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SM Entertainment (041510 KQ ) Two Expectations SM Entertainment (041510 KQ ) Two expectations Entertainment Watch for new artist growth and enhanced shareholder returns; Maintain Buy and TP of W59,000 Company Report SM Entertainment’s stock has struggled since the start of 2019, weighed by May 30, 2019 disappointing 1Q19 earnings, industry-specific risks, and limited visibility on 2019 profit growth. However, we see two tailwinds materializing moving forward. First, we expect the company to see greater artist effects on the back of the growth of new groups . Both NCT and WayV are set to release new albums , building upon their increasing popularity. NCT expanded its global fan base by launching its first world tour just 30 (Maintain) Buy months after its debut, while WayV’s first mini album Take Off has topped the charts . WayV is growing rapidly in China, in terms of both music activities (album/digital Target Price (12M, W) 59,000 music/concerts) and management (ads/broadcasting). Second, we expect talks of shareholder returns to take shape . Several major Share Price (05/29/19, W) 37,650 institutional investors have disclosed stake acquisitions in SM Entertainment this year. Altogether, we believe these institutions hold a roughly 20% stake in the company. Due Expected Return to the continued decline in its share price, the company’s long-term issues (cost 57% savings through the internationalization of outsourced services , shareholder returns through dividend distribution, etc.) have come into focus more frequently and more intensely. Given recent changes in the ownership structure and expectations of strong OP (19F, Wbn) 49 profit improvement (+30% YoY), we think the debate about management efficiency and Consensus OP (19F, Wbn) 54 shareholder returns is more relevant than ever. EPS Growth (19F, %) -15.5 Earnings to regain momentum in 2Q19 Market EPS Growth (19F, %) -20.0 We expect earnings to regain momentum from 2Q19 , as the comeback of the P/E (19F, x) 32.8 company’s leading artists should naturally lead to more activities. EXO (Chen) made a Market P/E (19F, x) 11.6 comeback in April, NCT 127 announced a new album in May, and WayV is set to officially debut in China next month. In particular, EXO is likely to engage in a wide KOSDAQ 691.47 range of activities simultaneously in 2H19, including solo/unit activities, the release of a group regular album, and domestic/overseas tours. With its members set to enter Market Cap (Wbn) 878 military service starting this year, the group is likely to build a more active presence in Shares Outstanding (mn) 23 diversified formats. In all, we expect at least three comebacks (same as last year) and Free Float (%) 76.6 more album/concert ticket sales than last year. Foreign Ownership (%) 17.0 In addition, we see improvements across the company’s subsidiaries . SM C&C should Beta (12M) 1.00 benefit from an increase in new advertisers and the end of the off-season, while 52-Week Low 37,600 KeyEast has a number of dramas airing in 2H19. Overseas subsidiaries should also 52-Week High 56,100 begin to generate new artist revenue. (%) 1M 6M 12M 1Q19 review: Core businesses good, but subsidiaries weak Absolute -6.7 -30.3 -10.4 For 1Q19, SM Entertainment reported consolidated revenue of W130.8bn (+18.2% YoY) Relative 1.3 -29.9 12.8 and operating profit of W2.8bn (-72.9% YoY). Despite the widely anticipated decline in artist activities, the company’s core businesses performed well (operating profit of 160 SM Entertainment KOSDAQ W12.6b n for parent, SM Japan, and Dream Maker combined), mainly thanks to the 140 robust growth of overseas digital music sales at the parent company (+100% YoY to W9.6bn). We believe this partly reflected the effects of the switch in the company’s 120 Chinese distributor to Tencent Music Entertainment. 100 80 Subsidiaries, on the other hand, fared poorly. SM C&C remained in the red (operating loss of W2.1bn), weighed by seasonal weakness in advertising . KeyEast (which was 60 5.18 9.18 1.19 5.19 consolidated in 3Q18) also posted a loss of W2.1bn, due to a drama void . Other subsidiary losses (W6bn on a combined basis) likely stemmed from depreciations on new businesses and expenses related to local new artists. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [ Media ] FY (Dec.) 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19F 12/20F Revenue (Wbn) 322 350 365 612 662 759 Jeong -yeob Park +822 -3774 -1652 OP (Wbn) 38 21 11 48 49 79 [email protected] OP margin (%) 11.8 6.0 3.0 7.8 7.4 10.4 NP (Wbn) 22 4 4 31 27 54 EPS (W) 1,048 169 199 1,361 1,149 2,307 ROE (%) 8.3 1.2 1.3 8.0 6.1 11.1 P/E (x) 41.0 153.0 174.4 38.4 32.8 16.3 P/B (x) 3.1 1.7 2.2 2.8 1.9 1.7 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates May 30, 2019 SM Entertainment Table 1. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %, mn) 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F 2018 2019F 2020F Revenue 111 124 169 209 131 154 190 187 612 662 759 SM Entertainment 59 61 66 96 57 65 81 80 282 283 340 SM Japan 26 16 20 32 15 19 21 26 95 80 94 Dream Maker 7 12 18 21 16 16 16 15 58 63 74 SM C&C 38 52 44 63 35 42 48 66 197 191 203 KeyEast 38 21 23 29 41 22 59 115 122 Operating profit 10.4 10.0 12.1 15.2 2.8 11.3 21.6 13.0 48 49 79 OP margin (%) 9.4 8.0 7.2 7.3 2.1 7.3 11.4 7.0 7.8 7.4 10.4 Pretax profit 15.1 11.1 10.9 8.8 2.7 13.3 20.6 10.6 46 47 82 Net profit 11.4 4.0 7.3 0.7 -3.7 9.7 15.0 7.7 23 29 60 Net margin (%) 10.3 3.2 4.3 0.3 -2.8 6.3 7.9 4.1 3.8 4.3 7.9 Net profit attributable to 11.2 5.1 6.4 8.0 -1.0 8.6 12.4 7.2 30.6 27.2 53.6 controlling interests YoY Revenue 62.5 83.8 94.6 45.9 18.2 23.9 12.4 -10.3 67.6 8.1 14.7 SM Entertainment 46.7 49.6 8.3 28.8 -4.1 6.8 23.9 -17.1 30.3 0.4 20.4 SM Japan 102.3 33.6 74.4 45.7 -43.3 15.5 1.5 -19.9 61.4 -15.7 17.5 Dream Maker 19.6 -22.0 116.2 67.5 143.3 26.4 -12.8 -29.2 37.2 7.5 17.6 SM C&C 151.4 361.7 338.0 20.0 -6.2 -20.6 8.1 5.7 122.5 -3.0 6.5 KeyEast - - - - - - 6.0 6.0 - 93.7 6.0 Operating profit 765.8 626.2 162.8 306.3 -72.9 12.9 77.5 -14.4 336.4 2.0 62.4 Net profit TTB 6.3 -43.2 TTB TTR 140.9 106.3 1,032.6 TTB 22.8 108.4 Key assumption Concert ticket sales in Japan 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 2.1 1.7 2.1 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; concert ticket sales volume is based on actual timing of concert and includes our estimates Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Figure 1. Concert attendance in Japan by artist (assumptions) (mn persons) 2.5 SMT NCT128 RedVelvet EXO f(x) Super Junior 2.0 SHINEE Girl's Generation TVXQ BoA 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 May 30, 2019 SM Entertainment Figure 2. Stake of the largest shareholder has decreased, while those of major institutional investors have expanded after the acquisition of KeyEast Entertainment NPS 8.2% KB Asset Management 6.6% Korea Value Asset Management, 5.1% Mirae Asset Global Etc. Investments 4.8% 55.8% Biggest shareholder & affiliates 19.5% Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 3. Transactions with Like Plan are on a steady rise (Wbn) (%) 16 Transaction value with Like Plan (affiliated party) (L) 6 15 % of parent revenue (R) 12 11 11 5 10 7 8 7 6 5 4 4 0 3 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 4. WayV’s new song topped China's QQ Music Chart Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 May 30, 2019 SM Entertainment SM Entertainment (041510 KQ/Buy/TP: W59,000) Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/17 12/18 12/19F 12/20F (Wbn) 12/17 12/18 12/19F 12/20F Revenue 365 612 662 759 Current Assets 441 537 600 747 Cost of Sales 249 410 446 495 Cash and Cash Equivalents 195 237 331 436 Gross Profit 116 202 216 264 AR & Other Receivables 121 124 111 129 SG&A Expenses 105 155 167 185 Inventories 9 12 10 12 Operating Profit (Adj) 11 48 49 79 Other Current Assets 116 164 148 170 Operating Profit 11 48 49 79 Non-Current Assets 357 465 425 391 Non-Operating Profit 13 -2 -3 4 Investments in Associates 81 101 91 105 Net Financial Income 0 0 2 4 Property, Plant and Equipment 93 93 83 71 Net Gain from Inv in Associates 21 -6 -3 0 Intangible Assets 113 186 162 121 Pretax Profit 24 46 46 83 Total Assets 798 1,002 1,026 1,137 Income Tax 29 23 18 22 Current Liabilities 330 394 358 406 Profit from Continuing Operations -5 23 28 60 AP & Other Payables 209 266 238 275 Profit from Discontinued Operations 0 0 0 0 Short-Term Financial Liabilities 49 44 44 44 Net Profit -5 23 28 60 Other Current Liabilities 72 84 76 87 Controlling Interests 4 31 27 54 Non-Current Liabilities 31 32 49 52 Non-Controlling Interests -9 -7 1 6 Long-Term Financial Liabilities 11 10 29 29 Total Comprehensive Profit -12 27 29 60 Other Non-Current Liabilities 20 22 20 23 Controlling Interests -1 35 10 21 Total Liabilities 362 426 407 458 Non-Controlling Interests -10 -8 19 39 Controlling Interests 345 424 459 513 EBITDA 33 88 118 132 Capital Stock 11 12 12 12 FCF (Free Cash Flow) 67 110 88 129 Capital Surplus 170 219 234 234 EBITDA Margin (%) 9.0 14.4 17.8 17.4 Retained Earnings 134 174 201 255 Operating Profit Margin (%) 3.0 7.8 7.4 10.4 Non-Controlling Interests 91 152 160 166 Net Profit Margin (%) 1.1 5.1 4.1 7.1 Stockholders' Equity 436 576 619 679 Cash Flows (Summarized) Forecasts/Valuations (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/17 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/17 12/18 12/19F 12/20F Cash Flows from Op Activities 77 120 91
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