The Ocean Economy in 2030 Contents Chapter 1. An overview of the ocean economy: Assessments and recommendations Part I. Global trends and macro-factors influencing the ocean economy The Ocean Economy in 2030 Chapter 2. Global trends and uncertainties to 2030/2060 Chapter 3. Expected changes to the ocean environment: Impacts on the ocean economy Part II. Critical factors influencing the emerging ocean-based industries Chapter 4. Science, technology and innovation in tomorrow’s ocean economy Chapter 5. International maritime regulation and emerging ocean-based industries Chapter 6. Measuring the global economic contribution of ocean-based industries Part III. Perspectives on and projections of the future of the ocean economy Chapter 7. Growth prospects, challenges and uncertainties for selected ocean industries Chapter 8. Ocean industries to 2030 Chapter 9. Towards integrated ocean management The Ocean Economy in 2030 Consult this publication on line at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264251724-en. This work is published on the OECD iLibrary, which gathers all OECD books, periodicals and statistical databases. Visit www.oecd-ilibrary.org for more information. ISBN 978-92-64-25171-7 92 2016 02 1 The Ocean Economy in 2030 This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of OECD member countries. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Please cite this publication as: OECD (2016), The Ocean Economy in 2030, OECD Publishing, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264251724-en ISBN 978-92-64-25171-7 (print) ISBN 978-92-64-25172-4 (PDF) The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. Photo credits: Cover © MareLife, designed by Arild Saeter Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found on line at: www.oecd.org/about/publishing/corrigenda.htm. © OECD 2016 You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgement of OECD as source and copyright owner is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights should be submitted to [email protected]. Requests for permission to photocopy portions of this material for public or commercial use shall be addressed directly to the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC) at [email protected] or the Centre français d’exploitation du droit de copie (CFC) at [email protected]. FOREWORD – 3 Foreword The ocean economy is essential to the future welfare and prosperity of humankind. It is a key source of food, energy, minerals, health, leisure and transport upon which hundreds of millions of people depend. However, the maritime industry landscape is poised to undergo a profound transition. Long considered the traditional domain of shipping, fishing and – since the 1960s – offshore oil and gas, new activities are emerging that are reshaping and diversifying maritime industries. The new “ocean economy” is driven by a combination of population growth, rising incomes, dwindling natural resources, responses to climate change and pioneering technologies. While traditional maritime industries continue to innovate at a brisk rate, it is the emerging ocean industries that are attracting most of the attention. These industries include offshore wind, tidal and wave energy; oil and gas exploration and production in ultra-deep water and exceptionally harsh environments; offshore aquaculture; seabed mining; cruise tourism; maritime surveillance and marine biotechnology. The long-term potential for innovation, employment creation and economic growth offered by these sectors is impressive. But economic activity in the ocean is also characterised by a complex variety of risks that need to be addressed. Foremost among them are those related to ocean health from over-exploitation of marine resources, pollution, rising sea temperatures and levels, ocean acidification and loss of biodiversity. Unsustainable use of the ocean and its resources threatens the very basis on which much of the world’s welfare and prosperity depend. Realising the full potential of the ocean economy, therefore, will demand responsible, sustainable approaches to its economic development. Surprisingly perhaps, given its primordial role, the ocean economy has only recently begun to garner attention and move up the international policy agenda. Numerous international organisations are involved in efforts to address the challenges of sustainable use of the ocean. The OECD – while contributing at international policy level to specific aspects of ocean-related issues such as fisheries, shipbuilding, marine biodiversity and biotechnology – has to date not turned its attention to economic activities in the ocean more broadly. This report is the first such endeavour by the OECD to consider the ocean from an economic perspective, with a view to exploring what the Organisation’s future contribution might be in supporting national and international efforts towards a more sustainable development of the ocean economy in the future. The three-year project on which this report is based grew out of a horizon scanning and scoping exercise performed in 2011 by the OECD International Futures Programme (IFP), now part of the OECD’s Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation (DSTI). The scoping assignment was funded by a voluntary financial contribution from the Korean Maritime Institute. The scoping results were presented and discussed at a special symposium during the EXPO 2012 held in Yeosu, Korea, and fed into the 2012 Yeosu Declaration on the Living Ocean and Coast (see: http://eng.expo2012.kr/is/ps/unity bbs/bbs/selectBbsDetail.html?ispsBbsId=BBS001&ispsNttId=0000060031). THE OCEAN ECONOMY IN 2030 © OECD 2016 4 – FOREWORD The “Future of the Ocean Economy” project aimed to explore the growth prospects for the ocean economy, and its capacity for employment creation and innovation. It was designed as a cross-sectoral, cross-disciplinary foresight exercise. Particular attention has been devoted to the emerging ocean-based industries in light of their particularly high potential in terms of growth, innovation and contribution to addressing global challenges such as energy security, environment, climate change and food security. Hence, the present report examines the risks and uncertainties surrounding the future development of ocean industries, the innovations required in science and technology to support their progress, the environmental impacts of the industries, their potential contribution to green growth as well as their negative externalities, and some of the implications for planning and regulation. Finally, and looking across the future ocean economy as a whole, it explores possible avenues for action that could boost its long-term development prospects while managing the use of the ocean itself in responsible, sustainable ways. The project has been undertaken in extensive collaboration with several other parts of the OECD, notably the Environment Directorate; the Trade and Agriculture Directorate; the Economics Department; the Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs and Local Economic Development; the International Transport Forum; the International Energy Agency; as well as with shipbuilding and biotechnology experts within DSTI. In addition, the project team collaborated with more than 200 external experts (see Annex A). The cross-sectoral approach to the ocean economy is based on a series of ten specialised in-depth workshops, mainly hosted and funded by governments and organisations participating in the project. Most workshops were sector-specific. These comprised offshore wind, ocean renewable energy; deep-water oil and gas exploration and production; offshore aquaculture; deep-sea mining; maritime safety and surveillance; maritime tourism; marine biotechnology; marine spatial planning; and scenario building for the ocean economy. Eight of the workshops generated working papers that are being released in conjunction with the current volume (for details see Annex B). The project was supported by voluntary financial and in-kind contributions from a wide range of government departments and agencies, corporations, research institutions, foundations and international NGOs who constituted the Project Steering Group. These are listed in Annex A Their contributions are acknowledged with sincere thanks. Barrie Stevens directed the project, chaired the meetings of the Project Advisory Group and was the principal author of this report. Torgeir Edvardsen was responsible for project management and co-chaired the workshops. Anita Gibson provided technical and logistical support to the project, the meetings of the advisory group and the workshops. Anna-Sophie Liebender led the economic modelling work on the ocean industries as well as the projections of the ocean economy, and contributed several chapters. JongJune Lee and Daniel Mittendorf provided important contributions to the modelling