Asiamoney'sAsiamoney’s 2014 20132013 Finance Asia's BestBestDomestic Domestic Best Corporate flash EquityEquity House House Equity House 3 December 2014 Surya Citra Media REDUCE Sector: Media (Underweight) (Unchanged) Rating momentum*: Wendy Chandra Price: IDR3,435 - TP: IDR2,360 (From IDR2,550) E-mail:
[email protected] TP/consensus: 68.8% Phone: +6221 250 5081 ext. 3606 TP momentum*: JCI:5,176 Dimming the lights Exhibit 1. Company information Market cap (IDRt/USDb) : 50.2/4.1 . Severe revisions likely to come from the street: Consensus remains 3M avg.daily t.o.(IDRb/USDm) : 3.57/2.9 too bullish on SCMA’s outlook (exhibit 5), in our view, despite the recent Bloomberg code : SCMA IJ disappointing 3Q14 earnings caused by weak top-line growth (+4% y-y; Exhibit 2. Shareholders information -21% q-q). Following its weak performance, SCMA management recently PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi : 66.68 (%) lowered the company’s 2014 top-line growth expectations, from 15% y-y Free float : 33.32 Source: Company initially to just 8% at present. Also, guidance for SCMA’s 2015 revenue Exhibit 3. Key forecasts and valuations growth has also been further cut to just 11% y-y. Given consensus Year to 31 Dec 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F estimates of nearly 14% y-y top line growth in 2014 and 17% in 2015, Revenue (IDRbn) 3,695 3,973 4,339 4,899 we expect the consensus to see severe downward earnings revisions. EBIT (IDRbn) 1,759 1,832 1,987 2,264 Net profit (IDRbn) 1,280 1,367 1,536 1,766 .