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E N Te Rta in M E N T: S O Ftw a Re Equity Research L O S ANGELES | S A N FRANCISCO | NEW Y O R K | B O S T O N | SEATTLE | MINNEAPOLIS | M I L W A U K E E Entertainment: Software February 11, 2014 Michael Pachter Nick McKay Nick Citrin (213) 688-4474 (213) 688-4343 (213) 688-4495 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc; Why the Next Generation Will Be as Big as Ever Wedbush Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors Entertainment: Software should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see page 172 of this report for analyst certification and important disclosure information . ACKNOWLEDGEMENT We thank our good friend, Junkwaffle, for the fabulous cover art and for demonstrating that there are many misperceptions about the past and the likelihood the past will repeat itself. We also thank the many viewers of Pach-Attack! at GameTrailers.com and our many Twitter followers for giving us many of the ideas discussed in this report. It is important to acknowledge the contribution from media sites Edge-Online, The Verge, Kotaku.com, Giant Bomb, VentureBeat.com, gamesindustry.biz, eurogamer.net and gamasutra.com for keeping us on our toes and always asking us to think about the industry in real time. Finally, we feel we must give a shout out to NeoGAF.com and its members, for challenging virtually everything we say as being wrong, and for making us re-think many positions over the years. Entertainment: Software | 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENT.............................................................................................................................................................................1 TABLE OF CONTENTS .............................................................................................................................................................................2 LIST OF FIGURES.....................................................................................................................................................................................5 OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................................................................................6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................................................................................................................8 INDUSTRY FORECAST...........................................................................................................................................................................11 Hardware Forecast ...............................................................................................................................................................................11 Software Forecast.................................................................................................................................................................................12 Investing in Software Publishers...........................................................................................................................................................13 SECTION 1: INDUSTRY OVERVIEW AND FORECAST........................................................................................................................15 DEFINING THE INDUSTRY.....................................................................................................................................................................16 Distributors............................................................................................................................................................................................17 Retailers................................................................................................................................................................................................18 INDUSTRY SIZE: THE ADDRESSABLE MARKET OPPORTUNITY.......................................................................................................20 Geographic Markets..............................................................................................................................................................................20 Hardware and Software Sales Split ......................................................................................................................................................22 Software Versus Other Entertainment Sectors .....................................................................................................................................22 WHAT CAUSED THE DECLINE FROM PEAK 2008 LEVELS?...............................................................................................................24 The Rise of Mobile and Tablet Games..................................................................................................................................................24 The Rise of Free-to-Play PC Games ....................................................................................................................................................25 The Dramatic Growth of Online Multiplayer ..........................................................................................................................................26 Console Fatigue and Fads....................................................................................................................................................................28 The Economy........................................................................................................................................................................................29 Conclusion............................................................................................................................................................................................29 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS.......................................................................................................................................................................30 Widening Age Demographic .................................................................................................................................................................30 Rapid Teen Growth...............................................................................................................................................................................31 Female Market......................................................................................................................................................................................31 Increasing Youth Income ......................................................................................................................................................................32 HARDWARE PLATFORMS......................................................................................................................................................................33 Home Consoles ....................................................................................................................................................................................34 Console Cycles.....................................................................................................................................................................................35 Prior Console Transition .......................................................................................................................................................................40 128-Bit Consoles ..................................................................................................................................................................................40 Sony PlayStation 2 ...............................................................................................................................................................................43 Nintendo GameCube ............................................................................................................................................................................44 Microsoft Xbox ......................................................................................................................................................................................45 Xbox 360...............................................................................................................................................................................................46 PS3.......................................................................................................................................................................................................47 Wii.........................................................................................................................................................................................................50 Wii U .....................................................................................................................................................................................................51 PS4.......................................................................................................................................................................................................52
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