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WRDS) Library This is a digital document from the collections of the Wyoming Water Resources Data System (WRDS) Library. For additional information about this document and the document conversion process, please contact WRDS at [email protected] and include the phrase “Digital Documents” in your subject heading. To view other documents please visit the WRDS Library online at: http://library.wrds.uwyo.edu Mailing Address: Water Resources Data System University of Wyoming, Dept 3943 1000 E University Avenue Laramie, WY 82071 Physical Address: Wyoming Hall, Room 249 University of Wyoming Laramie, WY 82071 Phone: (307) 766-6651 Fax: (307) 766-3785 Funding for WRDS and the creation of this electronic document was provided by the Wyoming Water Development Commission (http://wwdc.state.wy.us) This PDF is intended to represent the document delivered to the Wyoming Water Development Office in hard copy; however variations may exist from the printed version. LEVEL II WEATHER MODIFICATION FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR THE SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES, WYOMING Prepared for THE WYOMING WATER DEVELOPMENT COMMISSION By Don A. Griffith, CCM Mark E. Solak David P. Yorty North American Weather Consultants, Inc. And Arlen W. Huggins Darko Koracin Desert Research Institute Report No. WM 06-2 December 2006 TABLE OF CONTENTS Section Page 1.0 INTRODUCTION ………………………………………………………. 1 2.0 GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF POTENTIAL TARGET AREAS …. 3 3.0 SCOPING AND PROJECT MEETINGS ……………………………… 7 4.0 REVIEW AND SUMMARY OF PREVIOUS RESEARCH ………….. 8 4.1 Relevant Winter Weather Modification Research Programs … 8 4.2 Organizational Statements or Policies ……………………….… 17 4.3 Relevant Operational Projects …………………………………. 21 4.4 Summary of Findings from Relevant Research and Operational Winter Cloud Seeding Programs ………………………………. 27 5.0 CLIMATOLOGY OF PROJECT AREAS ……………………………. 30 5.1 Climate of Wyoming …………………………………………….. 30 5.2 Relevant Climatological Features of the Salt River and Wyoming Ranges………………………………………………….. 33 6.0 DEVELOPMENT OF PRELIMINARY DESIGN …………………….. 67 6.1 General Description of the Theory of Cloud Seeding for Precipitation Augmentation ……………………………………... 68 6.2 Preliminary Design Components ………………………………... 71 6.3 Project Scope ……………………………………………………... 73 6.4 Seeding Agent Selection ………………………………………….. 73 6.5 Targeting and Delivery Methods ………………………………... 79 6.6 Seeding Modes ……………………………………………………. 79 6.7 Meteorological Data Collection and Instrumentation ………… 101 6.8 Atmospheric Modeling ………………………………….……… 105 6.9 Personnel and Project Headquarters ………………………….. 107 6.10 Operational Period and Selection and Siting of Equipment …. 108 6.11 Estimates of Seeding Effects ……………………………………. 116 6.12 Summary of Recommended Design ……………………………. 132 7.0 ESTABLISHMENT OF OPERATIONAL CRITERIA ……………… 133 7.1 Opportunity Recognition Criteria ……………………………… 133 7.2 Communications of Seeding Decisions ………………………… 133 7.3 Seeding Suspensions ……………………………………………. 134 7.4 Communications of Seeding Activities ………………………… 138 8.0 ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES AND LEGAL IMPLICATIONS ……………………………………………………….. 139 8.1 Downwind Effects ………………………………………………. 139 8.2 Toxicity of Seeding Agents ……………………………………… 140 8.3 Avalanche Considerations ……………………………………… 141 8.4 Snow Removal …………………………………………………… 142 8.5 Delay of Snowmelt ………………………………………………. 144 8.6 General Statements on the Potential Environmental Impacts of Winter Cloud Seeding …………………………………………… 144 i Table of Contents (continued) Section Page 8.7 Legal Implications ………………………………………………. 145 9.0 PERMITTING AND REPORTING …………………………………… 147 9.1 State of Wyoming Permit Requirements ………………………. 147 9.2 U.S. Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management Permits ……………………………………………………………. 147 9.3 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Reporting ………………………………………………………… 148 10.0 ACCESS/EASEMENTS ………………………………………………… 149 11.0 EVALUATION METHODOLOGY …………………………………… 151 11.1 Background ……………………………………………………… 151 11.2 Target/Control Evaluations ……………………………………. 153 11.3 Randomization ………………………………………………….. 167 11.4 Silver in Snow Evaluations …………………………………….. 167 11.5 Computer Simulations ………………………………………….. 168 12.0 POTENTIAL BENEFITS/HYDROLOGIC ASSESSMENT ………… 170 13.0 COST ESTIMATES …………………………………………………….. 179 13.1 Estimated Cost to Conduct One Winter Season of Preliminary Data Acquisition ………………………………………………… 179 13.2 Manually Operated Silver Iodide Ground Generator Program (Core Program) …………………………………………………. 180 13.3 Addition of Five Remotely Controlled, Silver Iodide Ground Generators to Core Program ……………….…………………… 181 13.4 Addition of One Seeding Aircraft to Core Program ….………. 182 13.5 Environmental Analyses ……………………………………….. 183 14.0 PRELIMINARY BENEFIT/COST ANALYSIS ……………………… 184 14.1 Allocation of Water Use ………………………………………… 184 14.2 Economic Value of Water in the Region ………………………. 186 14.3 Augmented Runoff Amounts and Values ……………………… 186 15.0 REPORTS AND EXECUTIVE SUMMARIES ……………………….. 191 16.0 CLIMATOLOGICAL MONITORING OF THE STUDY AREA …… 192 17.0 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS …………………………………… 193 17.1 Project Area ……………………………………………………… 193 17.2 Potential Yield/Benefits …………………………………………. 193 17.3 Project Goals and Scope ………………………………………… 196 17.4 Desert Research Institute Modeling Work …………………….. 196 17.5 Comments on DRI Modeling Work ……………………………. 199 17.6 Seeding Project Preliminary Design ……………………………. 200 17.7 Key Elements of Preliminary Seeding Project Design ………… 202 17.8 Concluding Remarks ……………………………………………. 203 ii Table of Contents (continued) ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ……………………………………………………... 204 REFERENCES …………………………………………………………………… 205 APPENDICES Appendix A Technical Advisory Team ………………………………………. 216 Appendix B Scoping Meeting Attendees …………………………………….. 217 Appendix C Desert Research Institute Modeling Case Studies ……………. 218 Appendix D Historical Wyoming Cloud Seeding Permits ………………….. 258 Appendix E Glossary ………………………………………………………….. 261 Figure Page 2.1 Potential Target Areas as Defined by 8,000' Contour ………………… 4 2.2 Potential Target Area and Surrounding Areas ……………………….. 5 2.3 Topographic Profile from Grover to Daniel, Wyoming ………………. 6 4.1 Double Mass Plot for UP&L Program …………………………………. 22 4.2 Locations of Cloud Seeding Target Areas and Ground Generator Sites within Utah, 2004-2005 Winter Season ………………………….. 24 4.3 Southern Utah Seeded Year Target/Control Ratios through 2005 ….. 25 5.1 Riming on Mt. Washington, NH ……………………………………….. 34 5.2 SNOTEL Site in the Fall ………………………………………………... 36 5.3 Target Area SNOTEL Sites ……………………………………………. 38 5.4 Mean October Precipitation ……………………………………………. 41 5.5 Mean November Precipitation …………………………………………. 42 5.6 Mean December Precipitation ………………………………………….. 43 5.7 Mean January Precipitation ……………………………………………. 44 5.8 Mean February Precipitation …………………………………………… 45 5.9 Mean March Precipitation ……………………………………………… 46 5.10 Mean April Precipitation ……………………………………………….. 47 5.11 Mean November through March Precipitation ……………………….. 48 5.12 Mean April 1st Snow Water Content …………………………………… 49 5.13 Kelley RS Average Monthly Precipitation …………………………….. 50 5.14 Spring Creek Divide Average Snow Water Content Accumulation …. 51 5.15 Indian Creek Average Maximum and Minimum Temperatures …….. 51 5.16 Cottonwood Creek Average Maximum and Minimum Temperatures .. 52 5.17 Mean 6-hr SWE amounts by Month …………………………………… 54 5.18 Frequency of 6-hr SWE amounts ………………………………………. 54 5.19 October 700-mb Wind Rose …………………………………………….. 55 5.20 November 700-mb Wind Rose ………………………………………….. 56 5.21 December 700-mb Wind Rose …………………………………………... 57 iii Table of Contents (continued) Figure Page 5.22 January 700-mb Wind Rose …………………………………………….. 58 5.23 February 700-mb Wind Rose …………………………………………… 59 5.24 March 700-mbWind Rose ………………………………………………. 60 5.25 April 700-mb Wind Rose ………………………………………………... 61 5.26 October – April 700-mb Wind Rose ……………………………………. 62 5.27 Mean 700-mb Temperature by Month …………………………………. 63 5.28 Mean Height of –50 C Isotherm by Six Hour Snow Water Content Amounts ………………………………………………………… 63 5.29 Mean Height of –50 C Isotherm by Month ……………………………... 65 5.30 Mean 700-mb Temperature by SWE 6-hr Accumulation …………….. 65 5.31 Frequency of “Neutral” Stability by Month …………………………… 66 6.1 Depiction of SLW Zone …………………………………………………. 70 6.2 Reproduction of Figure 6 from WMI (2005) Executive Summary ……. 72 6.3 Potential Target Areas with SNOTEL and Snowcourse Sites ……….. 74 6.4 Manually Operated, Ground Based Silver Iodide Generator ……….. 81 6.5 Remotely Controlled, Ground Based Silver Iodide Generator ………. 82 6.6 Colorado State University Cloud Chamber Tests of NAWC’s Manually Operated Silver Iodide Generator ………………………….. 83 6.7 Example of a Seeding Flare Site ……………………………………….. 84 6.8 Aircraft with Seeding Flare Racks …………………………………….. 86 6.9 Aircraft with Silver Iodide/Acetone Ice Nuclei Generators …………... 87 6.10 CSU Cloud Chamber Tests of AeroSystems Generator ……………… 88 6.11 Aircraft Belly Mount, Ejectable Silver Iodide Seeding Flares ………. 89 6.12 Dry Ice Dispenser in Aircraft …………………………………………... 90 6.13 Illustration of Seeding Plume Spread from an Upwind Valley Site and a Site Near the Ridge Line …………………………………………. 95 6.14 Normalized Ice Crystal Growth Rate as a Function of Temperature ... 97 6.15 Schematic of Aircraft Seeding Upwind of a Mountain Barrier ………. 99 6.16 Example of a Microwave Radiometer ………………………………….. 102 6.17 Icing Rate Meter ………………………………………………………… 102 6.18 National Weather Service NEXRAD Radar Locations ………………. 104 6.19 Approximate Locations of Manually Operated Ground-Based Generators ………………………………………………………………. 110 6.20 Approximate Locations of Remotely
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