenify their * As weʼve pointed out many times before, one mistake both trend lives, status in the eco-sphere is both more readily available, and watchers and brands make all the time, is to assume or pretend increasing in value. A substantial subset of consumers is already that a certain ʻtrendʼ will affect or be embraced by ALL consumers. bestowing recognition and praise on Prius drivers while scorning No. Remember, in life and in trends: beauty (or ugliness) is in the SUV owners, and this will only accelerate as even more design- eye of the beholder. minded and branding-savvy eco-firms push to the forefront in 2008. Make it green, make it effortless, make it visible if not bold if ** The Chinese middle class consists of those people who have a not iconic, and don't hesitate to point out your competitor's pollut- degree of economic independence, but not a great deal of social ing alternatives ;-) For more on this, see ECO-ICONIC (trend #5) influence or power. The term often encompasses merchants and below. professionals, bureaucrats, and some farmers and skilled workers. Definition of middle class in China: managers, professionals, skilled technicians and service workers earning USD 2,500 to USD 10,000 a year each. It is expected to grow from 100 million Find us one high-profile billionaire who's not deeply into 'giving' people in 2005 to 200 million people by 2010, reaching 315 million right now. In fact, whether it's giving away your riches, your time, by 2015. (Source: Insight Bureau.) or sharing your (content) creations with total strangers, giving is the new taking. For an excellent overview of the world's most gen- Luckily, before we reach total STATUS DESPAIR, there's still erous philanthropists (trendsetters par excellence!), check out plenty of room for innovation in the traditional sphere: check BusinessWeek's recent special on the topic. For brand implica- PREMIUMIZATION (trend # 2) below. tions, see BRAND BUTLERS (trend #6) below.

You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Briefings. More at: www.trendwatching.com 2 / 22 Especially for younger (and younger-at-heart) consumers, participation is the new consumption. For these creative beings, status comes from finding an appreciative audience, which is much the same way brands operate. No wonder that it's becoming increasingly important to hone one's creative skills. Status symbols, make way for STATUS SKILLS? What's going to be your participation strategy for 2008? See also trends #7 and 8 in this briefing: MYI | MAKE IT YOURSELF and CROWD MINING.

One thing you can't go wrong with this year is to ask yourself how your current and new products and experiences will satisfy an audience of very diverse status seekers. If you haven't done so already, get rid of the habit of only focusing on traditional status London's St. Pancras International railway station is now home to symbols, and you will find there is no end to the number of Europe's longest champagne bar (96 meters) STATUS SPHERES you'll be able to identify. Definitely part of the 'traditional sphere', PREMIUMIZATION is not going to go away in 2008. Basically, with more wealth burning holes in (saturated and experienced) consumers' pockets than ever before, quick status fixes derived from premium products and premium experiences will continue in full force next year.

What's new then? How about 2008 being about the PREMIUMI- ZATION of everything and anything. In other words, no industry, no sector, no product will escape a premium version in the next 12 months. Some poignant PREMIUMIZATION examples for that sign of the times feeling:

Enjoy these free brieﬁngs? Then, you will love our 2OO9 Trend Report

• OK, so we've done wine, coffee and tea, which leaves water to get its much-deserved PREMIUMIZATION moment. And we don't mean of the Pellegrino or Perrier kind: those 'upgraded' bottled water brands have become More at www.trendwatching.com/trendreport too mainstream to excite truly premium-obsessed con- » sumers (who don't care about carbon footprints, but we'll get back to that later on). So make way for Evian's limited release Palace bottle, only available in high end bars and restaurants. Features a specially designed pouring top

You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Briefings. More at: www.trendwatching.com 3 / 22 and is accompanied by a stainless steel coaster, selling • Get ready to welcome honey to the world of PREMIUMI- for USD 15-20 per bottle. ZATION. Most supermarket honey is imported from • Bling H20 is bottled water that comes in limited edition, China and Argentina, and/or blended from many sources, corked, 750 ml frosted glass bottles, embellished with creating a homogenous taste. But, like water, marshmal- Swarovski crystals. Established in 2005 by a Hollywood lows, and beer, honey is now striking back with a sweet writer-producer who noticed that “you could tell a lot vengeance, and artisanal honeys are on the rise. Since about a person by the bottled water that they carried,” honey's flavor and color are determined by the source of Bling H20 is designed to be as much a fashion accessory nectar, there's a huge variety of very local and exclusive as a drink of water. Aiming to be the Cristal of bottled types of honey, with floral sources varying from tupelo water, it's been spotted at everything from the MTV gum tree and Tasmanian leatherwood to cranberry and Awards to the Emmys. The bottles cost from USD 17– orange blossom. The Savannah Bee Company, for ex- 480. ample, sells its honeycomb jars with this awe-inspiring • Tasmanian Rain is captured "on the pristine north west description: "Filled with honey equaling the life's work of coast of the island of Tasmania, Australia." The water is two bees, each golden cell brims with the concentrated collected "just minutes from where the World Meteoro- nectar of thousands of rare and remote Georgia flowers.“ logical Organization records the world's purest air." As In New York, the Blue Ribbon Bakery Market has in- this rain has traveled eastward via air currents over Ant- stalled a honey bar, selling imported raw honey from arctica and 10,000 miles of ocean, it contains 17 parts Mexico. Seasonal (read: limited time only) varieties in- per million of dissolved solids. Tasmanian Rain is col- clude mesquite blossom, orange blossom and golden lected by a custom-designed catchment facility and never reserve. Also emphasizing the unique flavors of different touches the ground. And so on. varieties, Bee Raw Honey sells sets of honey samples, packaging the liquid gold in test-tubes that are corked and hand-sealed with beeswax.

• Carlsberg 900 (which doesn't have its own website) launched this summer in a very limited number of selected bars in Stockholm. Developed in collaboration with 12 top Swedish bartenders, Carlsberg 900 is “brewed • More PREMIUMIZATION of the sweet kind: chocolate from refined virgin hops and selected crystal malt, and succumbed to PREMIUMIZATION years ago, with artisan triple filtered with a longer cooler fermentation process to chocolate boutiques now charging top dollar/euro/pound ensure a pure, delicate taste.” Carlsberg 900 is priced at for wasabi-infused bonbons from San Francisco to Sin- the premium end of the market, about the price of decent gapore. So what's next? A recent article in the Financial glass of champagne. Times' How to Spend It supplement (which, together with Monocle, is probably the best publication dedicated to PREMIUMIZATION) lists a number of chocolatiers who are going 'bespoke'. Check out firms like Melt, Paul A Young and Sir Hans Sloane Chocolate House for some mouth-watering bespoke inspiration, then figure out if the future of PREMIUMIZATION for your industry is bespoke, too. Hey, Puma is already on board ;-) Now, even though the food and beverage sector definitely leads the PREMIUMIZATION trend, there's much more going on: • Further proof that *anything* can be PREMIUMIZED: luxury marshmallows. From Dean & DeLuca's 1-pound Boulé Marshmallow Sampler of lemon chiffon, passion fruit, vanilla and rose-petal flavors (USD 28) to Pete's Gourmet dipped and undipped marshmallows, which are 1 USD a piece.

You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Brieﬁngs. More at: www.trendwatching.com 4 / 22 • The Hasbro FurReal Friends Butterscotch Pony seeks to "fulﬁll every little girl's dream of having her very own pony." From Hasbro: “Butterscotch is a miniature Shet- land pony, with a fur coat and mane that feel just like a real pony. Butterscotch also has built-in sensors all over Singapore Airlines Suites her body, which enable her to respond to children in life- like ways. If talked to, she will cock her head toward the

speaker quizzically and blink her eyes. She will also react to petting, showing her enjoyment by rubbing her head against a child, twitching her ears, and swishing her tail. At over three feet tall, Butterscotch is more than strong enough to support a rider up to 80 pounds in weight. Along with her brush and carrot, Butterscotch comes with a special adoption certiﬁcate.” Hasbro told Busi- nessWeek that “Butterscotch is an attempt to think beyond the toy industry's usual pricing limits to capture a bigger share of the family budgets that regularly go to iPods and video game consoles.” • Portuguese paper products company Renova sells Re- nova Black, lauded as the ﬁrst fashionable toilet paper. Price per roll is EUR 2.17. Renova Black is also available as Renova Red, Renova Orange, and Renova Green.

Jet Airways' Suite in the Sky

• Air travel has become one massive inspiration source for PREMIUMIZATION. We're not even going to try to list all the business-class-only carriers that have sprung up, some of which are thriving. Also keep a close eye on the PREMIUMIZATION pissing match in First involving airlines like Emirates ('First Class private suites'), Singa- pore Airlines (12 suites on board of each of its new Air- bus 380s) and Jet Airways (Suite in the Sky).

Emirates' First Class private suites

You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Brieﬁngs. More at: www.trendwatching.com 5 / 22 • The battle continues on terra ﬁrma: Lufthansa has been operating a dedicated First Class terminal in Frankfurt for a few years now, and recently opened a second one in Munchen, but got trumped in size and pomp by Qatar Airways' Premium Terminal in Doha. BTW, notice how these exercises in PREMIUMIZATION do wonders for brand and quality perception across the board...

• Strollers had their PREMIUMIZATION moment a few years ago when Bugaboos and Stokkes burst onto the scene. Now car manufacturers like Porsche want a piece of the premium pie: their stroller folds up small enough to ﬁt in the luggage compartment of almost all sports cars. It comes with pneumatic tires and Carrera S rims for a high-performance ride, as well as a lockable • Hauzen is Samsung's new premium home appliance front wheel, a handbrake and parking brake. Price: USD brand. Products include a washing machine, kimchi 690. cooler, fridge and air conditioning system. Some of the • Next: baby furniture. Combining functionality with style, appliances are designed by well-known Korean designer Ooba designs cribs and high chairs that are touted by Andre Kim (that's right, a premium edition within a pre- everyone from the curator of MoMA to French magazines mium edition). Not available outside South Korea. Yet. that cater to parents who want to help their children de- • The Plantronics Voyager 855 is the ﬁrst two-in-one ste- velop a taste for beautiful objects. reo bluetooth headset with "exclusive AudioIQ technology for crystal clear wireless sound." Price: USD 120.

• Lenovo now offers the ThinkPad Reserve Edition lap- top, encased in leather. The Reserve Edition is based on the recently released 12.1-inch Lenovo ThinkPad X61s, and comes with 'Blue-Button Instant Access' for instant messaging with dedicated support staff. Price: USD • The KABE Royal Tower is a double-decker caravan. 5,000, sold by invitation only. The 8.2 meter long camper is 4.4 meters high, allowing people to stand up straight even on the top deck. The lower deck features a living room, kitchen and breakfast dinette, plus a bedroom with single beds, while the upper deck has a 'lounge' with an L-shaped sofa and a cocktail cabinet. A door from the lounge leads out onto the roof of the front section, which serves as a sunbathing terrace. The new double-decker caravan is fully equipped with air conditioning on both ﬂoors, a dishwasher and more. Price: EUR 105,000. • The Laundress is a collection of high-end fabric detergents and care products. When Lindsey Wieber, a sales executive for Chanel, and Gwen Whiting, a senior designer for Ralph Lauren, realized that their expensive clothes were suffering from dry cleaning, they took mat- ters into their own hands and created The Laundress. Their line of premium fabric care products provides detergents for superior fabrics, from wool/cashmere sham- poo to baby detergent. In their own words: “All fabrics are

You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Brieﬁngs. More at: www.trendwatching.com 6 / 22 different—everything needs to be treated differently. All of our products were developed for a speciﬁc reason.” Add- ing to the sense of luxury, detergents and care products come in four signature fragrances: Classic, Cedar, Baby and Lady. The Laundress range also includes laundry bags and 'wet' swimsuit pouches.

• British Feature Radiators proudly states: “Our collection is made up of the best contemporary designer radiators (including stainless steel radiators), traditional cast iron SNACK CULTURE represents the 'transient sphere' on steroids, radiators, electric radiators and towel rails on the market. catering to consumersʼ insatiable craving for instant gratification. With over 150 radiators on display in our showroom, ex- SNACK CULTURE thus embodies the phenomenon of products, services and experiences becoming more temporary pert advice, unrivalled customer service and nationwide and transient; products that are being deconstructed in eas- delivery, feature radiators has been recognized the UK's leading radiator specialist." And regarding their 'Trend' ier to digest, easier to afford bits, making it possible to col- model: "Tall and flat-fronted, this supermodel in the radia- lect even more experiences, as often as possible, in an even tor world is an exclusive addition to Feature Radiators' shorter timeframe. The signs are everywhere, from ubiquitous contemporary collection. Made of lightweight aluminum commerce to fragmented (shattered?) media to fast fashion to and created by top Italian designers, the Trend not only temporary ownership to Netflix-style all-you-can-eat models. has a tidy appearance but also has a magnificent heat SNACK CULTURE, like PREMIUMIZATION, is not a 'new new ' output. Available in classic white and silver metallic.” trend, but definitely one that will continue to thrive next year. Clearly, the list goes on forever. In 2008, no self-respecting brand, To get you going, hereʼs a list of fairly random SNACK CULTURE even those who market the most mundane of commodities, will fail spottings that is sure to grow longer in the next 12 months: to introduce at least one premium version of whatever it is they're peddling. (Candles! Did we mention candles yet? Check out Ac- qua di Parma's Design Candle Collection, priced at a cool USD 130 per candle). If only for the premium profit margins that are involved. Is your industry or sector next?

• Food & Beverage | Some numbers on actual food snacks from the New York Times: ◦ In just three years, sales of 100-calorie packs of crackers, chips, cookies and candy have passed the USD 200-million-a-year mark, and sales grew nearly 30 percent last year. Accord- ing to analysts, the market for these pint-size packages could easily double because of their simple appeal: they help consumers eat less without having to count calories themselves. The growing popularity of these snack packs may also be another sign that some consumers have had their ﬁll of supersized food. ◦ A report from the Hartman Group found that 29 percent of Americans believed that 100-calorie packages were worth the extra cost. For manu-

You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Briefings. More at: www.trendwatching.com 7 / 22 facturers, snack packs are about 20 percent more profitable than larger packages. ◦ Some snack makers think even 100 calories might be too much for some diet-conscious consumers. Hershey, for example, now sells 60- calorie chocolate bars. And Jell-O sells 60- calorie pudding packs. • Which then may explain the success of Chicago-based burger joint Minnies, which proves that bigger isn't always better. Featuring a wide selection of Lilliputian gourmet burgers and sandwiches—including traditional • Cosmetics | Take a high-margin product like cosmetics, favorites such as grilled cheese and Reubens, alongside and cut prices by at least half. Now add online accessibil- the more inventive Mykonos (roast chicken, tzatziki ity with customization, community and values. Throw in a sauce and kalamata tapenade) and Thanksgiving Delight pinch of demystifying expert advice, and you've got e.l.f., (roast turkey, cranberries and wild rice gravy)—Minnies short for "eyes, lips, face." Launched by New York-based applies nouvelle cuisine portions to casual dining. JA Cosmetics roughly three years ago, e.l.f. appears to be turning the cosmetics industry on its ear. All cosmetics cost just USD 1, and customers can create personalized profiles that generate product recommendations and customized looks. e.l.f. currently ships only to US and Canadian addresses, but versions of the site have recently launched for both the UK and Australia. The company 's products are also available in US stores, including Target and a variety of drugstores and convenience chains.

• Old-school SNACK CULTURE meets PREMIUMIZA- TION: in Europe, McDonaldʼs is replacing bolted-down, yellow-and-white plastic furniture with lime green designer chairs and dark leather upholstery. It is the restau- rant chainʼs biggest overhaul in more than 20 years and, with its franchisees, it has spent more than EUR 600 million (USD 890 million), remodeling 1,280 European restaurants in 2007.

• Automotive | Just like bicycles, a pretty staid sector suddenly brimming with innovation, the small car sector seems ready for a truly global boom. Eco-concerns, design savvy and an (urban) willingness to regard cars as a utility instead of the ultimate status symbol will lead to a neverending stream of small-car innovations. Keep an eye on the company who kick-started most of this: Smart. Since its introduction in October 1998, nearly 800,000 • Laundry care | Procter & Gambleʼs Swash offers stu- people in 36 countries have purchased a ʻSmart Fortwoʼ. dents dryer sheets, dewrinkling spray, stain-removing The new Smart Fortwo was released in Europe in April pens, odor-removing sprays and lint rollers that can help 2007 and will become available in the US, for the ﬁrst give their clothes the look and smell of having been time, in Q1 of 2008. The vehicles will be built at a plant in washed without the trouble or expense of actual washing. France and will be equipped for the US market. The Smart Fortwo will come in three trim levels—a Pure baseline model that starts under USD 12,000, a Passion Coupe that starts under USD 14,000 and a convertible

You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Brieﬁngs. More at: www.trendwatching.com 8 / 22 that starts under USD 17,000. Consumers can place a USD 99 refundable reservation for a production model on smartusa.com. So far, more than 30,000 reservations have been received.

• Media | Described as "Rocketboom for Wall Street" and • Fast Fashion | Snacks, cars, magazines…. And fashion, "Squawk Box meets Saturday Night Live", Wallstrip of- of course! If you need to explain SNACK CULTURE to fers stock advice in a format that's second nature to colleagues who may not totally get it (yet), discussing the viewers who watch YouTube instead of CNBC. Wallstrip's success of the Zaras and H&Ms of this world will proba- daily videos are taped in New York, hosted by actress bly do the trick. Whether itʼs fast fashionʼs fast moving Lindsay Campbell, and feature one public company in product cycles, low prices, or SNACK-style ʻwear-only-a- every 3-minute online show. Wallstrip was founded in few-times'. In fact, shopping for clothes increasingly re- October 2006, aiming to be both sassy and serious while sembles shopping for groceries. teaching a new generation of investors to pick their own stocks. The show was created by Howard Lindzon, who The numbers are impressive: H&Mʼs turnover in 2006 runs an investment firm and hedge fund in Arizona and a was SEK 68,400,000,000 (EUR 6.8 billion). Currently, venture capital fund in Toronto. Following Lindzon's per- H&M has 1,400+ stores in 28 countries. Most of its future sonal investment philosophy, the focus is on stocks at all- expansion will take place in the USA, Spain, Italy, Ger- time highs, like Apple, Google and Toyota, analyzing why many, the UK and Canada. In 2007, H&M opened first- they're strong and whether they'll continue to increase in time stores in Hong Kong and Shanghai, with a Tokyo value. 'Man on the street' interviews add to Wallstrip's store planned for fall 2008. Zara is part of Spanish In- informal vibe. The show has been voted one of the top ditex, which also includes fashion chain Bershka. Zaraʼs podcasts on iTunes, and is also distributed via social turnover (EUR 5.35 billion in 2006) accounts for two- video sites like Revver and YouTube. With enough VC thirds of Inditexʼs turnover (EUR 8.2 billion in 2006). For backing to wait and see how its own value will develop, the next years, the focus of Inditexʼs expansion will be on Wallstrip is in no hurry to chase advertising revenues, Europe (outside home market Spain) and on Japan and focusing instead on building a dedicated following of China. Zara had 990 stores in 62 countries at the end of valuable eyeballs. last year, and expects to have added another 130-140 before the end of this year. Wallstrip perfectly fits what Wired Magazine touted as 'snack-o-tainment' earlier this year (yes, that inspired us to come up with SNACK CULTURE). People are becoming accustomed to consuming large amounts of 'bite-size' content rather than the longer-form stuff of traditional media. Online video clips, the iPod Nano, pay-per-view TV shows on iTunes, short games played on handheld devices, the list goes on (do check out MediaSnackers, a news site dedicated to this demographic). From Wired's article:

“Music, television, games, movies, fashion: We now devour our pop culture the same way we enjoy candy and chips—in conveniently packaged bite-size nuggets made to be munched easily with increased frequency and

You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Briefings. More at: www.trendwatching.com 9 / 22 maximum speed. Today, media snacking is a way of life. In the morning, we check news and tap out emails on our laptops. At work, we graze all day on videos and blogs. Back home, the giant HDTV is for 10-course feasting - say, an entire season of 24. In between are the morsels that fill those whenever minutes, as your mobile phone carrier calls them: a 30-second game on your Nintendo DS, a 60-second webisode on your cell, a three-minute podcast on your MP3 player. Like Homer Simpson at the all-you-can-eat seafood buffet, we are capable of devour- ing whatever is in front of us—down to the plastic crusta- ceans—and still go fishing for Colbert clips at 3 am."

• People | SNACK CULTURE applies to more than consumption of goods and services. Consider Adult Friend- • OK, so one more: 20 Minutes, which distributes more Finder, the ʻcasual encountersʼ site now claiming more than 19 million active members. (Real world) sex too has than 2,3 million copies every weekday in Spain, France now become something that can be instantly gratiﬁed, and Switzerland. Forget free newspapers that want 1 with the help from millions of other ʻwilling and ableʼ par- hour of your time; 20 minutes is all consumers need to ticipants. The ʻrate before you dateʼ features add a level get their daily ﬁx. of TRANSPARENCY TYRANNY, too.

• Surprise | Infusing SNACK CULTURE with a dose of surprise, Singapore beverage company Out of the Box caters to consumers who respond to "What would you like to drink?" with a non-committal "anything" or "what- Note: not everything will come in bite-size format. If only for the ever". The company has launched two complementary mass-scale infrastructure that is needed to jet off countless ʻsun brands: Anything and Whatever. Anything is fizzy and snackʼ travelers, or to ship those millions of containers loaded with comes in six flavors (Cola with Lemon, Apple, Fizz Up, SNACK CULTURE goods and ingredients. So in addition to the Cloudy Lemon and Root Beer), while Whatever is non- ever-smaller, weʼre seeing the ever-bigger. In fact, 'biggest of the carbonated (Ice Lemon Tea, Peach Tea, Jasmine Green biggest' is going to grab quite a few headlines in 2008. Check out: Tea, White Grape Tea, Apple Tea, Chrysanthemum Tea). The surprise part? Consumers don 't know which flavor • The Emma Mærsk was named in August 2007 at they're getting until they take a sip. Cans are simply la- Odense Steel Shipyard, Denmark, and at 397 meters beled Anything and Whatever, and the list of ingredients long, 56 meters wide and at 11,000 TEU*, she and her is limited to generic wording. Judging from the buzz on sister vessels** are the largest container vessels in the Singapore forums, teens immediately got the concept world. EMMA MÆRSK, and three of her sister vessels, and are loving it. Surprise fits SNACK CULTURE well, as are visiting the following ports: Algeciras, Bremerhaven, it satisfies the desire for the thrill, for discovery. Worth Hong Kong, Ningbo, Rotterdam, Suez Canal, Tanjung bringing a surprise to market in 2008, even if it's just a Pelepas, Yantian and Xiamen. one-off, and even if only for creating a buzz. • Singapore Airlines debuted the first of its new A380 airplanes last month. Singapore Airlines has configured the aircraft in a 471-seat layout, even though it has the potential to hold 853 people in full economy class con- figuration.

You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Brieﬁngs. More at: www.trendwatching.com 10 / 22 * TEU stands for 'twenty-foot equivalent unit'; a measure of vol- word, with books and (international or niche) paper- ume based on the size of a container that is twenty feet long by based magazines as the most desirable 'must have right eight feet wide by eight feet high. now' items. (We're not sure about charging for otherwise free blogs, though ;-) ** There will be a total of eight of these mammoth ships, with the last one due for delivery to Mærsk Line in January 2008.

Oh, and then we haven't even discussed SNACK CULTURE infil- trating banking (ING Direct, anyone?) or hotels (from Ginger Ho- tels to Yotel to Qbic)... Needless to say, weʼre truly looking forward to your transient, SNACK CULTURE innovations in 2008. Let us know, so that we can include them in our 2009 overview ;-) • However, taking the SEE-HEAR-BUY trend one step further is Midomi; anyone who's ever had a song stuck in his or her head (and who hasn't?) but was unable to place the title or artist is bound to think Midomi pure gen- ius. Users need only sing, hum or whistle a few bars into their computer microphones, and this online search engine can match the tune against its ever-growing musical library. The customer then has the option to purchase the track and can connect with others who share the same musical interests. Currently available in six languages and with more than two million licensed music tracks and a growing collection of user-created files, Midomi still has lots of potential for further enhancements, such as allowing for customers to call Midomi and download songs directly to their mobile devices. So... Who's going to build similar SEE-HEAR-BUY services in 2008 for looking up movies, television shows and even commer- cials by just saying a few lines? And how will these instant gratifi- • SNACK CULTURE meets 'Instant Gratification 2.0': the cation services further shape expectations among demanding, growing number of sophisticated SEE-HEAR-BUY serv- INFOLUSTY consumers? More on this in our February 2008 Brief- ices that enable consumers to instantly purchase any- ing, which will highlight the EXPECTATION ECONOMY. Stay thing virtual they see or hear. Best example to watch in tuned ;-) 2008: the iTunes WiFi Music Store. How it works: when a user hears a particular song playing at his or her local Starbucks, he/she can instantly find the artist, album and name of the track on his iPhone or iPod Touch. By tap- ping the Starbucks button in either device's main menu, the current song shows up, as well as the last ten songs played. They can be purchased and downloaded instantly via Starbucks' wifi connection.

• • Amazon.com's just-launched Kindle, a digital book reading device, is going after the same market for the written

You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Brieﬁngs. More at: www.trendwatching.com 11 / 22 tives like Google's Android and 'their bidding on the 700MHz band' and WiMax and so on are deﬁnitely going to speed things up. We know this is not a new insight, and nor will it happen over- night in 2008, but if you're inclined to look beyond 2008, consider this:

• Right now, there are 2.7 billion mobile phones in use. • The number of worldwide mobile phone users is expected to grow to approximately 3.3 billion in 2011. The Asia-Paciﬁc region is expected to account for 47.9% of global subscribers by 2011. • Globally, nearly 1 in 3 mobile subscribers will use a mobile broadband connection by 2012. This will rep- resent over 1 billion users. (Sources: Juniper, EITO, MIC, Strategy Analytics.)

This year will also see a number of initiatives to bring (back) ON- LINE OXYGEN to the last vestiges of ofﬂine-ness, the pockets of the real world that have managed to keep even regular mobile broadband connections at bay (planes, trains, and automobiles Ah, the Online Revolution, the mega-trend that keeps on giving, anyone?): one that single-handedly dominates the 'connecting sphere'. While Web 2.0 has already single-handledly created young brands that are now bigger and more valuable (at least on paper) than many an old economy stalwart, Web 3.0 and 4.0 and 5.0 guarantee enough motion for this innovation-orgasm to continue uninter- rupted for years to come. Five years ago, we introduced ONLINE OXYGEN as the engine behind all this excitement: control-craving consumers needing online access as much as they need oxygen.

Fast forward to 2008, when we would need a thousand pages/ screens to highlight every noteworthy online sub-trend and Big Idea to watch; the Joosts and Androids and Spores and order- ing burgers in Seoul by RFID and the hundreds of yet-unknown start-ups that are about to make an appearance on TechCrunch. So instead, we'll look at a few developments that will spread and • Even though Boeing discontinued its Connexion inflight encourage ONLINE OXYGEN even further in the next few years internet service last year, don't count on consumers' insa- to come. tiable demand to be online 24/7 to remain unmet forever. In fact, the problem wasn't passenger demand; the satellite-based service was simply too expensive and too heavy (weight equals cost in aviation). So Lufthansa and American Airlines are among the first airlines to bring back inflight internet later this year. Lufthansa is working with T-Mobile to bring back wifi to its planes and will also offer text messaging, e-mail and data access for cell phones, but not phone calls.

American Airlines has signed up with AirCell and will initially test a broadband service on trans-Atlantic flights on its fleet of 767s. Virgin America has also teamed up with AirCell to offer broadband internet services for passengers traveling in the continental US sometime this year. The service will allow passengers to go online using If there's one device that's going to introduce another few hundred either Virgin America's Red inflight entertainment system million people to the online world, it's the phone. And yes, initia- or their own wifi-enabled devices while in flight. Virgin

You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Brieﬁngs. More at: www.trendwatching.com 12 / 22 America will launch the service across its entire ﬂeet of aircraft.

Meanwhile, Australian carrier Qantas will offer wifi and electrical outlets on its new A380 and renovated 747- 400s in the second half of 2008. • European high speed train operator Thalys will soon provide wireless broadband internet access to passengers traveling in Comfort 1 and Comfort 2 between Paris, Brussels, Amsterdam and Cologne. It will be the first international high speed train to provide this service across European borders. A consortium, consisting of Nokia Siemens Networks, satellite operator 21NET and Bel- gium broadband cable operator Telenet, will combine satellite, GPRS and UMTS technologies with wireless networks similar to wifi hotspots to provide a continuous Sometimes, the Next Big Thing can be right under your nose. internet connection on board trains traveling across the Consider the online riches to be reaped in 2008 from... ecom- borders at speeds of 300 km/h. The first Thalys trains merce! Sure, it's been around for years and years, but prepare for equipped with wifi will run commercially in the next few a forceful 'sequel'. After all, never before have so many consum- weeks. ers been willing to overcome security threats, still shockingly bad (or boring) design, and delivery screwups. In other words, 2008 should be a goldmine for smart e-tailers, who, if they get their act together, could make billions and billions of dollars, euros, pounds, yen, kroner, lira and rand that are impatiently waiting to be spent by web-savvy consumers around the world. So in the next 12 months, spend blood, sweat and tears on im- proving your ecommerce presence; the pay-off will be immediate, and far more substantial than investing in Web 2.0 me-toos!

We'll let the numbers do (some of) the talking:

• Some recent US holiday spending numbers: online retail • spending hit a record USD733m on 'Cyber Monday', the • Autonet Mobile is a wireless internet service designed Monday after Thanksgiving which usually represents the to maintain seamless connectivity while driving. The first significant spike in online holiday spending in the US. service turns a car into a wifi hotspot, allowing multiple The spend figure increased by 21% on last year and was people to connect their own wifi-enabled computers to an 84% jump from the average daily online spending the internet. Autonet runs over both 3G and 2.5G cellular totals during the preceding four weeks, according to data networks. Users simply plug the in-car router into ComScore. More than USD 10.7bn has been spent on- their cigarette car lighter, connect their wifi device(s) and line during the holiday season, covering the first 26 days surf the net. Autonet Mobile claims to be effective on of November 2007, a 17% increase on the same period more than 95% of roads in the US. Avis is the first corpo- last year. rate customer of Autonet, rebranding the service as Avis All in all, ecommerce in the US is expected to reap sales Connect. Avis Connect is currently available at San of USD 259 billion this year, representing an 18% gain Francisco, Las Vegas, Newark, New York LaGuardia, over 2006. Chicago OʼHare and Chicago Midway, Dallas/Ft. Worth, • Forrester estimates that in the US, almost USD 400 bil- Miami, West Palm Beach and Ft. Lauderdale airports, as lion of store sales — or 16% of total retail sales — are well as at a San Francisco Avis office. The cost of the directly influenced by the web as consumers research Avis Connect service is USD 10.95 per day. For individ- products online and purchase them offline. This will ex- ual users, the equipment will cost USD 399 plus monthly pand at a 17% compounded annual growth rate over the costs. next five years, resulting in more than USD 1 trillion of store sales by 2012. • In the UK, online shopping sales exceeded GBP 4 billion a month for the first time in July 2007. On a 12-month basis, online sales are up 36%. (Source: Brand Repub- lic.)

You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Briefings. More at: www.trendwatching.com 13 / 22 • South Korea's ecommerce sales soared more than 26% going, here's what our sister publication Springwise New Busi- in 2006, thanks to increased spending on children's ness Ideas recently wrote about LifeAt: goods, fashion and sports-related items. Combined ecommerce transactions reached 13.45 trillion won (USD • Launched in March 2007, LifeAt offers property manag- 14.29 billion). (Source: Yonhap.) ers a turnkey solution for launching a 'nethood' for their Now, if you want some tried and tested tips and examples of how building. So far, over 335 buildings have joined. The to make the most of your ecommerce presence in 2008, including property websites are private and password protected, collaborative filtering 2.0, upselling and cross-selling, establishing for use by residents only. Besides offering a platform offline outposts for your online brand, real world pick-up services, where residents can meet and communicate, sites also luxury e-tailing, group buying services and more, you will have to allow users to post classified ads and rate and review purchase the 2008 Trend Report. But even if you decide to stick local businesses. In addition, property managers post just to this Briefing, we hope ECOMMERCE | THE SEQUEL is on news about vacancies and maintenance work. By con- your radar now! necting people who tend to share not only a building but also similar socioeconomic backgrounds, and offering them a source of hyperlocal information, LifeAt is creating valuable links between cyberspace and 'meatspace'. The concept is likely to find a wider audience now that people of all ages are getting used to sharing information online. Free for residents, LifeAt charges buildings a one- off fee of around USD 6,000 to create and launch a site. One to set up in other countries? And how about a version focusing specifically on office buildings? Also check o u t Neighborology, Neighbours.ie, a n d townconnect.com. Yours to run with in 2008, and yes, if you do this well (just think of the local advertising opportunities), Google Local or Yellow Pages will buy you. Don't forget, all politics and business is local ;-)

OK, one more ONLINE OXYGEN subtrend, if not sub-sub-trend: our two cents on social networking. As discussed in earlier briefings, nichification based on interest, background, affiliation, hob- bies, travel destinations and so on is now a fact. In fact, expect experienced social networkers to not only have a Facebook, Xing, Bebo, Linkedin or MySpace profile, but to also spend time on smaller networking sites (from Mesh Tennis to Yideoz to Goodreads to Trupoli to KLM Airlines' Club China to (soon) DanceJam) when things get, well, focused.

So what's next? One thing to watch is social networks of any kind going local, if not hyperlocal. Neighborhoods. Streets. Buildings. Floors. Like many subtrends, this one isn't spanking new, in fact, we dubbed this opportunity NETHOODS ("neighborhoods, streets and even apartment buildings will get their own internet and intranet sites: not just to promote the many qualities they have to offer their (prospective) inhabitants, but also to provide communal interaction and localized services") in 2003, but sometimes timing is everything, and now that networking on a grander scale is in place, connecting locals if not neigh- bors is just a business opportunity waiting to happen. To get you

You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Brieﬁngs. More at: www.trendwatching.com 14 / 22 in California with just one person on board. As the fuel cell technology was developed by Honda exclusively for the FCX Clarity, and was not retroﬁtted to an existing model, Honda's engineers "cleared away all precon- ceived notions of automobile design, challenging themselves to discover the new possibilities that can only be realized with the fuel cell vehicle." Our verdict: the FCX will be more recognizable than the Prius, making an even more telling statement about the owner's 'STATUS SPHERE'.

The reason so many people fell for our ECO-FATIGUE spoof last month (rest assured, we'll never spoof anyone again ;-) is that an eco-backlash is actually quite plausible. After all, while millions of consumers are firmly rooted in the aforementioned ECO- SPHERE, millions of others are not. But let's focus on those who are now getting their status fix from consuming in a more sustain- able manner. • Another zero-emission car with iconic potential is the Mitsubishi i, first exhibited at the 40th Tokyo Motor Show, this September. From the brochure: "The 'fast- back' exterior design expresses the quickness of the car Over the past few years, the ECO trend has moved from ECO- with an appearance that is pleasing and lively. Geometry, UGLY (ugly, over-priced, low performance alternatives to shiny metallic materials and body epitomize the futuristic elec- 'traditional sphere' products and services) to ECO-CHIC (eco- tric vehicle. The light green exterior marks another asso- friendly stuff that actually looks as nice and cool as the less re- ciation with nature. The pearlescent paint, which shines sponsible version) to ECO-ICONIC in 2008: "Eco-friendly goods when hit with direct light, brings feelings of advanced, and services sporting bold, iconic design and markers, that futuristic technology and environmental peace of mind." help their eco-conscious owners to visibly tout their eco- credentials to peers."

So what does ECO-ICONIC look like? How about the new Honda FCX Clarity, or the Mitsubishi I, or the Bahrain World Trade Cen- ter:

• Honda's FCX Clarity is a fuel cell vehicle that runs on electricity powered by hydrogen, and emits only water vapor and heat. It will be certiﬁed by the California Air Resources Board as a Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) and by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as a Tier-2 Bin 1, the lowest possible federal EPA emission rating. It will also receive an EPA Inherently Low Emis- • The Bahrain World Trade Center is the ﬁrst commercial sion Vehicle rating due to its entirely sealed fuel system. building in the world to incorporate large-scale wind tur- It will qualify for accessing High Occupancy Vehicle lanes bines within its design to harness wind power. It has

You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Brieﬁngs. More at: www.trendwatching.com 15 / 22 three massive wind turbines that measure 29 meters in diameter that are supported on bridges between the BWTCʼs two 240 meter high towers. The tower structures themselves help funnel the existing on-shore Gulf breeze that is used to generate greater power efﬁciency. Very….iconic! When designing your 2008 or 2009 eco-product line, don't mirror what's already out there in the non-eco world, but be bold, original, and yes, iconic. Whether it's cars, buildings or detergent bottles. Find your own Jonathan Ive (see trend #8, CROWD MINING) and get going. Consider this: if consumers value the authentic, the practical, the exclusive, and they're also forever looking to make life more con- venient, even save some time, then why persist in bombarding them with your mega-million dollar/euro/pound, one-way advertising campaigns? Instead of stalking potential and existing customers (which is not very 2008), why not assist them in smart, relevant ways, making the most of your products and whatever it is your brand stands for? Remember, giving is the new taking ;-)

Think baby food or diaper brands opening a lounge area, including diaper-changing facilities and microwaves, for parents and their offspring at a major airport or in malls. Or a bank installing secure, high-tech lockers next to the beach, so beachgoers can safely store their belongings when going for a swim or walk.

Now, we're not branding gurus, and we're not suggesting that BRAND BUTLERS is the new (or rehashed) 'lovemark', but if the following examples don't inspire you to do something truly useful and new with (a small part of) your advertising budget in 2008, There's also going to be some serious ECO-EMBEDDED activity then we don't know what will: taking place in 2008, with governments taking the lead. After all, corporationsʼ and consumersʼ good intentions donʼt always cut it. • Continuing the tradition of using shipping containers to So expect 2008 to see much more of the 'fourth R', aka regula- house all things pop-up, a spotting from the Netherlands tion (remember: reduce, reuse, recycle..) For more on this, see caught our eye. At the Lowlands music festival, jeans our 2008 Trend Report. brand Wrangler offered festival-goers a much-needed service: laundry. At 18 meters wide and 9 meters high, the Wrangler Laundromat was hard to miss. People dropped off their mud-encrusted laundry and were sent a text message the moment it was ready. No change of clothes? Wrangler came up with a generous solution to that problem, too: they handed out black overalls to anyone who used the laundromat. Like most other pop-up ventures, Wrangler Laundromat is an exercise in experi- ential marketing, aimed at surprising and delighting consumers in a way that magazine ads or TV spots usually can't. • Wrangler isn't the only brand to have tackled dirty laundry at pop festivals. In Slovenia, home appliance manufacturer Zanussi-Electrolux has been offering free laundry services at Rock Otočec for several years and has cleaned thousands of muddy t-shirts and jeans. After picking up their spotless garments, visitors are given a "Dear Mom, I'm clean" postcard to send home.

You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Brieﬁngs. More at: www.trendwatching.com 16 / 22 • Acknowledging that traveling with infants can be a strain on both parents and children, Amsterdam's Schiphol • More on sanitary stops meeting BRAND BUTLERS: Charmin restrooms. Due to its success last year (close Airport opened the Schiphol Babycare Lounge by Nutri- to 430,000 people made use of the service), Procter and cia last summer (2007). Located in the airport's main Gamble's bathroom tissue brand reopened its temporary departure terminal, the lounge is (as the name indicates) 20-stall restroom in the heart of Times Square from mid a co-branding effort by Schiphol and Nutricia, a Dutch November to end of December 2007. The facilities of- baby food brand. Designed by MV Architects, the fered clean, deluxe bathrooms, baby changing stations, lounge is serenely stylish and geared to ensuring a baby's well-being while en route. The 90 m2 area fea- stroller parking, seating areas and of course lots of luxury tures seven circular 'cabins', each of which can be closed toilet and bath tissue (including Charmin's new product off with sheer curtains to create a personal zone. The lineup, which includes a choice between Ultra Soft and booths have comfortable circular seating curving around Ultra Strong versions). Specially designed, water- conserving toilets and faucets were provided by Kohler, a crib. Lights in the lounge are dimmed for sleeping ba- while cleanliness was guaranteed by the presence of bies, with individual reading lights for parents. For infants plenty of bathroom attendants. that need a bit of distraction, each booth has a gadget • that projects colored lights onto the ceiling, just above the • Hotel chain Le crib. Other facilities include a changing area, baby baths Méridien is marketing itself as a and a microwave for heating food. Although Nutricia hasn't stocked a pantry with samples of their own baby destination for art enthusiasts. As food, the brand does offer tips on baby nutrition and trav- part of its “Unlock Art” program, it eling with children. The space is open daily from 6 am to has cut deals with local contem- 10 pm, accessible free of charge to parents and children porary cultural institutions to allow hotel guests free entry by aged 0–3. presenting their artist-designed • Also check out Turkish diaper brand Evy Baby, which is room key cards and it has hired reaching out to parents by placing changing rooms in modern art curator Jérôme Sans Turkish shopping malls. The diaper manufacturer has to organize special exhibits. Part- already installed 22 changing rooms in Istanbul, Ankara, ner arts institutions include the Yerba Buena Center for Izmir, Antalya, Adana and Mersin. Each clean and cheer- ful room has a changing table and comfortable chairs for the Arts in San Francisco, the Museum of Contemporary nursing. And, of course, samples of Evy Baby's products. Arts (MOCA) in Shanghai, the Vienna Succession, Nou- veau Musée National de Monaco, Galleriiizu Contempo- rary Arts Centre in Kuala Lumpur, and About Studio/ About Café in Bangkok. Ultimately, the goal is for every Le Méridien hotel worldwide to have partnerships with leading cultural institutions. • Austrian Airlines offers passengers free entry to cultural institutions in Vienna with their boarding cards. Passen- gers traveling with the airline can keep the tear-off stub from their used boarding cards (along with a photo ID) for free entry to ﬁve museums in Vienna. Again, there is no brand that cannot apply the BRAND BUTLERS trend in 2008. Being relevant (gasp), assisting and facilitating potential and existing customers when they truly appreciate it (as

You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Brieﬁngs. More at: www.trendwatching.com 17 / 22 opposed to inundating them with advertising) will go down well. Promise. More examples in our 2008 Trend Report.

Let's have a more in-depth look at the 'participation sphere'. For years, we've been going on about GENERATION C, with the C mainly representing 'content'. In other words, digital creation. Pic- tures. Movies. Blogs. Music.

It's a mainstream trend now, one that keeps giving, with millions of consumers uploading their creative endeavors online, and tens of millions of others enjoying the fruits of their creativity. User- generated content, at least in the online world, has grown from a teenage hobby to an almost equal contender to established enti- ties in news, media, entertainment and craft.

And yes, as predicted, GENERATION C is increasingly being re- warded for its output. In fact, with some members of GENERA- TION C attracting mass audiences, there's real money to be made. In its ﬁrst year, video sharing site Revver, which matches every video uploaded with advertisements and splits the ad reve- nue 50/50 with the video's creator and then shares 20% off the top with the video's distributor, has paid USD 1 million to video crea- tors and sharers.

So what's next for GENERATION C? With (in particular younger) consumers having come to expect to be able to create anything they want as long as it is digital, and to customize and personalize many physical goods, the next frontier will be digitally designing products from scratch, then having them turned into real physical goods as well. In fact, expect MIY | MAKE IT YOURSELF (and then SIY | SELL IT YOURSELF) ventures to become increasingly sophisticated in the next 12 months:

You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Brieﬁngs. More at: www.trendwatching.com 18 / 22 Other Fab Labs have been opened in rural India, north- ern Norway, Ghana, Boston and Costa Rica. Even sweeter? Designing something and then have it made at home (which reminds us of INSPERIENCES):

• New Zealand-based Ponoko (which works like a CafePress for 3D objects) is offering consumers a new way to turn their creative ideas into real-world objects. After uploading their own design to the website (in EPS file format), or choosing a free design, users can choose • The Desktop Factory 3D printer, with a list price of from a variety of materials. Ponoko then runs the design USD 4,995, uses an inexpensive halogen light source through a laser cutter. Besides offering access to profes- and drum printing technology to build robust parts from sional tools to manufacture products, Ponoko also helps composite plastic powder, layer by layer. Desktop Fac- users bring their products to market. Once theyʼre ready tory envisages that within three years, Desktop Factory's to sell, members can add photos of their product to their 3D printers will be affordable for home use. profile page, together with a description and pricing in- Now, we're not saying every consumer is going to design and formation. Products can either be delivered to the de- manufacture his or her own furniture or appliances. Rather, MIY is signer for assembly before being shipped to customers, yet another piece of the participation puzzle: enabling those con- or self-assembly products can be sent directly to the end- sumers who feel like it to call the shots, bypassing traditional play- customer. Ponoko currently only offers two-dimensional ers. In future briefings weʼll address the implications of what this sheet cutting, which limits designs to flat objects or three- choice – being able to consume ready-made or create their own dimensional objects that can be assembled from flat versions of anything and everything – will mean for the behavior pieces, but plans for 3D printing are in the works. and expectations of younger generations. As well as being a manufacturing platform, Ponoko also serves as a community where fledgling one-off fabrica- tors and designers can exchange ideas and help solve each otherʼs problems. The larger goal, according to Ponoko, is to be a catalyst that helps bring personal manufacturing of individualized products to the masses. • Swedish design group FRONT has launched Sketch Furniture, which is a method to materialize freehand sketches. Pen strokes made in the air are recorded with Motion Capture, and the resulting 3-D patterns are output digitally to a laser sintering machine. Over several days, the machine produces the object by shaping and harden- ing 0.1-mm layers of liquid plastic. Sketch Furniture is on view and on sale (about USD 10,500 per piece) at the Barry Friedman Gallery in New York. • Fab Lab Bcn (Barcelona) is part of the worldwide network of Fab Labs, an initiative of MIT Center for Bits and Atoms, and provides a laser-cutter, water jet, 3D printer, mini-mill and other machines for participants to use. Fab Lab Bcn's 4x8 Workshops focus on creating objects from 4x8 feet sheets of plywood using digital tools. One of Fab Lab's initiators is Neil Gershenfeld, professor at MIT and author of FAB: The Coming Revolution on Your Desktop.

You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Brieﬁngs. More at: www.trendwatching.com 19 / 22 chance to reach the national Football League. We'll deﬁ- nitely keep score of this one in 2008.

No! Not another crowd-esque trend! Don't worry; CROWD MIN- ING is simply a moniker for how we see crowd-based business concepts evolving in 2008. But ﬁrst let's take a look at some of the 'crowd pleasers' we enjoyed tracking this year:

• Remember SellaBand, which lets fans sponsor unknown • P2P banking pioneers Zopa and Prosper are still doing bands and artists by buying the band's shares or parts? well, in fact, P2P banking is an excellent example of how (Once a band has raised USD 50,000 by selling 5,000 fast a new concept can spread, and also how much op- parts, SellaBand sets up a professional recording ses- portunity remains in turning consumers into mini-banks. sion. The recorded songs are sold to new fans, and both Quick recap: peer-to-peer lending marketplaces allow the artists and owners of their parts (Believers) receive a people to lend money directly to others, cutting out banks share of the income generated through music sales and and other middlemen. Which means better interest rates advertising revenues.) They're certainly having fun: a few for borrowers and higher returns for lenders. Described weeks ago, Believers who own parts in Cubworld, as eBay for loans, the P2P money exchanges work as Nemesea, Second Person and Maitreya received their follows: borrowers list loan details and a personal profile, first payout, which was transferred to their Believer Bal- and lenders bid on the loan. Lowest interest rates win. ance. While the first payout wasn't massive (in Sella- Lenders bid in increments and minimize their risk by bid- Band's words: "Enough to buy a beer at the pub, or ding on numerous loans. A study by Online Banking Re- maybe even a round or two"), it's a sign that SellaBand's port predicts that by 2011 person-to-person lending in the crowdfunding and crowdrewarding model is working as US could surpass 100,000 loans a year, worth more than planned. Ad revenues are expected to grow over the next USD 1 billion. Unlike eBay, which can connect buyers few months, as SellaBand is working on deals with media and sellers from around the world, peer-to-peer lending is agencies for countries outside their main three mar- generally bound by local financial regulations. Which kets—the Netherlands, United States and United King- means there's ample room for national or regional ver- dom. One to watch this year. sions. Besides Zopa and Prosper, hereʼs what was out there last time we looked, from the promising to the ob- scure, and from the established to ʻcoming soonʼ: ◦ Smava ◦ elolly.de ◦ PPdai • MyFootballClub, which launched in May 2007, recently ◦ Circle Lending announced that they've agreed to buy a controlling stake ◦ Lendary in Ebbsfleet United FC, with the option to buy the the ◦ Boober ◦ CommunityLend remaining share in the future. To refresh your memory: in ◦ Peermint less than three months, MyFootballClub signed up ◦ Lending Club 50,000 people willing to pay a GBP 35 membership fee ◦ Wiseclerk.com ◦ Fairrates to buy and manage a soccer team with a crowd of other ◦ Nexx dedicated fans. MyFootballClub members will vote on ◦ GlobeFunder player selection, transfers and all other major decisions. • When it got down to picking a team to buy, MyFootball- So... lots of innovation going on, yet thereʼs plenty of Club was approached by nine football club owners and room for a second player in all of these markets; and also sought contact with several others. Some of the dozens of countries donʼt yet have a P2P banking brand. crowd's favorite clubs didn't make the cut, because they And what about the many other financial concepts wait- had too much debt or were too regional. One of the rea- ing to be explored, from crowd investments (check out sons for picking Ebbsfleet United is that it stands a good You Be The VC) to insurance plays? Will more consumers become comfortable with these concepts? Will big banks step in? This one too is all yours in 2008 ;-) You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Briefings. More at: www.trendwatching.com 20 / 22 Now, let's go back to CROWD MINING: when co-creating, co- funding, co-buying, co-designing, co-managing *anything* with 'crowds', the emphasis in 2008 will move from just getting the masses in, to mining those crowds for the rough and polished diamonds. How to do that? Shower them with love, respect and heaps of money, of course. Two examples, from Netflix and Goo- gle, setting the standards for CROWD MINING in the year to come:

• Still going strong: Netflix, the DVD rental site, is offering a Grand Prize of USD 1 million to the individual who can • substantially improve the accuracy of predictions about • The Open Handset Alliance's most prominent member, how much someone is going to love a movie based on Google, is developing Android: the first complete, open, their movie preferences. From their site (great copy if you and free mobile platform. To support the quest for apps ever want to set up something similar for your own that surprise and delight mobile users, to be created by brand): “Netflix is all about connecting people to the mov- developers around the world, Google has launched the ies they love. To help customers find those movies, weʼve Android Developer Challenge, which will provide USD 10 developed our world-class movie recommendation sys- million in awards for innovative applications. The first part tem: Cinematch. Now there are a lot of interesting alter- of the challenge (submissions are accepted from January native approaches to how Cinematch works that we 2 through March 3, 2008), will reward 50 entries with havenʼt tried. Weʼre curious whether any of these can USD 25,000 to fund further development. Those selected beat Cinematch by making better predictions. will then be eligible for even greater recognition via ten So, we thought weʼd make a contest out of finding the USD 275,000 awards and ten USD 100,000 awards. answer. Itʼs 'easy', really. We provide you with a lot of anonymous rating data, and a prediction accuracy bar So... What's your brand's biggest challenge (or opportunity), and that is 10% better than what Cinematch can do on the what kind of dough would you be willing to dole out to have bril- same training data set. If you develop a system that we liant crowds solve it for you in 2008? judge most beats that bar on the qualifying test set we provide, you get serious money and the bragging rights. But (and you knew there would be a catch, right?) only if you share your method with us and describe to the world how you did it and why it works. To keep things interesting, in addition to the Grand Prize, weʼre also offering a Enjoy these free briefings? USD 50,000 Progress Prize each year the contest runs. Then, you will love our 2OO9 Trend Report It goes to the team whose system we judge shows the most improvement over the previous yearʼs best accuracy bar on the same qualifying test set. No improvement, no prize." To keep things transparent, progress can be monitored on an online leaderboard. So far, more than 27,000 con- testants from 161 countries have submitted their guesses, with the winner for 2007 being Team KorBell for their October 2007 submission, achieving an 8.43% improvement over Cinematch, which netted them the USD More at www.trendwatching.com/trendreport » 50,000 Progress Prize. Now, they got close, but not close enough, which means the USD 1 million grand prize is still up for grabs ;-)

You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Brieﬁngs. More at: www.trendwatching.com 21 / 22 For some help, don't forget our 'How to Apply Trends' checklist:

1. Vision—Do these trends have the potential to inﬂuence or shape your company's vision? 2. New business concepts—Can these trends point you to new business concepts, or entirely new ventures? 3. New products, services, experiences—Can these trends inspire you to add 'something' new for a certain customer segment? 4. Marketing, advertising, PR—Will these trends help you speak the language of those consumers that are already 'living' a trend?

For more tips on how to apply trends, please check out our Trend Tips section.

Sure, there's much, much more in 2008 that's worthy of your And, hey—we're counting on the entrepreneurs amongst you to attention. But for now, take any of the eight trends above, sit down turn some of these predictions into self-fulﬁlling prophecies before with your colleagues and/or clients, and ﬁgure out how to come up 2009! with at least:

• one new premium product • one 'snack' version of an existing product • two or three major tweaks to your ecommerce presence • one eco-iconic innovation • two or three marketing campaigns that are about aiding consumers, not stalking them • one MIY concept • one campaign to ask the rest of the world for help with at least one of your company's major opportunities or chal- lenges

trendwatching.com is an independent and opinionated consumer trends ﬁrm, relying on a global network of 8,000 spotters, working hard to deliver inspiration and pangs of anxiety to business professionals in 120+ countries worldwide. More information at www.trendwatching.com

You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Brieﬁngs. More at: www.trendwatching.com 22 / 22