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Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited: Rating Reaffirmed

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Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited: Rating Reaffirmed January 06, 2020 Revised Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited: Rating reaffirmed Summary of rating action Previous Rated Amount Current Rated Amount Instrument* Rating Action (Rs. crore) (Rs. crore) Commercial Paper 6000.0 6000.0 [ICRA]A1+; reaffirmed *Instrument details are provided in Annexure-1 Rationale ICRA has taken a consolidated view of CPCL along with its parent Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) (rated [ICRA]A1+), which has 51.9% stake in CPCL, because of the strong business linkages, particularly with respect to imported crude oil sourcing and product off-take. ICRA is of the opinion that IOC would support CPCL to meet its financial obligations, should the need arise. CPCL remains strategically important to IOC as the latter meets its product requirements for the South Indian market from the former. The rating reflects CPCL’s strategic position within the IOC group, which result in low demand risk; its long standing track record in refining business; and the high financial flexibility with lenders by virtue of being a subsidiary of IOCL. The IOCL group has a diversified refinery base at 11 locations on a consolidated basis and its integration into marketing, pipelines and petrochemicals segments reduces the impact of cyclicality associated with the refining segment (which contributed ~22% of EBIDTA in FY2019). The rating reflects the consolidated entity’s dominant and strategically important position in the Indian energy sector, and its role in fulfilling the socio-economic objectives of the GoI. The rating also reflects IOC’s high financial flexibility arising from its large sovereign ownership (53.88% stakes owned by the GoI), the significant portfolio of liquid investments (~ Rs. 23,017 crore as on September 30, 2019 including GoI bonds and investments in GAIL (India) limited, Oil & Natural Gas corporation and Oil India limited (OIL)), and its ability to raise funds from the domestic/foreign banking system and capital markets at competitive rates. The rating, however, also considers the vulnerability of the consolidated entity’s profitability to global refining margin cycle, import duty protection, and INR-USD parity levels. The consolidated entity is also exposed to project implementation risks as both IOCL and CPCL are in the midst of executing large projects that span the entire downstream value chain; however, the risk is largely mitigated by the Group’s proven track record of successfully implementing several large projects. The Group also remains subject to regulatory risks related to intervention in product pricing of sensitive products viz. PDS Kerosene and domestic LPG. Although, this risk is high in an elevated oil price scenario, the past track record of the GoI to ensure low under-recovery levels for PSU Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) provides comfort from the credit perspective. Key rating drivers and their description Credit strengths Strong parentage - Indian Oil Corporation Limited has the controlling stake in the company, with shareholding of 51.9%. CPCL derives significant operational benefits from being a part of the IOC group, with respect to imported crude oil sourcing and product off-take. IOC had also extended financial support to CPCL in FY2016 by subscribing to Rs. 1000.0 crore non -convertible preference shares on a private placement basis. However, during June 2018, with improvement in financial performance in the preceding two fiscal, CPCL repaid Rs. 500.0 crore of non-convertible preference share to 1 IOCL. ICRA believes due to CPCL’s strategic position within the IOC group in South India, should the need arise, IOC would support CPCL to meet its financial obligations. IOC, being the largest oil refining and marketing company in India, commands considerable economic importance. The company holds significant strategic importance for GoI as it helps to meet the socio-economic objectives of price control of sensitive products such as subsidised liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and superior kerosene oil (SKO). The company is also the largest contributor to the government exchequer. Thus, the sovereign support is expected to continue. The company dominates the domestic refining sector with a share of 32.4%. The company is also the leading public oil marketing company with a ~40% market share (including private players) in FY2019. The company has the largest marketing network spanning across the country and actively undertakes multiple branding and customer loyalty initiatives. On a consolidated basis, IOC has 11 refineries (including two under CPCL) across India. Low demand risk due to locational advantage; integrated operations of Group mitigates cyclicality risk in refining segment of consolidated entity – CPCL benefits from being the only refinery company in the IOC group in South India, which results in low demand risk. Over the last decade, IOC has implemented several pipeline projects in order to evacuate products from CPCL in a cost effective manner and to strengthen its presence in Southern Market. IOC’s large marketing operations generate stable profits, although subject to risks related to regulatory developments and inventory gains/losses to some extent. Further, a large pipeline infrastructure owned by the company also results in stable cash generation. The forward integration of IOC into the petrochemical segment provides operational synergies such as conversion of surplus products in the country such as naphtha, into higher value petrochemicals (like HDPE, PP etc), which also lead to higher margins. Overall, significant integration across segments reduces the risks related to refining operations. Financial flexibility with lenders - Due to its long track record and group support, CPCL enjoys high financial flexibility with lenders, allowing it to avail debt at a short notice at low interest rates. IOC continues to enjoy high financial flexibility, which has enabled it to borrow from the domestic and overseas banking system and capital markets at competitive rates, to fund its large working capital requirements and for project finance. The same is supported by IOC’s strong parentage arising from the GoI’s 51.5% stake. The company’s investments in ONGC, GAIL, and Oil India with aggregate market value of ~Rs. 14,517 crore as on September 30, 2019 besides the unsold stock of GoI Special Oil bonds and GoI securities of ~Rs. 8500.0 crore as on March 31, 2019 provide considerable financial flexibility. Credit challenges Leveraged capital structure and project implementation risks - CPCL’s financial risk profile is characterised by leveraged capital structure as the company is in the midst of a debt-funded capex cycle, which constrained the profit margins in FY2019 and H1 FY2020. CPCL’s gearing increased to 1.9x as on March 31, 2019 and 2.2x as on September 30, 2019. Further, ICRA takes note of the plans for expansion of refinery capacity of the CBR unit, which will entail significant capex, although the funding strategy is yet to be finalised and the developments on this front will be monitored. However, the gearing of the consolidated entity stood at 0.8x as on March 31, 2019. The consolidated entity has significant capex plans spanning the entire downstream value chain with an outlay of ~Rs. 2,000 billion over next 6-7 years. The capex plans include the ongoing up-gradation of refineries for production of BS-VI compliant fuel, brownfield expansion of refineries, setting up of nearly 6,500 km of pipeline infrastructure, investments in setting up of retail infrastructure, setting up of petrochemical plants etc. Besides the company is also planning to set-up a mega refinery under a JV with other two PSU OMCs along with ADNOC and Saudi-Aramco on the west coast of India for nearly $60billion (IOC’s share of $15 billion). Any material time or cost overruns in the group projects could lead to an increase in the company’s borrowing levels and moderation of credit metrics. However, the risk is largely mitigated by the company’s proven track record of successfully implementing several large projects. 2 Vulnerability of profitability to global refining margin cycle, import duty protection, and INR-USD parity levels- CPCL has limited pricing flexibility and its margins are vulnerable to movement in international crude prices and crack spreads, import duty differentials and foreign exchange rates. This was reflected during FY2019 and H1FY2020, when the company witnessed margin contraction because of impact of forex losses, inventory losses and weak crack spreads. Given the nature of the business, IOCL (consolidated) would remain exposed to the movement in the commodity price cycles and the volatility in the crude prices. Any adverse changes in the import duty on its products would also have an impact on the company’s domestic sales. The company’s profitability is also exposed to the forex rates (INR-US$), given the business is largely dollarised on sales, crude procurement and foreign currency loans. The performance also remains susceptible to regulatory risks, pertaining to pricing of sensitive petroleum products. However, the past track record of the GoI to ensure low under recovery levels for PSU OMCs provides comfort from the credit perspective. Any adverse change in the GoI’s policy in this regard, thereby weakening the key credit metrics of IOCL (consolidated) will be a key rating sensitivity Liquidity position: Strong Despite weak profit margins and cash accruals in the last one year, the liquidity profile of CPCL remains strong aided by availability of unutilised working capital limits and high financial flexibility by virtue of it being a subsidiary of IOCL, which allows it to raise funds at fine rates. The company has successfully refinanced its borrowings in the past. The company has ~Rs. 900.0 crore of loan repayments falling due in FY2020 and FY2021, which are expected to be met through internal accruals and refinancing. The parent IOCL had cash balance, including short-term investments of ~Rs. 11571 crore (including the GOI oil bonds), as on September 30, 2019.
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