Review of disaster risks and structural vulnerability assessments in Myanmar VOLUME 1 – Overview of Yangon’s disaster risk profile 1 2 This publication is a product of the staff and consultants of the International Bank of Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the executive directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. This note is created by The World Bank and available under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CCBY4.0) license. 1 2 INTRODUCTION Myanmar is the largest country in Southeast Asia by This document, Review of Disaster Risks and area with a population of over 50 million and is highly Structural Vulnerability Assessments in Myanmar is exposed to natural disasters. Myanmar ranks 2nd a two-volume report providing the analytical baseline out of 187 countries in the 2016 Global Climate Risk for the BRCA. Findings and recommendations from Index1 and 9th out of 191 countries in the Index for this review will be used to further refine the objectives Risk Management (INFORM)2. Over the past 25 years, and scope of the planned BRCA technical assistance. Myanmar has suffered 24 disaster events, affecting Volume 1 - Overview of Yangon’s disaster risk profile more than 4 million people and causing US$4.7 billion is a literature review of existing hazard, exposure, in damages3. A preliminary financial risk assessment vulnerability and damage assessments in Yangon, estimated expected annual economic losses of over and a synopsis of relevant laws and regulations. This US$184 million due to natural disasters, equivalent to volume serves as a detailed account of the large 0.9 percent of GDP4. Given the importance of the city number of DRM-related resources that have been of Yangon, many studies that look at natural disasters developed to date. No independent vulnerability conducted in Myanmar have focused on the city. In assessments were conducted as part of this activity. particular, there is a rich body of reports that analyze various aspects of natural hazards and the associated Volume 2 - Analysis of research findings and vulnerabilities related to Yangon. At the same time, implications on disaster resilience of Yangon’s built the country is considering major revisions to its environment is an analysis of select reports from regulatory structure. As a prelude to undertaking Volume 1 that have implications for DRM planning, this reform, it is crucial to have a complete picture policies, and institutions in Yangon. This volume, of existing and ongoing natural hazard studies and which is organized topically as with Volume 1, serves vulnerability reports that will underpin the subsequent as a high-level synthesis of the reference documents regulatory structure. Accordingly, this study was and highlights their key messages for decision- initiated to compile, review, and assess the available makers. studies related to natural hazards in Yangon. The background research, interviews, and analysis Myanmar Southeast Asia Disaster Risk Management for this review were carried out with financial support (SEA DRM) Project5 aims to improve the drainage from the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction system and structural performance of selected public and Recovery (GFDRR) through the Japan - World facilities in Yangon, as well as to enhance disaster Bank Program for Mainstreaming Disaster Risk response. A component of this project ‘Safer Public Management in Developing Countries Trust Fund. Facilities and Critical Infrastructure’ includes technical assistance activities for a Building Regulatory Capacity Assessment (BRCA), which involves a risk 1. GermanWatch. 2016. Global Climate Risk Index 2016. assessment of critical infrastructure in Yangon and a https://germanwatch.org/fr/download/13503.pdf review of the city’s institutional capacity. 2. INFORM (Index for Risk Management). 2016. Results Report 2016 (http://www.informindex.org/Portals/0/InfoRM/2016/ INFORM%20Results%20Report%202016%20WEB.pdf); Myanmar Country Profile (http://www.inform-index.org/ Portals/0/Inform/2016/country_profiles/MMR.pdf). 3. Preliminary World Bank analysis based on data from EM-DAT database (http://www.emdat.be/). 4. World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. 2012. ASEAN. Advancing Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance in ASEAN Member States: Framework and Options for Implementation 5. Financed by the World bank 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This two-volume report was prepared by consultants The World Bank’s (WB) Southeast Asia Disaster Risk (Miyamoto International) under the supervision of Management Project for Myanmar has the overall World Bank staff as input for the Myanmar Southeast goal of improving the drainage system and structural Asia Disaster Risk Management (SEA DRM) Project performance of selected public facilities in Yangon, as (P160931). The report was prepared through well as enhancing disaster response. financial support from the Global Facility for Disaster The project comprises the following five components: Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) through the Japan - World Bank Program for Mainstreaming Disaster Risk • Component C1: Strengthening Financial Management in Developing Countries Trust Fund. Planning for Disaster Resilience The significant contributions of Daw Hlaing Maw Oo • Component C2: Urban Flood Risk Management (Secretary) and Daw Hnin Ei Win (Section Head – • Component C3: Safer Public Facilities and Engineering Department of Buildings) from the Yangon Critical Infrastructure City Development Committee (YCDC), U Saw Htwe • Component C4: Project Management Zaw (Vice Chairman) of the Myanmar Earthquake Committee (MEC), and organizations interviewed • Component C5: Contingent Emergency Response during the February 2019 mission are acknowledged. One of the subcomponents under Component C3 is The World Bank team consisted of Mr. Michael dedicated to the building regulatory and vulnerability Bonte-Grapentin (Senior Disaster Risk Management assessment (VA) with the goal of strengthening the Specialist), Mr. Thomas Moullier (Senior Urban institutional capacity of the Yangon City Development Specialist), Mr. Frederick Krimgold (Senior Committee (YCDC). Consultant), Ms. Theresa Abrassart (Urban The objective of this two-volume report is to present a Development Consultant), Mr. Andrew Hurley comprehensive analysis of the risk environment based (Engineering Consultant), Ms Khin Aye Yee (Operations on the available literature. Officer), Ms Thida Aung (Program Assistant), and Mr Aung Naing Oo (Consultant). The guidance of the This document (Volume 1) consolidates and presents task team throughout the project and their thoughtful the known risks to Yangon from natural and secondary review of this report is appreciated. The report was hazards based on the available literature. It then reviewed and finalized by Keiko Saito (Senior Disaster proceeds to identify gaps in terms of risk information. Risk Management Specialist), Dixi Mengote-Quah The review shows that various government agencies, (Infrastructure Specialist), and Nick John Paul (Editor), international organizations, and participating and guided by Jolanta Kryspin-Watson (Lead Disaster individuals have made significant contributions to the Risk Management Specialist). study of the risk environment in the city, and a number of high-quality technical reports have been prepared. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions Volume 2 of the report is an analysis of select reports expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the from Volume 1 that have particular implications for World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the DRM planning, policies, and institutions in Yangon. governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 4 The hazard environment impacting a city can be ORGANIZATION OF THIS REPORT classified according to two types of hazards: acute or chronic. Acute natural hazards (earthquake, cyclone, This report is divided into eight chapters and flood, landslide, tsunami, and volcano eruption) have includes an appendix. Chapter 2 presents a detailed a low probability of occurrence but a large impact. discussion of the four natural hazards (earthquake, Chronic hazards (urban fire, epidemic disease, public wind, flood, and fire) examined. Chapters 3 and 4 health, and building collapse not related to acute introduce the exposure environment in Yangon and hazard) have a higher likelihood of occurrence but the fragility functions for the built environment. This usually impact a smaller segment of the population. is followed by discussions on pre-event assessment To develop a resilient city and community, both methodology in Chapter 5 and post-event damage classes of hazard need to be addressed. This report assessment in Chapter 6. Chapter 7 presents focuses specifically on earthquakes, cyclones, information on DRM and response. A discussion of floods, and urban fires. There is universal agreement relevant laws and regulations is presented in Chapter among the relevant studies that Yangon is vulnerable 8. Chapter 9 contains a brief discussion of building to these categories of hazard. The vulnerability of regulatory assessment and reform, intended as Yangon to each of these hazards is comprehensively an initial discussion of the subsequent project on covered in the documents