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Surya Citra Media REDUCE Sector: Media (Underweight) (Unchanged) Rating Momentum*

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Surya Citra Media REDUCE Sector: Media (Underweight) (Unchanged) Rating Momentum* Asiamoney'sAsiamoney’s 2014 20132013 Finance Asia's BestBestDomestic Domestic Best Corporate flash EquityEquity House House Equity House 3 December 2014 Surya Citra Media REDUCE Sector: Media (Underweight) (Unchanged) Rating momentum*: Wendy Chandra Price: IDR3,435 - TP: IDR2,360 (From IDR2,550) E-mail: [email protected] TP/consensus: 68.8% Phone: +6221 250 5081 ext. 3606 TP momentum*: JCI:5,176 Dimming the lights Exhibit 1. Company information Market cap (IDRt/USDb) : 50.2/4.1 . Severe revisions likely to come from the street: Consensus remains 3M avg.daily t.o.(IDRb/USDm) : 3.57/2.9 too bullish on SCMA’s outlook (exhibit 5), in our view, despite the recent Bloomberg code : SCMA IJ disappointing 3Q14 earnings caused by weak top-line growth (+4% y-y; Exhibit 2. Shareholders information -21% q-q). Following its weak performance, SCMA management recently PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi : 66.68 (%) lowered the company’s 2014 top-line growth expectations, from 15% y-y Free float : 33.32 Source: Company initially to just 8% at present. Also, guidance for SCMA’s 2015 revenue Exhibit 3. Key forecasts and valuations growth has also been further cut to just 11% y-y. Given consensus Year to 31 Dec 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F estimates of nearly 14% y-y top line growth in 2014 and 17% in 2015, Revenue (IDRbn) 3,695 3,973 4,339 4,899 we expect the consensus to see severe downward earnings revisions. EBIT (IDRbn) 1,759 1,832 1,987 2,264 Net profit (IDRbn) 1,280 1,367 1,536 1,766 . Further earnings downgrades on unfavorable macro outlook: At Bahana/cns. (%) - 79 84 78 this stage of the market cycle, we expect SCMA to book 4Q14 revenue of EPS (IDR) 88 94 105 121 IDR880bn, a decline of 7% q-q and 10% y-y on declining ad spend from EPS growth (%) 9.4 6.9 12.3 15.0 FMCG companies on alternative ad campaigns and coupled with a weak EPS momentum - EV/EBITDA (x) 26.7 25.3 23.1 20.0 macro environment. Hence, we are further lowering our earnings P/E (x) 39.2 36.7 32.7 28.4 forecasts on SCMA by 7-9% in 2014-16 (exhibit 6). FCFPS (IDR) 75 85 101 110 . Cheaper and more effective advertising alternatives: The current FCF yield (%) 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.2 BVPS (IDR) 191 232 281 339 rate-card cost during prime time is approximately USD4,900, cheaper P/BV (x) 18.0 14.8 12.2 10.1 than that in Thailand (USD10,000) and the Philippines (USD15,300). DPS (IDR) 63 53 56 63 However, as cheaper advertising alternatives are emerging, companies Div. yield (%) 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.8 prefer to advertise through promotions in supermarkets/hypermarkets, ROAA (%) 32.6 31.8 30.6 29.8 direct marketing activities such as festivals, product knowledge through ROAE (%) 47.6 45.0 41.6 39.5 EBIT mgn (%) 47.6 46.1 45.8 46.2 social media and various prizes for product purchases (exhibits 8-12). Net gearing (%) nc nc nc nc This is particularly true, in our view, for existing products, which do not Source: Company, Bahana estimates Note: Pricing as of close on 2 December 2014 require nation-wide campaigns and are cheaper as well as more effective. Exhibit 4. Relative share price performance Outlook: Weak catalysts ahead for ad-revenue growth (%) (%) 15 15 The main catalyst for media’s ad-revenue growth is new product launches 9.5 10 10 from various companies. On the back of our expected slower 2015F GDP 5.8 5 5 1.8 2.7 growth of just 5.0%, we believe companies will strive to reduce their costs, 0 0 (0.3) particularly on ad spending to support their bottom lines. Additionally, tight (5) (5) competition in media should limit SCMA’s ability to increase its rate card (10) (10) (15) (15) next year. Hence, for 2015 we forecast the company’s top-line growth to (16.5) (20) (20) only reach 9.2% y-y with operating margins dropping to 45.8%. ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M SCMA IJ relative to JCI Recommendation: Non-consensus REDUCE with lower IDR2,360 TP Source: Bloomberg We see SCMA’s 2015 PE of 32.7x as expensive and unjustified, given weaker Exhibit 5. Revenue growth comparison, y-y (%) 18.0 ad-revenue growth ahead. After cuts to our earnings, we lower our 12-month 16.7 TP to IDR2,360 (from IDR2,550), based on an unchanged 22.5x 2015F PER, at 16.0 13.6 par with the regional peers (exhibit 7). With an unfavorable macro outlook, 14.0 12.0 11.0 we forecast SCMA’s ad-revenue growth to remain unexciting at 9.2% y-y in C C 10.0 o o 9.2 2015, although slightly higher than MNCN’s 7.8% y-y growth (on weaker n 8.0 n 8.0 s 7.5 s e e S B audience share). We note the all-time audience share of SCMA’s 2 channels, C a 6.0 n B n M h s S a s st rd A a SCTV (currently in 1 place) and Indosiar (3 place), is up from 2013 levels u C h u 4.0 n s M a s nd th A a (SCTV: 2 , Indosiar: 6 ). In our 2015 Compendium, we flagged SCMA as 2.0 n a one of 5 stocks to avoid in 2015. Risks would be significantly higher foreign - 2014F 2015F investment in the FMCG sector and better-than-expected GDP growth. Soruce: Bloomberg, Company, Bahana; note SCMA is guidance Disclosure: Bahana Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see the important disclaimer information on the back of this report *Based on consensus’ recent changes ↑ (up), ↓ (down), ↔ (unchanged) Asiamoney's 2014 2013 Finance Asia's Best Domestic Best 3 December 2014 Equity House Equity House Surya Citra Media Year to 31 December 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F PROFIT & LOSS (IDRb) Sales 3,277 3,695 3,973 4,339 4,899 We cut our top line forecasts by Gross profit 2,251 2,410 2,462 2,679 3,075 5-11% over 2014-16F EBITDA 1,721 1,846 1,924 2,084 2,366 Depreciation 80 87 92 97 103 EBIT 1,642 1,759 1,832 1,987 2,264 Net interest inc./(expense) (34) 5 10 82 116 Forex gain/(losses) - - - - - Other income/(expense) - - - - - Pre-tax profit 1,608 1,764 1,842 2,070 2,379 Taxes (391) (448) (468) (526) (604) Minority interest - (6) (7) (7) (8) Extraordinary gain/(losses) (47) (30) - - - Net profit 1,170 1,280 1,367 1,536 1,766 BALANCE SHEET (IDRb) Cash and equivalents 1,066 1,043 1,511 2,175 2,876 S-T investments - - - - - Trade receivables 1,020 1,015 1,090 1,191 1,344 Inventories 267 375 377 415 456 Fixed assets 710 725 745 772 805 Other assets 774 853 880 899 920 Total assets 3,837 4,010 4,603 5,451 6,400 Interest bearing liabilities 1 51 62 68 74 Maintaining minimum debt Trade payables 997 989 989 1,110 1,198 level Other liabilities 191 180 164 169 178 Total liabilities 1,189 1,221 1,214 1,346 1,451 Minority interest 11 52 52 52 52 Shareholders' equity 2,637 2,738 3,337 4,053 4,898 CASH FLOW (IDRb) EBIT 1,642 1,759 1,832 1,987 2,264 Depreciation 80 87 92 97 103 Working capital (336) (92) (54) (114) (168) Other operating items (462) (541) (513) (369) (452) Operating cash flow 923 1,213 1,357 1,601 1,746 Net capital expenditure (104) (102) (112) (123) (136) Free cash flow 819 1,111 1,245 1,477 1,610 Equity raised/(bought) 47 (218) - - - Net borrowings (997) 51 10 6 7 Other financing 298 (967) (788) (819) (916) Net cash flow 168 (22) 467 664 701 Positive cash flow Cash flow at beginning 898 1,066 1,043 1,511 2,175 Cash flow at end 1,066 1,043 1,511 2,175 2,876 RATIOS ROAE (%) 54.4 47.6 45.0 41.6 39.5 ROAA (%) 32.1 32.6 31.8 30.6 29.8 EBITDA margin (%) 52.5 50.0 48.4 48.0 48.3 Erosion in gross margin due to EBIT margin (%) 50.1 47.6 46.1 45.8 46.2 Net margin (%) 35.7 34.6 34.4 35.4 36.1 lower ad revenue growth and Payout ratio (%) 29.9 78.7 60.0 60.0 60.0 increasing programming cost, Current ratio (x) 3.8 3.6 4.4 4.7 5.2 but rising net margins given Interest coverage (x) 48.4 na (183.9) (24.1) (19.6) interest income on high cash Net gearing (%) nc nc nc nc nc reserves Debts to assets (%) 0.02 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 Debtor turnover (days) 105 99 99 99 99 Creditor turnover (days) 91 54 54 54 54 Inventory turnover (days) 82 91 91 91 91 MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS Revenue growth rate (%) 3.6 12.7 7.5 9.2 12.9 Revenue growth remains at Prog. cost rate growth (%) (22.9) 25.2 17.5 9.9 9.9 unexciting, single-digit levels in Op.
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