2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season

2015 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON: TROPICAL STORMS ANA AND BILL RUSH IN ON EXPECTED QUIET SEASON The 1957 and 1965 seasons were both moderate El Niño seasons and saw major hurricane landfalls with Audrey (1957) and Betsy (1965).

As with any season, a landfalling hurricane a catastrophic hurricane landfall. generally south of 20oN. The 1957 and can be a serious threat regardless of Landfalls are determined by weather 1965 seasons were both moderate El seasonal outlooks for the Atlantic Basin patterns during a hurricane’s lifetime, Niño years, but witnessed the landfall at large. not pre-season estimates of hurricane of major hurricanes — Audrey (1957) frequency. The recent landfall of Tropical and Betsy (1965). The 1957 season For the North Atlantic Basin, seasonal Storms Ana and Bill stands as a reminder experienced only three hurricanes in the outlook providers are expecting tropical to this point. Atlantic Basin at large and Audrey was activity to fall below the long-term the only one of the three to make U.S. average of 1955-2014. Common factors Indeed, much of the Atlantic Main landfall. Audrey formed in the Gulf of include a continuing El Niño and cool Development region currently carries Mexico and made landfall as a notorious sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the cooler sea-surface temperatures, but the Category 4 hurricane near the Texas- Atlantic Main Development Region waters of the northern Caribbean and Louisiana border. (AMDR) (the area of the tropical Atlantic northern Gulf of Mexico are warmer than between Africa and the Gulf of Mexico, average. Tropical storm development While we indeed may see a quiet season, specifically 10oN-20oN and 20oW-85oW). close to the mainland carries a higher warm waters in the northern Gulf of chance of landfall. Mexico and northern Caribbean warrant Historically, it is clear that the relationship a moment of pause. As with any season, between basin activity and landfalls is Also, it is accepted that El Niño landfall is a possibility and warrants very volatile. Greater Atlantic activity conditions tend to suppress hurricane review of hurricane plans and procedures does not necessarily equate to more development in the Atlantic Basin, but by both property owners and the (re) tropical storm landfalls, just as a quiet scientific research reveals that this effect insurance industry alike. season does not guarantee safety from is strongest in the deep tropics, and

1 2015 Seasonal Outlooks F-F-11 || U.S. LANDFALL Landfall TO BASIN to B RATIOasin –R DETECTEDatio – detected HURRICANES H (1urricanes900-2014) (1900-2014) F-3 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS OF MAY 25, 2015 T-1 | SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE 2015 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON

Suggest Reduced Named Major 100 Source Hurricanes8 A.C.E.10 Basin Activity Storms7 Hurricanes9 Post-War Satellite Development Near United States Still Aerial Detection Detection WSI1 (May 26) 9 5 1 - Possible – U.S. Landfalls Uncertain 80 CSU3 (June 1) 8 3 1 40

4 As illustrated in Figure 1 (right), the historical UK Met (May 21) 8 5 - 74 proportion between basin counts and 60 NOAA5 (May 27) 6-11 3-6 0-2 37-79 landfalls has been very volatile on an annual NCSU2 (April 16) 4-6 1-3 1 -

6 basis. There is only a weak correlation Ratio (% ) 1995-2014 Mean 14.8 7.6 3.5 131 40 between hurricane counts in the Atlantic 1955-2014 Mean6 11.2 6.1 2.5 100 Basin and the number of U.S. landfalls. The statistical significance is a subject of some 20 1 Weather Services Incorporated/The Weather Channel 2 North Carolina State University. (Xie et. al.,2015) debate in the scientific community (Coughlin 3 Colorado State University (Klotzbach, Gray) 4 U.K. Met Oce, 2015: North Atlantic tropical storm seasonal forecast 2015. et al., 2009; Dailey et al., 2009). http://www.metoce.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/seasonal/northatlantic2015. Accessed May 2015. 0 5 Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 6 Hurricane Research Division (NOAA) 15 0 00 10 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 97 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 010 19 1905 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 1 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 2 7 Tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of at least 39 mph Source: Guy Carpenter 8 Tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of at least 74 mph 9 Hurricane with maximum sustained surface winds of at least 111 mph (Category 3 or higher on the Sar-Simpson scale) Note declining trend over time with post-war overﬂight detection (late 1940s) and satellite detection (1970s). Source: Oce of Satellite and Product Operations (NOAA) 10 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (or A.C.E.) is deﬁned as the sum of squares of six-hourly maximum sustained wind speeds (in knots) Note variability from year to year and high ratio in 1985. Note the patches below normal in the deep tropics. for all tropical storms or hurricanes. Units are x104 knots2. This index is a proxy for the energy expended by a tropical cyclone. Note the area above normal near the southeast U.S., northern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

The year to year volatility warrants preparation Factors of greatest influence include: The predictions of seasonal outlook for any season. The quiet 1992 season saw providers, including the Colorado State 1. A moderate El Niño expected through the only four hurricanes with one making a very University team of Professors William A. 2015 hurricane season. impactful and historic U.S. landfall. Meanwhile, Gray and Phillip J. Klotzbach, are included the 2010 season saw 19 named storms and 2. Cooler than normal SSTs in the AMDR. in Table 1 below. 12 hurricanes, without a single U.S. landfall. In T-1 | SEASOnal Outlooks for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season 1985 there were seven hurricanes in the basin, Named Major and six of these made U.S. landfall (some of Source Hurricanes8 A.C.E.10 Storms7 Hurricanes9 which were very impactful). 1 Seasonal activity predictions for the basin WSI (May 26) 9 5 1 - are valuable, but the impacts of even a single CSU3 (June 1) 8 3 1 40 tropical storm or hurricane landfall (quiet UK Met4 (May 21) 8 5 - 74 season or not) can be quite severe. Historical experience warrants proper review and NOAA5 (May 27) 6-11 3-6 0-2 37-79 preparation of hurricane plans by all interests NCSU2 (April 16) 4-6 1-3 1 - from individual homeowners to businesses to 1995-2014 Mean6 14.8 7.6 3.5 131 the (re)insurance industry at large. 1955-2014 Mean6 11.2 6.1 2.5 100 In light of this reality, seasonal outlook providers expect 2015 basin counts to fall 1 Weather Services Incorporated/The Weather Channel below the long-term mean of 1955-2014. 2 North Carolina State University. (Xie et. al.,2015) 3 Colorado State University (Klotzbach, Gray) The expected counts also fall clearly below 4 U.K. Met Office, 2015: North Atlantic tropical storm seasonal forecast 2015. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/seasonal/northatlantic2015. Accessed May 2015. the short-term 1995-2014 mean, reflecting 5 Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) the current warm phase of the Atlantic 6 Hurricane Research Division (NOAA) 7 Tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of at least 39 mph Multidecadal Oscillation. 8 Tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of at least 74 mph 9 Hurricane with maximum sustained surface winds of at least 111 mph (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) 10 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (or A.C.E.) is defined as the sum of squares of six-hourly maximum sustained wind speeds (in knots) for all tropical storms or hurricanes. Units are x104 knots2. This index is a proxy for the energy expended by a tropical cyclone.

F-4 | HURRICANE AUDREY (1957) F-5 | HURRICANE BETSY (1965)

SOURCE: Guy Carpenter with data from HURDAT 2 (Hurricane Research Division/NOAA) SOURCE: Guy Carpenter with data from HURDAT 2 (Hurricane Research Division/NOAA)

F-2 | AVERAGE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FOR THE PACIFIC BASIN

Source: Climate Prediction Center (NOAA) Note the warm pool near 0o N by 180o W and warmer waters centered along the equatorial regions of the East Paciﬁc. F-1 | U.S. LANDFALL TO BASIN RATIO – DETECTED HURRICANES (1900-2014) F-3 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS OF MAY 25, 2015 T-1 | SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE 2015 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON

Named Major Source Hurricanes8 A.C.E.10 100 Storms7 Hurricanes9 Post-War Satellite Aerial Detection Detection WSI1 (May 26) 9 5 1 - 80 CSU3 (June 1) 8 3 1 40 UK Met4 (May 21) 8 5 - 74

60 NOAA5 (May 27) 6-11 3-6 0-2 37-79 NCSU2 (April 16) 4-6 1-3 1 -

6 Ratio (% ) 1995-2014 Mean 14.8 7.6 3.5 131 40 1955-2014 Mean6 11.2 6.1 2.5 100

20 1 Weather Services Incorporated/The Weather Channel 2 North Carolina State University. (Xie et. al.,2015) 3 Colorado State University (Klotzbach, Gray) 4 U.K. Met Oce, 2015: North Atlantic tropical storm seasonal forecast 2015. http://www.metoce.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/seasonal/northatlantic2015. Accessed May 2015. 0 5 Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 6 Hurricane Research Division (NOAA) 15 0 00 10 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 97 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 010 19 1905 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 1 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 2 7 Tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of at least 39 mph Source: Guy Carpenter 8 Tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of at least 74 mph 9 Hurricane with maximum sustained surface winds of at least 111 mph (Category 3 or higher on the Sar-Simpson scale) Note declining trend over time with post-war overﬂight detection (late 1940s) and satellite detection (1970s). Source: Oce of Satellite and Product Operations (NOAA) 10 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (or A.C.E.) is deﬁned as the sum of squares of six-hourly maximum sustained wind speeds (in knots) Note variability from year to year and high ratio in 1985. Note the patches below normal in the deep tropics. for all tropical storms or hurricanes. Units are x104 knots2. This index is a proxy for the energy expended by a tropical cyclone. Note the area above normal near the southeast U.S., northern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

F-4 | HURRICANE AUDREY (1957) F-5 | HURRICANE BETSY (1965)

SOURCE: Guy Carpenter with data from HURDAT 2 (Hurricane Research Division/NOAA) SOURCE: Guy Carpenter with data from HURDAT 2 (Hurricane Research Division/NOAA)

El Niño SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

The ENSO phenomenon is signaled by SSTs Niño are found to be strongest in the deep As always there are no absolutes to hurricane in the tropical East Pacific, with warm “El tropics (Kossin et al., 2010) and for African predictability. The 1957 hurricane season Niño” phases and cold “La Niña” phases. “Cape Verde” type storms. produced three hurricanes. One of those The large-scale circulations associated with hurricanes, Audrey, made landfall on the El Niño enhance wind shear (changing According to the NOAA Climate Prediction northern Gulf of Mexico as an impactful wind speed with height) in the tropical Center (CPC), El Niño conditions are in Category 4 hurricane. The 1965 season Atlantic. The enhanced wind shear disrupts place and there is a 90 percent chance of produced four hurricanes, with Hurricane tropical cyclone development, generally ongoing El Niño conditions through the Betsy, a Category 4 storm, making U.S. landfall resulting in fewer tropical cyclones in the upcoming season. Expectations are for a on the northern Gulf. Both the 1957 and Atlantic Basin. The suppressing effects of El moderate El Niño. 1965 seasons were moderate El Niño years.

F-2 F-2| AVERAGE | AVERAGE SEA-SURFACE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ANOMALIES FOR FO THER THE PACIFIC PACIFIC BASIN BASIN

Source: Climate Prediction Center (NOAA) Note the warm pool near 0o N by 180o W and warmer waters centered along the equatorial regions of the East Paciﬁc.

3 F-1 | U.S. LANDFALL TO BASIN RATIO – DETECTED HURRICANES (1900-2014) F-3 F-3| SEA-SURFACE | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE TEMPe ANOMALIESRATURE AN ASO OFMALIES MAY 25, as 2015 OF May 25, 2015 T-1 | SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE 2015 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON

Named Major Source Hurricanes8 A.C.E.10 100 Storms7 Hurricanes9 Post-War Satellite Aerial Detection Detection WSI1 (May 26) 9 5 1 - 80 CSU3 (June 1) 8 3 1 40 UK Met4 (May 21) 8 5 - 74

60 NOAA5 (May 27) 6-11 3-6 0-2 37-79 NCSU2 (April 16) 4-6 1-3 1 -

6 Ratio (% ) 1995-2014 Mean 14.8 7.6 3.5 131 40 1955-2014 Mean6 11.2 6.1 2.5 100

Tropical Atlantic sea- 4. Disturbances adjacent to the U.S. mainland surface temperatures (SSTs) Implications and northern Caribbean may find an Seasonal outlook providers note the cooler In light of the expected El Niño and cooler environment that enables development. than average SSTs in the tropical Atlantic as a than average SSTs over the AMDR, some This applies both to disturbances that key factor for a quiet season. subtle but important factors warrant originate in the area, and also for “Cape consideration: Verde” disturbances that arrive from their Indeed, a closer look reveals cooler SSTs in Atlantic transit, even if they have not yet the AMDR. However, on closer inspection, 1. The suppressive effects of El Niño are had a chance to develop. above normal SSTs are found in an area found to be strongest over the deep tropics adjacent to the U.S. Florida coast including (Kossin et. al., 2010) and “Cape Verde” 5. Landfalls are influenced by large-scale the Bahamas and northern Caribbean. SSTs origin storms, and less pronounced for Gulf- weather patterns at the time of occurrence, are also quite warm in the northern Gulf origin storms or those of higher latitude. which cannot be forecast beyond a 14-day time frame. of Mexico (Figure 3). 2. With the moderate El Niño expected this year, tropical development may indeed So while this indeed may be a quiet year, • Disturbances adjacent to the U.S. be suppressed in the deep tropics and for the northern Gulf of Mexico and northern mainland, northern Gulf of Mexico African “Cape Verde” type storms. Caribbean are areas still to watch closely. and northern Caribbean may find an Hard experience has reminded us time and environment that enables development. 3. SSTs are somewhat cooler than normal again that a single landfalling hurricane can This applies both to disturbances that over the tropical East Atlantic, but not be very impactful, with severe consequences originate in the area and also for “Cape for the waters adjacent to Florida, the both for those affected, and for the industry Verde” disturbances arriving from their northern Caribbean or the northern at large, regardless of basin activity. Atlantic transit, even if they haven’t had a Gulf of Mexico. chance to develop. 4

F-4 | HURRICANE AUDREY (1957) F-5 | HURRICANE BETSY (1965)

SOURCE: Guy Carpenter with data from HURDAT 2 (Hurricane Research Division/NOAA) SOURCE: Guy Carpenter with data from HURDAT 2 (Hurricane Research Division/NOAA)

F-2 | AVERAGE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FOR THE PACIFIC BASIN

Named Major Source Hurricanes8 A.C.E.10 100 Storms7 Hurricanes9 Post-War Satellite Aerial Detection Detection WSI1 (May 26) 9 5 1 - 80 CSU3 (June 1) 8 3 1 40 UK Met4 (May 21) 8 5 - 74

60 NOAA5 (May 27) 6-11 3-6 0-2 37-79 NCSU2 (April 16) 4-6 1-3 1 -

6 Ratio (% ) 1995-2014 Mean 14.8 7.6 3.5 131 40 1955-2014 Mean6 11.2 6.1 2.5 100

F-1 | U.S. LANDFALL TO BASIN RATIO – DETECTED HURRICANES (1900-2014) F-3 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS OF MAY 25, 2015 T-1 | SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE 2015 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON

Named Major Source Hurricanes8 A.C.E.10 100 Storms7 Hurricanes9 Post-War Satellite Aerial Detection Detection WSI1 (May 26) 9 5 1 - 80 CSU3 (June 1) 8 3 1 40 UK Met4 (May 21) 8 5 - 74

60 NOAA5 (May 27) 6-11 3-6 0-2 37-79 NCSU2 (April 16) 4-6 1-3 1 -

6 Ratio (% ) 1995-2014 Mean 14.8 7.6 3.5 131 40 1955-2014 Mean6 11.2 6.1 2.5 100

Historical Impacts – What We Know Can Happen

Hurricane Audrey (1957) F-4 F-4| HURRICANE | HURRICANE AUDREY (1 A957)udrey (1957) F-5 | HURRICANE BETSY (1965) • Hurricane Audrey made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. • Audrey originated from a tropical wave over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. • Just prior to landfall, Audrey experienced a period of rapid development, growing from a Category 2 to a Category 4 hurricane. • Storm Surge: Estimated 8 to12 feet, with penetration as far as 25 miles inland. • Audrey rendered significant damage under storm surge to the southwest coast of Louisiana, especially for the Cameron area. An estimated 60 to 80 percent of homes were floated off their foundations. • Reliable wind observations are unavailable for a more precise estimate of sustained winds at landfall. (NHC, 2015) • The landfall location was very close to that of Hurricane Ike (2008), a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. • The 1957 tropical season was a moderate El Niño year that produced three hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin and one U.S. landfall. SOURCE: Guy Carpenter with data from HURDAT 2 (Hurricane Research Division/NOAA) SOURCE: Guy Carpenter with data from HURDAT 2 (Hurricane Research Division/NOAA) • At least 390 fatalities were reported as a result of Audrey.

F-4 | HURRICANE AUDREY (1957) Hurricane Betsy (1965) F-5 |F-5 HURRICANE | HURRICANE BETSY (1965) BETSY (1965) • Betsy made landfall on Key Largo with estimated winds of 125 mph (Category 3 hurricane ) before entering the Gulf of Mexico. • Betsy then made a second landfall near Grand Isle, Louisiana with estimated winds of 155 mph (Category 4). • Storm surge of eight feet at Big Pine Key, also with severe beach erosion along southwest Florida. • Storm surge of about 16 feet near Grand Isle, Louisiana. • Estimated economic losses of USD18.7 billion in 2010 dollars, correcting for wealth and inflation (Blake et al., 2011). • This was a very quiet season under a strong El Niño year, with only four hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin, one of which made U.S. landfall.

SOURCE: Guy Carpenter with data from HURDAT 2 (Hurricane Research Division/NOAA) SOURCE: Guy Carpenter with data from HURDAT 2 (Hurricane Research Division/NOAA) 5

F-2 | AVERAGE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FOR THE PACIFIC BASIN

Source: Climate Prediction Center (NOAA) Note the warm pool near 0o N by 180o W and warmer waters centered along the equatorial regions of the East Paciﬁc.

F-2 | AVERAGE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FOR THE PACIFIC BASIN

Source: Climate Prediction Center (NOAA) Note the warm pool near 0o N by 180o W and warmer waters centered along the equatorial regions of the East Paciﬁc. What are we preparing wind, bathymetry and coastline shape. alone did not suggest the potential for for anyway? Water intrusion will ruin the interior of such damage. any coastal property. Water velocity and Any hurricane can produce wind, surge and • Freshwater flooding: Freshwater flooding particularly wave activity can cause severe inland flood impacts. The severity and scope is affected by factors such as excessive to complete structural damage, since of impacts is not always consistent with rating rainfall, storm motion, the capacity of local water weighs about one ton per cubic on the Saffir-Simpson scale, particularly for storm-water management infrastructure yard. Water damage usually begins at the surge as we have seen with Katrina (2005) and local geography. The freshwater bottom of a structure and becomes more and Sandy (2012). impacts of Irene (2011) and Fay (2008) were severe with increasing water levels and quite severe in the New England and North • Wind: For a typical wood frame structure, wave height. With excessive water velocity Florida areas, respectively. Floodwaters can damage usually starts from the top of the or wave activity, the foundation itself ruin any structure they affect, and can even structure and most often with the roof can be dislodged, resulting in structural cause structural damage if water velocity (trees notwithstanding). These effects can failure. In extreme cases the property is sufficient. Flood damage starts at the become noticeable with sustained wind can be scoured from the foundation such bottom of the structure and increases in speeds as low as 40 mph. For more severe as Katrina (2005) in the Mississippi Gulf severity with increasing inundation height. wind events, wind damage will affect the coast area. Our most recent reminder of walls, and in extreme cases such as Andrew U.S. surge impacts is from Sandy (2012). Preparation for each of these impacts and (1992) or Charley (2004), many structures While Sandy was a post-tropical cyclone at the resulting disruption to infrastructure will be barely recognizable following the landfall, the size of the wind field and angle is an ongoing and essential process for event. Downed trees and powerlines are of landfall near Brigantine, New Jersey homeowners, businesses, government commonly found with any tropical cyclone. drove a historic surge event for the area as agencies including NOAA and FEMA, and of • Storm surge: Storm surge is related far north as Massachusetts. The severity of course the (re)insurance industry. The landfall to many factors including wind speed surge impacts was equivalent to a typical of one or two hurricanes cannot be ruled out over water, the area of water affected by Category 3 hurricane, yet the wind speeds for any season.

Closure Hurricane activity for the Atlantic Basin is projected by seasonal outlook providers to be below average for the 2015 season, but these providers all stress preparation for a landfalling hurricane, as with any season. Cool SSTs and a probable El Niño would indeed indicate reduced basin activity, although a closer look implies that these suppressing effects will be confined to the East Atlantic and deep tropics. Warm SSTs in the northern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico warrant some caution. Hurricane landfall is a threat for any hurricane season, irrespective of basin activity, as history has shown more than once.

Contacts For questions or further information, please contact: James Waller, PhD Research Meteorologist GC Analytics® Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC 215-864-3622 [email protected]

6 References Blake, E.S., Landsea, C.W. and Gibney, E.J., Klotzbach, Philip J., and Gray, William M., 2015: Pielke Jr., R.A., Gratz, J., Landsea, C.W., Collins, D., 2011: The Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense Extended range forecast of Atlantic seasonal Saunders, M.A. and Musulin, R., 2008: Normalized United States Tropical Cyclones From 1851 to hurricane activity and landfall strike probability Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900- 2010. National Weather Service. NOAA Technical for 2015. http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/ 2005. Natural Hazards Review, 9, 29-42. Memorandum NWS NHC-6. Forecasts. Accessed June, 2015. U.K. Met Office, 2015: North Atlantic tropical Climate Prediction Center, 2015: Analysis Kossin, J.P., Camargo, S.J. and Sitkowski, M., 2010: storm seasonal forecast 2015. http://www. Tools. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Climate Modulation of North Atlantic Hurricane metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/ Administration. www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Tracks. Journal of Climate, 23, 3057-3076. seasonal/northatlantic2015. Accessed May 2015. Accessed May, 2015. National Hurricane Center, 2015: Tropical Weather Services Incorporated, 2015: WSI: Lower- Coughlin, K., Bellone, E., Laepple, T., Jewson, Cyclone Reports (Hurricane Andrew, Hurricane than-Normal Tropical Activity Levels Expected in S., Nzerem, K., 2009: A relationship between Betsy, Hurricane Audrey). National Oceanic and 2015. Weather Services Incorporated. www.wsi. all Atlantic hurricanes and those that make Atmospheric Administration. www.nhc.noaa.gov. com. Accessed May, 2015. landfall in the U.S.A. Quarterly Journal of the Accessed May, 2015. Xie, L., Alfaro-Cordoba, M., Liu, B. and Fuentes, Royal Meteorological Society, 135, 371-379. Office of Satellite and Product Operations, 2015: M., 2015: 2015 Atlantic Tropical Outlook. North Dailey, P.S., Zuba, G., Ljung, G., Dima, I.M., Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts. National Carolina State University. Guin, J., 2009: On the Relationship between the Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. http:// North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/ U.S. Hurricane Landfall Risk. Journal of Applied contour/. Accessed May, 2015. Meteorology and Climatology, 48, 111-129.

About Guy Carpenter Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC is a global leader in providing and risk management; Mercer, a leader in talent, health, and it should be understood to be general insurance/ risk and reinsurance intermediary services. With over 50 offices retirement, and investment consulting; and Oliver Wyman, reinsurance information only. Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC worldwide, Guy Carpenter creates and executes reinsurance a leader in management consulting. Marsh & McLennan is makes no representations or warranties, express or implied. The solutions and delivers capital market solutions* for clients committed to being a responsible corporate citizen and making information is not intended to be taken as advice with respect to across the globe. The firm’s full breadth of services includes a positive impact in the communities in which it operates. Visit any individual situation and cannot be relied upon as such. line-of-business expertise in agriculture; aviation; casualty www.mmc.com for more information. Statements concerning tax, accounting, legal or regulatory clash; construction and engineering; cyber solutions; excess *Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the matters should be understood to be general observations and umbrella; excess and surplus lines; healthcare & life; United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC based solely on our experience as reinsurance brokers and risk marine and energy; mutual insurance companies; political risk Securities Corp., a US registered broker-dealer and member consultants, and may not be relied upon as tax, accounting, legal and trade credit; professional liability; property; public sector; FINRA/NFA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, or regulatory advice, which we are not authorized to provide. retrocessional reinsurance; surety; terrorism and workers New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or All such matters should be reviewed with your own qualified compensation. GC Fac® is Guy Carpenter’s dedicated global investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union advisors in these areas. facultative reinsurance unit that provides placement strategies, by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. timely market access and centralized management of facultative Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any (MMCSEL), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial reinsurance solutions. In addition, GC Analytics®** utilizes historical, current or forward-looking statements. Guy Carpenter Conduct Authority, main office 25 The North Colonnade, Canary industry-leading quantitative skills and modelling tools that & Company, LLC undertakes no obligation to update or revise Wharf, London E14 5HS. Reinsurance products are placed optimize the reinsurance decision-making process and help publicly any historical, current or forward-looking statements, through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. make the firm’s clients more successful. For more information, whether as a result of new information, research, future events MMC Securities Corp., MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy visit www.guycarp.com and follow Guy Carpenter on Twitter or otherwise. Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & @GuyCarpenter. McLennan Companies. This communication is not intended as The trademarks and service marks contained herein are the Guy Carpenter is a wholly owned subsidiary of Marsh & an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, property of their respective owners. McLennan Companies (NYSE: MMC), a global professional financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product. services firm offering clients advice and solutions in the areas of **GC Analytics is a registered mark with the U.S. Patent and risk, strategy, and people. With annual revenue of $13 billion, Trademark Office. © 2015 Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. Marsh & McLennan’s 57,000 colleagues worldwide provide Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC provides this report for general analysis, advice, and transactional capabilities to clients in more information only. The information contained herein is based on than 130 countries through: Marsh, a leader in insurance broking sources we believe reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, All Rights Reserved. 7