El Futuro Económico de América Latina: ¿Hecho en China?
Ciudad de Guatemala
2828--2929 de febrero del 2012
Oficina del Economista Jefe América Latina y el Caribe 1 Banco Mundial El entorno global Turbulencia financiera coyuntural
2 Coyuntura global marcada por fragilidad y volatilidad financiera
S&P 500 and VIX Index 90 VIX Index 1800 80 1600 S&P500 (rhs) 70 1400
60 1200
50 1000
40 800 S&P 500 S&P VIX Index Index VIXVIX 30 600
20 400
10 200
0 0 10 07 11 09 10 11 09 08 12 07 07 08 09 ------Jul Jan Jan Jun Sep Feb Oct Apr Mar Dec Aug May Nov
Sources: Bloomberg. 3 El epicentro europeo La reversión de las fortunas
Global Sovereign CDS Global Sovereign CDS 31-Dec-2007, in basis points Feb-2012, in basis points Argentina Greece Venezuela Portugal Ukrain Venezuela Kazakhastan Ukraine Tukey Argentina Phillipines Ireland Indonesia Hungary Colombia avg Panama Croatia Peru Italy Vietnam Romania Brazil Spain Russia Bulgaria Romania Slovak Rep South Africa Turkey Bulgaria Kazakhastan Mexico Poland Croatia Belgium Thailand Russia Hungary Thailand Korea South Africa Malaysia Indonesia Chile France Poland Phillipines Italy Peru Greece Korea Ireland Brazil Slovak Rep Mexico Portugal Colombia Spain Malaysia Belgium Panama France Chile Germany Germany Sweden Sweden
0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Notes: In panel A, for Ireland we use the first CDS quote available (August 2008). Sources: Bloomberg. 4 El epicentro europeo Trauma y drama ––¿cuánto¿cuánto más por venir?
CDS (5 years) in Europe 2500 In Basis Points
Ireland+Greece+Portugal 2000 France UK Spain 1500 Italy
1000
500
0 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 11 ------Jul Jan Jun Sep Sep Feb Oct Apr Mar Dec Aug Aug May Nov
Notes: In panel A, for Ireland we use the first CDS quote available (August 2008). Sources: Bloomberg. 5 El epicentro europeo 1 moneda, 17 deudas soberanas
Spreads Over German Bonds In % 25% Official Launch of the Euro 20% Portugal Greece 15% Ireland France 10% Italy
5% Spain
0%
-5% 01 04 07 95 05 93 06 10 94 98 00 08 96 11 99 03 09 97 ------Jul Jul Jan Jun Jun Sep Sep Feb Oct Apr Apr Mar Mar Aug Aug May May Nov
Source: Bloomberg 6 El epicentro europeo Heterogeneidad estructural y la trampa CDM
Unit Labor Costs in Europe Index base 100 = q1-2000 200 Germany 180 Italy Portugal 160 Greece France Spain 140 Debt Sustainability in Europe Theoretical vs Actual Primary Balance 20.0% 120 Actual 15.0% 100 Theoretical
80 10.0% 2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 ------5.0% Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 % of% GDP 0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0% Greece France Ireland Portugal Italy Spain
Source: EuroStats and Bloomberg. For panel B, the theoretical primary balances is calculated using the last observation of the nominal interests rates on 10ys bonds, and 7 assuming a long term inflation and growth of 1.5% and 2%, respectively. El epicentro estadounidence Débil recuperación económica: Keynes vs. Fischer
US Economic Activity GDP Index base 100 = Iq - 2003 135
130 2003-2007 trend 125 Industrial Production and ISM Index 120
- 2003 Industrial Production (YoY %) 70 10.0% 115
60 110 5.0% 105 50
Index base 100 = Iq Iq Iq ==basebase 100 100IndexIndex 0.0% 100 40 95 -5.0% 30 90 Index ISM 03 06 09 04 05 07 08 10 11 03 06 09 12 -10.0% ------20 IndustrialProduction(YoY) Jun Jun Jun Sep Sep Sep Mar Mar Mar Mar Dec Dec Dec ISM Index -15.0% 10 Industrial Production 0 -20.0% 06 07 08 09 10 11 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 06 07 08 09 10 11 ------Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr
Sources: Consensus Forecasts (Feb-2012)and Bloomberg. 8 El epicentro estadounidence Menor calificación crediticia pero el lugar de refugio
Gold and US T10 2011-2012 2000 4.0%
1900 Foreign Currencies Per Dollar 3.5% Index base 100 = 1-Jan-2011 1800 115 Yen UK Pound 1700 3.0% Euro Real 110 1600 USD Percent 2.5% 1500 105
1400 Gold 2.0% 1300 100 US T10 1200 1.5% … 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 ------95 Nov Jul Jul Jan Jan Jun Sep Feb Oct Apr Mar Mar Dec Dec Aug May
90 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 ------Jul Jan Jan Jun Sep Feb Oct Apr Mar Dec Dec Aug May Nov
Source: Bloomberg 9 El entorno global Multipolaridad económica
10 Desacoplamiento cíclico ––centrocentro vs. periferia
World Industrial Production Index Apr-08 = 100 120 115 Crisis 110 Advanced Economies Emerging Economies 105 100 Contribution to World Economic GDP 95 as a % of World GDP increase (PPP) 100% 8% 8% 90 11% 8% 7% 8% 85 80% 80 34% 11 10 - - 60% 44% 57% Jul-09 Jan-06 Oct-07 Feb Sep-10 Apr Dec-08 Mar-07 Aug-06 May-08 40%
51% 20% 38% 27%
0% 1996-2001 2001-2006 2009-2011 Others Other Advanced Economies EM - 20 Euro (15)+US+Japan+Canada+UK
Note: The group of developed countries refers to OECD countries excluding Turkey, Mexico, Republic of Korea, and Central European 11 countries. Source: CPB (Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis). Cambios tectónicos en la distribución de la actividad económica global
Share of World GDP
100% Advanced economies 90% Emerging and developing 80% economies China 70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Source: IMF WEO (September 2011) 12 Implicaciones para América Latina
13 Crecimiento reciente y pronósticos para el 2012
Real GDP Growth Forecasts Around the World Actual Growth and Growth Forecast: LAC Countries Annual Real GDP Growth Rate, Weighted Averages Weighted Averages for LAC 9.0% 12% 45,000 2011e 8.0% 40,000 10% 7.0% 2012f 35,000 6.0% 8% 30,000 5.0% 25,000 6% 20,000 4.0%
4% 15,000 3.0% % Growth Rate Growth%
10,000 GDP percapita PPP 2.0% 2% 5,000 1.0% 0% 0 0.0% High South Europe & Latin East Asian India China Income Africa Central America & Tigers Peru Peru LAC LAC Chile Chile
Asia Caribbean Brazil Brazil Bolivia Bolivia Mexico Mexico Jamaica Jamaica Panama Panama Ecuador Ecuador Uruguay Uruguay Paraguay Paraguay Colombia Colombia Argentina Argentina Nicaragua Nicaragua Venezuela Venezuela Costa Rica Rica CostaCosta Guatemala Guatemala Dom. Rep. Rep. Dom.Dom. El Salvador Salvador ElEl 2010 2011 2012 GDP per capita PPP (2010) && Tob. Tob. Trin. Trin. LAC 2012 GDP Growth Forecasts Evolution In % 5.5%
LAC (weighted average) 5.0% Guatemala
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5% 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 ------Jul Jan Jan Jun Sep Feb Apr Oct Mar Dec Aug May Nov
Sources: Consensus Forecast (Feb- 2012), and IMF WEO (September 2011) 14 Desigual desempeño económico en la región La heterogeneidad ha ido mutando en la última década
Low-Growth Countries Intermediate-Growth Countries GDP Index 2002=100 GDP Index 2002=100
180 180 Actual Actual 160 2003 -2007 Trend 160 2003 -2007 Trend
140 140
120 120
100 100
80 80 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Guatemala High-Growth Countries GDP Index 2002=100 GDP Index 2002=100 180 180 Actual Actual 2003 -2007 Trend 160 160 2003-2007 Trend
140 140
120 120
100 100
80 80 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Sources: Potential GPD is computed as the average rate of growth between 2007 and 2003. Simple averages are used to construct the composite. The categorization of each group is as follow: Slow-growth are those countries that showed a less than 3.5% in their 2011-2008 GDP real growth rate; Medium-growth are those between 3.5% and 10%: High-growth are 15 those with 10% or more. WEO (September– 2011). Desigual desempeño económico Importa menos la ubicación que la conexión
(Geometric) (Geometric) (Geometric) Mean growth Mean growth Mean growth Min. Max. 2003-2007 2007-2009 2009-2012 2009-2012 2009-2012 Simple Average Simple Average Simple Average Low growth (13) 4.9% -1.6% 1.3% -0.1% 4.3% Medium growth (7) 4.5% 1.7% 3.4% 2.6% 4.4% Guatemala 4.5% 3.6% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% High growth (12) 5.9% 4.5% 6.0% 4.5% 8.7% LAC (all countries) 4.8% 1.1% 3.5% -0.1% 8.7%
Low growth : Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Dominica, El Salvador, Grenada, Jamaica, Mexico, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela
Intermediate growth : Belize, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua
High growth: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic , Guyana, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname and Uruguay
Sources: World Bank’s World Development Indicators – WDI (December 2010), IMF's World Economic Outlook – WEO (April 2011), and Consensus Forecasts (June 2011) – 16 Latest available forecasts. Potential GDP is calculated computing the annual average real growth rate for the 2002-2007 to 2007 GDP. Weighted averages (2007 Nominal GDP in USD Billions). La creciente pero desigual conexión con China…
Main Trade Partners by Exports Output Co-Movement Between LAC and China 2009 20 years rolling correlation of the Real GDP Growth 100% 0.8 Brazil Chile 90% Colombia Mexico 0.6 Peru Argentina 80% Panama Dom. Rep. 70% 0.4 60% 0.2 50% World UE15 0.0 40% LAC 30% USA -0.2 ofofExports Exports %% Total Total CHN 20% -0.4 10%
-0.6 0% … Peru Chile Brazil Belize
-0.8 Bolivia Mexico Jamaica Guyana Panama Ecuador Uruguay Grenada Paraguay Bahamas Barbados Suriname St.Vinc.& Colombia Dominica Argentina Honduras Nicaragua Venezuela Costa Rica Costa Dom. Rep. Dom. Guatemala Trin.&Tob.
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Salvador El
17 … está fuertemente mediatizada por commodities
Commodity Prices Cumulative Change in Terms of Trade Oil WTI in Current US$, Wheat, Copper and Soybean: Index base Monthly Data, Avg. 2002Q1 vs. Avg. 2011Q1 Jan-05=100 400 Peru 150 Chile 350 Ecuador 130 Argentina 300 LAC 110 250 Colombia Uruguay 90 200 Mexico
Index01-Jan-05=100 Guatemala
70 CurrentWTI, Oil US$ 150
Wheat, Copper and Soybean,CopperandWheat, Brazil 100 50 Jamaica Panama 50 30 Costa Rica
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Honduras ------
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan -20% 10% 40% 70% 100% 130%
Terms of Trade 1.4 Px/Pm Index 2005 = 100
LAC 6 Average 1.3 Guatemala
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7 08 93 98 03 05 07 10 12 92 95 97 00 02 07 09 92 94 97 99 02 04 06 11 96 01 ------Jun Jun Jun Jun Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb Oct Oct Oct Oct Apr Apr Apr Apr Dec Dec Dec Dec Aug Aug Aug Aug
18 En el corto plazo el foco está en la vulnerabilidad El sistema inmunológico macro de LAC ha mejorado
Exchange Rate and Interest Rate in Guatemala Exchange Rate and Interest Rate in Guatemala 9 50% 8.6 8%
45% 8.4 8.5 7% 40% 8.2 8 35% 8 7.5 30% 6% 7.8 7 25% 7.6 20% 5% 6.5 Series1 Series2 7.4 15% 6 7.2 Nominal Exchange Rate 10% 4% 5.5 7 5% Interest Rate
5 0% 6.8 3% 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 ------97 97 99 00 01 02 02 04 05 06 98 99 00 03 04 05 97 98 99 01 02 03 04 06 ------Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jul Jul Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Jan Jan Jun Jun Sep Sep Feb Feb Apr Apr Oct Oct Mar Mar Dec Dec Aug Aug May May Nov Nov
Exchange Rate Flexibility Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff Index Interest Rates in LAC 14 Monetary Policy Rates Inflation-Targeting LAC Countries 0.20 Fed Funds Target 12 0.18 Brazil Chile 0.16 Colombia 10 0.14 Peru Mexico 8 0.12 Guatemala 1998 0.10 6 2010 0.08
4 0.06
0.04 2 0.02
0 0.00 06 07 08 09 10 11 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 06 07 08 09 10 11 06 07 08 09 10 11 ------Colombia Brazil Chile Mexico Peru Guatemala ------Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr
Notes: The Exchange Rate Flexibility Index is between 1 (totally rigid exchange rate regime) and 13 (freely floating exchange regime. 19 El foco de largo plazo es crecimiento con equidad ¿¿Cómo salir de los 100 años de soledad en el crecimiento?
GDP Per Capita of Relative to the US Selected Regions, Weighted Averages
90% Gold Standard Interwar Period Import Substitution Lost Washington Washington Average TFP growth per year Period Decade Consensus Dissensus 80% Avg 61-70 Avg 71-80 Avg 81-90 Avg 91-00 Avg 01-08Avg 61-08 70% LAC 7 1.9% 0.4% -2.0% 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% 60% Non - LAC 7 1.1% 0.5% -2.0% 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% Costa Rica 2.2% -1.3% -2.6% 0.2% 0.2% -0.3% 50% Dominican Republic 0.1% 0.2% -0.8% 2.3% 1.7% 0.7% El Salvador 0.9% -1.6% -1.9% 0.5% 0.0% -0.4% 40% Guatemala 2.1% 1.2% -1.7% 0.4% -0.6% 0.3% 30% Honduras 0.3% 1.0% -1.3% -2.7% 1.2% -0.3% Nicaragua 2.2% -1.4% -3.8% -1.4% -1.3% -1.1% 20% Trinidad &Tobago 3.0% -1.3% -3.0% 3.3% 8.1% 2.0% EAP 3.1% 2.1% 2.3% 1.3% 2.0% 2.2% 10% China -0.5% 0.9% 1.6% 3.4% 6.2% 2.3% 0% United States 0.9% -0.4% 1.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% Japan 6.7% 1.1% 1.4% -0.7% 0.9% 1.9% 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 LAC EAP: High Income Guatemala
20 Guatemala está entre los países de “resago estable”
Diverging Non-Converging 80% 80%
70% 70%
60% 60%
50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 1955 1955 1960 1960 1965 1965 1970 1970 1975 1975 1980 1980 1985 1985 1990 1990 1995 1995 2000 2000 2005 2005 2010 2010 1950 1950 1950 1950 1955 1955 1960 1960 1965 1965 1970 1970 1975 1975 1980 1980 1985 1985 1990 1990 1995 1995 2000 2000 2005 2005 2010 2010 Colombia Guatemala El Salvador Bolivia Paraguay Venezuela Argentina Uruguay
Semi-Converging Fluctuating 50% 50% 45% 45% 40% 40%
35% 35% 30% 30%
25% 25%
20% 20%
15% 15%
10% 10% 5% 5%
0% 0% 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1950 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Chile Dominican Republic Mexico Brazil
Notes: Maddison (2007-2009) was used from 1900 to 2006 and Real Per Capita GDP growth from WDI was used to calculate the levels from 2006 to 2010. Source: LCRCE 21 Staff calculations based on Maddison (2007, 2009) and WDI. Las cortapisas al crecimiento de largo plazo Ahorro e inversión bajas
Gross Domestic Savings Investment Decade Average Decade Average 35% 40% LAC-7 35% LAC -7 30% EAP EAP Guatemala 30% 25% Guatemala 25% 20% 20%
15% of% GDP % of% GDP 15%
10% 10%
5% 5%
0% 0% 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's
Notes: In Panel A, EAP includes Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea Rep., Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. In Panel B, EAP includes Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea Rep., Malaysia, 22 Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. Both in Panel A and B, LAC-7 includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela. Sources: WDI, Penn World Tables, and The International Energy Agency (IEA). En Guatemala Insuficientes recursos para bienes públicos
Tax revenues by type of taxes % GDP 60.0 Direct tax revenues Indirect tax revenues 50.0 Social contributions Other taxes 40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 Guatemala Venezuela Honduras Chile USA Argentina Brasil OECD Suecia
23 Las cortapisas al crecimiento de largo plazo Brechas de infraestructura
Electricity Installed Capacity Road Density In thousands of KW per 1000 people, simple averages In thousands of KM per 1000 people, simple average 0.0090 1.4 EAP 0.0080 LAC7 + URY 1.2 LAC7 + URY Guatemala (available data) 0.0070 Guatemala 1.0 0.0060
0.8 0.0050
0.6 0.0040
0.0030 0.4 0.0020 0.2 0.0010 0.0 0.0000 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
24 Las cortapisas al crecimiento de largo plazo Brechas institucionales
Control of Corruption Rule of Law 3 2.5
2.5 2
2 1.5
1.5 1
1 0.5
0.5 0
0 -0.5
-0.5 -1 Guatemala
-1 Guatemala -1.5
-1.5 -2
-2 -2.5 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Log of GDP per capita PPP in 2010 Log of GDP per capita PPP in 2010
Regulatory Quality Government Effectiveness 2.5 2.5
2 2
1.5 1.5
1 1
0.5 0.5
0 0 Guatemala -0.5 -0.5
-1 -1
-1.5 -1.5 Guatemala
-2 -2
-2.5 -2.5 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Log of GDP per capita PPP in 2010 Log of GDP per capita PPP in 2010
Source: D. Kaufmann, A. Kraay, and M. Mastruzzi 2003: G 25 Las cortapisas al crecimiento de largo plazo Brechas en capital humano Guatemala LAC-7 East Asian Tigers 1990 2010 2010 2.8 9.9 7.9 9.7 14.2 20.3
No School Primary 46.7 29.3 Secondary Tertiary 40.3 40.6 37.5
40.7 LAC-7 East Asian Tigers 1990 Guatemala 1990 1990 9.5 2.8 16.4 10 9.9 19.3
23.1 No School Primary 29.7 46.7 Secondary Tertiary
40.6 51 40.9
Source: Author’s calculation based on Household datasets and Barro-Lee (2010) 26 Gracias
27 Tipo de cambio efectivo: nominal y real
Nominal Effective Exchange Rates Real Effective Exchange Rates Index Jan-2006 = 100 Index Jan-06=100 160 160 Brazil Brazil Chile 150 Chile 150 Colombia Colombia Mexico 140 140 Mexico Peru Guatemala 130 Peru 130 Guatemala 120 120 110 110 100 100
90 90
80 80
70 70
60 60 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 06 07 08 09 10 11 06 07 08 09 10 11 ------06 07 08 09 10 11 ------06 07 08 09 10 11 ------Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr
Source: World Bank and IFS. 28