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International Briefing News 08/04 Eng Pdf (59KB) Commonwealth of Independent States The Venezuelan crisis sees Russia and the United States more than ever before in opposite camps. Moscow's decision to send military personnel to Caracas was branded as provocative by Washington, but it could allow the Kremlin to avert an armed US intervention in the Latin American country. Meanwhile, it will be the neck and neck between Volodymyr Zelensky and Petro Poroshenko scheduled for April 21 to determine who will hold the post of next Ukrainian president: the first round of elections saw the TV presenter close with a rate of consensus around 30 percent, almost twice the consensus obtained by the incumbent Head of state. The big name excluded from the final round for the presidential office is Yulia Tymoshenko, who, however, does not seem particularly inclined to recognize the outcome of the vote. First official one-on-one meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in the complicated negotiation process aimed at resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The meeting, although without significant results, allows Azerbaijan to obtain renewed guarantees on the format of the talks. The sidestep by Nursultan Nazarbayev has been taken in by Kazakhstan without too much fuss: this transition phase, which has been repeatedly defined as unexpected, seems to have been prepared in detail. President Khassym-Jomart Tokayev now has the task of providing the necessary guarantees of internal stability to the country's traditional partners. The United States is trying to persuade Turkmenistan to put aside the Tapi pipeline project in favour of the trans-Caspian infrastructure that would ensure the Ashgabat gas supplies to European markets. However, in the Central Asian country, the Russian Gasprom is also playing its game. North Africa The process to amend the Constitution and allow President Abdel Fatah al Sisi to remain in office until 2034 continues without great hindrance in Egypt. The text is to be approved in a referendum, which will probably take place in July. The approval of the amendments does not even seem to be under discussion, but in order to secure a broad victory the Al Sisi entourage is thinking of postponing the last unpopular cut in fuel subsidies and introducing an increase in wages. The macroeconomic data of the country, strengthened by the intervention of the IMF and especially by the huge discoveries of gas in the eastern Mediterranean, allow the government a fair margin of manoeuvre from this point of view. As a matter of fact, the rating agency Moody's has approved the Finance Act for the year 2019-2020, which provides for record growth rates. In Libya, General Khalifa Haftar is tightening the perimeter around Tripoli a few weeks before the national conference organized by the United Nations takes place on 14 and 16 April in the locality of Ghadames. The only strong opponents are the militiamen of Misurata, a city-state in Tripolitania that has always been hostile to Cyrenaica and Wershefana strong man. However, the Misurata militiamen appear increasingly isolated, while Haftar is approaching the target through agreements with local tribes, as was the case during the operation conducted in recent months in southern Libya. Meanwhile, representatives of the National Oil Corporation (Noc) and the Italian company Eni signed an agreement in Tripoli aimed at accelerating the production of gas in the Sabrata basin: this is a sizeable project, capable of delivering 760 million cubic feet of natural gas per day. The last summit of the Arab League was held in Tunisia on 31 March. The local authorities have tried to take this opportunity to strengthen the role of the country in an increasingly unstable and uncertain geopolitical context, particularly due to the worsening of the crisis in neighbouring Algeria. However, the summit was anticipated by the arrest of Moncef Kartas, a United Nations official responsible for investigating the arms trafficking between Tunisia and Libya: the case could also have repercussions on Tunisian domestic policy. In the meantime, it seems increasingly reasonable to believe that the Islamic movement Ennahda, the first political force in the country, supports the Prime Minister Youssef Chahed as candidate in the presidential elections on 17 November. The era of Abdelaziz Bouteflika comes to an end after twenty years. The President of Algeria resigned on the evening of 2 April after the decisive intervention of the top ranks of the army, who regained the traditional dominant role in national political life. General Ahmed Gaid Salah - Chief of Staff of the National People's Army and Deputy Minister of Defence - has always been considered one of his most loyal figures and was the absolute protagonist of the convulsive days that led to the President's departure from the scene. The forthcoming transition phase is full of uncertainties: the judiciary has opened an investigation into the big players in the Bouteflika entourage, which could spread like wildfire and further destabilize the situation, while the name of the next interim president is still uncertain. The most important event in Morocco in recent weeks has been the visit of Pope Francis to Rabat, which took place almost at the same time as the summit of the Arab League in Tunis, obscuring much of its visibility. The Pontiff and King Mohammed VI - President of the Committee for Jerusalem of the Islamic Conference - signed a common appeal recognizing the "uniqueness and sacredness" of Jerusalem, "heritage of humanity and especially for the faithful of the three monotheistic religions, as a meeting place and symbol of peaceful coexistence". In Mauritania, on the other hand, there are candidates for the next presidential elections, while long-standing problems with Senegal are re-emerging. Middle East The local elections in Turkey on 31 March marked a "bitter victory" for the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who lost the country's two main cities, Ankara and Istanbul. The nationalist rhetoric of the AKP did not get the upper hand on the frustration of the citizens over the economic crisis and the collapse of the Turkish lira, let alone the military campaign of Ankara in Syria and the alerts on security and terrorism now seem to get hold of the Turkish electorate. In this political context, the economic situation in the country continues to be bleak. In Iraq, on the other hand, some government positions remain vacant due to the divisions between the political forces, a situation that risks dragging on longer than expected, with repercussions on the stability of the current executive. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Abdul Mahdi has begun a series of visits abroad to strengthen relations with all neighbouring countries, in an attempt to maintain a balance between Iran and the Saudi orbit. In Iran, the floods of the last two weeks of March and what many have criticised as the government's slow and ineffective response to the emergency have fuelled the political struggle between the supporters of President Hassan Rohani and the extremists linked to the Guardians of the Revolution. This situation continues to be exacerbated by US sanctions, while Tehran is increasing its gas exports to countries such as Turkey, Iraq, Armenia and Azerbaijan and its oil exports to China. The Arab League meeting in Tunis on 31 March saw the Gulf Cooperation Council countries united in condemning the United States' decision to grant recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights, but it also brought back to light divisions within the GCC member countries. The summit was preceded by a series of particularly significant events that shed light on the strategy of the main regional players, Saudi Arabia, Emirates and Qatar: the visit to Saudi Arabia of Libyan General Khalifa Haftar; the trip of King Salman to Tunisia; the opening of the National Museum of Qatar which saw the participation of various international personalities, acting as a response to the initiatives undertaken by the rivals Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Another event that confirms the will of the golden couple Saudi Arabia and Emirates to strengthen their regional agenda is the visit of a delegation of 9 ministers to Iraq, which saw the opening after 30 years of a Saudi consulate in Baghdad. From an economic point of view, Riyadh always dictates the line with the announcement of the acquisition of the petrochemical giant Sabic by Aramco. The oil giant also revealed for the first time its economic data with a profit of 111 billion dollars achieved in 2018, which makes the company the richest in the world. Sub-Saharan Africa In Nigeria, while Boko Haram's counter-offensive in the northern regions of the country was reported, the Court of Appeal upheld the appeal by opposition candidate Atiku Abubakar against the re-election of President Muhammadu Buhari in the presidential elections. In Angola, President Joao Lourenco made an important official visit to Moscow to strengthen cooperation with Russia and to seek new investors to diversify its economy: seven cooperation agreements signed. In Uganda, President Yoweri Museveni has just returned from a state visit to Kenya during which he signed a series of cooperation agreements with his counterpart Uhuru Kenyatta in the fields of defence, trade and culture. In the Republic of Congo, while the new anti- corruption measures announced by President Denis Sassou-Nguesso are taking time to be approved, the important agreement signed with China for the creation of a Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Pointe-Noire can be reported. India Congress, the main opposition party, presents the government program, which focuses on the proposal of a guaranteed minimum income. Relations with Pakistan remain tense. The second meeting on the Kartarpur Corridor, the border corridor designed to connect two Sikh shrines, has been cancelled.
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