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External Sector Developments and Policies

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External Sector Developments and Policies 5 EXTERNAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS AND POLICIES 5.1 Overview ri Lanka’s external sector experienced 2018. Meanwhile, adverse developments in the significant pressure, particularly during political environment towards the end of the year the second half of 2018, due to both led to subdued investor sentiment, intensifying Sexternal and domestic factors, while the policy the pressure in the external sector. Considering measures taken helped increase resilience these developments, the Central Bank and towards the end of the year. On the external government initiated measures to curtail front, the broad-based strengthening of the US non-essential imports by way of increasing dollar following the policy interest rate hikes in tariff and margin requirements, reducing the the USA resulted in foreign investment outflows loan-to-value ratios, suspending the use of from emerging markets, including Sri Lanka. On permits for vehicle imports, among others. the domestic front, the trade deficit expanded Consequently, the external sector began to more than expected during the first three witness improved resilience towards the end quarters of the year, as the growth of import of the year as the trade deficit decelerated expenditure outpaced the growth of export markedly, reflecting the impact of policy earnings. Reflecting the impact of the expanded measures adopted to curtail imports, while the trade deficit and heightened capital outflows financial account began to strengthen with some on the back of tightening global financial inflows into the government securities market, market conditions, the liquidity conditions in the and the moderation of foreign investment domestic foreign exchange market remained outflows due to an improvement in the external mostly tight during the second half of 2018. environment as a result of the dovish monetary Consequently, the Sri Lankan rupee depreciated policy stance of the Federal Reserve of the USA significantly by end 2018, despite the substantial towards the end of 2018, lower oil prices and a build-up of official reserves in the early part of reduction in trade tensions. CENTRAL BANK OF SRI LANKA | ANNUAL REPORT 2018 The current account deficit expanded Table 5.1 Balance of Payments Analytical Presentation notably in 2018. The current account deficit increased to 3.2 per cent of GDP in 2018 from US$ million Rs. million Item 2.6 per cent of GDP in 2017, owing to the 2017 (a) 2018 (b) 2017 (a) 2018 (b) widened trade deficit, and a moderation in the Current Account (net) -2,309 -2,814 -351,341 -454,308 Trade Balance -9,619 -10,343 -1,466,133 -1,673,111 secondary income balance, despite a healthy Exports 11,360 11,890 1,732,440 1,933,533 growth in the trade in services balance. In the Imports 20,980 22,233 3,198,572 3,606,644 Services (net) 3,302 3,766 503,332 611,233 trade account, higher than expected growth in Receipts 7,724 8,374 1,177,281 1,358,881 Payments 4,421 4,608 673,949 747,648 import expenditure, particularly in categories Primary Income (net) -2,319 -2,399 -352,856 -391,934 such as vehicles, fuel and gold in the early part Receipts 173 262 26,394 42,620 Payments 2,492 2,661 379,250 434,554 of 2018, outpaced the growth in export earnings, Secondary Income (net) 6,327 6,163 964,316 999,504 resulting in a considerable widening of the trade Secondary income: credit 7,175 7,023 1,093,607 1,139,324 Workers’ remittances 7,164 7,015 1,091,972 1,138,124 deficit. Reflecting the impact of remedial policy Government transfers 11 8 1,634 1,201 Secondary income: debit 848 860 129,291 139,821 measures, the trade deficit declined significantly Capital Account (net) 11 14 1,667 2,265 in November and December 2018, easing the Capital account: credit 40 42 6,125 6,702 Capital account: debit 29 27 4,458 4,437 pressure on the exchange rate and the Balance Current and Capital Account (net) -2,298 -2,799 -349,674 -452,043 of Payments (BOP). Meanwhile, the primary Financial Account (net) -2,123 -3,328 -329,233 -536,943 Direct Investment: Assets 72 68 10,946 11,021 income account deficit recorded a marginal Direct Investment: Liabilities 1,373 1,611 210,027 260,215 increase with an increase of interest payments Portfolio Investment: Assets … ... -12 6 Debt securities … ... -12 6 on foreign loans by the government and dividend Portfolio Investment: Liabilities 1,771 129 271,165 -2,281 Equity 359 -4 54,606 -3,728 payments by direct investment enterprises Debt securities 1,413 134 216,559 1,446 Financial Derivatives - - - - (DIEs), while the reinvested earnings of DIEs Other Investment: Assets 82 343 13,268 59,977 declined significantly. However, the surplus in Currency and deposits 78 80 12,094 14,605 Trade credit and advances 35 148 5,293 23,941 the services account increased during the year, Other accounts receivable -31 116 -4,119 21,430 5 Other Investment: Liabilities 1,916 997 298,832 170,968 mainly driven by earnings from tourism and the Currency and deposits -228 -632 -33,698 -107,187 Loans 1,889 1,568 293,279 268,661 healthy inflows to the transport and computer Central Bank 184 252 28,630 39,999 Deposit-taking corporations 271 697 40,156 120,016 services sub-sectors. Meanwhile, the surplus General government 1,223 558 192,174 96,909 Other sectors 211 61 32,319 11,737 in the secondary income account reduced Trade credit and advances 195 224 29,436 32,629 Other accounts payable 61 -162 9,815 -23,135 marginally compared to 2017, as workers’ Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) - - - - remittances, which recorded an increase through Reserve Assets 2,784 -1,002 426,590 -179,045 Monetary gold - -103 - -16,244 the first nine months of the year, moderated in Special Drawing Rights 2 -3 354 -519 Reserve position in the IMF - - - - the last quarter of 2018. Other reserve assets 2,782 -896 426,236 -162,282 Currency and deposits 393 -1,012 60,087 -169,138 Securities 2,389 122 366,135 6,732 The financial account was augmented with Net Errors and Omissions 175 -529 20,441 -84,899 Overall Balance (c) 2,068 -1,103 330,004 -4,354 higher inflows during 2018. The proceeds of two As a Percentage of GDP International Sovereign Bonds (ISBs), receipt Trade Balance -10.9 -11.6 Goods and Services -7.2 -7.4 of the foreign currency term financing facility, Current Account -2.6 -3.2 receipt of the fifth tranche of the International Current and Capital Account -2.6 -3.1 (a) Revised Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Monetary Fund’s Extended Fund Facility (b) Provisional (c) Refer Table 5.13 for the derivation of overall balance. (IMF-EFF) and foreign direct investment 142 EXTERNAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS AND POLICIES Figure 5.1 External Sector Snapshot - 2018 Sri Lanka’s external sector experienced significant pressure in 2018, due to both domestic and external factors… The TRADE DEFICIT expanded in 2018.. t 4,152 5,318 ici Fuel f Apparel 2,859 2,492 Textiles 1,525 1,574 Machinery Building Personal Vehicles 904 Material 1,428 875 Chemical Rubber 622 697 Products Tea Petroleum Plastics ade De Products r Products T 2017 US $ 11,890 Mn US $ 22,233 Mn $9.6 bn 2018 $10.3bn EXPORTS IMPORTS 4.7% 6.0% Import expenditure on vehicles, fuel and gold resulted in the trade deficit widening in the first three quarters of 2018 despite a positive growth in exports… ..resulting in a widening of the ..while FINANCIAL ACCOUNT received CURRENT ACCOUNT deficit.. significant inflows EQUITY EQUITY DEBT DEBT Despite the highest IT BPO Inflows Outflows Inflows Outflows earnings from $ 0.8 bn tourism with steady FDI Portfolio ISBs Gov. Loans US$ 2.5 bn US$ 1.8 bn ravel growth of IT/BPO US$ 2.1 bn US$ 4 mn T $ 4.4 bn and transport sectors, along-side workers’ Gov. Loans Banks’ Bonds $ 7.0 bn orkers’ remittances and primary US$ 2.3 bn US$ 1.35 bn W The Financial Account Remittances income account 5 $ 2.5 bn strengthened with deficit remaining significant equity and IMF-EFF Gov. Sec. stable, the current US$ 252mn US$ 1.0 bn ransport T $ -2.4 bn debt flows despite $ account deficit large debt repayments widened in 2018. and government securities rimary P outflows. Income (net) Consequent POLICY MEASURES adopted to curtail imports strengthened the external sector in early 2019 Several policy measures were adopted to stabilise imports and mitigate pressure on the These developments eased the pressure on the exchange rate… external sector, resulting in a notable appreciation of the Sri Lankan rupee by end March 2019. Jan - Apr 2018 182.7 Sep 2018: US$ 138 mn End Dec 2018 US$ 437 mn Oct 2018: US$ 161 mn May - Dec 2018 Nov 2018: US$ 105 mn US$ 1 mn Dec 2018: US$ 77 mn 176.1 Jan 2019 End Mar 2019 Jan 2019: US$ 50 mn VEHICLES GOLD US$ 0.1 mn 152.9 End Dec 2017 ..resulting in a significant reduction in vehicles and gold imports, 7 9 8 8 1 1 1 1 - - - - r c c containing the trade deficit towards end 2018 and early 2019. n a e e u J D D M 143 CENTRAL BANK OF SRI LANKA | ANNUAL REPORT 2018 Figure 5.2 outflows of foreign investments as in a number Balance of Payments of other emerging markets, particularly countries 3 with current account deficits. This, coupled with 2 a surge in import expenditure, dried up liquidity 1 P D 0 in the domestic foreign exchange market, G f o -1 % -2 thereby exerting significant pressure on the -3 Sri Lankan rupee.
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