Pakistan-Iran Relations Since 9/11: Challenges, Opportunities and Prospects
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Pakistan-Iran Relations since 9/11: Challenges, Opportunities and Prospects By Tansir Abbas Hashmi MSc, International Relations. NUML, 2015 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTERS OF PHILOSOPHY International Relations To FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF MODERN LANGUAGES, ISLAMABAD October 2019 © Tansir Abbas Hashmi ii THESIS/DISSERTATION AND DEFENCE APPROVAL FORM The undersigned certify that they have read the following thesis, examined the defense, are satisfied with the overall exam performance, and recommend the thesis to the Faculty of Social Sciences for acceptance. Thesis/ Dissertation Title: Pakistan-Iran Relations since 9/11: Challenges, Opportunities and Prospects Submitted by: Tansir Abbas Hashmi Registration #: 1182-MPhil/IR/S16 Masters of Philosophy Name in Full International Relations Discipline Dr. Muhammad Riaz Shad Research Supervisor Signature of Research Supervisor Prof. Dr. Adnan Sarwar Khan HoD (IR) Signature of HoD (IR) Prof. Dr. Shahid Siddiqui Dean (FSS) Signature of Dean (FSS) Brig. Muhammad Ibrahim DG NUML Signature of DG iii CANDIDATE DECLARATION FORM I Tansir Abbas Hashmi Son of Nazar Abbas Hashmi Registration # 1180-MPhil/IR/S16 Discipline International Relations Candidate of Masters of Philosophy at the National University of Modern Languages do hereby declare that the thesis: Pakistan-Iran Relations since 9/11: Challenges, Opportunities and Prospects submitted by me in partial fulfillment of MPhil degree, is my original work, and has not been submitted or published earlier. I also solemnly declare that it shall not, in future, be submitted by me for obtaining any other degree from this or any other university or institution. I also understand that if evidence of plagiarism is found in my thesis dissertation at any stage, even after the award of degree, the work may be cancelled and the degree revoked. 30-11-2019 Date Signature of Candidate Tansir Abbas Hashmi Name of Candidate iv ABSTRACT Thesis Title: Pakistan-Iran Relations since 9/11: Challenges, Opportunities and Prospects Pakistan and Iran are natural allies on the basis of common history and culture. They are important states geo-strategically in world affairs not only due to economic importance but also for having a distinct geo-strategic location, which makes them vital in regional and world geo-politics. Despite having many commonalties in culture, history, religion and geostrategic environment, they could not develop a sustainable multidimensional relationship. In the beginning, they were able to develop a geo-economic and strategic partnership. However, a number of external factors, including the cold-war power politics, Soviet-Afghan war and Iran-Saudi estranged relations, created structural constraints in their relations. After 9/11, the dynamics of regional and international political environment changed that impacted the Pak-Iran bilateral relationship and gave new dimensions to their relations. This study examines the evolving nature of Pak-Iran relations since 9/11 with a focus on the challenges, issues and opportunities. This study finds that Pak-Iran relationship still faces various challenges, however, a number of developments, particularly China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), both states’ partnership with China and reconciliation process in Afghanistan, offer opportunities for the development of closer relationship. Further, the study concludes that the two countries can overcome the challenges and issues if they move forward to realize the full potential of the opportunities. Keywords: CPEC, SCO, Indo-Iran strategic relationship, Afghanistan, Indo-US strategic partnership. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapters Pages THESIS/DISSERTATION AND DEFENCE APPROVAL FORM............................. ii CANDIDATE DECLARATION FORM ....................................................................... iii ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................... iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................. v ACKNOWLEDGEMENT............................................................................................... ix ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................................... x INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................. 1 Statement of the Problem ................................................................................................ 4 Objectives of the Study ................................................................................................... 5 Research Questions ......................................................................................................... 5 Literature Review............................................................................................................ 5 Theoretical Framework ................................................................................................. 11 Research Methodology ................................................................................................. 14 Significance of the Study .............................................................................................. 15 Delimitation .................................................................................................................. 16 Chapters’ Breakdown.................................................................................................... 17 CHAPTER 1 .................................................................................................................... 18 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF PAKISTAN-IRAN RELATIONS .................. 18 Phase 1: Cultural and Strategic Dimensions of Pakistan-Iran Relations 1947-1979 .... 18 1.1 Shared History and Culture..................................................................................... 19 1.2 Security Challenges and Strategic Convergence .................................................... 23 1.3 Bilateral and Regional Economic Cooperation....................................................... 26 2 Phase 2: Decade of Decline in Pakistan-Iran Relations (1979-1990) ........................ 28 2.1 Post-Islamic Revolution Iran’s Foreign Policy ....................................................... 29 2.2 Iran’s Anti-Americanism and Change Regional Policies ....................................... 31 2.3 Iran-Iraq War and Soviet Intervention in Afghanistan ........................................... 32 vi Phase 3: Pakistan-Iran Frosty Relationship (1990-2001) ............................................. 34 3.1 Afghanistan Crisis, Taliban’s Factor and Jihadi Politics ........................................ 34 3.2 Pakistan’s Alignment to Saudi Arabia and Rise of Sectarianism ........................... 36 3.3 Divergent Regional Approaches ............................................................................. 39 Phase 4: Normalization in Pakistan-Iran Relations (2001-2013) ................................. 41 4.1 Downfall of Taliban Regime and Converging Interests ......................................... 41 4.2 Improvement in Economic Cooperation ................................................................. 43 Phase 5: Cooperation in Pakistan-Iran (2013-2018) ..................................................... 45 5.1 Withdrawal of the US Military Forces and Vacuum of Power............................... 46 5.2 China’s Emerging Role ........................................................................................... 47 5.3 Joint Comprehension Plan of Action (JCPOA) and its impacts on Pakistan-Iran Relations........................................................................................................................ 49 CHAPTER 2 .................................................................................................................... 51 CHALLENGES FOR PAKISTAN-IRAN RELATIONS............................................ 51 2.1 Pakistan-Iran Relations in the Context of Post-9/11 Terrorism .............................. 52 2.1.1 Pakistan’s Support to Global War on Terror (GWOT)........................................ 52 2.1.2 Iran’s Policy on Afghanistan and GWOT............................................................ 55 2.1.3 US Invasion of Afghanistan ................................................................................. 58 2.2 Challenges for Pakistan-Iran Relations: Three levels of Analysis.......................... 61 2.2.1 International level ................................................................................................ 61 2.2.1.1 US Supremacy in Global Affairs ...................................................................... 61 2.2.1.2 Major Powers’ role in Pakistan-Iran Relations ................................................. 64 2.2.1.3 Saudi Factor ...................................................................................................... 65 2.2.2 Regional level ...................................................................................................... 67 2.2.2.1 Changing Dynamics of South-Asia after 9/11 .................................................. 68 2.2.2.2 Indian Hegemonic Moves vis-à-vis Pakistan.................................................... 69 2.2.2.3 India’s Investment on Chahbahar Port.............................................................