India Daily, July 24, 2014

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India Daily, July 24, 2014 INDIA DAILY July 24, 2014 India 23-Jul 1-day1-mo 3-mo Sensex 26,147 0.5 4.5 14.3 Nifty 7,796 0.4 4.0 14.0 Contents Global/Regional indices Daily Alerts Dow Jones 17,087 (0.2) 0.9 3.5 Nasdaq Composite 4,474 0.4 2.4 8.4 Results FTSE 6,798 0.0 (0.0) 1.8 Cairn India: Low on cash Nikkei 15,352 0.2 (0.2) 6.6 Hang Seng 23,972 0.8 4.8 6.2 ABB: Steady, below-par performance KOSPI 2,029 0.0 1.7 1.5 Value traded – India L&T Finance Holdings: Shifting segments, chasing growth Cash (NSE+BSE) 191 194 211 Thermax: Weak 1QFY15; demand recovery expectations deferred Derivatives (NSE) 2,383 2,753 3,286 Deri. open interest 2,200 2,162 1,896 Results, Change in Reco YES Bank: The comfort of capital; upgrade to ADD JSW Energy: Lower realizations, despite liquidation of banked energy Forex/money market Change, basis points 23-Jul 1-day 1-mo 3-mo Company Rs/US$ 60.0 (1) (23) (113) Exide Industries: Four-wheeler replacement segment still weak; maintain 10yr govt bond, % 8.8 - (8) (43) REDUCE Net investment (US$mn) 22-Jul MTD CYTD Rallis India: Not to worry on lackluster 1QFY15 for Metahelix FIIs 62 1,996 11,913 MFs 48 329 (819) Top movers Change, % Best performers 23-Jul 1-day 1-mo 3-mo UT IN Equity 27.5 5.2 (20.4) 66.7 BHFC IN Equity 694.5 (2.0) 18.8 62.2 RCAPT IN Equity 590.1 (1.2) (8.0) 59.1 SSLT IN Equity 295.6 (0.6) (1.0) 53.5 UPLL IN Equity 319.2 (1.5) 0.4 48.7 Worst performers UNSP IN Equity 2392.0 0.2 (8.3) (15.1) UBBL IN Equity 718.4 (0.7) 3.2 (10.2) CAIR IN Equity 345.6 0.7 (7.3) (1.9) ACEM IN Equity 215.9 (3.2) (3.2) (1.3) ITC IN Equity 353.7 0.2 10.3 0.1 For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES. REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL. REDUCE Cairn India (CAIR) Energy JULY 24, 2014 RESULT Coverage view: Neutral Low on cash. We see the related-party loan facility of US$1.25 bn extended by Cairn Price (Rs): 346 India to a subsidiary of Sesa Sterlite as a significant negative, as it warrants concern on Target price (Rs): 330 effective utilization of existing cash/equivalents and future cashflows of the company, BSE-30: 26,147 notwithstanding the near-term economic rationale indicated by the management. We retain our REDUCE rating on Cairn India stock with a revised DCF-based TP of `330 (`355 previously), factoring in risks to cash utilization through higher cost of equity. Company data and valuation summary Cairn india Stock data Forecasts/Valuations 2014 2015E 2016E 52-week range (Rs) (high,low)386-287 EPS (Rs) 65.2 55.3 48.2 Market Cap. (Rs bn) 659.2 EPS growth (%) 4.4 (15.1) (12.8) QUICK NUMBERS Shareholding pattern (%) P/E (X) 5.3 6.2 7.2 Promoters 58.9 Sales (Rs bn) 243.6 192.0 191.3 • US$4 bn of FIIs 17.8 Net profits (Rs bn) 124.3 103.7 90.4 cash/equivalents, MFs 0.8 EBITDA (Rs bn) 156.0 147.6 136.9 investments and Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M EV/EBITDA (X) 3.8 4.3 4.6 loans as of June 30, Absolute (7.8) (1.9) 11.5 ROE (%) 23.4 14.4 13.6 2014 Rel. to BSE-30 (11.7) (14.2) (13.5) Div. Yield (%) 3.7 3.5 3.5 • `804 bn of gross US$1.25 bn of loan facility extended by Cairn India to a subsidiary of Sesa Sterlite for two years borrowings in Sesa Cairn India has extended US$1.25 bn of loan facility at an interest rate of 3% above LIBOR to a Sterlite as of March subsidiary of Sesa Sterlite for two years, backed by a corporate guarantee from Vedanta Resources 31, 2014 PLC. The company has disbursed an amount of US$800 mn till date and is planning to provide the remaining US$450 mn in the near term. We note that the company has taken the necessary • 1.4 bn boe of 2P + approvals for extending this facility from the Board and Audit Committee, in which the related 2C reserves and parties were not allowed to vote. However, the related-party loan facility is worrying in light of resources, including large debt levels of Sesa Sterlite (see Exhibit 1), in our view. The management indicated that the 1.2 bn boe from yield on the related-party loan is better than other investment instruments in consideration. Rajasthan block The management ruled out the option of returning surplus cash to shareholders in the form of higher dividends, as the company may require the given amount for capex on development of new discoveries from FY2017 onwards, by which time the loan will be repaid to the company. In-line EBITDA and net income in 1QFY15 Cairn India reported 1QFY15 EBITDA and net income (excluding exception item) in line with our estimates at `33.1 bn (-14% qoq) and `27.2 bn (-10.4% qoq) respectively, as lower-than- expected revenues and higher DD&A expenses were offset by lower operating costs and higher other income. Reported net income of `10.9 bn included an exceptional item of `16.3 bn pertaining to impact from retrospective change in accounting of depreciation. Gross production from Rajasthan block declined 4% qoq to 183.2 kboe/d. Crude price realization for Rajasthan block increased 2.7% qoq to US$97.5/bbl, at 11% discount to Dated Brent. Retain REDUCE; fine-tune estimates We retain our REDUCE rating on the stock with a revised DCF-based target price of `330 (`355 previously); the reduction in target price reflects increase in WACC to 12% from 11%, to factor in concerns on effective utilization of cash. We revise our FY2015-17E EPS to `55.3 (+1.3%), `48.2 (-3.1%) and `36.4 (-7.4%) to reflect (1) 1QFY15 results, (2) higher DD&A charges and (3) other minor changes. For private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES, REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL. Cairn India Energy Exhibit 1: Sesa Sterlite has large debt on its balance sheet Details of borrowings of Sesa Sterlite, March fiscal year-end, 2014 (` mn) Long term borrowings Rate of Interest NCD - Vedanta Aluminum 2,667 11.5% NCD - SIL (relates to SEL) 20,000 9.3% NCD - SIL (relates to SEL) 25,000 9.1% NCD - SIL (relates to VAL) 12,000 9.2% NCD - Balco 3,333 12.3% NCD - Balco 5,000 8.6% Talwandi Sabo 15,000 9.8% VGCB 3,000 9.0% Term loans VAL (SBI loan) 96,133 11.8% VAL (Axis bank) 18,000 10.5% SEL (2400 MW) 4,000 11.2% TMHL (Cairn India) 72,120 Libor + 275 bps ECB's VAL 32,728 Libor + 400 bps Balco 12,020 Libor + 260 bps Balco 1,002 Libor + 345 bps VAL (current maturity) 1,503 Libor + 240 bps Buyer's credit VAL 557 Libor + 200 bps VGCB 941 Libor + 224 bps Talwandi Sabo 13,598 Libor + 190 bps Balco 1,003 Libor + 200 bps Balco 5,556 Libor + 160 bps Talwandi Sabo 8,023 Libor + 173 bps FCCB's 30,050 4.0% FCCB's 13,030 5.0% Loan from Vedanta Resources Jersey Ltd. 234,016 7.9% Sub total 630,279 Short term borrowings Buyer's credit from banks Jharsuguda Aluminum 17,408 Libor + 200 bps Copper India 32,788 0.9% SEL 2400 MW 325 Balco 2,629 TSPL 2,885 Libor + 76 bps VGCB 26 2.2% Cash credit 30 Cash credit 675 Working capital loan - Balco 366 Export packing credit 490 10.0% Term loan SEL 2400 MW Term loan 10,000 10.5% Others 106,325 Sub total 173,945 Total borrowings 804,224 Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 3 Energy Cairn India Details of 1QFY15 results Exhibit 2 gives highlights of Cairn’s 1QFY15 results and compares the same with 4QFY14 and 1QFY14. Exhibit 3 gives production from various fields. We discuss the key highlights below. Exhibit 2: Interim results of Cairn India (` mn) (% chg.) 1QFY15 1QFY15E 1QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15E 1QFY14 4QFY14 FY2014 FY2013 (% chg.) FY2015E Income from operations 44,829 46,281 40,629 50,489 (3.1) 10.3 (11.2) 187,617 175,241 7.1 180,805 Total expenditure (11,758) (12,652) (10,531) (12,050) (7.1) 11.7 (2.4) (46,636) (40,361) 15.5 (48,789) Inc/(Dec) in stock 16 32 56 141 274 — Operating expenses (3,298) (3,667) (2,404) (3,448) (10.1) 37.2 (4.4) (11,741) (8,511) 38.0 (14,240) Staff cost (404) (388) (143) (474) 4.2 183.2 (14.9) (2,741) (1,033) 165.4 (1,750) Government taxes (7,292) (7,612) (7,123) (6,835) (4.2) 2.4 6.7 (28,986) (28,077) 3.2 (29,628) Other expenditure (780) (985) (893) (1,349) (20.8) (12.7) (42.2) (3,309) (3,015) 9.7 (3,171) EBITDA 33,070 33,629 30,099 38,439 (1.7) 9.9 (14.0) 140,981 134,880 4.5 132,016 Other income 5,173 3,183 8,071 1,639 62.5 (35.9) 215.5 15,027 10,363 45.0 15,581 Interest (17) (88) (105) (109) (81.1) (84.2) (84.8) (415) (687) (39.6) (350) Exploration costs written off (2,546) (1,625) (1,001) (1,608) 56.7 154.4 58.4 (4,124) (4,549) (9.3) (10,250) DD&A (7,198) (6,294) (5,193) (6,367) 14.4 38.6 13.1 (22,974) (18,459) 24.5 (28,230) Pretax profits 28,482 28,806 31,871 31,995 (1.1) (10.6) (11.0) 128,496 121,548 5.7 108,768 Extraordinaries (16,274) — — — — 1,367 (16,274) Tax — (1,498) (391) (64) (1,463) (2,986) (4,732) Deferred taxation (1,279) — (208) (1,577) (2,715) 636 (350) Net income 10,929 27,308 31,272 30,354 (60.0) (65.1) (64.0) 124,318 120,564 3.1 87,412 Adjusted net income 27,203 27,308 31,272 30,354 (0.4) (13.0) (10.4) 124,318 119,197 4.3 103,686 Adjusted EPS (Rs) 14.5 14.6 16.4 15.9 65.2 62.4 55.3 Income tax rate (%) 4.5 5.2 1.9 5.1 3.3 1.9 5.5 Production, selling price data Production volume, gross ('000 boepd) 217.9 220.8 212.4 224.4 (1.3) 2.6 (2.9) 218.7 205.3 6.5 216.0 Production volume, net ('000 boepd) 137.9 139.2 132.1 142.8 (0.9) 4.4 (3.4) 137.1 127.8 7.3 136.0 Rajasthan oil 127.3 129.5 121.0 132.5 (1.7) 5.2 (3.9) 126.2 118.6 6.5 126.0 CB-OS-2 4.3 3.8 4.3 3.7 12.9 0.9 15.5 3.9 2.7 43.7 4.4 Oil 3.4 2.9 3.4 2.9 14.2 (1.8) 14.5 3.1 1.8 70.6 3.4 Gas (mn cf/d) 5.6 4.7 5.2 4.8 19.0 7.7 16.7 4.8 5.2 (7.7) 5.3 Ravva 5.4 5.9 6.4 5.5 (8.7) (15.3) (1.2) 6.2 6.6 (6.1) 5.6 Oil 4.4 4.6 4.9 4.2 (3.5) (10.6) 3.7 4.8 4.9 (2.4) 4.4 Gas (mn cf/d) 5.9 7.3 8.6 7.2 (19.8) (31.6)
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