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Petronet LNG 1 October 2019

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Petronet LNG 1 October 2019 Institutional Equities Petronet LNG 1 October 2019 Reuters: PLNG.NS; Bloomberg: PLNG IN Numero uno in Indian LNG space with steady annuity business BUY We are initiating coverage on Petronet LNG (PLNG), India’s leading liquefied natural Sector: Oil & Gas gas (LNG) company, with a Buy based on our DCF-based target price of Rs312 ( +21% from CMP). PLNG is India’s market leader in LNG imports and distribution of Re- CMP: Rs258 gasified LNG (RLNG) with a capacity of 22.5mn tonne/year. The company’s growth is driven by India’s voracious energy appetite that is forcing the country to import close Target Price: Rs312 to 83% of its oil and 47% of its gas requirement. We expect the prospects for natural gas demand to get a further fillip based on the wide support for gas as one of the key Upside: 21% options as a clean energy source. PLNG’s growth drivers include: (i) 15% increase in Amit Agarwal LNG imports and re-gasification capacity at Dahej from 15-17.5mn tonne/year in June 2019 (ii) to be enhanced by another 2mn tonne by end-FY23 at a cost of Rs23bn (on Research Analyst additional tanks, Jetty) (iii) the potential upside in utilization of its 5mn tonne per [email protected] annum Kochi LNG terminal once gas major GAIL starts the connecting Kochi- +91-22-6273 8145 Mangalore gas pipeline (expected by Q3FY20) that will help transport the RLNG from this facility to gas consumers across southern states, including Karnataka and Kerala. Key Data We also believe that the stock offers a favourable risk reward at CMP, as it trades close Current Shares O/S (mn) 1,500 to SD-1 on 5 year median PE of 14.2x. Mkt Cap (Rsbn/US$bn) 387/5.48 ● We estimate 14% CAGR in FY19-22E earnings based on 6% CAGR in overall RNLG volume growth- Dahej volume growth of 5% CAGR and Kochi volume to grow by 36% 52 Wk H / L (Rs) 302/203 CAGR over FY19-FY22E based on ramp up of capacity utilization from 10% to 25% over Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.) 3,845,084 FY19-FY22E ● Healthy free cash flows – FCCF in the range of Rs21.6bn to Rs30.6bn over FY19-22E to Initiating Coverage Initiating Share holding (%) 1QFY20 4QFY19 3QFY19 increase net cash from Rs30.5bn to Rs50.4bn over FY19-FY22E. This is post capex worth Rs23bn over FY19-22E Promoter 50.0 50.0 50.0 ● Our TP based on DCF valuation of Rs312 implies Sept 21E PE of 15.4x. This is based on Public 50.0 50.0 50.0 cash flow estimates over FY21-30E, terminal growth of 3%, ramp up in Dahej volume to Others - - - 19.5mn tonne by FY24E and Kochi utilization to 50% by FY25E and further to 75% from FY27E. The stock trades at 12.8x FY21E and 11.8x FY22E PE. Our TP implies a Sep 21E One Year Indexed Stock Performance PE of 15.4x, a 8.5% premium to the SD-1 on 5 year median PE of 14.2x. ● Risks include: (i) reduction in contracted off-take of RLNG by existing buyers if they are 130 unable to place the gas with downstream customers (ii) increase in global oil prices that 120 will increase the Brent crude- linked delivered cost of RLNG contracted with RasGas 110 (Qatar) and Gorgon (Australia) (iii) dramatic increase in cheaper domestic field gas output 100 from KG deepwater development underway by ONGC and Reliance Industries (RIL) that 90 could hurt demand for RLNG, especially in sensitive sectors like fertilizers and power (iv) 80 Lower-than-expected capacity utilization at Kochi and potential exposure to the high risk Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 PETRONET LNG LTD Nifty 50 Tellurium LNG project. Y/E March (Rsmn) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E Price Performance (%) Revenues 305,986 383,954 363,545 447,914 481,540 EBITDA 33,124 32,935 40,801 43,609 45,001 1-M 6-M 1-Yr Consolidated Net Profit Adj 21,104 22,306 24,537 30,306 32,817 PLNG (3.3) 2.6 17.7 EV/FCF (x) 721 (455) 818 363 683 Nifty Index 3.7 (1.6) 4.6 EPS (Rs) 14.07 14.87 16.75 20.20 21.88 EPS gr (%) 22.5 5.7 12.6 20.6 8.3 Source: Bloomberg EBITDA Margin (%) 10.8 8.6 11.2 9.7 9.3 P/E (x) 18.3 17.3 15.4 12.8 11.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.8 10.8 8.7 8.2 7.9 Net Debt (cash)/Equity (x) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4) Pre-tax RoCE (%) 13.6 16.3 17.8 14.8 14.3 RoE (%) 23.5 22.3 23.0 26.4 26.2 Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Institutional Equities Rating rationale Key drivers underpinning our rating rationale: Healthy demand growth in Indian natural gas demand Concomitant expansion in Indian gas transportation infrastructure by GAIL, Gujarat Petronet and Indian Oil Corp (IOC) to help move imported gas to bulk consumers and city gas distribution (CGD) networks being set up across India at an estimated aggregate cost of Rs700bn PLNG’s early mover advantage and market leadership in Indian LNG market (accounts for 40% of the gas supplied in India) PLNG’s competitive positioning close to India’s gas hub on the west region with a lower capital cost of Rs6600/tonne vs. new LNG terminals at Rs10,000-10,500/tonne Benefits of recent capacity expansion at Dahej and potential ramp up in Kochi terminal volume once the latter is hooked up to GAIL’s Kochi-Mangalore pipeline expected in 3QFY20 Healthy financials and attractive valuation: EPS growth at 14% CAGR over FY19-FY22 and FCFF of Rs21.6bn to Rs30.6bn and sustained returns – RoE 22.3% in FY19 to 26.2% in FY22E. Trades at 12.8x PE on FY21E and 11.8x FY22E. Our DCF based TP of Rs312 offers 21% upside from CMP. This implies Sept 21E PE of 15.4x and P/BV of 3.9x. Our worst case analysis assuming Kochi utilization rate gets capped at 30% implies a DCF value of Rs282, which still offers 8.4% upside. The stock offers a low risk entry point at CMP as it is trading at close to SD-1 on 5 year median PE of 14.2x. Gas consumption boom amidst limited domestic production to boost LNG demand We see healthy demand growth in natural gas as a competitive green energy source getting an added fillip from government of India’s long-term goal to increase the share of gas in the country’s energy basket from the current 6.2% to 15% over the next 15-20 years. Exhibit 1: Current mix of fuel consumption across countries Region Oil% Natural Gas% Coal% Nuclear Energy% Hydro electric % Renewable % MTOE World 34.2 23.4 25.4 4.40 6.80 3.60 13,511 OECD 39.4 25.7 15.9 7.9 5.6 5.4 5,605 Non OECD 30.5 21.7 35.9 1.9 7.6 2.3 7,906 Asia Pacific 28.6 11.5 48.4 1.9 6.5 3 5,744 China 19.4 6.6 60.4 1.8 8.3 3.4 3,132 India 29.5 6.2 56.3 1.1 4.1 2.9 754 Bangladesh 22.7 69.4 7 - 0.6 0.3 33 Pakistan 36.1 43.3 8.8 2.2 8.7 1 81 Source: BP Statistical World Energy Review, 2018; MTOE – million tonne of oil equivalent 2 Petronet LNG Institutional Equities Exhibit 2: Sector-wise share of total demand in India 22 16 19 5 6 5 13 11 10 13 15 17 21 25 20 28 26 28 FY17 FY20E FY23E Fertiliser % Power % CGD % Refinery % Petrochemicals % Others % Source: Crisil Research, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Growth in pipeline infrastructure to link LNG import terminals to consumption points Prospects for growth in LNG imports to meet India’s growing gas demand will get an added boost based on supporting investments in cross country pipelines for transportation of imported gas to key consumption centres across India and meet the growing demand for gas across key segments – fertilizers, power, city gas, industries and others. Robust gas demand outlook led by CGD, fertilizers and power segments: The award of new CGD licenses across 138 geographic areas in 402 districts spread over 27 States and Union Territories, covering approx. 70% of India’s population by Indian upstream regulator PNGRB over the 9th and 10th rounds of bidding will likely lead to expansion of CGD networks across the country. This would lead to a 2.4x increase in the no. of CNG stations from 1,491 (as of 2017) to 5,069, 5.6x growth in domestic PNG connections from 3.6mn to 23.9m nos. and steel pipeline by 58,177 km over the next 10 years. The expansion of city gas infrastructure and its hook up with the national gas transportation grid (under GAIL and GSPL) as well as LNG import terminals supports a healthy outlook for long term growth in natural gas demand from the CGD segment. Industry and government estimates reveal that gas demand from CGD segment will likely rise from 26mmscmd to 33mmscmd over the next four years, implying close to 7% CAGR in this segment alone Demand from fertilizers is estimated to increase from 42.8mmsmcd to 53mmsmcd over the same period (5.5% CAGR) Exhibit 3: Gas demand estimates across segments Inc in gas demand Inc in gas demand Gas consumers CAGR% 3 years mmscmd 3 years –Mn Tonne/yr of LNG FY19E# FY20E FY23E FY20-23E Fertilizer 42.8 44.3 53.0 8.7 2.4 5.5% Power 40.9 42.3 38.8 (3.5) (1.0) -1.3% City Gas 25.5 26.4 33.2 6.8 1.9 6.8% Refineries 21.2 21.9 21.3 (0.6) (0.2) 0.2% Petchem 8.9 9.2 9.6 0.4 0.1 1.9% others Incl.
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