Accelerating 5G in the Nordic and Baltic Region: Steppingstones for Cross Border Collaboration
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ACCELERATING 5G IN THE NORDIC AND BALTIC REGION: STEPPINGSTONES FOR CROSS BORDER COLLABORATION ACCELERATING 5G IN THE NORDIC AND BALTIC REGION: STEPPINGSTONES FOR CROSS BORDER COLLABORATION Contents 5 Executive Summary 6 Setting the scene – introduction 8 Driving forces, strengths and weaknesses 18 Business opportunities – from a testbed viewpoint 21 Concluding remarks and recommendations 23 Method and approach 24 Verticals and current testbed status The Nordic and Baltic countries feature a vast range of testbeds and other test activities ”for 5G 4 Executive Summary The Nordic region should be the “first and most integrated 5G region in the world”, and the region should become a “common Nordic 5G space”. Those goals were stated in a Letter of Intent (LoI) signed in April 2018 by the prime ministers of the Nordic countries. This letter followed the Nordic-Baltic ministerial declaration Digital North, adopted a year earlier. The ministerial declarations acknowledge the disruptive power of 5G, and the fact that 5G is more than a new generation of mobile technology. Unlike previous shifts from 2G to 3G and from 3G to 4G, the major impact of 5G will be found in almost all sectors of society, from industry, harbours, airports and energy companies to media, farms, fisheries, hospitals and entire cities. Analysts agree that each such vertical holds a business potential in the billions of euros.1 Testbeds are widely recognised as instrumental in this development, for developing new products, services and not least business models. Hence the interest from the Nordic Council of Ministers in mapping the 5G test activities, measuring the temperature of 5G activities and creating regional 5G SWOT analyses, and subsequently commissioning RISE to do so with this report. The Nordic and Baltic countries feature a vast range of testbeds and other test activities for 5G. This report lists almost 50 such testbeds,2 serving a range of purposes from network research to application in agriculture and aquaculture. Numbers indicate, though, that the strongest impact will be made within the manufacturing industry and transport. This is also where the first business cases based on the new 5G functionalities can be found – using 5G for the continuous digitalisation of industrial production and digitalisation of transport issues. Manufacturing industries probably hold the key for Nordic-Baltic 5G leadership. However, there’s also a potential for strong global impact within agriculture, given the proper incentives for collaboration among the stakeholders in the region. 1 See for instance “The 5G Business Potential”, Ericsson, 2019. 2 The appendix is available on request from the Ministerial Council for Digitalisation 5 Setting the scene – introduction 1 The spring of 2019 marked the start of commercially available 5G services. In South Korea, the USA and several other countries, the first commercial 5G networks have already been rolled out, with some 10 million 5G subscribers ex- pected by the end of the year. The Nordic and Baltic region will, along with other countries in Europe, debut commercial 5G during 2019–2020, with subsequent rollouts over the coming years. 5G will not only offer faster and more secure broadband connections, it will also feature radically shorter response times (latency), the ability to handle a hitherto unseen multitude of nodes, and private networks (network slicing), while also significantly lowering the cost and energy needed per communicated byte. The 5G enthusiasts emphasise the huge business opportunities. Globally, pro- jections point towards almost 2 billion 5G subscribers within 5 years, account- ing for 20% of all mobile subscriptions (source: Ericsson Mobility Report, June 2019). By 2026, analysts foresee a 1.2 trillion dollar market for 5G-enabled digitalisation products and services, as categorised in figure 1. The testbeds serve an important role in harnessing these business opportuni- ties. Testbeds are instrumental for learning not only the technology but also the operational, organisational and business aspects of the new opportunities. Testbeds can be public, offering services for anyone interested, but can also be closed, serving the needs of e.g. a factory, a port, or a hospital. They can be for research only or have commercial interests. Some of the testbeds in this survey are also driven by other forces, some more esoteric examples being observing the impacts of global warming or assisting athletes in their ambition to win Olympic medals. What all the testbeds have in common, though, is their ambition to as quickly as possible learn what opportunities 5G will bring to their particular field of interest and how to make the most out of these opportunities. In many cases – particularly where corporations are driving the testbeds – this also includes how to make money from these insights. Early-use cases where 5G contrib- utes to industrial digitalisation might be more about saving money, but there are examples of more forward-leaning companies developing new offerings using 5G. One example is the traffic safety testbed AstaZero in Sweden, whose customers – the big automotive manufacturers – simply demand 5G access for their trials. The test activities have until now been hampered by low terminal availability. This situation should be rectified during the summer of 2019, as the telecom industry rolls out new terminals for 5G with a range of different capacities. The ramp-up of terminal production is expected to be quite steep, ensuring that the testbeds – and indeed the public at large – can dig into the brave new 5G world. 6 Figure 1: 5G-enabled digitalisation products and services 2026, a 1.2 trillion dollar market. Source: The 5G Business Potential, Ericsson, 2019. 6% 1% Financial 20% services 8% Energy Automative utilities 10% Public transport 19% 10% Manufacturing Media & industry entertainment 13% Health care 13% Public safety 7 Driving forces, strengths and 2 weaknesses The 5G movement is quite complex, with many different driving forces. Geo- graphically, it’s fair to say that Finland is a bit ahead of the other Nordic and Baltic countries, with Sweden coming in second. Norway and Denmark are accelerating. The 5G activities seem to be local or national, with very limited transnational visibility. Corporations use their testbeds mainly for learning and digitalisation purposes. Cities use them for projects aimed at ameliorating life for inhabit- ants and local business. Universities use testbeds for research, obviously, but also for profiling. If the testbeds are aspiring for commercial viability – i.e. to make money by themselves – it’s definitely too early to judge their success. Nor have they excelled in finding new business opportunities. As shown in the regional SWOT analysis to the right, the Nordic-Baltic region features many strong 5G points. The large number of testbeds indicate great interest from many stakeholders, particularly within the transport and man- ufacturing industries. However, the test activities suffer from a lack of termi- nals. The few 5G terminals that have been available are mostly prototypes, and not all of them are in the common mobile phone form. This situation will change soon as several phone vendors, e.g. Huawei, LG and Samsung, have started or announced the imminent start of regular 5G phone sales. The goal of a “common Nordic 5G space” as stated in the LoI signed by the Nordic prime ministers seems still to be quite distant. There’s very little co-or- dination of activities between spectrum authorities – one example is the lack of transnational spectrum allocation. Governments seem to regard spectrum as a natural resource of national importance. Pan-Nordic spectrum allocation could potentially not only create an unprecedented scale of communication opportunities, it would also encourage and enable cross-border business and collaboration projects. Another challenge for cross-border activities is the lack of dedicated funding targeted towards Nordic-Baltic 5G projects. The test activities in the region are today mainly funded by national sources or by European research projects such as Horizon 2020 and thus there is a lack of incentive for Nordic or Nor- dic-Baltic collaboration. 5G tests, like most business activities, tend to follow the money, so if policymakers would like to see more Nordic-Baltic collabora- tion, they should also create a funding scheme for such activities. Agriculture could be low-hanging fruit for Nordic-Baltic 5G collaboration. Sweden has a testbed, currently with 4G but with plans for 5G, for agricultural purposes. Denmark has a strong agriculture industry but currently no testbed for this vertical. Finland has taken some 5G initiatives within the forest indus- try, and in Norway there’s an ambitious aquaculture testbed with plans for 5G experiments. A well-funded project where these activities could combine forces and learn from each other could form the basis for a 5G knowledge resource for the entire region. Stakeholders such as Lantmännen – a co-oper- 8 ative owned by 25,000 Swedish farmers – could seize the opportunity to act as intermediary in this vertical, defining, designing and developing appropriate services. The large Swedish and Finnish forestry companies would probably welcome such an initiative, as would the large Danish farms and agriculture companies and the Norwegian fish farmers. It should be noted that most of the testbeds in this survey are run with sup- port and equipment from Ericsson or Nokia, with Huawei also showing