The Diffusion of Shrimp HYV and Mangrove Forest Rehabilitation
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High Value Agricultural Commodities in Indonesia WORKING PAPER | October 2013 The Diffusion of Shrimp HYV and Mangrove Forest Rehabilitation Dale Yi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This study was prepared as part of a project entitled “Transforming Markets for High-Value Agricultural Commodities in Indonesia: Promoting Competitiveness and Inclusion.” The project was a collaborative effort, implemented by the InternationalSUMMARY Food | PolicyAPRIL 2010 Research Institute (IFPRI), the University of Adelaide, Michigan State University, the Indonesian Centre for Agriculture, Socio-Economic, and Policy Studies (ICASEPS), the Centre for Agrifood Policy and Agribusiness Studies (CAPAS). ICASEPS is a research institute affiliated with the Ministry of Agriculture and based in Bogor. CAPAS is affiliated with the University of Padjadjaran in Bandung. The study was made possible by funding from the Australian Centre for International Agriculture Research (ACIAR). The project researchers gratefully acknowledge the support and guidance provided by ACIAR project managers Simon Hearn and David Shearer. 2 CONTENTS Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................... 2 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 5 Theoretical Model ................................................................................................SUMMARY............... | APRIL 2010 6 Simple Village Decision Rule ................................................................................................ 6 Household’s Optimization Problem ........................................................................................ 6 Updating Land Endowment with Erosion Loss ...................................................................................................................... 7 Updating Village Mangrove Stock ........................................................................................................................................... 7 Solution to the Household Problem ........................................................................................ 7 Backward Induction Solution ................................................................................................ 8 Data ............................................................................................................................... 8 Provinces Selection .......................................................................................................... 9 Central Java (CJ) ...................................................................................................................................................................... 9 South Sulawesi (SS) ................................................................................................................................................................... 9 District Selection ............................................................................................................. 9 Village Level Census ......................................................................................................... 9 Model Specification and Hypotheses ......................................................................................... 9 Dependent Variable: Village Planted Mangroves ( ) .................................................................. 9 Explanatory Variables ................................................................푌푣푡 ........................................ 9 Prices ( ) .................................................................................................................................................................................. 9 Mangrove푝푣 ( ) ........................................................................................................................................................................ 10 Village Characteristics푀푣 ( ) .................................................................................................................................................. 10 Village HYV Technology 퐻푣Diffusion ( ) ............................................................................................................................... 10 Village Land ( ) ................................푉푣.................................................................................................................................... 11 Estimation Method푇푣 ............................................................................................................. 11 Functional Form & Nonlinearity ........................................................................................... 11 Estimation with Instrumental Variables .................................................................................. 11 Descriptive Results ............................................................................................................. 12 Regression Results ............................................................................................................. 12 HYV Diffusion Equation ..................................................................................................... 12 Mangrove Planting Equation ............................................................................................... 13 Summary and Conclusions..................................................................................................... 13 References ...................................................................................................................... 15 Appendix ........................................................................................................................ 17 About the Authors ................................................................................................................................................................... 21 3 LIST OF TABLES SUMMARY | APRIL 2010 Table 1. Descriptive statistics by mangrove replanting status .......................................................... 18 Table 2. HYV diffusion equation ............................................................................................. 19 Table 3. Covariance parameters ............................................................................................. 19 Table 4. Mangrove labor equation ........................................................................................... 20 Table 5. Marginal probabilities ............................................................................................... 20 4 INTRODUCTION Mangroves are an important natural resource found on tropical coastlines, and they serve as an important protective barrier against the threat of erosion and subsidence into the ocean (Barbier, 2007; Rönnbäck, 1999). However, urbanization and expansion of farms have put pressure on mangrove forests (Barbier & Cox, 2004; Ron & Padilla, 1999; Valiela et al., 2001). This has resulted in the destruc- tion of 86% of the world’s mangrove resources in the last quarter century, leaving many coastal communities inSUMMARY a “world witho| APRILut 2010 mangroves” (Duke et al., 2007), and exposed to the threat of coastal erosion. In light of the poor state of mangrove forests, attention is shifting away from passive conservation efforts towards active replant- ing programs to rehabilitate lost forests. Governments have been keen on rehabilitating mangrove forests to protect valuable land in coastal communities, however centrally planned mangrove planting programs have faced many challenges and were met with limited success (Walters et al., 2008). As a result, attention is now focusing more on how to initiate and support community-based efforts to plant mangroves on vulnerable coastlines. This study examines the rise of community-based mangrove planting initiatives in Indonesia, a country of over 17,000 islands with 54,000km of coastline (CIA, 2013) that has vested interest in preventing coastal erosion. Recently, Indonesian villages have been observed replanting coastal mangrove forests on coastlines (Babo & Froehlich, 1998), however, the factors that are driving these villages to rehabilitate mangroves have not yet been identified. The main objective of this study is to identify the factors that are motivating coastal villages in Indonesia to replant mangroves forests, and what factors may be preventing other villages from doing the same. In essence, the planting of mangrove forests is a type of investment into soil conservation. It is similar in concept to the use of bunds, terraces, and conservation tillage practices, the adoption of which has been studied at the household level (Knowler & Bradshaw, 2007). Unlike the common soil conservation measures studied in the literature, mangrove forests are more of a common- pool resource in that: (1) they provide benefits to all members of the coastal community in the form of erosion and subsidence mitigation; (2) it is difficult to exclude specific community members from mangrove benefits, and; (3) the magnitude of benefits that the community accrues depends on the participation of individual community members in replanting mangroves in the community. This study adds to the literature on soil-conservation by modeling the replanting of mangroves, a common-pool soil resource, at the village community level. We focus our analysis on the effect of two important factors on the rehabilitation of mangrove