Ocean Science: Planning for the Future
Anthony Dvarskas Stony Brook University School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences
1 Presentation Outline
• Ocean Sciences 101: Cycles and Systems • What happens when we perturb these cycles and systems? • How can assessment and accounts help us understand these systems?
2 OCEANS SCIENCES 101: CYCLES AND SYSTEMS
3 Ocean Basins
4 The Ocean’s Many Layers
Source: NOAA 5 View from below
6 Surface Circulation
Source: Scripps
7 Thermohaline Circulation
• Intermediate and deep ocean currents join with surface currents to create conveyor • https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/nati onal/health-science/the-thermohaline- circulation-the-great-ocean-conveyor- belt/2015/03/23/c1f126ae-d192-11e4-8b1e- 274d670aa9c9_video.html?utm_term=.57e2b ad635c2
8 Why do currents matter? • Transfer of heat
• Transfer of oxygen, CO2 and nutrients • Movement of organisms and/or their larvae
Source: World Ocean Review 9 Source: NOAA 10 Aquatic Life
11 Aquatic Life By Zones
12 Aquatic Life By Topography
Source: Morato 2010. 13 Source: CMORE 14 Ocean Carbonate System
Air CO2 (g)
Sea CO2 H20
- + HCO3 H
2- + CO3 H
Ca2+ 15 Estuaries • Important interface between terrestrial and marine systems • Organisms that rely on the complex mix of freshwater and saltwater thrive • Pressures emerge and enter the coastal and marine system
16 Connection to Coastal Economy • Coasts are where economic activity occurs related to oceans • Depends on condition of ecosystem (e.g., biomass quality and quantity, water quality, biodiversity) • https://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/enow.html
17 SHOCKS TO THE SYSTEM
18 Climate Change and Other Anthropogenic Effects • Human-induced changes perturb marine systems
– CO2 emissions – Nutrient application
20 Coastal Flooding Consequences
Source: Climate Central and New York Times 21 Melting Sea Ice
22 Pity the Polar Bear?
Source: Amstrup 2010 23 But Happy Humans?
Source: Smith 2013 24 Shifting Species • Is it good or bad? It’s different…
American Lobster
Cod and Snake Blenny Surf Clams Red Hake 25 Species Changes and Food Webs
• Loss or gain of biomass • Cascading effects • New predators, new competition
• Effects on CaCO3 not clear
27 Ocean Carbonate System
Air CO2 (g)
Sea CO2 H20
- + HCO3 H
2- + CO3 H
Ca2+ 28 Nitrogen Cycle Revisited
29 Dead Zones
30 ASSESSMENT OF CHANGES
31 Integrated Ecosystem Assessment
• NOAA tracking of indicators for identified coastal and marine areas
32 World Ocean Assessment
• Completed in 2015 • Organized around ten key themes
Impacts of Climate Change Increasing inputs of harmful materials Mortality and less successful Cumulative impacts of human reproduction of marine biotas activities on biodiversity
Food security/safety Distribution of ocean benefits and disbenefits Patterns of biodiversity Integrated management Increased use of ocean space Urgency of addressing challenges 33 Role for Accounting System
• Structure for linking economic and environmental • Efficiency in global comparisons (across countries) • Opportunity for organizing data (and models) and identifying data (and model) gaps
34 Questions?
Anthony Dvarskas School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences Stony Brook University [email protected] +1-631-632-9674
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