World Energy Issues Monitor 2019 ABOUT THE WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL ABOUT ISSUES MONITOR The World Energy Council is the principal impartial The World Energy Issues Monitor provides a snapshot of network of energy leaders and practitioners promoting what keeps CEOs, Ministers and experts awake at night in an affordable, stable and environmentally sensitive over 90 countries. The monitor helps to define the world energy system for the greatest benefit of all. energy agenda and its evolution over time. It provides a high-level perception of what constitute issues of critical Formed in 1923, the Council is the UN-accredited global uncertainty, in contrast to those that require immediate energy body, representing the entire energy spectrum, action or act as developing signals for the future. It is with over 3,000 member organisations in over 90 an essential tool for understanding the complex and countries, drawn from governments, private and state uncertain environment in which energy leaders must corporations, academia, NGOs and energy stakeholders. operate, and a tool through which one can challenge We inform global, regional and national energy strategies one’s own assumptions on the key drivers within the by hosting high-level events including the World Energy energy landscape. Congress, publishing authoritative studies and working through our extensive member network to facilitate the This tenth iteration of the monitor is based on insights world’s energy policy dialogue. provided by more than 2,300 energy leaders to provide 50 national assessments across six world regions. Further details at www.worldenergy.org and @WECouncil In addition to this report, the interactive online Issues Monitor tool allows the visualisation of the data that Published by the World Energy Council 2019 underpins the Issues Maps. This tool has been developed Copyright © 2019 World Energy Council. All rights in collaboration with our Project Supporter ARUP. reserved. All or part of this publication may be used or reproduced as long as the following citation is included on each copy or transmission: ‘Used by permission of the World Energy Council’ World Energy Council Registered in England and Wales No. 4184478 VAT Reg. No. GB 123 3802 48 Registered Office 62–64 Cornhill London EC3V 3NH United Kingdom MANAGING THE ENERGY TRANSITION FOREWORD In an era of fast and fundamental shifts in the context of the world we live in, where prosperity for all people and a healthy planet must more than ever be treated as a shared responsibility, it is paramount that we are provided with the tools to understand how changes and progress in the national, regional and global landscapes interact with and influence each other. For ten consecutive years, the World Energy Issues Monitor has been gathering the perspectives of energy leaders from public and private sectors across the six regions on 42 key issues that shape and drive our energy system. The Issues Monitor has become the energy leaders’ foremost platform to identify, share and track critical issues surrounding the Energy Transition and assess which ones keeps them most awake at night or busy at work and how these change across time and space. I am delighted that for the tenth anniversary of the Issues Monitor tool, a record number of nearly 2,300 world energy leaders from 86 countries has contributed to the survey. As I reflect on this report and a decade of transition preceding it the following trends stand out: 1. The global Energy Transition is driven by digitalisation, decarbonisation, decentralisation which is illustrated by upward trends of innovation issues including storage, decentralisation, alternative transport, renewables and downward trends of traditionally centralised energy system components 2. Traditional market design is under pressure to reform to enable renewable integration, respond to resilience challenges and incorporate the growing decentralisation movement; 3. The accelerating pace of electrification via renewable energy sources is further shifting focus toward decentralisation and decarbonisation 4. Global strategic competition and the rise of nationalism illustrated by a sharp increase of concerns around trade barriers will impact the pace of the Energy Transition 5. Commodity prices that have been traditionally dominated by oil and gas seem to be incorporating key minerals such lithium and cobalt as they continue their rise in enabling integration of renewable energy and storage technologies 6. Resilience challenges and concerns around cyber threats, extreme weather and energy water nexus remain acute but with great differences in priority depending on the region 7. Hydrogen – although on global average still a weak signal – is moving up in a number of countries including Germany, Japan, Iceland, New Zealand signalling the quest for infrastructure repurposing and need for green liquids as complement to electrification The report further outlines key trends that are unfolding at the global, regional and national levels based on the most recent survey results. In addition, the Issues Monitor’s interactive online tool provides the possibility to track and compare issues’ evolution over-time. I would like to thank all energy leaders and the Council’s Member Committees who have worked contributed to the 2019 Issues Monitor so that this resource can be provided to all energy shapers and I hope it can continue to inform decisions and actions towards our shared development goals. Christoph Frei, Secretary General 1 WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL | ISSUES MONITOR | 2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD 1 OVERVIEW 4 1 GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE 5 2 ASSESSING THE ENERGY AGENDA FOR AFRICA 18 REGIONAL OVERVIEW & CONTEXT 19 ALGERIA 23 BURKINA FASO 26 CAMEROON 29 CONGO (DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF) 32 CÔTE D’IVOIRE 35 GHANA 38 NAMIBIA 41 NIGER 44 NIGERIA 47 SOUTH AFRICA 50 3 ASSESSING THE ENERGY AGENDA FOR ASIA 53 REGIONAL OVERVIEW & CONTEXT 54 CHINA 58 INDIA 61 INDONESIA 65 JAPAN 69 MALAYSIA 72 MONGOLIA 75 NEW ZEALAND 78 SRI LANKA 81 4 ASSESSING THE ENERGY AGENDA FOR EUROPE 84 REGIONAL OVERVIEW & CONTEXT 85 AUSTRIA 88 BELGIUM 92 ESTONIA 94 FINLAND 97 FRANCE 101 GERMANY 104 GREECE 107 ICELAND 109 ITALY 112 LATVIA 116 2 MANAGING THE ENERGY TRANSITION LITHUANIA 119 POLAND 122 PORTUGAL 125 ROMANIA 128 RUSSIAN FEDERATION 131 SERBIA 134 SLOVENIA 137 SPAIN 140 SWEDEN 143 SWITZERLAND 146 TURKEY 149 UNITED KINGDOM 152 5 ASSESSING THE ENERGY AGENDA FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN 155 REGIONAL OVERVIEW & CONTEXT 156 ARGENTINA 159 BRAZIL 162 CHILE 165 COLOMBIA 168 ECUADOR 171 PANAMA 174 6 ASSESSING THE ENERGY AGENDA FOR THE MIDDLE EAST AND GULF STATES 177 REGIONAL OVERVIEW & CONTEXT 178 LEBANON 181 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 184 7 ASSESSING THE ENERGY AGENDA FOR NORTH AMERICA 187 REGIONAL OVERVIEW & CONTEXT 188 CANADA 191 MEXICO 194 8 ASSESSING THE ENERGY AGENDA FOR THE FUTURE ENERGY LEADERS 197 OVERVIEW & CONTEXT 198 METHODOLOGY AND PROJECT CONTRIBUTORS 202 THE 42 WORLD ENERGY ISSUES 203 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 207 3 WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL | ISSUES MONITOR | 2019 OVERVIEW This is the tenth consecutive year of the World Energy Council’s (the Council) annual survey of key challenges and opportunities facing energy leaders in managing and shaping Energy Transitions. This year’s Issues Monitor report provides seven global maps1, six regional maps and fifty national maps. These maps have been developed by analysing the responses of nearly 2,300 energy leaders, drawn from across the Council’s diverse and truly global energy community2. The Council’s Issues Monitor identifies the strategic energy landscape of specific countries and regions in the world, through an analysis of 42 energy issues and 4 digitalisation-specific issues affecting the energy system. It provides aunique reality check and horizon scanning of persistent and emerging concerns involved in whole energy systems transition. This year’s report welcomes a signif- icant increase in both the participation of global leaders (up over 75% from 1,300 to nearly 2,300) as well as the participation of 86 countries. Each Issue Map provides a visual snapshot of the uncertainties and action priorities that energy policymakers, CEOs and leading experts strive to address to shape and manage successful Energy Transitions. Maps can be used in the following ways: • To promote a shared understanding of successful Energy Transitions • To appreciate and contrast regional variations to better understand differing priorities and areas of concern • To follow the evolution of specific technology trends related to the energy sector FIGURE 1: Visual Snapshot – How to read an Issues Map ty n ertai c n U Critical Uncertainties: What keeps Energy Leaders awake at night Action Priorities: Weak Signals What keeps Energy Leaders busy at work World Energy Issues Monitor 2019 - Understanding the Monitor Impact Less urgent More urgent 1. Six of the maps are included in the global overview section while the Future Energy Leader’s issue map is presented in the last section. 2. The Council received survey responses from 86 countries via its national Member Committee network. All of these responses have been incorporated into the Global map, but we have produced only 50 national maps, which correspond to the number of countries that were able to meet the minimum response requirements for the production of a national map. 4 MANAGING THE ENERGY TRANSITION Chapter one Global Perspective 5 WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL | ISSUES MONITOR | 2019 1. GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE The global map and narrative are built from a synthesis of individual country analyses and commentaries. These provide an informed picture of five categories of transition challenges at national, regional and global levels: 1. macroeconomic risks 2. geopolitics 3. business environment 4. energy vision 5. technology The 2019 global map incorporates all survey responses, representing the views of nearly 2,300 energy leaders from 86 countries. In an era referred to by the Council as the Grand Transition1, energy leaders must pay attention to many different signals of change and distinguish key issues from the noise. The Issues Monitor identifies shifting patterns of connected issues which are shaping Energy Transitions.