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Analysis of Existing Framework for Renewables and RE Policy in India

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Analysis of Existing Framework for Renewables and RE Policy in India [Type text] 1. Indo – German Energy Programme Green Energy Corridors Analysis of Existing Framework for Renewables and RE policy in India Published by Consortium Partners Ernst & Young LLP, India Fraunhofer IWES, Germany University of Oldenburg, Germany Fichtner GmbH & Co. KG, Germany i Contents 1. Power Scenario in India ............. 1 1.1 Renewable Energy (RE) Scenario in India .......................................................................................... 1 1.2 RE Targets in India ............................................................................................................................ 2 2. Key Stakeholders and Structure of Power Market in India 4 3. Goals and Objectives ................. 5 3.1 Problem Statement ....................................................................................................................... 5 3.2 Mission ......................................................................................................................................... 5 4. Approach & Methodology .......... 6 4.1 Study Framework ......................................................................................................................... 6 4.2 Review of Existing RE Market Drivers ........................................................................................... 6 4.3 Stakeholder Consultation .............................................................................................................. 7 4.4 Criteria of Evaluation .................................................................................................................... 7 4.5 Evaluation .................................................................................................................................... 8 5. Outcome of Analysis .................. 9 6. Situational Analysis ................. 20 6.1 Central ........................................................................................................................................20 6.1.1 RE Potential of States Considered for Analysis ........................................................................21 6.1.2 Targeting Analysis ...................................................................................................................22 6.1.3 Policy and Regulatory Support .................................................................................................24 6.1.4 National Solar Mission .............................................................................................................26 6.1.5 Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO) and RE Certificates ....................................................35 6.1.6 Open Access ...........................................................................................................................41 6.1.7 Technical Considerations .........................................................................................................44 6.1.8 Key Enablers for investment in RE sector in India ....................................................................51 Investments in RE Sector in India ... 51 Investments in RE Manufacturing Sector in India 52 6.1.9 Banking of Renewable Energy .................................................................................................54 6.1.10 Upcoming Initiatives .................................................................................................................60 7. Recommendations ................... 62 Bibliography ..................................... 66 Annexure 1 – State Analysis ....... LXIX Detailed Analysis of the selected Indian States ................................................................................... LXIX Tamil Nadu ......................................................................................................................................... LXIX ii Gujarat .............................................................................................................................................LXXXI Himachal Pradesh ......................................................................................................................... LXXXVI Rajasthan ............................................................................................................................................. XCI Karnataka ......................................................................................................................................... XCVII Annexure 2 – Installed Power Capacities for States CIX Annexure 3 – Installed Power Capacities for States CXIII iii List of Figures Figure 1 – Cumulative Installed Capacity (in GW).....................................................................................1 Figure 2 - RE Installed Capacity in India (May 2015) [2] ...........................................................................2 Figure 3 - Growth of Installed Capacity of RE in India (in GW) .................................................................2 Figure 4 - Key Stakeholders in the Indian Power Sector ...........................................................................4 Figure 5 - Approach for Reviewing Existing RE Market Drivers .................................................................6 Figure 6 - Outcome of Situational Analysis for States ............................................................................. 10 Figure 7: Fuel Mix of Conventional and RE Generation in 2014-15 ......................................................... 22 Figure 8: Fuel Mix of Conventional and RE Generation in 2021-22 ......................................................... 23 Figure 9: Peak Electricity Demand Vs Expected Installed RE Capacity (in GW) ...................................... 23 Figure 10 - Timeline of Solar Policies in India against Deployment in Gujarat and JNNSM...................... 27 Figure 11 – Project Success measured w.r.t. % Completion of Project ................................................... 29 Figure 12 - RPO targets ......................................................................................................................... 36 Figure 13 - Growth in Transmission System in Central and State Sector................................................. 46 Figure 14 - Methodology for Calculation of Hydro Balancing Potential in States ...................................... 49 Figure 15 - Hydro Balancing Potential in the identified States ................................................................. 50 Figure 16 - Prices Jun 2014 at IEX ......................................................................................................... 57 Figure 17- Prices January 2015 at IEX ................................................................................................... 58 Figure 18 - Electricity Peak Demand v/s installed RE capacity for Tamil Nadu .................................... LXIX Figure 19 – Ideal Scenario of power utilization during peak demand season in TN ........................... LXXVI Figure 20 - Electricity Peak Demand v/s installed RE capacity for Gujarat ........................................ LXXXI Figure 21: Electricity Peak Demand v/s installed RE capacity for HP ............................................. LXXXVI Figure 22: Electricity Peak Demand v/s installed RE capacity for Rajasthan ......................................... XCI Figure 23 - Electricity Peak Demand v/s installed RE capacity for Karnataka .................................... XCVII Figure 24: Electricity Peak Demand v/s installed RE capacity for AP ..................................................... CII iv List of Tables Table 1: RE Targets and Actual Installed Capacity ...................................................................................3 Table 2 - Market Drivers at the Central and State Level ............................................................................7 Table 3 - Outcome of Situational Analysis for States ................................................................................9 Table 4 - State wise Solar Potential [3] ................................................................................................... 21 Table 5 - State wise wind potential [4] .................................................................................................... 21 Table 6 - JNNSM Targets....................................................................................................................... 27 Table 7 - Batch 1 & 2 Aggregate Statistics [7] ......................................................................................... 30 Table 8 - Batch 1 & 2 Ranking as per Different Indicators ....................................................................... 30 Table 9 – Assessment of risk factors for Solar PV and thermal in India ................................................... 31 Table 10 - Solar Policies declared after NSM ......................................................................................... 33 Table 11 - Evaluation of Effectiveness of JNNSM ................................................................................... 34 Table 12 - RPO Trajectory for States...................................................................................................... 36 Table 13 - Possible options for RPO compliance by resource rich and resource deficient states ............. 37 Table 14 - Issues with RECs .................................................................................................................
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