SM Entertainment
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SM Entertainment (041510 KQ ) Despite best efforts, much will depend on external conditions Entertainment 1Q20 review: COVID-19 weighs on subsidiary earnings Results Comment For 1Q20, SM Entertainment reported consolidated revenue of W144.7bn (+10.7% YoY; all growth figures hereafter are YoY) and operating profit of W1.7bn (-40.2%). June 1, 2020 Operating profit disappointed expectations, mainly due to subsidiaries. Parent operating profit fell 9.3% to W7.8bn. Album/digital music revenue jumped 70% to W40.6bn, helped by the growing domestic/overseas fan bases of major artists. In (Downgrade) Trading Buy particular, the overseas mix of digital music revenue (W18.9bn) increased further to 69.8%. However, concert cancellations in March due to COVID-19 weighed on related Target Price (12M, W) ▼ 31,000 subsidiaries, including SM Japan and Dream Maker. KeyEast managed to turn a profit (operating profit of W2.4bn), thanks to sales of its tentpole drama Hyena . At SM C&C Share Price (05/29/20, W) 26,000 (048550 KQ/CP: W1,570), losses widened to W3.5bn due to the travel segment. Doing its best under challenging circumstances Expected Return 19% For the full year, we look for revenue of W546.7bn (-16.9%) and operating profit of W10.6bn (-73.7%). Live performances have essentially come to a halt globally due to the pandemic. With a major source of income now gone, earnings deterioration will be inevitable. OP (20F, Wbn) 11 Consensus OP (20F, Wbn) 26 In response, SM Entertainment launched a paid concert streaming service called “Beyond LIVE” in April in collaboration with V LIVE. The service has so far featured EPS Growth (20F, %) - weekly performances from a number of artists, including SuperM, WayV, NCT Dream, Market EPS Growth (20F, %) 25.9 and NCT 127. We believe the service is not yet as profitable as traditional concerts , P/E (20F, x) 3,684.1 largely due to issues regarding ticket prices, platform commissions, and venue Market P/E (20F, x) 13.8 efficiency. If the company enhances efficiency by expanding audiences, diversifying KOSDAQ 713.68 merchandise offerings, and selling VODs, we think the service could provide a more Market Cap (Wbn) 610 meaningful buffer to earnings. Shares Outstanding (mn) 23 Meanwhile, we find it encouraging that the company is continuing to see strong album Free Float (%) 80.6 sales, even amid limited management activities and the absence of several groups Foreign Ownership (%) 14.9 (EXO and SHINee). In 1Q20, album sales totaled 1.08mn copies. In particular, NCT 127’s Beta (12M) 1.01 newest album sold 760,000 copies (vs. previous record of 460,000 copies), proving the 52-Week Low 16,700 group’s fan base is rapidly expanding. 52-Week High 47,950 Downgrade to Trading Buy and cut TP to W31,000 (%) 1M 6M 12M We downgrade SM Entertainment to Trading Buy and cut our target price to W31,000 . Absolute -6.1 -32.3 -30.9 We derived our target price by applying to our 2021F net profit attributable to controll ing Relative -15.1 -39.9 -33.1 interests (W26.7bn) a P/E of 25x (which takes into account our valuation base year). 150 SM Entertainment KOSDAQ Major tailwinds, such as g rowing global digital music sales (margin improvement), the 130 increasing influence of K-pop (multiple expansion), and new artist debuts in 2H20, have 110 90 all been eclipsed by a massive negative event. 70 The suspension of live performances will inevitably hurt earnings. Moreover, it remains 50 unclear when performances can resume. Without any real solution to the pandemic, the 30 5.19 9.19 1.20 5.20 industry is likely to suffer more damage as time goes by. That said, potential improvements in China-Korea relations and the upcoming IPO of Big Hit Entertainment Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. could help the industry buy some time until uncertainties dissipate. We believe investors should pay closer attention to external conditions than individual companies. [ Media ] FY (Dec.) 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19 12/20F 12/21F Jeong -yeob Park Revenue (Wbn) 350 365 612 658 547 672 +822 -3774 -1652 OP (Wbn) 21 11 48 40 11 47 [email protected] OP Margin (%) 6.0 3.0 7.8 6.1 2.0 7.0 NP (Wbn) 4 4 31 -9 0 28 EPS (W) 169 199 1,361 -390 7 1,193 ROE (%) 1.2 1.3 8.0 -2.1 0.0 6.2 P/E (x) 153.0 174.4 38.4 - - 21.8 P/B (x) 1.7 2.2 2.8 2.0 1.4 1.3 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates June 1, 2020 SM Entertainment Table 1. TP calculation (Wbn, x, %) 20F 21F 12MF Fair market cap 675 675 675 Net profit 0 27 -2 Fair P/E 4,081.1 25.0 -313.9 Fair price (W) 31,043 31,043 31,043 Expected return (%) 19.4 19.4 19.4 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Table 2. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %, mn, %p ) 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20F 3Q20F 4Q20F 2018 2019 2020F Revenue 131 160 173 194 145 134 130 138 612 658 547 SM Entertainment 57 65 84 102 68 53 58 63 282 307 242 SM Japan 15 16 20 28 14 6 6 5 95 79 32 Dream Maker 16 14 29 20 5 7 11 10 58 80 33 SM C&C 35 43 40 49 34 45 42 48 197 167 169 KeyEast 23 33 22 22 31 34 22 23 59 100 111 Operating profit 2.8 3.9 19.9 13.8 1.7 3.0 3.8 2.2 48 40 11 OP margin (%) 2.1 2.4 11.5 7.1 1.2 2.2 2.9 1.6 7.8 6.1 1.9 Pretax profit 2.7 4.2 21.6 -17.6 5.2 5.0 3.4 -8.0 46 11 6 Net profit -3.7 0.7 9.3 -22.5 -1.9 3.8 2.6 -6.1 23 -16 -2 Net margin (%) -2.8 0.4 5.4 -11.6 -1.3 2.8 2.0 -4.4 3.8 -2.5 -0.3 Net profit attributable to -1.0 0.5 8.3 -16.9 -0.4 3.0 2.3 -4.8 30.6 -9.1 0.2 controlling interests YoY Revenue 18.2 28.3 2.8 -7.0 10.7 -16.0 -25.1 -28.9 67.6 7.4 -16.9 SM Entertainment -4.1 6.7 27.4 6.5 19.8 -17.4 -30.8 -38.7 30.3 9.2 -21.2 SM Japan -43.3 -1.8 -1.5 -11.0 -4.0 -63.8 -69.0 -81.3 61.4 -16.3 -60.2 Dream Maker 143.3 12.9 64.2 -6.6 -66.9 -50.7 -62.5 -51.8 37.2 36.5 -58.6 SM C&C -6.1 -18.5 -10.5 -21.9 -4.0 4.7 6.1 -1.8 122.5 -15.4 1.3 KeyEast - - -43.6 5.1 34.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 - 69.2 10.4 Operating profit -72.9 -61.3 64.2 -9.4 -40.3 -23.0 -81.1 -84.1 336.4 -15.4 -73.7 Net profit TTR -82.8 28.3 TTR TTR 441.9 -72.6 TTR TTB TTR TTR Key assumption Record sales in Korea 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.9 1.1 1.2 0.8 1.3 5.2 4.2 4.4 Concert ticket sales in Japan 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 1.4 0.4 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; concert ticket sales volume is based on the actual timing of each concert and includes our estimates. Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 June 1, 2020 SM Entertainment SM Entertainment (041510 KQ/Trading Buy/TP: W31,000) Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/18 12/19 12/20F 12/21F (Wbn) 12/18 12/19 12/20F 12/21F Revenue 612 658 547 672 Current Assets 537 629 551 650 Cost of Sales 410 442 382 451 Cash and Cash Equivalents 237 285 305 347 Gross Profit 202 216 165 221 AR & Other Receivables 124 129 92 113 SG&A Expenses 155 175 154 174 Inventories 12 15 10 13 Operating Profit (Adj) 48 40 11 47 Other Current Assets 164 200 144 177 Operating Profit 48 40 11 47 Non-Current Assets 465 487 439 402 Non-Operating Profit -2 -29 -5 -6 Investments in Associates 101 65 47 57 Net Financial Income 0 0 -1 0 Property, Plant and Equipment 93 106 85 63 Net Gain from Inv in Associates -6 -11 -1 0 Intangible Assets 186 199 166 135 Pretax Profit 46 11 6 41 Total Assets 1,002 1,116 991 1,052 Income Tax 23 27 7 10 Current Liabilities 394 437 324 352 Profit from Continuing Operations 23 -16 -2 31 AP & Other Payables 266 289 205 252 Profit from Discontinued Operations 0 0 0 0 Short-Term Financial Liabilities 44 67 61 28 Net Profit 23 -16 -2 31 Other Current Liabilities 84 81 58 72 Controlling Interests 31 -9 0 28 Non-Current Liabilities 32 46 38 41 Non-Controlling Interests -7 -7 -2 3 Long-Term Financial Liabilities 10 28 25 25 Total Comprehensive Profit 27 -12 4 31 Other Non-Current Liabilities 22 18 13 16 Controlling Interests 35 -6 3 22 Total Liabilities 426 483 362 393 Non-Controlling Interests -8 -6 1 9 Controlling Interests 424 444 441 469 EBITDA 88 104 80 101 Capital Stock 12 12 12 12 FCF (Free Cash Flow) 110 78 25 107 Capital Surplus 219 245 245 245 EBITDA Margin (%) 14.4 15.8 14.6 15.0 Retained Earnings 174 165 165 193 Operating Profit Margin (%) 7.8 6.1 2.0 7.0 Non-Controlling Interests 152 189 187 190 Net Profit Margin (%) 5.1 -1.4 0.0 4.2 Stockholders' Equity 576 633 628 659 Cash Flows (Summarized) Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/18 12/19 12/20F 12/21F 12/18 12/19 12/20F 12/21F Cash Flows from Op Activities 120 92 28 107 P/E (x) 38.4 - 3,684.1 21.8 Net Profit 23 -16 -2 31 P/CF (x) 11.1 7.4 8.1 6.4 Non-Cash Income and Expense 83 138 77 64 P/B (x) 2.8 2.0 1.4 1.3 Depreciation 13 26 30 22 EV/EBITDA (x) 12.9 7.8 6.4 4.2 Amortization 27 38 39 32 EPS (W) 1,361 -390 7 1,193 Others 43 74 8 10 CFPS (W) 4,725 5,220 3,213 4,038 Chg in Working Capital 52 -5 -38 22 BPS (W) 18,465 18,984 18,848 20,041 Chg in AR & Other Receivables 2 0 42 -21 DPS (W) 0 0 0 0 Chg in Inventories -1 -1 4 -2 Payout ratio (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Chg in AP & Other Payables 46 5 -80 31 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Income Tax Paid -39 -25 -8 -10 Revenue Growth (%) 67.7 7.5 -16.9 22.9 Cash Flows from Inv Activities -127 -53 -11 -21 EBITDA Growth (%) 166.7 18.2 -23.1 26.3 Chg in PP&E -10 -13 -3 0 Operating Profit Growth (%) 336.4 -16.7 -72.5 327.3 Chg in Intangible Assets -26 -30 -6 0 EPS Growth (%) 583.9 - - 16,942.9 Chg in Financial Assets -33 -48 36 -21 Accounts Receivable Turnover (x) 5.0 5.2 4.9 6.6 Others -58 38 -38 0 Inventory Turnover (x) 60.8 50.1 43.3