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Review of Extreme Events from North East Monsoon Season 2018

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Review of Extreme Events from North East Monsoon Season 2018 Review of Extreme Events from Northeast Monsoon Season 2018 Fifteenth Session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum -Winter Session- 24th September 2019 Upeakshika Bandara Hydrologist RIMES Contents • Disasters of 2018 – A review • Northeast monsoon season • Northeast monsoon season 2018 – SASCOF 13 • Northeast monsoon season 2018 – Extreme Events • Summary • Discussions 2 • 315 • 11,804 • 68.5 million • $ 132 billion • 348* • 67,572* • 198.8 million* • $ 167 billion* Mortality Total Total Events Total Total affected Economic Economic loss *2018 – 2017 yearly average Source: https://www.cred.be 3 Source: https://www.cred.be SOUTH ASIA REGION • Floods and storms had been most destructive • Highest mortality and highest number affected reported in India • 504 casualties, 23.2 million affected 4 Northeast Monsoon Season • Period: October, November and December • Crucial for agriculture, water, energy and health • Northeast Monsoon influence on; • Peninsular India, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Southern coastal Myanmar • Western disturbances on; • Afghanistan, Pakistan, North India, Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Myanmar 5 Northeast Monsoon Season 2018 SASCOF 13 October – December 2018 December 2018 - February 2019 • Above normal rainfall; • Maldives • South-east Peninsular India • Sri Lanka • Below normal rainfall • Bay of Bengal • Near normal rainfall • Afghanistan • Pakistan • India Source: SASCOF-13, Consensus Statement on the forecast for 2018 6 Northeast Monsoon Season 2018 Extreme Events Droughts 2018 - 2019 Afghanistan Pakistan Cyclones October 2018 Cyclone Titli (India) November 2018 Cyclone Gaja (India and Sri Lanka) Floods October 2018 Bangladesh (May to Oct) Sri Lanka December 2018 Maldives Sri Lanka Cold Waves December 2018 India 7 Northeast Monsoon Season 2018 Extreme Events 8 Afghanistan – Drought 2018-2019 • Precipitation deficit of over 70% during traditional wet months (December to February) • Food security issues for over 4.9 million 9 10 Pakistan – Drought 2018 - 2019 • Sindh and Balochistan severely affected • 24% less rainfall overall • 69.5% below average in Sindh • 45% below average in Balochistan • Impacts are felt by over 5 million Source: http://ndma.gov.pk/files/NCWD%20Report-11.2.2019.pdf 11 Pakistan – Drought 2018 - 2019 Source: http://ndma.gov.pk/files/NCWD%20Report-11.2.2019.pdf 12 Tropical Cyclone Titli – October 2018 • Occurred from 11th to 18th of October 2018 • Heavy, very heavy and extremely heavy rainfall resulted in coastal flooding and flash floods • 8.1 million affected in Odisha and Andra Pradesh • 86 casualties • “Rarest of rare cyclones, in 200 years” Source: https://reliefweb.int 13 Sri Lanka – Floods, October 2018 • Heavy rainfall occurred on 2nd October resulted in flash floods and landslides • Rise of water levels in Kelani, Kalu and Gin rivers • Impacts • 9 casualties • Over 48,900 affected • 5,834 evacuated Source: https://reliefweb.int/ 14 15 Tropical Cyclone Gaja – November 2018 • Occurred from 6th to 21st of November 2018 • Southern India and Northern Sri Lanka were affected • Heavy rainfall resulted in flash floods • Impacts: • Nearly 250,000 evacuated in Tamil Nadu, India • 45 casualties • Over 5,800 people affected in Jaffna, Sri Lanka Source: https://www.accuweather.com 16 Sri Lanka – Floods, December 2018 • Due to Northeast monsoon • Heavy rainfall in North, North Central, Uva and North Western Provinces • 24-hr rainfall higher than 250 mm in Mullativu and Killinochchi • More than 125,000 affected, 2 casualties Source: WFP report on flood impact of NE monsoon 2018 in Sri Lanka • Heavy damage to paddy cultivation 17 North-east monsoon 2018 18 India – Cold Waves, December 2018 • Occurred from December 2018 – February 2019 • A total of 167 cold waves • Temperatures reached below 20C in North Rajasthan and Punjab • 120 casualties • Spread of Swine flu due to cold weather Source: https://reliefweb.int/ 19 Summary • Overall situation; • Food security issues and loss of livelihood due to droughts • Casualties and property damage due to floods • Drought conditions are likely to continue! • Very severe cyclones in the region! • Monsoon forecast; improvements required! • Drought conditions in Pakistan and Afghanistan; forecast was near normal rainfall • Below normal rainfall in India; forecast indicated near normal rainfall 20 Discussions • Satisfactory response observed • More awareness and preparedness • Acknowledgement of unexpected events • Improvements in location specific weather forecasting • Dissemination of weather information and advisories • Water management practices • Database of hydro-meteorological data and extreme events 21 Thank You!.
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