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Happy 2008! Last Year, We Highlighted Trends Like more brands will realize (if not grudgingly accept) that 'old', mass- era status symbols, from the Audi R8 to the De Beers Talisman Watch Collection are no longer every consumer's wet dream. After all, as mature consumer societies are increasingly dominated by (physical) abundance, by saturation, by experiences, by virtual worlds, by individualism, by participation, by feelings of guilt and concern about the side effects of unbridled consumption, status is Happy 2008! to be had in many more ways than leading a lifestyle centered on Last year, we highlighted trends like (STILL) MADE HERE, FE- hoarding as many branded, luxury goods as possible. MALE FEVER, TRANSPARENCY TYRANNY, TRYSUMERS and more. To get you going this year, here are 8 trends to make the We've dubbed the above phenomenon STATUS SPHERES: a most of 2008. And yes, more to follow in the months to come ;-) variety of lifestyles, activities and persuasions, which can be mixed and matched by consumers looking for recognition from various crowds and scenes. Getting too vague? Here are some STATUS SPHERES to keep an eye out for in the next 12 months: Traditional consumption is about buying more and/or better stuff than fellow consumers. Which is by no means dead. In fact, ex- pect the consumer arena in 2008 to still be about hundreds of millions of consumers who do want to consume more, who do covet all things bling, who do crave in-your-face brands. Oh, and even if (a big if*) conspicuous consumption were ever to subside Let's start this Trend Briefing by looking back. At the beginning of in mature consumer societies, then count on the emerging middle 2007, as part of our STATUS LIFESTYLES trend, we wrote: classes in China,** India, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, Nigeria, Vietnam, Indonesia, Mexico and Brazil to proudly take over the "Here's something trend watchers, CMOs and other business torch. In other words, count on multiple consumption and status professionals should be able to agree on: in the end, when arenas to develop simultaneously for years to come. dealing with (and selling to) people, everything always comes back to status. In a traditional consumer society, he or she However, while the rise of the global middle class is as big a story who consumes the most, the best, the coolest, the most ex- as they come, the rise of high net worth individuals (HNWIs) has pensive, the scarcest or the most popular goods, will typi- an equally significant impact on consumerism. Consider the fol- cally also gain the most status." lowing numbers, from the 2007 World Wealth Report by Merrill Lynch and Capgemini: Now, you guessed it: the above still rings true in 2008, and should be on your mind whenever/wherever -- when tracking trends, • The number of HNWIs—individuals with net assets of at when mapping out new strategies and when coming up with new least USD 1 million, excluding their primary residence products and services for your customers. In fact, this year, even You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Briefings. More at: www.trendwatching.com 1 / 22 and consumables—in the world increased 8.3% to 9.5 million. • The number of ultra-HNWIs—individuals with net assets Attractive to consumers who are driven by experiences instead of of at least USD 30 million, excluding their primary resi- the fixed—those who are driven by entertainment, by discovery, dence and consumables—grew by 11.3% to 94,970. by fighting boredom, who increasingly live a transient lifestyle, • The BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China) con- freeing themselves from the hassles of permanent ownership and tinue to play increasingly important roles in the global possessions. economy. China and Russia were among the top ten countries with the fastest growing HNWI populations. We dubbed these consumers TRANSUMERS about a year ago, Chinaʼs HNWI population grew by 7.8% to 345,000 peo- and the trend is still building. Implications for 2008? An obsession ple and Russiaʼs has increased by 15.5% to 119,000. with the here and now, an ever-shorter satisfaction span, and a Brazil (120,000 HNWIs) and India (100,000 HNWIs) also lust to collect as many experiences and stories as possible, is showed continued strength. undermining the perceived value (and thus status) of fixed goods With so much (new) wealth and disposable income around the and services. More practical examples in SNACK CULTURE world, not only is there money to be made from selling premium (trend # 3) below. goods, thereʼs also a constant need for redefining what constitutes luxury, for what constitutes status in bling-driven consumer socie- ties. If millions have access to the same premium goods, to the same premium brands, these premium offerings lose some of their value, as their entire raison dʼêtre was to offer something that oth- Where to begin? In an online world or virtual world, social status ers could not get access to. Scarcity is becoming less scarce and 2.0 is all about who you connect to and who wants to connect to wealth is always relative, leading to actual STATUS DESPAIR you, tribal-style. It also encompasses status gained from the num- among those who are by all means, financially well off. ber of views for one's photos on Flickr, to the number of friends on Facebook, to one's gaming skills and levels (just a snippet: Micro- So in an arena that has become crowded with middle class and soft's Halo 3 racked up USD 170 million in sales on its first day of high net worth consumers, expect luxury goods to take on more availability, making it the hottest-selling title in video game his- outlandish forms and shapes, at ever-higher costs. Our most re- tory. Total sales since September 2007: 4+ million copies) to the cent favorite example of STATUS DESPAIR was Prince Alwaleed good looks of one's avatar, to finding out about whatever/wherever bin Talal bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud of Saudi Arabia buying himself a on anything before anyone else does. More on this in ONLINE USD 320 million Airbus 380, which for another USD 100+ million OXYGEN (trend # 4) below. will be turned into a 'flying palace' with three bedrooms, private lounges, bathrooms, offices, a steam bath and exercise machines. But even here, commoditization is threatening the Prince's pur- chase: Airbus actually expects to sell about 20 VIP versions of the A380. With the environment finally on the agenda of most powers that be, and millions of consumers now actively trying to greenify their * As weʼve pointed out many times before, one mistake both trend lives, status in the eco-sphere is both more readily available, and watchers and brands make all the time, is to assume or pretend increasing in value. A substantial subset of consumers is already that a certain ʻtrendʼ will affect or be embraced by ALL consumers. bestowing recognition and praise on Prius drivers while scorning No. Remember, in life and in trends: beauty (or ugliness) is in the SUV owners, and this will only accelerate as even more design- eye of the beholder. minded and branding-savvy eco-firms push to the forefront in 2008. Make it green, make it effortless, make it visible if not bold if ** The Chinese middle class consists of those people who have a not iconic, and don't hesitate to point out your competitor's pollut- degree of economic independence, but not a great deal of social ing alternatives ;-) For more on this, see ECO-ICONIC (trend #5) influence or power. The term often encompasses merchants and below. professionals, bureaucrats, and some farmers and skilled workers. Definition of middle class in China: managers, professionals, skilled technicians and service workers earning USD 2,500 to USD 10,000 a year each. It is expected to grow from 100 million Find us one high-profile billionaire who's not deeply into 'giving' people in 2005 to 200 million people by 2010, reaching 315 million right now. In fact, whether it's giving away your riches, your time, by 2015. (Source: Insight Bureau.) or sharing your (content) creations with total strangers, giving is the new taking. For an excellent overview of the world's most gen- Luckily, before we reach total STATUS DESPAIR, there's still erous philanthropists (trendsetters par excellence!), check out plenty of room for innovation in the traditional sphere: check BusinessWeek's recent special on the topic. For brand implica- PREMIUMIZATION (trend # 2) below. tions, see BRAND BUTLERS (trend #6) below. You are reading a PDF version of one of our free monthly Trend Briefings. More at: www.trendwatching.com 2 / 22 Especially for younger (and younger-at-heart) consumers, partici- pation is the new consumption. For these creative beings, status comes from finding an appreciative audience, which is much the same way brands operate. No wonder that it's becoming increas- ingly important to hone one's creative skills. Status symbols, make way for STATUS SKILLS? What's going to be your participation strategy for 2008? See also trends #7 and 8 in this briefing: MYI | MAKE IT YOURSELF and CROWD MINING. One thing you can't go wrong with this year is to ask yourself how your current and new products and experiences will satisfy an audience of very diverse status seekers. If you haven't done so already, get rid of the habit of only focusing on traditional status London's St. Pancras International railway station is now home to symbols, and you will find there is no end to the number of Europe's longest champagne bar (96 meters) STATUS SPHERES you'll be able to identify.
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