Basic Spotters' Field Guide
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Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Ivan
Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Ivan 2-24 September 2004 Stacy R. Stewart National Hurricane Center 16 December 2004 Updated 27 May 2005 to revise damage estimate Updated 11 August 2011 to revise damage estimate Ivan was a classical, long-lived Cape Verde hurricane that reached Category 5 strength three times on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHS). It was also the strongest hurricane on record that far south east of the Lesser Antilles. Ivan caused considerable damage and loss of life as it passed through the Caribbean Sea. a. Synoptic History Ivan developed from a large tropical wave that moved off the west coast of Africa on 31 August. Although the wave was accompanied by a surface pressure system and an impressive upper-level outflow pattern, associated convection was limited and not well organized. However, by early on 1 September, convective banding began to develop around the low-level center and Dvorak satellite classifications were initiated later that day. Favorable upper-level outflow and low shear environment was conducive for the formation of vigorous deep convection to develop and persist near the center, and it is estimated that a tropical depression formed around 1800 UTC 2 September. Figure 1 depicts the “best track” of the tropical cyclone’s path. The wind and pressure histories are shown in Figs. 2a and 3a, respectively. Table 1 is a listing of the best track positions and intensities. Despite a relatively low latitude (9.7o N), development continued and it is estimated that the cyclone became Tropical Storm Ivan just 12 h later at 0600 UTC 3 September. -
Skywarn Storm Spotter Guide
Skywarn Storm Spotter Guide ...For Western Nevada and Eastern California... National Weather Service Reno, Nevada CONTENTS Introduction........................................................................................................... 3 A Note to Amateur Radio Operators..................................................................... 4 Who to Call........................................................................................................... 5 NWS Reno County Warning Area Map ................................................................ 6 What to Report -Tornadoes / Severe Thunderstorms ......................................................... 7 -Heavy Rain/Flooding ................................................................................ 8 -Winter Storms......................................................................................... 10 -Fog/Other ............................................................................................... 11 Estimating Precipitation Intensity........................................................................ 12 Beaufort Wind Scale........................................................................................... 13 Handy Dandy Hail Size Estimator....................................................................... 14 After the Storm ................................................................................................... 15 Watch/Warning/Advisory Criteria........................................................................ 16 Sources -
Squall Lines: Meteorology, Skywarn Spotting, & a Brief Look at the 18
Squall Lines: Meteorology, Skywarn Spotting, & A Brief Look At The 18 June 2010 Derecho Gino Izzi National Weather Service, Chicago IL Outline • Meteorology 301: Squall lines – Brief review of thunderstorm basics – Squall lines – Squall line tornadoes – Mesovorticies • Storm spotting for squall lines • Brief Case Study of 18 June 2010 Event Thunderstorm Ingredients • Moisture – Gulf of Mexico most common source locally Thunderstorm Ingredients • Lifting Mechanism(s) – Fronts – Jet Streams – “other” boundaries – topography Thunderstorm Ingredients • Instability – Measure of potential for air to accelerate upward – CAPE: common variable used to quantify magnitude of instability < 1000: weak 1000-2000: moderate 2000-4000: strong 4000+: extreme Thunderstorms Thunderstorms • Moisture + Instability + Lift = Thunderstorms • What kind of thunderstorms? – Single Cell – Multicell/Squall Line – Supercells Thunderstorm Types • What determines T-storm Type? – Short/simplistic answer: CAPE vs Shear Thunderstorm Types • What determines T-storm Type? (Longer/more complex answer) – Lot we don’t know, other factors (besides CAPE/shear) include • Strength of forcing • Strength of CAP • Shear WRT to boundary • Other stuff Thunderstorm Types • Multi-cell squall lines most common type of severe thunderstorm type locally • Most common type of severe weather is damaging winds • Hail and brief tornadoes can occur with most the intense squall lines Squall Lines & Spotting Squall Line Terminology • Squall Line : a relatively narrow line of thunderstorms, often -
The Birth and Early Years of the Storm Prediction Center
AUGUST 1999 CORFIDI 507 The Birth and Early Years of the Storm Prediction Center STEPHEN F. C ORFIDI NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma (Manuscript received 12 August 1998, in ®nal form 15 January 1999) ABSTRACT An overview of the birth and development of the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center, formerly known as the National Severe Storms Forecast Center, is presented. While the center's immediate history dates to the middle of the twentieth century, the nation's ®rst centralized severe weather forecast effort actually appeared much earlier with the pioneering work of Army Signal Corps of®cer J. P. Finley in the 1870s. Little progress was made in the understanding or forecasting of severe convective weather after Finley until the nascent aviation industry fostered an interest in meteorology in the 1920s. Despite the increased attention, forecasts for tornadoes remained a rarity until Air Force forecasters E. J. Fawbush and R. C. Miller gained notoriety by correctly forecasting the second tornado to strike Tinker Air Force Base in one week on 25 March 1948. The success of this and later Fawbush and Miller efforts led the Weather Bureau (predecessor to the National Weather Service) to establish its own severe weather unit on a temporary basis in the Weather Bureau± Army±Navy (WBAN) Analysis Center Washington, D.C., in March 1952. The WBAN severe weather unit became a permanent, ®ve-man operation under the direction of K. M. Barnett on 21 May 1952. The group was responsible for the issuance of ``bulletins'' (watches) for tornadoes, high winds, and/or damaging hail; outlooks for severe convective weather were inaugurated in January 1953. -
SKYWARN Detailed Documentation
SKYWARN Detailed Documentation NWS Terminology Convective Outlook Categories Risk Description 0 - Delineates, to the right of a line, where a 10% or greater probability of General thunderstorms is forecast during the valid period. 1 - An area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low Marginal coverage and marginal intensity. An area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with 2 - Slight varying levels of intensity. 3 - An area of greater (relative to Slight risk) severe storm coverage with varying Enhanced levels of intensity. An area where widespread severe weather with several tornadoes and/or numerous 4 - severe thunderstorms is likely, some of which should be intense. This risk is Moderate usually reserved for days with several supercells producing intense tornadoes and/or very large hail, or an intense squall line with widespread damaging winds. An area where a severe weather outbreak is expected from either numerous intense and long-tracked tornadoes or a long-lived derecho-producing thunderstorm complex that produces hurricane-force wind gusts and widespread damage. This 5 - High risk is reserved for when high confidence exists in widespread coverage of severe weather with embedded instances of extreme severe (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging convective wind events). Hazardous Weather Risks Risk Description An advisory is issued when a hazardous weather or hydrologic event is occurring, imminent, or likely. Advisories are for "less serious" conditions than warnings that may cause significant inconvenience, and if caution is not exercised could lead to Advisory situations that may threaten life or property. The National Weather Service may activate weather spotters in areas affected by advisories to help them better track and analyze the event. -
2005 SKYWARN Agenda
2019 ND Severe Summer Weather Awareness Week Fact Sheet Are you Weather-Ready? North Dakota Severe Summer Weather Awareness Week is set for April 29 through May 3, 2019. Awareness weeks in North Dakota are joint efforts of many agencies, including but not limited to, FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency), NDDES (North Dakota Department of Emergency Services), the North Dakota Broadcasters Association, your local emergency manager, and NWS (National Weather Service). Local emergency managers and media partners get the word out about severe weather in North Dakota, helping people to be prepared. Severe Summer Weather Awareness Week is designed to heighten awareness about the coming severe weather season. In this case, to get us thinking less about winter storms and more about thunderstorm hazards such as lightning, hail, high wind, flash floods, and tornadoes. FEMA recommends in their "America's PrepareAthon!" initiative - Be Smart (informed), Take Part (practice drills), and Prepare (have a plan). Be Ready! On Wednesday, May 1, we recommend practicing tornado drills in communities, at schools, at places of business, and at home. Each community, school district, county and Tribal Government will decide whether or not to practice drills and to what extent. Some schools and businesses / factories will conduct a drill for their students / staff / employees and some will not. Some communities will test outdoor warning sirens and some will not. The NWS has no authority over what action is or is not taken. That decision is left to local officials and business owners. We do, of course, recommend safety measures be reviewed and drills be practiced. -
SKYWARN TRAINING in LEE COUNTY Americans Live in The
SKYWARN TRAINING IN LEE COUNTY Americans live in the most severe weather-prone country on Earth. Each year, Americans cope with an average of 10,000 thunderstorms, 2,500 floods, 1,000 tornadoes, as well as an average of 6 deadly hurricanes. Some 90% of all presidentially declared disasters are weather related, leading to around 500 deaths per year and nearly $14 billion in damage. What can you do to help protect yourself, your family, and neighbors? Consider becoming a trained SKYWARN Spotter. A trained spotter knows the weather threats in Florida, safety rules, and visual clues regarding thunderstorm strength. You can attend the training even if you do not want to be an official spotter. SKYWARN is a program sponsored by your National Weather Service (NWS) consisting of trained weather spotters who provide reports of severe and hazardous weather to help in the warning process. SKYWARN spotter reports provide vital "ground truth" to the NWS. The reports serve the NWS mission of protecting life and property in 3 ways: assist in present and future warning decisions, confirm hazardous weather detected by NWS radar, and provide verification information which can be used for future research efforts. SKYWARN is a volunteer public service for those 18 years or older. Individuals under 18 may attend the training; however they will not receive a Storm Spotter number. A certificate of Attendance will be given to them. Each year our Spotters donate their time and efforts to help the NWS issue severe weather warnings. A NOAA Weather radio will also -
Skywarn Weather Spotter Powerpoint Presentation
Skywarn Weather Spotter Training 2020 Spring Sessions www.weather.gov/albany NWSAlbany @NWSAlbany NWSAlbany Outline I. Area of Responsibility II. Spotter Safety III. Severe Weather Information IV. Thunderstorm Development V. Lightning VI. Hail VII. Damaging Winds VIII.Cloud formations IX. Tornadoes X. Timeliness of Reports XI. Excessive Rainfall and Flooding XII. New York Mesonet XIII.CoCoRaHS XIV.QUIZ XV.Certificate Area of Responsibility • 15 NY Counties • 2 VT Counties • 1 MA County • 1 CT County • 1/3 of our forecast area is at elevations of 1500 feet and above! Hydrologic Area of Responsibility Skywarn Safety Awareness Communication Escape routes Safety zones Your Safety is ALWAYS #1 Skywarn Safety Heat Safety Heat Index = Temperature + Humidity Heat Advisory Excessive Heat Warning Heat Index >= 95° Heat Index >= 105°F What is a Skywarn Spotter? Skywarn Spotter Information Sheet Timeline of Severe Weather Products Hazardous Weather .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT ... Outlook Mesoscale Discussion 0289 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK CoordinationPRELIMINARY LOCAL1212 STORMPM EDT REPORT Mon May 07 2018 withNATIONAL the Storm WEATHERAreas SERVICE affected...Portions ALBANY NY of eastern New York Prediction 326 PM EDT MONConcerning...Severe MAY 07 2018 potential...Watch possible Center ..TIME... ...EVENT... URGENT ...CITY – IMMEDIATELOCATION... BROADCAST ...LAT.LON... REQUESTED ..DATE... Watch ....MAG.... Issued Severe ..COUNTY Thunderstorm LOCATION..ST.. Watch Number ...SOURCE.... 46 for ..REMARKS..a large area NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK (multiple 245 PM EDT Mon May 7 2018 counties or 0325 PM TSTMstates) WND DMG 1 SE COHOES 42.77N 73.70W 05/07/2018 ALBANY The NWS StormNY Prediction Center COUNTY has OFFICIALissued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of eastern New Y ork MULTIPLE TREES AND BRANCHES DOWN. -
The Educational Training of Storm Chasers and Storm Spotters in Relation to Geographical Dispersion Across the United States
Minnesota State University, Mankato Cornerstone: A Collection of Scholarly and Creative Works for Minnesota State University, Mankato Theses, Dissertations, and Other Capstone Projects 2013 The ducE ational Training of Storm Chasers and Storm Spotters in Relation to Geographical Dispersion Across the United States Paul R. Zunkel Minnesota State University - Mankato Follow this and additional works at: http://cornerstone.lib.mnsu.edu/etds Part of the Meteorology Commons, and the Physical and Environmental Geography Commons Recommended Citation Zunkel, Paul R., "The ducaE tional Training of Storm Chasers and Storm Spotters in Relation to Geographical Dispersion Across the United States" (2013). Theses, Dissertations, and Other Capstone Projects. Paper 140. This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by Cornerstone: A Collection of Scholarly and Creative Works for Minnesota State University, Mankato. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses, Dissertations, and Other Capstone Projects by an authorized administrator of Cornerstone: A Collection of Scholarly and Creative Works for Minnesota State University, Mankato. The Educational Training of Storm Chasers and Storm Spotters in Relation to Geographical Dispersion Across the United States By Paul Zunkel A Thesis Submitted in partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for Master of Science Degree in Geography Minnesota State University, Mankato Mankato, Minnesota May 2013 5 April, 2013 This thesis has been examined and approved. Examining Committee: Dr. Forrest Wilkerson, Chairperson Dr. Ginger Schmid Dr. Cynthia Miller ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This research paper is dedicated to Mrs. Hope Hislop. Thank you for all the years of guidance, encouragement, and advice about following my dreams and pursuing my passions. No one could ask for a better grandmother. -
Storm Observation
Storm Observation The Basics of Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes By Ethan Schisler Introduction • About Me: • Storm Chasing since 2003 • Have chased from Montana to Florida • Observed over 100 tornadoes • Several strong hurricanes • Blizzards • Ice Storms Goal: Minimize the risks and maximize the positives Introduction • Storm Observation Can Be: • Exciting • Rewarding • Awe Inspiring • Fun • And Informative • Storm Observation Can Also Be…. • Dangerous • Time Consuming • And even costly….. Goal: Minimize the risks and maximize the positives • EF0 to EF5 • EF0 – 60-85 mph • EF1 – 86-110 mph • EF2 – 111-135 mph • EF3 – 136-165 mph • EF4 – 166-200 mph • EF5 – 200+ mph Enhanced Fujita Scale Why Storm Spotting? • Limitations in Doppler Radar • Warning Verification • To gain additional knowledge July 19 2018: Marshalltown, IA -Large EF-3 Tornado impacts town -Up to 43 minutes lead time -Only minor injuries and no deaths –Attributed to advanced warning, radar, and storm spotters! Storm Observation: Equipment • Cell phone/computer with radar application • Radarscope (Iphone, Mac, Windows); PYKL3 (Android); GR Level 3 (Windows) • Reliable vehicle to get from point A to point B • A partner to navigate • Stay distraction free while driving to the target area or storms • Video camera or still camera for documentation • Road maps and weather radio • Cell phone data can be sketchy in rural areas…have a backup plan • Marginal Risk • Slight Risk • Moderate Risk • High Risk Storm Prediction Center Outlooks Basics of Storm Development • Instability • -
Severe Deep Moist Convective Storms: Forecasting and Mitigation David L
Geography Compass 2/1 (2008): 30–66, 10.1111/j.1749-8198.2007.00069.x SevereBlackwOxford,GECOGeography17©J06910.Oct030???66???Origournal 49-819820071111/jober inal deepell ComT UK2007Art.he17 Publishing Com icles 49-8Autmoist pilatho pass 198io rconvective n .©2007 Lt 2007d .00069. Blackw stormsx ell Publishing Ltd Severe Deep Moist Convective Storms: Forecasting and Mitigation David L. Arnold* Department of Geography, Frostburg State University Abstract Small-scale (2–20 km) circulations, termed ‘severe deep moist convective storms’, account for a disproportionate share of the world’s insured weather-related losses. Spatial frequency maximums of severe convective events occur in South Africa, India, Mexico, the Caucasus, and Great Plains/Prairies region of North America, where the maximum tornado frequency occurs east of the Rocky Mountains. Interest in forecasting severe deep moist convective systems, especially those that produce tornadoes, dates to 1884 when tornado alerts were first provided in the central United States. Modern thunderstorm and tornado forecasting relies on technology and theory, but in the post-World War II era interest in forecasting has also been driven by public pressure. The forecasting process begins with a diagnostic analysis, in which the forecaster considers the potential of the atmos- pheric environment to produce severe convective storms (which requires knowl- edge of the evolving kinematic and thermodynamic fields, and the character of the land surface over which the storms will pass), and the likely character of the storms that may develop. Improvements in forecasting will likely depend on technological advancements, such as the development of phased-array radar sys- tems and finer resolution numerical weather prediction models. -
Tornado Basics
TORNADO BASICS NOAA/National Weather Service Tornado FAQ What is a tornado? According to the Glossary of Meteorology (AMS 2000), a tornado is "a violently rotating column of air, pendant from a cumuliform cloud or underneath a cumuliform cloud, and often (but not always) visible as a funnel cloud." Literally, in order for a vortex to be classified as a tornado, it must be in contact with the ground and the cloud base. Weather scientists haven't found it so simple in practice, however, to classify and define tornadoes. For example, the difference is unclear between an strong mesocyclone (parent thunderstorm circulation) on the ground, and a large, weak tornado. There is also disagreement as to whether separate touchdowns of the same funnel constitute separate tornadoes. It is well- known that a tornado may not have a visible funnel. Also, at what wind speed of the cloud-to-ground vortex does a tornado begin? How close must two or more different tornadic circulations become to qualify as a one multiple-vortex tornado, instead of separate tornadoes? There are no firm answers. BACK UP TO THE TOP How do tornadoes form? The classic answer -- "warm moist Gulf air meets cold Canadian air and dry air from the Rockies" -- is a gross oversimplification. Many thunderstorms form under those conditions (near warm fronts, cold fronts and drylines respectively), which never even come close to producing tornadoes. Even when the large-scale environment is extremely favorable for tornadic thunderstorms, as in an SPC "High Risk" outlook, not every thunderstorm spawns a tornado. The truth is that we don't fully understand.