Shifting Away from Cold War Nuclear Thinking?
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DOI: 10.14267/phd.2015009 Corvinus University of Budapest Shifting Away From Cold War Nuclear Thinking? Nuclear Strategy under the Obama Administration PHD THESIS Advisor: N. Rózsa Erzsébet, Dr. Habil. Péczeli Anna Budapest, 2014 DOI: 10.14267/phd.2015009 Péczeli Anna Shifting Away From Cold War Nuclear Thinking? Nuclear Strategy under the Obama Administration DOI: 10.14267/phd.2015009 Institute for International Studies Advisor: N. Rózsa Erzsébet, Dr. Habil. Senior Lecturer (National University of Public Service) 2014 © Péczeli Anna ALL RIGHTS RESERVED DOI: 10.14267/phd.2015009 70 International Relations Multidisciplinary Doctoral School International and Security Studies Subprogram PHD THESIS Péczeli Anna Shifting Away From Cold War Nuclear Thinking? Nuclear Strategy under the Obama Administration Advisor: N. Rózsa Erzsébet, Dr. Habil. Senior Lecturer (National University of Public Service) Budapest, 2014 DOI: 10.14267/phd.2015009 Table of Contents Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................... 3 List of Figures and Tables ............................................................................................... 6 List of Abbreviations ....................................................................................................... 7 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 11 1. Overview of the Research Project .......................................................................... 11 2. Explanation of Choice ............................................................................................ 16 3. Time Frame ............................................................................................................ 17 4. Methodology .......................................................................................................... 19 5. Limits of the Design ............................................................................................... 21 6. Contribution to the Field ........................................................................................ 22 I. Cold War Nuclear Thinking and U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy ............................. 24 1. Literature Review: The Evolution of U.S. Nuclear Strategy during the Cold War – A Historical Overview ........................................................................................ 24 1.1 The Truman Years (1945-1953) ........................................................... 24 1.2 The Eisenhower Years (1953-1961) ..................................................... 28 1.3 The Kennedy-Johnson Years (1961-1969) ........................................... 33 1.4 The Nixon-Ford Years (1969-1977) ..................................................... 40 1.5 The Carter Years (1977-1981) .............................................................. 45 1.6 The Reagan Years (1981-1989) ............................................................ 49 1.7 The Bush Years (1989-1993) ............................................................... 54 1.8 The Legacies of the Cold War .............................................................. 58 2. Conceptualizing the Main Terms of the Dissertation ............................................. 60 2.1 Cold War Nuclear Thinking ................................................................. 60 2.2 Nuclear Strategy ................................................................................... 72 2.3 Counterforce vs. Counter-value Strategies ........................................... 75 2.4 Strategic Stability ................................................................................. 80 3. Hypotheses ............................................................................................................. 85 II. Nuclear Strategy under the Obama Administration ............................................... 89 1. The Roots of President Obama’s Nuclear Strategy – From College Paper to Official Campaign Strategy .................................................................................... 89 2. The Review of U.S. Nuclear Guidance .................................................................. 96 1 DOI: 10.14267/phd.2015009 3. Declaratory Policy .................................................................................................. 103 3.1 The Prague Address (2009) .................................................................. 103 3.2 The Nuclear Posture Review (2010) .................................................... 105 3.2.1 The Clinton Administration’s Nuclear Posture Review ...... 105 3.2.2 The Bush Administration’s Nuclear Posture Review .......... 107 3.2.3 The Obama Administration’s Nuclear Posture Review ...... 110 3.3 Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership (2012) ........................................... 124 3.4 The Berlin Address (2013) ................................................................... 126 3.5 Evaluation ............................................................................................. 128 4. Force Structure ....................................................................................................... 133 4.1 Nuclear Warheads and the Nuclear Triad ............................................ 133 4.1.1 Force Levels under the Bush Years (1989-1993) ................ 134 4.1.2 Force Levels under the Clinton Years (1993-2001) ............ 136 4.1.3 Force Levels under the Bush Years (2001-2009) ................ 138 4.1.4 Force Levels under the Obama Years (2009-present) ......... 142 4.2 Nuclear Modernizations ....................................................................... 155 4.3 Budget Debates and the Future of the Stockpile .................................. 163 4.4 Evaluation ............................................................................................. 168 5. Operational Level ................................................................................................... 173 5.1 Operational Level under the Clinton and Bush Administrations ......... 173 5.2 Operational Level under the Obama Administration ........................... 184 5.2.1 War Plans under Obama ...................................................... 184 5.2.2 Presidential Employment Guidance (2013) ........................ 189 5.3 Evaluation ............................................................................................. 197 6. Reductions and Nuclear Strategy ........................................................................... 207 6.1 Deployed Nuclear Weapons ................................................................. 207 6.2 Non-Deployed Nuclear Weapons ......................................................... 212 6.3 The Future of the Triad ......................................................................... 217 6.4 The Strategic Requirements of Lower Numbers .................................. 221 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................... 228 Bibliography ..................................................................................................................... 243 Glossary ............................................................................................................................. 271 List of Interviews for this Research Project .................................................................. 279 Publications by the Author on the Topic ....................................................................... 281 2 DOI: 10.14267/phd.2015009 Acknowledgements Anybody who has undergone the process of writing a PhD knows that it is essential to have a good support system to survive and succeed in this great challenge. This dissertation would not have been possible without the continuous support and help of a great number of people whom I had the pleasure to interact during the last four years. First of all, I would like to thank to my PhD advisor, Erzsébet Nagyné Rózsa for her constant support and guidance. She introduced me to the world of arms control, and has been a guardian of my academic career both in Hungary and abroad. One of our German friends funnily calls her my “academic mother” which, in essence, grasps the depth of her contribution to many of my achievements as a researcher. I am also grateful to the International Relations Doctoral School of Corvinus University with all of my professors and fellow PhD students who were a constant source of encouragement for this project. I would specifically like to thank Zsolt Rostoványi, Erzsébet Kaponyi, András Blahó, and László Csicsmann for providing me with several recommendations and for supporting my participation at many international conferences. In this regard, being an adjunct fellow at the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs has also been a significant contribution to my academic progress – I have learnt a lot from my colleagues and it opened many important doors for me. I have to express my special thanks to the directors of the institute, Botond Zákonyi and András Király for providing me with this great opportunity. On the way of developing this research project, the defense workshop has been a crucial milestone, and I would like to express my gratitude to Péter Marton, László Kiss J., András Rácz, and Zoltán Gálik for their valuable comments and recommendations on my research framework. At this point, I owe my deepest