ISSN 2502-0722 Issue 40/ October 2018
+ Against All Odds, the The Hope Coated ASEAN and the IMF: INFOGRAPHIC New Southbound Policy with Challenges - Working Together to Unlock Digital Focus on ASEAN and ASEAN’s Continued Taiwan looks south Economy Potential as Key Driver of Engagement with Taiwan to ASEAN Region’s Economic Growth A Note From the Editor 1 Articles 2 ASEAN and the IMF: Working Together to 2 Unlock Digital Economy Potential as Key Driver of Region’s Economic Growth The Hope Coated with Challenges - 8 Taiwan looks south to ASEAN Against All Odds, the New Southbound 13 Policy and ASEAN’s Continued Engagement with Taiwan
Infographic 18
Focus on ASEAN 18
ASEAN Round-Up 20 Indonesia says death toll in Sulawesi quake 20 rises past 2,000 Indonesia opens 2018 Asian Para Games in 21 heartwarming ceremony A note from the editor
Thinking ASEAN is a monthly publication Dear readers: that aims to provide insightful, cogent and Welcome to the October 2018 issue of the monthly Thinking ASEAN! engaging perspectives on issues central to contemporary Southeast Asia and the Whilst we may be winding into the final few months of the year, there will be no rest for the ASEAN member states. It is a product of The region as all interested stakeholders gear up for next month’s ASEAN Summit and Related Habibie Center, with the generous support Meetings in Singapore. Having said that, the ten ASEAN Leaders did gather on the Indonesian of the Republic of Korea’s Mission to ASEAN. island of Bali this month, as part of the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group (IMF-WBG); providing an important opportunity for Indonesia and ASEAN The content of Thinking ASEAN does not to showcase its economic opportunity and potential to the world. reflect the official opinion of The Habibie Center or institutions related to the In this sense, our lead article this month looks at the Annual Meetings of the IMF-WB and publication. The Habibie Center was founded is written by Nika Pranata (Researcher, Economic Research Center – Indonesian Institute of by Indonesian President Bacharuddin Jusuf Sciences (LIPI)). Entitled ‘ASEAN and the IMF: Working Together to Unlock Digital Economy Habibie in 1999 as an independent, non- Potential as Key Driver of Region’s Economic Growth’, the article traces the mistakes made by governmental and non-profit organization ASEAN Member States and the IMF during the Asian Financial Crisis, the lessons learned from to promote the democratization and it, and how the two sides can work together to unlock the region’s digital economy potential. modernization of the country. Meanwhile the second article is by Shan-Hua Yu (National Chengchi University, Taipei) who Responsibility for the information and views writes on ‘The Hope Coated with Challenges – Taiwan looks south to ASEAN.’ Taipei has long expressed in Thinking ASEAN lies entirely with sought closer relations with ASEAN member-states, launching the ‘New Southbound Policy’ the author(s). For comments, suggestions since 2016. The article makes the case for Taipei to ensure the policy stays regardless of and prospective contributions, the Managing diplomatic challenges. Editor of Thinking ASEAN can be reached at Lastly, Hana Hanifah (Researcher, ASEAN Studies Program, The Habibie Center) responds [email protected]. by providing a Southeast Asian view with an article entitled, ‘Against All Odds, the New Southbound Policy and ASEAN’s Continued Engagement with Taiwan.’ Her article focuses on the question of why and how ASEAN countries have been able to sustain good relations with Taiwan despite all the challenges. Project Supervisors As usual, we present an infographic that this month covers Focus on Rahimah Abdulrahim ASEAN. Executive Director, The Habibie Center Don’t hesitate to drop me a line at [email protected] if you have comments, input, or prospective submissions. Hadi Kuntjara Deputy Director for Operations, Happy reading! The Habibie Center Best regards from Jakarta Editor in Chief A. Ibrahim Almuttaqi
Thinking ASEAN Team Askabea Fadhilla Fina Astriana Muhamad Arif FIND OUR UPCOMING Hana Hanifah Vierna Tasya Wensatama AGENDA ON Wirya Adiwena Lany Sekar @habibiecenter Anissa Dini
The Habibie Center was founded by Bacharuddin Jusuf Habibie and family in 1999 as an independent, non- governmental, non-profit organisation. The vision of The Habibie Center is to create a structurally democratic society founded on the morality and integrity of cultural and religious values.
The missions of The Habibie Center are first, to establish a structurally and culturally democratic society that recognizes, respects, and promotes human rights by undertaking study and advocacy of issues related to democratization and human rights, and second, to increase the effectiveness of the management of human resources and the spread of technology. Issue 40/ Oktober 2018 2
ASEAN and the IMF: Working Together to Unlock Digital Economy Potential as Key Driver of Region’s Economic Growth
IMF Source: el-universal.com
Nika Pranata, Researcher, Economic Research Center – Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) Overview of ASEAN – IMF Relations overcome the root cause based on local IMF has been reforming and learning economic characteristics. from the past mistakes although they It has been two decades since the are still unsure the exact cause of occurrence of the Asian Financial Crisis This ineffective assistance has left a the Crisis and their response. Instead in 1997. The year marked close relations negative stigma of the IMF and its of heavily emphasizing on a detailed between ASEAN and the IMF. The intervention particularly for ASEAN requirement list of financial assistance assistance provided by the IMF in the Member States. This also has made the through loans, currently, the IMF has form of loans at that time was considered region try to be less dependent on the focused on finding the root cause of the ineffective. In fact, numerous criticsisms IMF’s assistance. One of the efforts to crisis and determining the appropriate came from economists and scholars reduce dependency was by forming that specific policies in order to resolve stating that the provided assistance ASEAN+3 that includes the 10 ASEAN the crisis as well as prioritizing social worsened the crisis (Gan & Li, 1999). Member States and three other large security programs to protect the poor Furthermore, Indonesia and Thailand Asian countries namely China, Japan, and and vulnerable. Noticing that Asian were the two worst affected ASEAN South Korea, in which the collaboration countries particularly AMS have played Member States (AMS) with Indonesia’s started in December 1997 and was an important role in the global economy, GDP declining by more than 13 percent institutionalized in 1999. Then, in 2000 the IMF has also improved its governance whilst Thailand’s GDP dropped more the ASEAN +3 and Hong Kong central and provided a greater say to Asian than 7% in 1998 (World Bank, 2018). banks made a cooperation regarding countries by raising the voting portion At that time, instead of formulating financial safety net called the Chiang Mai and representation of them. specific policies based on local economic Initiative (CMI). It is an agreement in the characteristics of the assisted countries, form of a network of bilateral currency Furthermore, in relations to the the IMF applied a one fit for all approach swaps and repurchase agreements among establishment of the ASEAN +3 and for every assisted country. its members to face international liquidity AMRO, both parties do not see each problem. Furthermore, this agreement other as a threat, but it is seen as a For instance, generally, the IMF obliged was then multilaterized in 2010 into a further potential of cooperation and the assisted countries to tighten its single contractual agreement named the collaboration. For instance, the IMF monetary policy by increasing interest Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization is often invited in the discussions and rates significantly and closing down or (CMIM) with the nominal amount of meetings of ASEAN +3. More importantly, capitalizing some private banks as well the agreement reaching USD 240 billion the IMF intends to strengthen the as reducing subsidies and social security. (AMRO, 2017). Recently, the cooperation regional safety net in the form of CMIM The IMF mistakenly treated the crisis is not only in terms of financial stability that has a size of USD 240 billion into a as a conventional macroeconomic crisis but has also widened into a regional global safety net by working intensively whilst the crisis itself was a financial crisis macroeconomic surveillance by with the ASEAN + 3 and CMIM. In in which the latter should be treated institutionalizing the former ASEAN+3 addition, the IMF member countries have differently (Sterland, 2017). In addition, into the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic committed to provide additional bilateral the IMF also applied numerous and strict Research Office (AMRO) in 2016. loan resources to the IMF in order to conditions for assisted countries in order expand its financial assistance capacity to to be able to obtain economic stimulus Moreover, realizing that they made USD 1 trillion(Furusawa, 2017). for the IMF. Such requirements made the mistake with regards to its Asian assistance inflexible and hard to adjust to Financial Crisis approach, since then the Moreover, the latest approach of the IMF
At that time, instead of formulating specific policies based on local economic characteristics of the assisted countries, the IMF applied a one fit for all approach for every assisted country. Issue 40/ Oktober 2018 4 in signaling the significance of ASEAN is related to financial and economic that by accident as the sector has proven to by choosing one of the most influential has ever been held by Indonesia. It was be the new source of global economic AMS, Indonesia, as the host country for held on October 12 – 14, 2018 in one of growth and is currently growing at a the 2018 Annual Meetings of the IMF and the well-known global tourist destination, breakneck pace. It also contains vast the World Bank Group. Besides that, the Bali. It succeeded in bringing about potential waiting to be unlocked. As for IMF is also keen to lessen its negative 32,000 participants from 189 countries ASEAN, the region’s economy combined stigma. In doing so, before the meetings, comprising finance ministers, central is currently the 5th largest in the world. IMF Managing Director, Christine Lagarde, bank governors, investors, businessman, It also has the 3rd largest population in made a statement that Indonesia does NGOs, economists, scholars, journalists, the world with more than 600 million not need loans from the IMF as the and other delegates(Aisyah, 2018). inhabitants and where more than Indonesian economy is currently well- Such number of participants is by far half of them are under 30 years old. managed. In addition, the IMF also made the largest numbers in the meeting’s Such an age group is known as digital a contribution of about USD 131 million history. This grand event is a very good natives who demand for faster, efficient, to assist with the Lombok and Sulawesi momentum not only for Indonesia as and borderless services which can Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster the host country, but also for ASEAN in be implemented in digital services. In response in Indonesia(IMF, 2018c). which Indonesia is part of the region, to addition, there is a large and growing be able to collaborate with the world. number of technology-literate people in Digital Economy as Priority Issue It has to be able to prioritize mutual ASEAN represented by approximately in2018 Annual Meetings of the IMF interests of the region. There are several 35% of smartphone penetration. and the World Bank Group issues discussed in the meetings with Furthermore, by 2025, the majority of digital economy is one of the priority ASEAN people will be dominated by The 2018 Annual Meetings of the IMF issue. digital natives which are familiar with the and the World Bank Group is the largest use of internet and services that requires financial and economic meetings in the The decision to put digital economy as complex technology (A.T. Kearney, 2015). world. By far, it is also the biggest event a priority issue in the meetings is not
Figure 1. ASEAN-6 Digital Population 2018
Source: ASEAN UP(2018) In terms of harnessing the potential of services. Those startups are Go-Jek, although ASEAN is one the most the digital economy, ASEAN has reaped Tokopedia, Traveloka which originated populous regions, it only accounts for less economic benefits from this sector. from Indonesia and Grab, SEA, and Lazada than 1% of the global retail e-commerce Billions of dollar has been invested in from Singapore. This does not include market (Figure 2). This does not include ASEAN’s prominent startups which the amount of jobs generated by those other sectors that have large potential in has transformed them into giant digital startups. Go-Jek alone has generated terms of digital economy such as Financial companies in the world. There are 6 more than 1 million jobs(Venkatesan, Technology (FinTech), logistics integration unicorn startups - a tech/digital company 2018). Although, it has yielded significant using blockchain and the Internet of valued more than USD 1 billion – in benefits to the economy, the truth is Things (IoT), and other potential sectors. ASEAN which are dominated by there are vast opportunities and potential e-commerce platforms and ride hailing that have not been unlocked. For instance,
Figure 2. Global Retail e-Commerce Market 2015
Source: Wong(2016)
Moreover, realizing the immense potential entrepreneurship, digital ecosystem, and • Harmonize and Modernize of the digital economy, the annual digital literacy (Pratama, 2018). Legal Frameworks at Regional meetings launched an initiative related Level to formulating strategy in harnessing Unlocking ASEAN Digital Economy economic advantages of the sector called Potential This recommendation was also “Digital Economy for All11 (DE4All) proposed in an IMF Policy Paper which was supported by three special Recently, the digital economy has played as a product of The Bali Fintech agendas namely “Disruptive Technology crucial role for ASEAN economy as it Agenda of 2018 Annual Meetings and Inclusive Development – What has proven to yield economic advantages of the IMF and World Bank Group. Works?”, “Harnessing Technology for to the region. Yet, it has not reached its Great variation of regulations Inclusive Growth”, and “The Bali Fintech full potential. It still contains untapped among AMS, as shown in Figure Agenda”. Those efforts are meant to link massive potential to be explored. 3, will hinder the penetration of cooperation and collaboration among the Therefore, in order to reap the potential region’s digital economy, hence, the government, industry, and other related of its digital economy and for the sake of region has to harmonize the legal parties based on 5 digital economy mutual benefits, it is better for ASEAN frameworks particularly regulations pillars comprised of infrastructure, digital to implement the following policy that are closely related to the financial services, innovation within recommendations: digital economy such as privacy Issue 40/ Oktober 2018 6
and data protection, spectrum and it is also important for the region generated uncertainty whether it infrastructure, consumer rights, to adapt to changes by modernizing is classified as platform services or online dispute resolution, and its legal frameworks as the failure public transport company exposing other relevant legal frameworks. In of regulations to adapt may hamper the fact that existing regulations addition, considering that services the digital services business. have been outpaced by recent in the digital era implement For instance, in Indonesia, the developments. unconventional business processes, classification of Go-Jek services has
Figure 3. Inharmonious Digital Economy Related Regulations Among ASEAN Member States
Source: A.T. Kearney(2015)
• Foster regional cooperation • Shorten the Gap of ASEAN experienced in fixed broadband Digital Divide subscriptions where in some AMS In the current borderless era, the subscribers are left behind instead of competing fiercely and Economic inequality among AMS is from other AMS as the price of it taking down each other, cooperation not only the problem of ASEAN, as in the former group is considerably and collaboration is crucial to speed the region also has a noticeable gap expensive (IMF, 2018b). Such a up the business expansion. As for in terms of internet and broadband condition will create roadblocks the e-commerce sector, partnership penetration. Only 20-30% of Lao, for ASEAN as a region to reach its between marketplace and local Myanmar, and Cambodia population potential. Therefore, AMS should logistics providers in each AMS have access to the internet whilst collaborate in order to provide will be beneficial for ghd involved in more developed AMS such as universal and affordable internet parties. The best example of such Singapore and Malaysia the figure access. partnership is shown by Alibaba’s reaches 75-85%. Worse gap is investment in Singapore Post. • Ease Intra-Region Labour com/news/2018/10/07/annual-meetings- brookings.edu/opinions/the-asian-financial- Mobility participants-surpasses-govt-target.html crisis-20-years-on-lessons-learnt-and- remaining-challenges/ As the digital services industry • AMRO. (2017). Overview of The Chiang implements high-technology in Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM). • Venkatesan, A. (2018). How GO-JEK running its businesses, the sector Retrieved from http://www.amro-asia.org/ manages 1 million drivers with 12 engineers requires high-skilled labour, wp-content/uploads/2017/02/For-website- (Part 1). Retrieved from https://blog. especially those with ICT expertise, updating-Overview-of-CMIM.pdf gojekengineering.com/how-go-jek-manages- 1-million-drivers-with-12-engineers-part-1- to support it. The availability of 978af9ccfd32 such qualified labours may not be • ASEAN UP. (2018). The 6 Tech Unicorns of Southeast Asia. Retrieved from https:// sufficient for some AMS which aseanup.com/tech-unicorns-southeast-asia/ • Wong, C. (2016). 7 THINGS YOU NEED TO eventually generate labour shortages KNOW ABOUT MALAYSIA’S NATIONAL for the industry. Therefore, ASEAN • Furusawa, M. (2017). What We Have Seen ECOMMERCE STRATEGIC ROADMAP. should find ways to further ease and Learned 20 Years After the Asian Retrieved from https://www.go-ecommerce. intra-region mobility of skilled Financial Crisis. Retrieved from https://blogs. my/article/7-things-you-need-know-about- labour. This, amongst others, can be imf.org/2017/07/13/what-we-have-seen-and- malaysia’s-national-ecommerce-strategic- facilitated through the expansion of learned-20-years-after-the-asian-financial- roadmap existing ASEAN Mutual Recognition crisis/ Arrangements. • World Bank. (2018). GDP Growth • Gan, C., & Li, G. W. (1999). The economic (annual%). Retrieved from https://data. Furthermore, to fasten the process of characteristics of the Asian crisis and worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP. unleashing the full potential of ASEAN’s the IMF economic stimulus recovery KD.ZG?locations=ID-TH digital economy, it is better for ASEAN program. Canterbury: Lincoln University. to cooperate with the IMF in some areas Commerce Division. Retrieved from with a highlight that the cooperation https://researcharchive.lincoln.ac.nz/ should be built based on mutual interests. bitstream/handle/10182/594/cd_dp_69. The IMF itself through its Managing pdf;sequence=3 Director, Christian Lagarde, stated that the IMF is committed to work together • IMF. (2018a). ASEAN and the IMF: Working with ASEAN in creating a smarter and Together to Foster Inclusive Growth. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/ fairer economy (IMF, 2018a). Moreover, News/Articles/2018/02/25/sp022718- the partnership might be in the form of jakarta-MD-asean-and-the-imf-working- economic analysis, financial resources, together-to-foster-inclusive-growth and capacity development. An emphasis should be aimed on financial resources • IMF. (2018b). Finance & Development. as digital-related business services is Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/ a heavy intensive capital business that external/pubs/ft/fandd/2018/09/pdf/asean- require massive amount of funds in order digital-economy-infographic-feng.pdf to survive and expand its businesses. In addition, the financial assistance should • IMF. (2018c). Statement by IMF Managing also be in the form of investment, not Director Christine Lagarde on her Visit loans, as digital-related business has a to Lombok, Indonesia, October 8, 2018. high risk profile. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/ en/News/Articles/2018/10/08/pr18383- statement-by-imf-managing-director- christine-lagarde-on-her-visit-to-lombok References • Pratama, A. (2018). IMF-WBG Luncurkan • A.T. Kearney. (2015). The ASEAN Digital Digital Economy for All. Retrieved from Revolution. Retrieved from https:// http://www.digination.id/read/011837/imf- ink.library.smu.edu.sg/cgi/viewcontent. wbg-luncurkan-digital-economy-for-all cgi?article=1043&context=ami
• Sterland, B. (2017). The Asian financial crisis • Aisyah, R. (2018). Annual Meetings 20 years on: Lessons learnt and remaining participants surpasses govt target. challenges. Retrieved from https://www. Retrieved from http://www.thejakartapost. Issue 40/ Oktober 2018 8
The Hope Coated with Challenges- Taiwan looks south to ASEAN
Skyline Source: pxhere/CC0 Public Domain
Shan-Hua Yu, National Chengchi University, Taipei n September 18, U.S situation in Taipei may influence Taiwan’s the concept of who is the legitimate President Donald cooperation with ASEASN countries, governing body as long as both agree that Trump announced which are important issues that the there is only one China.8 Thus, during the plans to place tariffs Taiwanese administration should not administration of Ma Ying-jeou, tensions on US$200 billion overlook. between Taiwan and China somehow Oworth of Chinese products, intensifying abated and cross-straits cooperation the ongoing trade war between the Why the New Southbound policy increased. world’s two largest economies, with is initiated and Taiwan’s current major consequences on the rest of the situation. In a decade, China has rapidly developed world. Taiwan, along with others are also into one of the world powers with its suffering from the trade war, especially From the geo-political aspect, building market becoming extremely competitive. since Taipei’s trade relies heavily on ties with neighbours is an important Given the situation, Tsai Ing-wen from China, with 41% of its export going to matter in the era of globalization and the DPP party believed a re-orientation China and 19.9% of imports coming regional cooperation. Looking back was needed to enable Taiwan to stand from the mainland.1 The latest step to the history of Taiwan’s economic strong amidst the downward trend. Also, in the ongoing trade war has pushed strategy for its development and global Tsai Ing-wen aims to realize the party’s away many Taiwanese producers from engagement, it is not the first time Taipei political idealism—to weaken the bonds mainland China to avoid the rising high has put emphasis on the Southeast Asia between Taiwan and China. Thus since cost and tariff, with many looking at area. In 1993, LeeTeng-hui announced 2016, Tsai Ing-wen has been pushing the relocating to Southeast Asia,2 where the ‘Go South Policy’ after the ASEAN New Southbound Policy (NSP), which is Taiwan has the geographical edge over members held their 1992 Singapore viewed as a new strategic blueprint to 4 it competitors. Meanwhile, ASEAN Summit. During that time, Taiwan’s space build connection with Southeast Asia, presents an enormous opportunity for for engaging with the outside world South Asia, Australia and New Zealand Taiwanese businesses because Taiwan’s was shrinking due to China’s greater and to distance Taiwan’s focus away from export to ASEAN countries is up to assertiveness; thus, Lee initiated the China. The recent trade war between 5 US$ 58.6 billion in 20173 whilst the large strategy of “Pragmatic Diplomacy” to the U.S. and China also gives investors population of migrant workers and their break through the obstacles ahead, and a reason to relocate from China to second generation in Taiwan is also a the Go South Policy was born under the southbound countries. As a whole, 6 plus. Unfortunately this advantage is not this concept. Yet, during 1997-1998 , these three ‘Go South’ policies have the fully utilized by either Taiwan or ASEAN the economic crisis broke out and same intention-- decreasing the capital largely because of the sensitivities of an anti-Chinese movement erupted, inflow into China, along with the political the One-China Policy, which deters the both of which were big shocks to the purpose of reducing China’s influence. latter from fully cooperating with Taiwan, Southern Policy. At the same time, China in addition to the Taiwan’s domestic was accelerating its rapid development, Nowadays, the New Southbound Policy politics whereby the continuity of attracting the attention of foreign (NSP) aims to reinforce economic and 7 Taipei’s approach to Southeast Asia is not investors. trade cooperation, talent exchange, guaranteed. resource sharing and regional When Chen Shui-bian was in office connectivity.9 There are five major From 2016, Taiwan has launched the during 2000-2008, he started to flagship programs: Regional Agriculture New Southbound Policy (NSP) towards implement the second ‘Go South Development, Medical and Public Health Southeast Asia, South Asia, Australia and Policy’ in 2003. As Chen belongs to the Cooperation and the Development New Zealand, to enhance its cooperation “independence-leaning” Democratic of Industrial Chains, Industrial Talent with 18 countries. Yet, the reasons why Progressive Party (DPP), as a result, he Development, Industrial Innovation and the New Southbound policy is initiated, wanted to reduce Taipei’s economic Cooperation, and New Southbound how far it can go under the challenge reliance with China. Thus, enhancing Policy Forum and Youth Exchange from China and how the Taiwanese relations with Southeast Asia became Platform10.Taiwan’s investment focuses administration should take action to the focus of his strategy. Nonetheless, on Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia continue its southbound strategic in 2008, Kuomintang (KMT) - the and Singapore11, mainly on manufacturing plan to strengthen its economic ties party long in power in Taiwan’s history industry and the banking and insurance with the target countries are worth regained power. Its political intention sector12. Since international trade and discussing. This article aims to articulate is not strongly prone to independence business13 are what Taiwan’s economy these challenges that the Taiwanese but a vague relationship with mainland mainly relies on, being competitive in administration faces when implementing China under the 1992 Consensus, in the global market with an appropriate the New Southbound Policy, and it which both sides agree that there is strategy and supportive policy cannot also intends to explain why the One- only “one China” but allows each other be overemphasized, especially in the China Policy and the domestic political to interpret differently and separately face of the competition from countries Issue 40/ Oktober 2018 10
Taiwan has now only two agreements with the southbound countries: ASTEP (Agreement between Singapore and the Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu on Economic Partnership) and ANZTEC (Agreement between New Zealand and the Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu on Economic Cooperation).
like Japan, Korea, China, India, Australia, Challenges that Taiwan Faces another. In addition, many of Taiwan New Zealand and so forth, which can toward ASEAN region and invested industries in Southeast sign FTAs and form an alliance with the recommendations Asia are overlapped with those of ASEAN more easily without diplomatic other countries but Taiwan does obstacles. • Special Diplomatic Status not have diplomatic relations with ASEAN countries. Namely, how Taiwan has now only two agreements In 2016, the FDI inward flows in will Taiwan find the way to be as 15 with the southbound countries: ASTEP ASEAN is up to US$98 billion . competitive as the countries with (Agreement between Singapore and When countries are initiating diplomatic ties and FTAs and make the Separate Customs Territory of policies to capture in Southeast their joint ventures compete with Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu on Asia market, like the China’s Belt others have already become a Economic Partnership) and ANZTEC and Road Initiative and South Korea central and urgent issue that the (Agreement between New Zealand New Southern Policy, Taiwan has no Taiwanese administration is faced and the Separate Customs Territory of excuse to be out of this competition, with. Yet, the diplomatic situation Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu on but due to politics and diplomatic is even harsher now than before Economic Cooperation). As a matter factors, Taiwan finds its way blocked. due to the political issue of the of fact, Taiwan is facing the dilemma of Diplomatic factor is always the ruling party – the DPP, which China signing FTAs with these countries, since biggest obstacle to cooperating with cannot tolerate as Beijing insists on China opposed this kind of agreements its neighbors, largely because of the cross-strait unification. On the other that give the impression of state-to-state one-China policy. They find it difficult hand, ASEAN countries do not want relations14; meanwhile, ASEAN countries to negotiate with Taiwan as they do to harm their own trade if doing also dare not challenge China for fear not have diplomatic relationship. business with Taiwan when China of losing their trade opportunities and is watching closely16. For example, In contrast, China, Japan, Korea is foreign investments from Beijing. This in 2016, China publicly criticized included as ASEAN+3, meaning will influence Taiwan’s competence Singapore for undermining its One that they have better chances to when it has higher cost due to the tariff. China Policy by cooperating with build the economic partnership Taiwan acknowledges the importance Taiwan. China tries to discourage with the ASEAN members and of Southeast Asia; thus, challenges ahead Singapore from forming ties with join the shared platform with one should be discussed. Taiwan by warning or taking some actual actions; thus, Taiwan has harm domestic agriculture. In periods of training and experience much more difficulties and the addition, the signing of the Economic accumulations. Now in Taiwan, competition is fierce when countries Cooperation Framework Agreement there are only eight universities, around are also putting forth the (ECFA) with China has long been two official institutions and two Southeast Asia policy. an uncompleted task since 2010, private ones that concentrate on with people protesting against Southeast Asia studies18. It seems Therefore, having good cross-strait the harm to domestic industries that there is still a long way to relation with China is a big issue and hazard to Taiwan’s interest17. go when it comes to producing ahead of building good relations Generally speaking, as Southeast Asia enough related professional talents with ASEAN countries. It is a crucial has the agriculture advantage over with the necessary understanding premise for Taiwan when dealing the Taiwan, the negotiation of economic of Southeast Asia. In a word, the international affairs with any other cooperation agreements should be personnel training should not be countries, especially as there has dealt with carefully considering both interrupted and stopped due to always been rivalry between Taiwan domestic and diplomatic aspects. changes in administration since it and China in Southeast Asia. To have is a long term investment. In short, a better negotiation with the ASEAN Second, the continuity of the policy to have good development in the countries, resolving the cross-strait will also be challenged by changes ASEAN region, the policy should relation comes first and cannot be in administration, which is one of continue to go on regardless of overlooked. the characteristics of the liberal which party holds power. democracy. The two main political • Liberal Democracy Feature parties in Taiwan have the opposite Conclusion attitude towards cross-strait relation To begin with, when Taiwan attempts – the Democratic Progressive Party The hopes that Taipei witness are the to enter FTA negotiations with (DPP), which is independence- market and the great potential ahead that ASEAN countries, in addition to leaning, holding the belief that Taiwan Taiwanese companies can capture and diplomatic problems, domestic is an independent sovereign state; expect in Southeast Asia. The challenges public opinion is also important. on the other side, Kuomintang that it face are the tariff barriers when Taiwan is a liberal democracy, of (KMT) agrees on the 1992 trying to enter the market and the which its citizens’ voice counts a lot. consensus, choosing to maintain a sensitivities of Beijing. It is a responsibility According to the criteria for Most vague relationship with China; thus, for the Taiwanese administration Favored Nation (MFN) and the China also has its own opinion concerned to be sure of having National Treatment, it is a matter of upon the two parties, adjusting its enough experts in ASEAN countries, give and take. Everything is a double- stance depending on which party and to negotiate favorable economic edged sword, that is, if Taiwan were is ruling. The arguments will have a cooperation agreements so as to make not to have a FTA, high tariffs would great impact on diplomatic aspect, Taiwanese businesses competitive in a be imposed on some products especially the continuity of the better environment with less obstacles such as steel. Also, agriculture may NSP and the development process. and limitations. To conclude, the become even more vulnerable and The term of the mandate for the continuity of the New Southbound policy less competitive compared to the ruling administration in Taiwan and the relation with China should be imported products if the agricultural is four years, nonetheless, the taken care of by Taiwan’s administration sector must open up. This may achievement of the policy should regardless of which party is ruling. arouse people awareness and raise be ongoing in the long term. That intensive debates around Taiwan. is to say, New Southbound Policy The implementation of the New Taiwan is a liberal society with the may be questioned and its renewal Southbound Policy calls for long-term right of free speech; thus, to date, is dependent on who wins the next strategies and full understanding of the there have been several protests Taiwanese elections. main countries in Southeast Asia and against entering the WTO or signing good cross-strait relation. Maybe this economic cooperation agreements. Last but not least, given that is one of the very issues that Taiwan Indeed, during 2003-2004, there ASEAN countries are different has to deal with prior to any external were a number of ‘Rice Bombing’ from one another, each having cooperation. incidents, whereby protesters its respective culture, language, planted bombs along with the notes politics, and so forth, it is a must of “no importing rice” in public to cultivate professionalism of the areas to urge the administration diplomatic staff so as to go deep not to enter the WTO as it would into each state, which calls for long Issue 40/ Oktober 2018 12
End Note 7. Tsun-tzu Kristy Hsu (2017) A Review of from http://focustaiwan.tw/news/ Taiwan’s Old and New Go South Policy: aeco/201712150025.aspx An Economic Perspective. Prospect 1. Ministry of Economic Affairs, R.O.C Journal ; 18 (2017 / 10 / 01), P63 - 87 13. Joshua P. Meltzer (2014, February 24) (2018, March 30) Taiwan’s Economic Opportunities and Retrieved fromhttps://goo.gl/7M1hFd 8. Eleanor Albert (2018, June 15)China- Challenges and the Importance of the Taiwan Relations.Retrieved fromhttps:// Trans-Pacific PartnershipRetrieved from 2. Cheng Ting-Fang and Kensaku Ihara. www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan- https://goo.gl/4YyyQz (2018, August 16) Trade war fuels relations Taiwanese producers’ withdrawal from 14. Ralph Jennings (2014, Mar 24) Protests China. Retrieved fromhttps://goo.gl/ 9. Executive Yuan, Republic of In Taiwan: A Long-Term Threat To Foreign r8AoLP. China (Taiwan) (2017, May Trade?Retrieved from https://goo. 15) New Southbound Policy gl/9nRpXi 3. http://www.mof.gov.tw/File/ achievementsRetrieved fromhttps:// Attach/78186/File_12262.pdf english.ey.gov.tw/News_Hot_Topic. 15. AEC_Chartbook_2017https://www. aspx?n=F24AD2B907DE41B5 aseanstats.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/ 4. Kwei-Bo Huang (2018) Taiwan´s AEC_Chartbook_2017.pdf New Southbound Policy: Background, 10. Kwei-Bo Huang (2018) Taiwan´s Objectives, Framework And Limits. New Southbound Policy: Background, 16. ASEAN Today (2018, MARCH 12) Why Objectives, Framework And Limits. Taiwan’s most recent pivot to Southeast 5. Ngeow Chow Bing (2017) Taiwan’s Asia is its best yet Retrieved from Go South Policy:Déjà vu All Over 11. Richard C. Bush (2018, July 30) https://goo.gl/hJoF5a Again?Contemporary Southeast Asia Vol. Taiwan’s engagement with Southeast 39, No. 1 (2017), pp. 96–126 Asia is making progress under the New 17. Ralph Jennings (2010, JUNE 26) Southbound Policy. Retrieved from Thousands protest in Taiwan against 6. Ngeow Chow Bing (2017) Taiwan’s https://goo.gl/9uKUaL China trade deal. Retrieved from https:// Go South Policy:Déjà vu All Over www.reuters.com/article/us-taiwan- Again?Contemporary Southeast Asia Vol. 12. Liao Yu-yang and Kuan-lin Liu (2017, china-protest-idUSTRE65P14C20100626 39, No. 1 (2017), pp. 96–126 December 15) Taiwanese investment in Southeast Asia up in 2016. Retrieved 18. http://c058.wzu.edu.tw/category/141100
Source: pxhere.com Against All Odds: The New Southbound Policy and ASEAN’s Continued Engagement with Taipei
Public building Source: stimson.org
Hana Hanifah, Researcher at ASEAN Studies Program, The Habibie Center Issue 40/ Oktober 2018 14
n her inaugural speech on May trade.4 Furthermore, the alliance between combined with their natural resources 20, 2016, Tsai Ing-wen announced the United States and Taipei, and Beijing’s endowment, are seen to provide valuable a new approach for Taipei’s disapproval of it, has also raised the economic potential for investment.8 external economic policy, called concern over the stability of the region.5 Collectively, ASEAN countries have the New Southbound Policy, Yet, against these hurdles, ASEAN become Taipei’s second largest export Iwhich targets the ten countries of the countries continue their engagement market and investment destination.9 As Association of Southeast Asian Nations with Taipei. Why is that? How do ASEAN of September 2018, a total of 699,379 (ASEAN) amongst others. Aside from countries actually view their relations with workers from Indonesia, Philippines, promoting closer economic cooperation, Taipei? This article seeks to address the Thailand, and Vietnam migrated to Taipei what separates the New Southbound questions by examining ASEAN countries’ and have taken different roles in various Policy from Taipei’s previous Southward general position in their engagement with industries, including agriculture, textiles, Policy in 1990s and early 2000s is its Taipei. It argues that ASEAN countries’ electronics, and service sector.10 In emphasis on people-centric strategy to approach to the island generally remain education, Taipei has added the quota of sustain economic benefit and build mutual pragmatically cautious as they seek to scholarships for Malaysian and Indonesian understanding. 1 Despite the critics that sustain valuable economic partnership with students to increase the number of ASEAN point to the policy as a competitor to Taipei and at the same time maintaining students studying at universities there.11 China’s One Belt One Road initiative, their commitment to the status quo to In tourism, the number of tourists from the New Southbound Policy has been avoid instability in the region. ASEAN countries has reportedly grown framed mainly as Taipei’s strategy to by 16 percent between 2015 and 2016, avoid “overreliance on a single market” ASEAN countries’ relations with supported by Taipei’s initiatives such as visa by expanding the “scope and diversity of Taipei: economic first exemption and development of Muslim Taiwan’s external economy,” as well as to friendly facilities.12 expand people-based relations through a It is not surprising that ASEAN member soft policy.2 states were chosen to be the main On the other side, Taipei has not become anchor for the New Southbound Policy. ASEAN Countries’ main partner. Despite The New Southbound Policy has been Historically, since 1994, when Lee Tenghui ASEAN countries’ standing as the second welcomed in Southeast Asia. However, it is officially launched the “Go South” policy, largest outward direct investment (ODI) not without challenges. Taipei’s engagement Taipei has been consistently trying to boost destination and trade partner, its share with Southeast Asian countries remains its ties with Southeast Asian countries was far below China. ASEAN-6 (Singapore, limited due to its unique political standing in order to prevent overdependence on Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and the influence of the ‘One China’ China’s economy.6 Under the current Tsai and Philippines) only accounted for 13 principle. Since entering into diplomatic Ing-Wen’s administration, Southeast Asia percent of Taipei’s total ODI, whilst China relations with Beijing, ASEAN countries has also been emphasised as Taipei’s main accounted for 62 percent of it. On trade, terminated formal diplomatic ties with external policy focus, not only to sustain ASEAN-6 only accounted for about 15 Taipei. Moreover, unlike China who has trade and investment ties, but also to boost percent, which was only half of China been part of ASEAN’s full dialogue partners the tourism sector and people-to-people and Hong Kong’s share.13 Meanwhile in since 1996, Taipei has been excluded relations.7 Southeast Asia, Taipei’s total trade only from the formal ASEAN mechanism.3 accounted for 4.2 percent of ASEAN’s The Southbound policy’s success is also From Taipei’s standpoint, the region has total trade, only a third of China’s total questionable as China remains Taipei’s become particularly attractive due to its trade, which reached 15.2 percent.14 Taipei’s biggest trading partner, accounting for rapid economic development. ASEAN share of total FDI inflows in ASEAN (1.9 more than 30 percent of Taipei’s total countries’ abundant young labour forces, percent) was also not significant compared
Taipei’s engagement with Southeast Asian countries remains limited due to its unique political standing and the influence of the ‘One China’ principle. to Japan (12.9 percent), United States (12.8 has been successful in achieving all of its framing of the New Southbound Policy that percent), and China’s (6 percent) share.15 goals, the commitment from Taipei and the makes it acceptable for ASEAN countries. targeted ASEAN countries to implement it In addition, Taipei’s engagement with indicates both parties’ interest to maintain Political framing of Taipei’s policy towards Southeast Asia has not reached the region the continuity of their relations. Overall, ASEAN countries matters because evenly. Its economic connectivity remains the centrality of economic sector in policy the region is particularly interested in concentrated in Singapore, which is the framing has enabled the New Southbound maintaining stability and staying out of only member of ASEAN who has a free Policy to be well received by ASEAN direct confrontation between any major trade agreement with Taipei. About 42 countries and sustained the engagement powers, including China. As a region that percent of Taipei’s ODI and 31 percent of between Taipei and the region. has often become a stage for power its trade in the region was concentrated competition between countries who seek in Singapore.16 Vietnam is the second Not just economic, the New Southbound political or strategic influence, Southeast biggest partner for Taipei in ASEAN, Policy also has some political implications Asian countries have generally refer to accounting for 37 percent of ODI and 16 for ASEAN countries. The next section ASEAN mechanism, principles, and norms percent of total trade in the region, with elaborates on that point and explains to guide the way they interact with each particular concentration on manufacturing the general political standing of ASEAN other and external actors so it will not industries.17 Meanwhile in Malaysia, countries in accepting the New trigger geopolitical competition that Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia, Southbound Policy. might turn the members into rivals and Taipei’s investment remains very small, each disturb the momentum of nation building accounting for only about 4 to 6 percent of Handle with care: Southeast Asia’s and economic development.26 ASEAN’s the island’s total ODI in the region.18 cautious engagement with Taipei priority in safeguarding regional stability, its openness and willingness to engage with Similar to the trade and investment pattern, Other than being emphasised as economic different external actors as to maintain Taipei has also not contributed significantly cooperation, the New Southbound peace and inclusivity, as well as its strong to ASEAN’s tourism sector. Tourists coming Policy has also been framed as a friendly interest to maintain autonomy through from Taipei only accounted for about 2 political engagement. The absence of the principle of non-intervention and percent of the total tourists in the region, formal diplomatic relations with ASEAN consistent proactive roles in managing which was way below China with total countries has pushed Taipei to creatively regional problems, are considered to be share of 17 percent in 2015.19 In education, foster bilateral engagement through other part of the key features that have informed students from ASEAN countries also still channels. For example, the Taipei authorities the way Southeast Asian countries build prefer to go to countries such as United endorses collaboration between local relations with other parties.27 Despite many Kingdom, Australia, United States, and Japan governments through “city diplomacy” criticisms, ASEAN mechanism has actually compared to Taipei.20 Conversely, it seems to support business relations, trade, and been very helpful to provide predictability like the ASEAN region is not amongst the investments between cities in the island and a sense of homogeneity of Southeast 22 top education destinations of students and Southeast Asia. Collaboration Asian countries’ general attitude and from Taipei, and it is still not clear whether between civil society organisations (CSOs) interest when dealing with external actors. Taipei’s authorities encourage its students and non-governmental organisations Accordingly, ASEAN countries’ acceptance to study the region that has increasingly (NGOs) has been endorsed to forge of the New Southbound Policy and their been seen as one of its important partner. regional network and deepen the ties overall engagement with Taipei can also 23 between Taipei and ASEAN countries. be explained as a reflection of these key The above numbers indicate that Taipei and Furthermore, the New Southbound priorities and principles. ASEAN countries ties remain primarily Policy has also been carefully designed as in the economy. Despite the low share a strategy to diversify Taipei’s cultural and Essentially, Taipei is seen primarily as an of Taipei’s trade and investment in the economic linkages in the region, not to economic actor and partnership with region, the island remains an attractive compete with China’s One Belt One Road the region is mainly driven by practical partner for ASEAN countries due to its initiative or to replace cross-strait ties.24 consideration of mutual benefit from their comparative advantage in industrialisation The policy is framed to be an exercise of economic cooperation. However, mutual and technology.21 Furthermore, Taipei is soft power, which rests on the principle benefit alone is not sufficient. ASEAN still one of the most popular destinations of mutual benefits and enhancement of countries put regional stability as a high for ASEAN countries’ migrant workers socio-cultural relations through intensifying priority, so whilst every member state is to improve their welfare. Accordingly, people-to-people relations. It has become free to enter into any partnership that is Taipei is seen primarily as an economic a tool for Taipei to escape isolation and deemed to be mutually beneficial, they actor and the partnership with them is remain active, particularly to forge closer should also make sure that the partnership mainly driven by pragmatic economic attachment with various countries and would not threaten the stability of the consideration. Whilst it is still too soon to play a more important role in regional region. In this regards, Taipei will be call whether the New Southbound Policy prosperity and stability.25 It was this careful perceived as a good friend and the New Issue 40/ Oktober 2018 16
Southbound Policy will be welcomed in social condition is relatively easier. The relationship. Taipei should also make the region as long as the relations will not anti-Chinese sentiment in some Southeast more efforts to understand how ASEAN disrupt regional stability. With particular Asian countries is, indeed, one of the works and how the institution has shaped priority in the economic sector and biggest challenges to protect the rights of interaction in the region to design more Taipei’s careful move to emphasise that overseas Chinese in the region and sustain precise approach to engage with ASEAN the policy is not meant to be a political good bilateral relations between Taipei and countries and prevent misunderstandings. tool to compete directly with China, the ASEAN countries. The New Southbound Taipei should understand that ASEAN acceptance of the New Southbound Policy Policy’s strong commitment in the people countries generally have the interest to is not seen to be a violation to the ‘One connection should also be directed to remain neutral and autonomous in the China Principle,’ thus it is not something nurture mutual understanding and ease this middle of its sovereignty dispute with that is particularly threatening to the sentiment in order to support business and China. For that reason, it is best for Taipei political stability in the region. It will be investment in the region. to maintain reasonable expectations and interesting for further research to test this not to push for deeper political attachment assertion and evaluate it against China’s On the other side, migrant workers to ensure the New Southbound Policy perception of the policy in the region. from ASEAN countries have existed for could be implemented in tandem with years in Taipei, some even settled as a stable relations with China as well as For ASEAN countries, there is also a permanent residents and build families with Southeast Asia. perception that relation with Taipei and the local people, forming cultural and social implementation of the New Southbound understanding which could potentially Conclusion policy will send a signal, particularly to be used to form a sense of community China, that their interests matter and that amongst the people. Although there has Within the ASEAN region, Taipei is the link with Taipei is valued in the region. not been an elaborate research about deemed to be a valuable economic partner. Put simply, ASEAN countries are arguably the impact of Southeast Asian people However, due to China’s persistent displaying a signal of autonomy to China presence as residence in Taipei, concluding strong political and economic influence, when they enter into partnership with from general observations, it seems like Taipei’s unresolved dispute with Beijing, Taipei through the New Southbound Policy. local people have become familiar with which is viewed as a potential threat to Whilst remaining cautious to the possible Southeast Asian countries, particularly regional stability, remains to be one of the backlash that could result from closer the culture and the people, through their most challenging obstacles for Taipei and partnership with Taipei, ASEAN countries everyday interactions with Southeast Southeast Asian countries to deepen their have also shown notable determination to Asian people. Some local people have also ties. This is the main reason why the New display their independence and inclusivity shown special interest to learn more about Southbound Policy should continue to be to welcome any actor that they deemed Southeast Asian countries, including the presented mainly as economic partnership valuable to their interests. This display language and the culture. This particular that follows ASEAN norms and principles of autonomy, however, continues to be kind of bond should be further developed in maintaining regional stability. Taipei’s challenging, and quite possibly dangerous, to support the economic and political understanding and support to ASEAN’s as there are still some vital interests in the side of the partnership as both Taipei and norms and principles will also be helpful region involving China’s strategic security ASEAN put strong emphasise on the to navigate the strategy to deal with ten position in the South China See as well people element in their policy priority. very diverse nations. In the future, it will be as their economic presence as one of the interesting to pay a close attention to the biggest partners in trade and investment. Going forward with the partnership, dynamics of domestic politics in the region, ASEAN countries and Taipei should always ASEAN countries and Taipei should remain including the implication of Malaysia’s remain cautious about this. cautious to China’s political and economic current election, the upcoming Indonesia’s influence in the region. Taipei’s disputed presidential election as well as the prospect Links with Taipei is also seen as important sovereignty and both parties’ relative of Vietnam’s new leadership, and whether to the perceived cultural ties, which came dependence towards China’s economy are they will shift the perception and interest from the people-to-people relations the main factors that make them vulnerable towards Taipei and the New Southbound fostered by overseas Chinese living in to possibility of China’s coercion. Whilst Policy. The dynamics in the South China the region and migrant workers who this obstacle could potentially hinder Sea as well as the changes in the Indo- live in Taipei. Networks of overseas deeper partnership between Taipei and Pacific region should also be considered businesspeople from Taipei (taishang), ASEAN countries, both parties could in analysing the future of the New which have been present for decades always try to take advantage of the Southbound Policy and Taipei’s engagement in Southeast Asian countries, have ease development of multilateral institutions with Southeast Asia. Overall, against all the the connection to foster the business as well as advancement of technology to odds, as Taipei and ASEAN countries have relations.28 Relative cultural similarities have sustain economic partnership, exchange managed to sustain their attachment to also seen as a contributing factor to foster of information, and people’s connection this point, opportunities to continue and the economic relations as adjustment to in order to move forward with the improve the relations remain positive. Endnotes 10. Ministry of Labor Republic of China 20. According to data from UNESCO Institute (Taiwan) (2018), “Table 12-5 Foreign for Statistics (2018), “Global Flow of 1. Bureau of Foreign Trade Taiwan (2016), Workers in Productive Industries and Social Tertiary-Level Students,” retrieved from ‘New Southbound Policy Promotion Plan,’ Welfare by Various Type and Nationality,” (accessed on October 2018): uis.unesco. retrieved from (accessed July 2018): https:// retrieved from (accessed October 2018): org/en/uis-student-flow www.newsouthboundpolicy.tw/English/ http://statdb.mol.gov.tw/html/mon/c12050. PageDetail.aspx?id=1cbf2e63-d6c0-40f8- htm 21. J. Meltzer (2014), “Taiwan Economic 86a8-9b2d981ad05a&pageType=SouthPolicy Opportunities and Challenges and 11. “Why Taiwan’s most recent pivot to the Importance of the Trans-Pacific 2. S. H. Kong (2017), “Taipei New Southbound Southeast Asia is its best yet,” ASEAN Today Partnership,” East Asia Policy Paper 2, Policy Not to Counter Beijing’s OBOR,” (March 12, 2018), retrieved from (accessed January 2014, retrieved from (accessed on The Sun Daily, retrieved from (accessed on October 2018): https://www.aseantoday. October 2018): https://www.brookings.edu/ on 19 June 2017): http://www.thesundaily. com/2018/03/why-taiwans-most-recent- wp-content/uploads/2016/06/taiwan-trans- my/news/2176401; X. Y. Li (2016), “Taiwan pivot-to-southeast-asia-is-its-best-yet/ pacific-partnership-meltzer-012014.pdf Plans People-Centric Drive to Wean Itself 12. Ibid. See also Taiwan Tourism Bureau (2016), off China,” The Jakarta Post, retrieved from 22. R. Hsiao (2017), “Can City Diplomacy “Muslim-friendly Environment,” retrieved (accessed on 19 June 2017): http://www. Promote the New Southbound Policy from (accessed August 2018): https://eng. thejakartapost.com/seasia/2016/05/31/ and Taiwan’s International Space?” Global taiwan.net.tw/m1.aspx?sNo=0020308 taiwan-plans-people-centric-drive-to-wean- Taiwan Brief, vol. 2, issue 29, retrieved itself-off-china.html. from (accessed on October 2018): http:// 13. Based on cumulative data in 2010-2016 globaltaiwan.org/2017/07/26-gtb-2-29/ reported by DBS Group Research (2017), 3. S. C.Y. Kuy (1995), “The Political Economy “Taiwan: a closer look at the South-bound of Taiwan’s Relations with Southeast Asia: 23. B.S. Glaser, S. Kennedy, D. Mitchell, opportunities,” September 19, retrieved The Southward Policy,” Contemporary and M. P. Funaiole (2018), The New from (accessed June 2018): https://www.dbs. Southeast Asia, Vol. 17, No. 3 (December, Southbound Policy – Deepening Taiwan’s com/aics/templatedata/article/generic/data/ 1995), pp. 282-297. Regional Integration, Washington, DC: en/GR/092017/170919_insights_taiwan_ CSIS, retrieved from (accessed on June 4. E. Albert (2018), “China-Taiwan Relations,” and_asean_a_step_closer.xml 2018): https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws. Council on Foreign Relations, retrieved com/s3fs-public/publication/180613_ 14. Based on data in 2015 as of November from (accessed on July 2018): https://www. Glaser_NewSouthboundPolicy_Web. 2016 from ASEAN Secretariat (2016), “Top cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations. pdf?AcoayLFliB9_iAvbmYvP_ ten export markets and import origins jM27mEXw5xL 5. Ibid. 2015,” ASEAN Statistics, retrieved from (accessed October 2018): https://asean.org/ 24. Ibid. 6. R. Sun (2017), “Assessing Taiwan’s New wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Table21_as-of- Southbound Policy and the China Factor,” 6-dec-2016.pdf. 25. S. C. Y. Ku (2017), “Strategies of China’s Proceedings of 77th IASTEM International Expansion and Taiwan’s Survival in Southeast Conference, Taipei, Taiwan, 26th-27th 15. ASEAN Secretariat and United Nations Asia: a Comparative Perspective,” in Taiwan September 2017. Conference on Trade and Development and China: Fitful Embrace, L. Dittmer (Ed.), (2017), ASEAN Investment Report 2017 – Oakland, CA: University of California Press, 7. H. Marston and R.C. Bush (2018), “Taiwan’s Foreign Direct Investment and Economic p. 249-280. engagement with Southeast Asia is making Zones in ASEAN, ASEAN@50 Special progress under the New Southbound Edition, Jakarta: the ASEAN Secretariat, 26. See for example ASEAN Secretariat (2012), Policy,” Taiwan-US Quarterly Analysis, retrieved from (accessed October 2018): “Political Achievement,” retrieved from retrieved from (accessed on July 2018): https://asean.org/storage/2017/11/ASEAN- (accessed October 2018): https://asean. https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/ Investment-Report-2017.pdf, p. 75. org/?static_post=political-achievement taiwans-engagement-with-southeast- asia-is-making-progress-under-the-new- 16. DBS Group Research (2017). 27. D. F. Anwar (2018), “ASEAN Ensures Balance southbound-policy/ of Power in Asia,” Asia Global Online, April 17. Ibid. 12, retrieved from (accessed on April 2018): 8. Bureau of Foreign Trade Taiwan (2016). http://www.asiaglobalonline.hku.hk/asean- 18. Ibid. southeast-asia-balance-power/ 9. Executive Yuan, Republic of China (Taiwan) 19. ASEAN Secretariat (2017), “Top ten (2016), “New Southbound Policy Promotion 28. J. Rickards (2017), “ Taiwan Looks country/regional sources of visitors to Plan,” retrieved from (accessed 19 June Southward,” Taiwan Business Topics, May 11, ASEAN,” ASEAN Statistics, retrieved from 2017): http://english.ey.gov.tw/News_Hot_ retrieved from (accessed on October 2018): (accessed October 2018): https://asean. Topic.aspx?n=D61190201622DA50&sms=B https://topics.amcham.com.tw/2017/05/ org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Table-30- 5449820D7077391. taiwan-looks-southward/ checked.pdf
Imagine ASEAN at your fingertips thcasean.org Issue 40/ Oktober 2018 20
Wirya Adiwena is Head of International Relation ASEANASEAN ROUND-UP ROUND-UP of The Habibie Center
Indonesia says Death toll in Sulawesi quake rises past 2,000
The Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/indonesia-says-death-toll-in-sulawesi-quake-rises-to-2010/2018/10/09/ 0ad20c22-cba3-11e8-ad0a-0e01efba3cc1_story.html?utm_term=.48ab4d7fa8c6, 9 October 2018
“JAKARTA, Indonesia — The death toll detection tsunami buoys have not been from the earthquake and tsunami on working since 2012. Indonesia used to have Indonesia’s Sulawesi island has climbed past 22 buoys and these buoys should have 2,000, the disaster agency said Tuesday, as been connected to a seafloor sensor and authorities prepared to end the search transmit advance tsunami warning to the for thousands of victims feared buried Indonesian Meteorology and Geophysics in mud and rubble in the hardest-hit Agency (BMKG). However, the buoys neighborhoods.” were suspected to have been disabled by vandalism or stolen by fishermen. Agency spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho said the toll from the Sept. 28 There is also the issue of funding that meant Some international NGOs also sent twin disasters had climbed to 2,010. He related institutions could not maintain the their staff to assist in the recovery said authorities will hold prayers Thursday equipments. The Agency for the Assessment process, however there have been news to mark the end of the search in the and Application of Technology (BPPT) has mentioning that some independent foreign Petobo, Balaroa and Jono Oge areas of Palu calculated the budget for installing the buoys, aid workers were asked to leave the city, where the quake caused loose soil to stating that in order to install four buoys, the country by the Government of Indonesia. liquefy, swallowing houses and burying the Government needs Rp 20 billion and another The Government argued that foreign occupants with them. Rp 10 billion for emergency maintenance. citizens are not allowed to ’go directly to Hence, the total budget needed for four the field’ but must conduct all activities Why it matters: buoys is Rp 30 billion. If Indonesia has 22 in partnership with local partners. A buoys, it means the Government should spokesperson T the Indonesian Foreign On Friday, 28 September 2018, Sulawesi prepare at least Rp 165 billion. Ministry explained that foreign aid Island was hit by a 7.4 magnitude earthquake workers must coordinate with national and tsunami, particularly hitting the towns of Aside from the lack of early warning team, local agencies, or non-governmental Palu, Sigi, and Donggala –. As of 10 October, system, another issue highlighted during organizations that take part on rescue the death toll had reached 2,010. There are the post-disaster recovery is how the and recovery efforts. The policy aims to also 671 people reported missing. The figure Government manages foreign aid in make the role and functions of foreign will likely increase as many bodies remain Sulawesi. After the disaster, other countries aid workers clear so that their assistance buried or have not been found. have been quick to respond by giving will not hamper any rescue and recovery assistance to Indonesia. The Government efforts. While the aim of the policy is As a country that is prone to disaster, has received foreign aid from countries understandable, the Government should Indonesia is lacking an early warning such as South Korea, New Zealand, the US, communicate it well in order to reduce any system. The National Disaster Mitigation Japan, Malaysia, and Japan. This assistance is miscommunication with other countries Agency (BNPB) spokesman, Sutopo coming both from foreign governments as as the ongoing rescue effort should take Purwo Nugroho, mentioned that the early well as foreign non-government bodies. precedence. Fina Astriana is an Economic Researcher ASEANASEAN ROUND-UP ROUND-UP of the ASEAN Studies Program of The Habibie Center
Indonesia opens 2018 Asian Para Games in heartwarming ceremony
The Jakarta Post http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2018/10/07/indonesia-opens-2018-asian-para-games-in-heartwarming-ceremony.html, 7 October 2018
“Indonesia kicked off the 3rd Asian Para to the UN Convention on the Mainstreaming Games at the Gelora Bung Karno (GBK) on the Rights of of the Rights of Persons Main Stadium in Senayan, Jakarta with Persons with Disabilities with Disabilities in the a heartwarming ceremony on Saturday (UNCRPD) and ratified ASEAN Community, evening [6 October 2018]. A gigantic the convention in 2011. has finalized the ASEAN “DISABILITY” sign was placed in the Therefore, Indonesia Enabling Masterplan 2025: middle of the main stadium. Standing needs to implement Mainstreaming the Rights in front of the sign was President Joko the CRPD and develop of Person with Disabilities “Jokowi” Widodo, Indonesian archer Abdul policies that are inclusive that later will be adopted and a young wheelchair user called Bulan. for people with disabilities. by the ASEAN Leaders The government has in November 2018. Arrows were then shot into the air issued several laws that Nevertheless, developing and all at once the “DIS” letters in the relate to disability, such as and implementing a sign were shattered, leaving “ABILITY” intact social welfare and public regional plan will be in the middle of the stadium, making the services. challenging due to spectators in the venue roar.” different government However, despite these system, culture, and Why it matters: existing policies, the ethnicities. implementation of the policies remains After the Asian Games concluded earlier weak. For example, in the case of Indonesia, The 2018 Asian Para Games remind us that last month, Indonesia is hosting another there are not many public transports or further efforts need to be taken to help major sporting event which is the Asian pavements that are ready to accommodate improve the welfare of the people with Para Games from October 8 to 16, 2018. people with disability. The lack of disabilities. The Indonesian government and The event is expected to host 2,831 infrastructure to support them will hinder other Southeast Asian governments should athletes from 42 countries competing in 18 their involvement in society. In addition, not only give attention to the disabled sports. In order to accommodate people people with disabilities also have barriers people when there is a specific event. They with disabilities, the government needs to in accessing education. Some people also need to continue developing infrastructure provide 300 disability-access Transjakarta get rejected in public schools. Only a few and environment that can accommodate buses and transportation from the athlete of them have managed to complete their disabled people. Moreover, not only village to the various venues. education until university level. government, private sectors, and society in general must also aware of the rights of The sporingt event plays an important In a broader context, ASEAN has also paid people with disabilities. They also need to role in raising awareness of the rights and attention to the welfare of the people with have the same opportunities and deserve opportunities for people with disabilities, disabilities. ASEAN, through the Task Force to have a better living. especially in Indonesia. Indonesia is a party RENEWABLE MARITIME AGRICULTURE IN ENERGY LOGISTICS IN ASEAN: IN ASEAN: ASEAN: TRADE AND AN INVESTMENT AN INVESTMENT INVESTMENT GUIDEBOOK GUIDEBOOK GUIDEBOOK
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The ASEAN Studies Program was established on February 24, 2010, to become a center of excellence on ASEAN related issues, which can assist in the development of the ASEAN Community by 2015. The Habibie Center through its ASEAN Studies Program, alongside other institutions working towards the same goal, hopes to contribute to the realization of a more people-oriented ASEAN that puts a high value on democracy and human rights.
The objective of the ASEAN Studies Program is not merely only to conduct research and discussion within academic and government circles, but also to strengthen public awareness by forming a strong network of civil society in the region that will be able to help spread the ASEAN message. With the establishment of ASEAN Studies Program, The Habibie Center aims to play its part within our capabilities to the ASEAN regional development.
ASEAN STUDIES PROGRAM The Habibie Center Jl. Kemang Selatan No.98, Jakarta Selatan 12560 (P.) 62 21 781 7211 (F.) 62 21 781 7212 www.habibiecenter.or.id www.thcasean.org
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