SWP Research Paper Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Muriel Asseburg (ed.) Protest, Revolt and Regime Change in the Arab World Actors, Challenges, Implications and Policy Options RP 6 February 2012 Berlin All rights reserved. © Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, 2012 SWP Research Papers are peer reviewed by senior researchers and the execu- tive board of the Institute. They express exclusively the personal views of the author(s). SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Ludwigkirchplatz 34 10719 Berlin Germany Phone +49 30 880 07-0 Fax +49 30 880 07-100 www.swp-berlin.org
[email protected] ISSN 1863-1053 Translation by Meredith Dale (Updated English version of SWP-Studie 27/2011) Table of Contents 5 Introduction: A Region in Unrest III. Geopolitical Implications Muriel Asseburg 39 The Arab Spring and the Islamic Republic of Iran: Islamist Vision Meets Political Reality I. Actors Walter Posch 11 The Libyan Revolution: 42 The Arab Spring and the Arab-Israeli Conflict: Old Elites and New Political Forces Freedom without Peace? Wolfram Lacher Muriel Asseburg 15 Calm and Squalls: 47 Regional Repercussions of Revolution and The Small Gulf Monarchies in the Arab Spring Civil War in Libya Katja Niethammer Wolfram Lacher 18 No “Facebook Revolution” – But an Egyptian 51 The United States and the Arab Spring: Youth We Know Little About The End of the Post-9/11 Paradigm Asiem El Difraoui Johannes Thimm II. Social, Economic and Political Challenges IV. Challenges and Policy Options for Europe 23 Saudi Arabia: Buying Stability? 57 Testing Times for Energy Security and Ulrike Freitag Cooperation Kirsten Westphal 27 Yemen Without Ali Abdallah Saleh? Iris Glosemeyer 61 Migration from Transition States to the EU: Mobility Partnerships and the Global Approach 31 Jordan and Morocco: Pacification through to Migration Constitutional Reform? Steffen Angenendt André Bank 34 Egypt: Complex Challenges of Simultaneous V.