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BCA Vista Indonesia Morning Digest 11 MAY 2016

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BCA Vista Indonesia Morning Digest 11 MAY 2016 BCA Vista Indonesia Morning Digest 11 MAY 2016 Vol TODAY'S HEADLINES INDICES Last Chg (%) YTD (%) (US$ m) ASEAN Economy Indonesia (IDX) 4,763.12 0.29 3.70 327.71 Forex reserves stood at USD107.7bn in Apr-16. (Jakarta Post) Malaysia (KLCI) 1,635.84 0.22 (3.38) 292.22 Philippines (PCOMP) 7,174.88 2.62 3.20 151.51 Industry/Corporate Singapore (STI) 2,741.15 (0.90) (5.00) 479.49 Retail car sales dropped by 8.4% MoM in Apr-16. (Bisnis Indonesia) Thailand (SET) 1,390.13 (0.29) 7.93 1,109.44 2W sales dropped by 15.1% MoM in Apr-16. (Bisnis Indonesia) REGIONAL & USA Subsidized loan rates to be reduced to 7% in 2017. (Investor Daily) China (SHCOMP) 2,832.59 0.02 (20.72) 19,705.88 The completion of Jabodetabek LRT Project may get delayed to 2019. Hongkong (Hang Seng) 20,242.68 0.43 (7.49) 2,261.28 (Investor Daily) India (SENSEX) 25,772.53 0.33 (0.72) 60.69 Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ) wins toll road projects worth of IDR24.7tn. (Investor Japan (Nikkei) 16,565.19 2.15 (12.97) 13,435.83 Daily) Korea (KOSPI) 1,982.50 0.75 1.08 4,068.00 Taiwan (TWSE) 8,156.29 0.30 (1.49) 1,873.18 USA (Dow Jones) 17,928.35 1.26 1.84 5,044.75 Source: Bloomberg Please see the overleaf for news details CURRENCIES & RATES Last -1 Week -1 Month EoP 2015 IDR/USD 13,286 13,188 13,144 13,788 IDR/USD (1-month NDF) 13,385 13,290 13,175 13,918 BI Rate 6.75 6.75 6.75 7.50 JIBOR (ON / 1 yr) 4.94 / 7.81 4.92 / 7.81 4.89 / 7.86 8.26 / 9.07 FASBI ON / SBI 9 mth 4.75 / 6.60 4.75 / 6.60 4.75 / 6.60 5.50 / 7.10 Term Deposit ( 1 mth / 6 mth) 4.70 / 4.85 4.70 / 4.85 4.70 / 4.85 4.70 / 4.85 Base Lending Avg (IDR / USD) 13.88 / 5.23 13.85 / 5.23 14.59 / 5.23 14.52 / 5.05 CDS - 5 year (bps) 186.84 188.99 206.58 229.56 Yield 10 Yr 7.80 7.69 7.57 8.76 Source: Bloomberg COMMODITIES Last Chg (%) MoM (%) YTD (%) Coal (USD/ton) 50.20 - 0.70 (1.38) Cocoa (USD/mt) 3,101.00 0.71 7.15 (3.70) Corn (USD/mt) 381.00 3.25 4.38 2.56 Brent Crude oil (USD/b) 45.52 4.33 8.33 13.12 Gold (USD/toz) 1,265.84 0.16 2.03 19.26 Nickel (USD/mt) 8,710.00 1.22 1.93 0.11 Palm oil (MYR/mt) 2,661.00 (0.04) (0.71) 6.65 Pulp (USD/t) 795.85 0.75 0.78 (0.93) Sugar (USD/lb) 16.02 0.88 7.66 10.64 Tin (USD/mt) 17,160.00 (0.26) 1.84 17.13 Wheat (USD/bsh) 461.25 1.04 (1.18) (4.60) Source: Bloomberg ETF & ADR Last Chg (%) MoM (%) YTD (%) EIDO US (USD) 22.63 1.98 (3.29) 7.76 TLK US (USD) 55.62 2.24 6.76 25.02 Source: Bloomberg IDX - TOP MOVERS AND LAGGARDS Last Chg (%) INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD - GENERIC (IDR m) MOVERS Yield 2Y Yield 5Y Yield 10Y % TLKM TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA 3,700 2.49 374,313.7 10.0 GGRM GUDANG GARAM 71,050 4.83 117,652 9.5 ASII ASTRA INTERNATIONAL 6,525 1.95 301,845 9.0 BMRI BANK MANDIRI 9,450 1.61 225,955 8.5 INDF INDOFOOD SUKSES MAKMUR 7,150 2.88 54,507 LAGGARDS 8.0 UNVR UNILEVER INDONESIA 43,925 (1.29) 56,961 7.5 SCMA SURYA CITRA MEDIA 3,120 (3.70) 16,928 7.0 CPIN CHAROEN POKPHAND INDONESIA 3,420 (2.56) 16,757 6.5 PGAS PERUSAHAAN GAS NEGARA 2,300 (1.71) 140,730 1-Sep 14-Sep 27-Sep 10-Oct 23-Oct 5-Nov 18-Nov ADRO ADARO ENERGY 665 (4.32) 27,352 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Page 1 of 4 BCA Vista Indonesia Morning Digest 11 MAY 2016 TODAY'S NEWS Economy Forex reserves stood at USD107.7bn in Apr-16 Forex reserves stood at USD107.7bn in Apr-16, relatively flat from USD107.5bn in mar-15. The figure is adequate to fund 8.1 months of imports or 7.8 months of imports and repayment of government foreign debt. (Jakarta Post). Industry/Corporate Retail car sales dropped by 8.4% MoM in Apr-16 Retail car sales in Apr-16 dropped by 8.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY to 84,625 units from 92,435 and 87,094 units in Mar-16 and Apr-15 respectively. The decline was rather unexpected given that there was an auto show in early Apr-16. (Bisnis Indonesia). 2W sales dropped by 15.1% MoM in Apr-16 2W sales stood at 478k units in Apr-16, a decline of 15.1% MoM and 8.9% YoY. For the 4M16 period, 2W sales dropped 6.9% YoY to 1,983k units. Honda maintained a leading market share at 72.9% in Apr-16 vs. 78.1% in Mar-16. For the 4M16 period, Honda market share stood at 72.6%, relatively flat from 72.5% in 1Q16, but up from 68.8% in 4M15. Overall, the 2W sales was below our expectation given that we are expecting a 5% YoY growth in 2016. (Bisnis Indonesia). Subsidized loan rates to be reduced to 7% in 2017 The government plans to reduce subsidized loan rates from 9% to 7% p.a. and will increase allocation subsidized loan rates from IDR10.5tn to IDR15tn. This year, the government has increased subsidized loan targets to IDR120tn. (Investor Daily). The completion of Jabodetabek LRT Project may get delayed to 2019 Ministry of Transportation (MoT) expects that Jabodetabek LRT project will only operate in 2019. The schedule is a delay from the initial target of 2018. According to MoT there are several aspects which is still being negotiated between local government (DKI Jakarta) and MoT. (Investor Daily). Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ) wins toll road projects worth of IDR24.7tn JSMR recently obtained three sections of toll road projects, which are Balikpapan-Samarinda, Manado-Bitung and Pandaan-Malang. Total cumulative length of the toll road is 175.6km with investment value of IDR24.7tn. JSMR currently holds government license to operate 1,047km toll road, while total toll road in operation reaches 593km. (Investor Daily) Page 2 of 4 BCA Vista Indonesia Morning Digest 11 MAY 2016 STOCK'S VALUATION P/E EV/EBITDA EPS Growth TP (IDR) P/E EV/EBITDA EPS Growth TP (IDR) 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 Cons 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 Cons RETAIL CONSUMER ACES 24.6 21.8 17.3 15.4 4.9 12.9 929 AISA 11.7 9.0 7.3 6.2 (5.4) 30.7 1,418 AMRT 39.1 30.0 10.2 8.8 36.8 30.4 678 ASII 15.1 13.4 12.5 11.4 21.3 13.0 7,116 LPPF 25.5 21.8 18.5 16.1 21.8 16.9 19,924 GGRM 19.7 17.3 11.8 10.6 7.8 14.7 76,694 MAPI 31.7 17.7 8.0 6.8 470.4 78.8 5,066 ICBP 25.0 22.7 16.0 14.4 19.5 10.3 16,655 MPPA 26.7 20.7 9.7 7.5 36.6 48.5 2,147 INDF 16.2 14.2 9.0 8.1 31.0 13.8 8,371 RALS 13.9 12.8 6.4 5.8 3.1 8.8 802 KLBF 28.1 24.6 18.3 16.0 9.5 14.1 1,479 Simple Avg 26.9 20.8 11.7 10.1 95.6 32.7 ROTI 26.3 21.6 14.1 12.0 2.7 21.6 1,462 UNVR 52.3 46.8 37.0 33.1 9.5 11.8 40,349 CEMENT SIDO 16.3 14.5 10.3 9.0 6.1 12.7 600 INTP 14.8 13.8 9.0 8.2 #N/A N/A 7.3 19,848 Simple Avg 23.4 20.4 15.1 13.4 11.3 15.9 SMCB 28.9 20.4 7.9 7.1 59.4 41.4 1,031 SMGR 11.7 10.3 7.2 6.6 5.3 13.8 11,687 MINING Simple Avg 18.5 14.9 8.0 7.3 32.4 20.8 ADRO 12.5 12.5 5.4 5.5 (16.1) - 716 ANTM #N/A N/A #N/A N/A 17.2 16.2 94.9 (94.2) 359 TELECOMMUNICATION INCO 39.4 23.7 5.3 5.1 (40.0) 66.7 1,555 EXCL 41.0 19.9 5.0 4.5 2,858.6 105.5 4,652 ITMG 10.6 13.9 2.8 3.4 (8.3) (23.6) 5,696 ISAT 32.0 18.2 4.7 4.4 202.5 75.5 7,226 PTBA 8.7 8.3 5.9 5.4 (18.0) 4.6 7,243 TBIG 22.8 18.6 14.7 13.3 (10.5) 22.2 6,542 TINS 26.9 22.9 10.7 8.7 85.6 17.4 470 TLKM 20.3 18.0 6.9 6.2 15.3 13.2 3,860 Simple Avg 19.6 16.3 7.9 7.4 16.3 (4.9) TOWR 20.3 16.6 11.2 9.9 (31.7) 22.1 4,750 Simple Avg 23.8 17.9 9.4 8.4 43.9 33.3 CONSTRUCTION ADHI 15.3 11.5 7.1 5.4 (16.3) 32.7 3,299 MEDIA PTPP 18.5 14.7 8.6 7.0 25.7 26.2 4,643 MNCN 16.9 14.4 11.2 9.7 54.9 16.8 2,419 WIKA 19.6 14.8 9.1 7.0 22.8 32.0 3,028 SCMA 27.3 24.1 19.3 17.1 9.7 13.4 3,343 WSKT 24.0 19.1 15.8 12.1 12.4 25.7 2,471 Simple Avg 22.1 19.3 15.2 13.4 32.3 15.1 WTON 27.1 20.4 15.2 11.6 69.2 32.6 1,040 ACST 14.6 10.1 8.5 6.2 192.0 43.8 4,517 POULTRY TOTL 10.2 8.9 5.3 4.4 15.6 15.1 893 CPIN 20.5 17.0 13.2 11.4 49.1 20.7 3,590 Simple Avg 18.5 14.2 10.0 7.7 45.9 29.7 JPFA 13.5 10.7 6.8 6.1 58.7 26.0 1,068 MAIN 16.2 11.5 8.4 6.8 355.0 40.9 1,641 PROPERTY Simple Avg 16.7 13.0 9.5 8.1 154.3 29.2 ASRI 7.5 7.5 8.0 7.7 62.0 (0.0) 397 BSDE 12.8 11.6 11.1 9.9 19.7 10.2 2,162 PLANTATION CTRA 13.0 11.4 8.9 8.2 9.9 14.4 1,508 AALI 13.6 11.6 8.6 7.5 177.8 17.8 18,930 KIJA 6.9 5.3 6.8 5.9 122.0 29.8 350 BWPT 34.7 17.6 10.1 8.0 224.2 97.2 275 SMRA 17.0 14.7 12.2 10.8 35.7 16.1 1,753 DSNG 13.5 10.4 9.1 7.5 47.2 29.6 610 SSIA 7.9 7.0 3.8 3.4 18.6 13.2 812 LSIP 13.6 11.8 7.0 6.2 18.0 15.3 1,749 Simple Avg 10.9 9.6 8.5 7.7 44.7 14.0 Simple Avg 18.9 12.9 8.7 7.3 116.8 40.0 HEALTHCARE P/E P/B EPS Growth TP (IDR) MIKA 54.3 48.2 39.1 32.9 17.1 12.6 2,702 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 Cons SILO 99.7 68.4 14.7 11.6 41.7 45.7 10,750 Simple Avg 77.0 58.3 26.9 22.2 29.4 29.2 BANKING BBCA 16.6 14.9 3.1 2.6 8.5 11.7 14,388 OTHER BBNI 7.9 6.6 1.1 0.9 18.6 19.8 5,775 AKRA 21.3 18.3 14.9 12.8 15.4 16.3 7,446 BBRI 9.5 8.4 1.8 1.6 2.4 13.8 12,063 ARNA 22.1 15.8 12.3 9.3 173.1 39.7 730 BBTN 8.5 7.3 1.2 1.0 21.9 17.5 1,916 BIRD 11.5 9.8 6.7 6.0 19.4 18.0 5,833 BDMN 8.6 7.2 0.8 0.7 34.4 19.7 3,417 JSMR 21.8 20.5 11.3 10.1 12.4 6.1 6,319 BJBR 6.0 5.3 1.0 0.9 9.9 13.9 1,113 PGAS 9.6 8.7 6.6 6.1 (10.0) 11.1 3,110 BJTM 6.7 5.9 1.0 0.9 14.7 13.2 512 TELE 10.3 8.5 7.5 6.5 26.7 21.6 1,105 BMRI 10.4 8.9 1.6 1.4 4.5 17.1 10,609 UNTR 9.5 9.1 3.3 3.3 37.6 4.7 15,333 Simple Avg 9.3 8.0 1.5 1.3 14.3 15.9 Simple Avg 15.2 12.9 8.9 7.7 39.2 16.8 Source: Bloomberg Page 3 of 4 BCA Vista Indonesia Morning Digest 11 MAY 2016 DISCLAIMER By receiving this research report ("Report"), you confirm that: (i) you have previously requested PT BCA Sekuritas to deliver this Report to you and you are legally entitled to receive the Report in accordance with Indonesian prevailing laws and regulations, and (ii) you have fully read, understood and agreed to be bound by and comply with the terms of this Report as set out below.
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