Ocean Science: Planning for the Future

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Ocean Science: Planning for the Future Anthony Dvarskas Stony Brook University School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences 1 Presentation Outline • Ocean Sciences 101: Cycles and Systems • What happens when we perturb these cycles and systems? • How can assessment and accounts help us understand these systems? 2 OCEANS SCIENCES 101: CYCLES AND SYSTEMS 3 Ocean Basins 4 The Ocean’s Many Layers Source: NOAA 5 View from below 6 Surface Circulation Source: Scripps 7 Thermohaline Circulation • Intermediate and deep ocean currents join with surface currents to create conveyor • https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/nati onal/health-science/the-thermohaline- circulation-the-great-ocean-conveyor- belt/2015/03/23/c1f126ae-d192-11e4-8b1e- 274d670aa9c9_video.html?utm_term=.57e2b ad635c2 8 Why do currents matter? • Transfer of heat • Transfer of oxygen, CO2 and nutrients • Movement of organisms and/or their larvae Source: World Ocean Review 9 Source: NOAA 10 Aquatic Life 11 Aquatic Life By Zones 12 Aquatic Life By Topography Source: Morato 2010. 13 Source: CMORE 14 Ocean Carbonate System Air CO2 (g) Sea CO2 H20 - + HCO3 H 2- + CO3 H Ca2+ 15 Estuaries • Important interface between terrestrial and marine systems • Organisms that rely on the complex mix of freshwater and saltwater thrive • Pressures emerge and enter the coastal and marine system 16 Connection to Coastal Economy • Coasts are where economic activity occurs related to oceans • Depends on condition of ecosystem (e.g., biomass quality and quantity, water quality, biodiversity) • https://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/enow.html 17 SHOCKS TO THE SYSTEM 18 Climate Change and Other Anthropogenic Effects • Human-induced changes perturb marine systems – CO2 emissions – Nutrient application 19 Sea Level Rise 20 Coastal Flooding Consequences Source: Climate Central and New York Times 21 Melting Sea Ice 22 Pity the Polar Bear? Source: Amstrup 2010 23 But Happy Humans? Source: Smith 2013 24 Shifting Species • Is it good or bad? It’s different… American Lobster Cod and Snake Blenny Surf Clams Red Hake 25 Species Changes and Food Webs • Loss or gain of biomass • Cascading effects • New predators, new competition 26 Ocean Acidification • Effects on CaCO3 not clear 27 Ocean Carbonate System Air CO2 (g) Sea CO2 H20 - + HCO3 H 2- + CO3 H Ca2+ 28 Nitrogen Cycle Revisited 29 Dead Zones 30 ASSESSMENT OF CHANGES 31 Integrated Ecosystem Assessment • NOAA tracking of indicators for identified coastal and marine areas 32 World Ocean Assessment • Completed in 2015 • Organized around ten key themes Impacts of Climate Change Increasing inputs of harmful materials Mortality and less successful Cumulative impacts of human reproduction of marine biotas activities on biodiversity Food security/safety Distribution of ocean benefits and disbenefits Patterns of biodiversity Integrated management Increased use of ocean space Urgency of addressing challenges 33 Role for Accounting System • Structure for linking economic and environmental • Efficiency in global comparisons (across countries) • Opportunity for organizing data (and models) and identifying data (and model) gaps 34 Questions? Anthony Dvarskas School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences Stony Brook University [email protected] +1-631-632-9674 35.

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