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Fuyao Glass Volume and Price of Automotive Glass to Rise; Earnings to Improve

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Fuyao Glass Volume and Price of Automotive Glass to Rise; Earnings to Improve Equity Research August 9, 2020 Fuyao Glass Volume and price of automotive glass to rise; earnings to improve Investment Focus Maintain OUTPERFORM Action Ticker 600660.SH 03606.HK We are upbeat on the growth potential of the automotive glass CICC investment rating OUTPERFORM OUTPERFORM industry given the use of head-up displays (HUD) and panoramic Last close Rmb28.82 HK$24.75 sunroofs. We expect earnings at Fuyao Glass to turn around after CICC target Rmb35.00 HK$32.00 COVID-19 outbreaks overseas are brought under control. In addition, we are optimistic about Fuyao’s earnings in the longer term and 52wk price range Rmb29.88~17.34 HK$25.28~14.73 expect the firm to gain market share worldwide given its investments Market cap (bn) Rmb69 HK$77 Daily value (mn) Rmb997.11 HK$107.37 in the aluminum trim and smart glass businesses. Shares outstanding (mn) 2,509 2,509 Reasoning Free float (%) 80 20 Volume and price of automotive glass to rise. We are upbeat on Daily volume (mn sh) 39.65 4.77 China’s automotive glass industry given the healthy competitive Business sector Automobiles & Parts landscape, high barriers to entry, and glass exports. We think the higher volume and price of automotive glass used in vehicles will add 03606.HK HSCEI to the growth potential of the automotive glass industry. 126 Earnings to turn around as impacts of overseas outbreaks ease; 113 FYSAM to turn a profit. In 1H20, Fuyao faced headwinds from 100 COVID-19 outbreaks in China and abroad. We expect its earnings to 87 improve as impacts of overseas outbreaks ease. We think its German (%) Value Relative 74 subsidiary FYSAM will generate profits monthly in the short term. 61 We expect Fuyao to gain market share worldwide given its high 2019-08 2019-11 2020-02 2020-05 2020-08 R&D input and broad product portfolio. Fuyao has recorded a higher R&D expense ratio and provided a broader product portfolio than (Rmb mn) 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E many leading glass manufacturers. It has cooperated with BOE and BICV in switchable glass, antenna glass, and other smart glass. We Revenue 20,225 21,104 18,651 21,664 think Fuyao’s high R&D input and focus on the auto glass business (+/-) 8.1% 4.3% -11.6% 16.2% will help it rapidly respond to changing market demand during Net profit 4,120 2,898 2,602 3,503 product upgrades. Given its business scale and R&D strength, we (+/-) 30.9% -29.7% -10.2% 34.6% think Fuyao will continue to gain market share worldwide. EPS 1.64 1.16 1.04 1.40 Earnings forecast and valuation BPS 8.05 8.52 8.81 9.45 We maintain our earnings forecasts. Fuyao-A is trading at 27.8x DPS 1.15 0.75 0.75 0.75 2020e and 20.6x 2021e P/E. Fuyao-H is trading at 21.2x 2020e and CPS 2.32 2.04 1.94 2.13 P/E 13.2 19.2 21.2 15.7 15.7x 2021e P/E. We are upbeat on the sector valuation given the increased volume and price of automotive glass, and expect the P/B 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 firm’s valuation to increase as its earnings recover and FYSAM turns a EV/EBITDA 8.9 11.7 11.6 8.9 profit. We maintain our OUTPERFORM ratings for Fuyao-A/H, and Dividend yield 5.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% ROAA 12.4% 7.9% 6.8% 9.0% raise our TP for Fuyao-A by 39% to Rmb35 (25x 2021e P/E, 21.4% upside) and lift our TP for Fuyao-H by 39% to HK$32 (20x 2021e P/E, ROAE 21.0% 13.9% 12.0% 15.3% 29.3% upside). Risks Recurrence of COVID-19 outbreaks in the US; weakening of US dollars. Source: Wind, Bloomberg, Corporate filings, CICC Research Danlin REN Lei WANG Analyst Analyst [email protected] [email protected] SAC Reg. No.: S0080518060001 SAC Reg. No.: S0080118040030 SFC CE Ref: BNF068 SFC CE Ref: BNN451 Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report CICC Research: August 9, 2020 Financial summary Financial statement (Rmb mn) 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E Financial ratios 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E Income statement Growth ability Revenue 20,225 21,104 18,651 21,664 Revenue 8.1% 4.3% -11.6% 16.2% COGS -11,806 -13,395 -11,898 -13,134 Operating profit 1.0% -17.3% -16.9% 43.1% Selling expenses 1,468 1,482 1,399 1,560 EBITDA 18.8% -21.0% -1.6% 26.8% Administrative expenses 2,063 2,185 1,958 2,275 Net profit 30.9% -29.7% -10.2% 34.6% Other ops income (expense) -123 -182 -184 -184 Profitability Operating profit 4,124 3,411 2,834 4,056 Gross margin 41.6% 36.5% 36.2% 39.4% Finance costs -111 21 -82 78 Operating margin 20.4% 16.2% 15.2% 18.7% Other income (expense) 25 -241 -95 -93 EBITDA margin 31.2% 23.6% 26.3% 28.7% Profit before income tax 4,962 3,231 2,901 3,905 Net margin 20.4% 13.7% 14.0% 16.2% Income tax 855 333 299 402 Liquidity Minority interest -13 0 0 0 Current ratio 1.26 1.20 1.27 1.38 Net profit 4,120 2,898 2,602 3,503 Quick ratio 1.00 0.98 1.05 1.15 EBITDA 6,312 4,986 4,907 6,223 Cash ratio 0.51 0.56 0.62 0.69 Recurrent net income 4,120 2,898 2,602 3,503 Liabilities / assets 41.5% 45.0% 41.8% 40.7% Balance sheet Net debt / equity 2.2% 6.2% 7.0% 1.4% Cash and bank balances 6,358 8,353 8,137 9,343 Return Trade and bill receivables 3,594 3,457 3,056 3,549 RoA 12.4% 7.9% 6.8% 9.0% Inventories 3,242 3,280 2,914 3,214 RoE 21.0% 13.9% 12.0% 15.3% Other current assets 2,388 2,684 2,599 2,677 Per-share data Total current assets 15,581 17,774 16,706 18,784 EPS (Rmb) 1.64 1.16 1.04 1.40 Fixed assets and CIP 16,567 16,496 16,606 16,569 BPS (Rmb) 8.05 8.52 8.81 9.45 Intangible assets and others 2,343 4,556 4,611 4,602 DPS (Rmb) 1.15 0.75 0.75 0.75 Total non-current assets 18,909 21,052 21,217 21,170 Cash flow per share (Rmb) 2.32 2.04 1.94 2.13 Total assets 34,490 38,826 37,923 39,954 Valuation Short-term borrowings 6,852 9,615 8,492 8,492 P/E 13.2 19.2 21.2 15.7 Trade and bill payables 1,301 1,237 1,098 1,212 P/B 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 Other current liabilities 4,204 3,934 3,572 3,869 EV/EBITDA 8.9 11.7 11.6 8.9 Total current liabilities 12,357 14,786 13,162 13,572 Dividend yield 5.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% Long-term borrowings 1,247 1,193 1,193 1,193 Other non-current liabilities 697 1,478 1,478 1,478 Total non-current liabilities 1,943 2,671 2,671 2,671 Total liabilities 14,301 17,457 15,834 16,243 Share capital 2,509 2,509 2,509 2,509 Retained profit 17,682 18,862 19,583 21,204 Shareholders' equity 20,191 21,370 22,091 23,713 Minority interest -1 -1 -2 -2 Total liabilities & equity 34,490 38,826 37,923 39,954 Cash flow statement Pretax profit 4,962 3,231 2,901 3,905 Depreciation & amortization 1,693 2,060 2,088 2,240 Change in working capital 877 490 350 -462 Others -1,725 -654 -461 -345 Cash flow from operations 5,808 5,127 4,878 5,338 Capital expenditure -2,637 -1,164 -1,814 -1,814 Others -691 -1,962 -359 -359 Cash flow from investing -3,328 -3,125 -2,173 -2,173 Equity financing 0 0 0 0 Bank borrowings 202 2,709 -1,124 0 Others -3,282 -2,825 -1,800 -1,959 Cash flow from financing -3,080 -116 -2,924 -1,959 Foreign exchange gain (loss) 253 109 0 0 Net changes in cash -347 1,995 -219 1,206 Source: Corporate filings, CICC Research Company description Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co., Ltd. is a joint venture founded in 1987 in Fuzhou. It specializes in producing automotive safety glass and industrial technological glass, and ranks No.1 in China and No.2 in the world. Fuyao is a major supplier to OEMs and commands more than half of the Chinese OEM market share. Globally, Fuyao has passed certification by eight leading automakers and has become a qualified supplier for Audi, Bentley, VW, GM, Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, PSA, Volvo, Hyundai, and Daimler Chrysler. Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 2 CICC Research: August 9, 2020 Contents Volume and price of automotive glass to both rise ................................................................................................................ 5 Domestic brands begin to upgrade automotive glass ............................................................................................................. 5 We expect the penetration rate of HUD to increase markedly; this product has higher technique requirements on front windshield glass .....................................................................................................................................................................
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