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The Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on Maritime Trade and Future Perspectives for Italian Ports

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The Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on Maritime Trade and Future Perspectives for Italian Ports Master’s Degree in Global Development and Entrepreneurship Final Thesis EU-Asia connectivity: the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on maritime trade and future perspectives for Italian ports Supervisor Ch. Prof. Paolo Costa Graduand Alessandro Paladin Matriculation number 871866 Academic Year 2018 / 2019 Acknowledgments First of all, I would like to thank the Ca' Foscari University of Venice that welcomed me for these years of training, the professors met, including my Supervisor, who pushed me to grow, study and intrigued me in the subjects of study. I want to further thank my University for giving me the opportunity to participate in an Erasmus+ program and therefore have a 5-month study experience abroad in Belgium, at the Université catholique de Louvain, where I met some really special people. Secondly, I thank my family, who has supported me economically and morally even in difficult times, pushing me to find the strength to never give up in front of difficulties and to find an alternative solution every time. Finally, I want to thank myself, for never sitting up, for overcoming many limits, for understanding how many times it is necessary to change the point of view to solve a problem, and how it is necessary to stay focused on the final goal, without ever giving up. As the motto that has always accompanied me in life says well: “Non chi comincia ma quel che persevera”, literally “Not the one who starts but the one who perseveres”, that is the motto of the historic training ship of the Italian Navy Amerigo Vespucci. This research, which has taken a lot of time and sacrifice, is dedicate to my two grandparents Gerardo and Corrado, who have left us over the past few years, and who look down on me and love me from up there. Ciao Nonni! Index Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter I Belt and Road Initiative ....................................................................................... 3 1.1 Premise ............................................................................................................................................................................. 3 1.2 The history of the Belt and Road Initiative ....................................................................................................... 5 1.2.1 The Silk Road .............................................................................................................................................................. 5 1.2.2 From OBOR to BRI .................................................................................................................................................... 7 1.2.3 Evolution and some numbers of the BRI ......................................................................................................... 9 1.3 Italy and BRI ................................................................................................................................................................ 14 1.4 Who is financing the BRI? ..................................................................................................................................... 21 1.5 Pros and Cons of the Belt and Road Initiative .............................................................................................. 28 1.5.1 Advantages of BRI .................................................................................................................................................. 28 1.5.2 Criticism of BRI ....................................................................................................................................................... 35 1.6 A geopolitical analysis ............................................................................................................................................ 44 1.6.1 The Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy (FOIP) ..................................................................................... 52 Chapter II Maritime Trade, Belt and Road influences and two strategies compared ......... 57 2.1 The importance of the Sea .................................................................................................................................... 57 2.1.1 A safe Sea ................................................................................................................................................................... 61 2.2 Maritime trade ........................................................................................................................................................... 65 2.2.1 Evolutions and different types of maritime freight transport ............................................................ 65 2.2.2 Ports and maritime trade routes .................................................................................................................... 70 2.2.3 LSCI and LPI comparison .................................................................................................................................... 77 2.3 The maritime trade on the East-West route ................................................................................................. 83 2.3.1 The importance of Chokepoints ....................................................................................................................... 86 2.3.2 The renew centrality of the Mediterranean ............................................................................................... 90 2.3.3 The Suez Canal and its SEZ ................................................................................................................................ 95 2.4 The future maritime trade routes proposed by BRI ............................................................................... 103 2.4.1 The impact of some factors on maritime trade ..................................................................................... 112 2.5 Two strategies compared ................................................................................................................................... 119 2.5.1 The Chinese strategy .......................................................................................................................................... 119 2.5.2 The European Union strategy ........................................................................................................................ 123 2.5.3 The necessary convergence of the two strategies ................................................................................. 130 Chapter III The Italian case .............................................................................................. 139 3.1 Italy-Asia export ..................................................................................................................................................... 139 3.2 Future perspectives for Italian freight ports ............................................................................................. 144 3.2.1 Privatizations? ..................................................................................................................................................... 148 3.2.2 The multi-port systems in Italy ..................................................................................................................... 150 3.2.3 The three multi-port systems of Southern Italy ..................................................................................... 153 3.2.4 The multi-port systems of Upper Tyrrhenian Sea ................................................................................. 160 3.2.5 The multi-port system of the Upper Adriatic Sea .................................................................................. 165 3.3 Future challenges ................................................................................................................................................... 179 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 189 Bibliography ................................................................................................................... 193 1 Introduction This final thesis analyses the desire to increase connectivity between Asian countries (in particular China) and European countries, with many world powers involved in the development of the Eurasia, Asian and African areas and with a main focus on maritime trade. It all starts with the analysis of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by the President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping in 2013, which aims to increase infrastructure connectivity, by land and sea, between the countries involved in the project, but it is also an initiative that aims to increase economic, political and cultural relations. Under the BRI framework will be analysed the routes of the New Silk Road, the countries and the population involved, and the major funders of this project. This will be followed by an analysis of Italy's role in particular after the signing of the MoU and commercial and institutional agreements between China and Italy in March 2019. There will be a geopolitical analysis on pros and cons of this global project, highlighting real Chinese intentions and international reactions to the project, especially by the USA Government, with the creation of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy (FOIP), together with Japan. The central part of
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