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Time-Space Analysis of Terrorist Planning Cycles Michael Stephen Gerald Eastham University of Arkansas, Fayetteville

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Time-Space Analysis of Terrorist Planning Cycles Michael Stephen Gerald Eastham University of Arkansas, Fayetteville University of Arkansas, Fayetteville ScholarWorks@UARK Theses and Dissertations 8-2014 Time-Space Analysis of Terrorist Planning Cycles Michael Stephen Gerald Eastham University of Arkansas, Fayetteville Follow this and additional works at: http://scholarworks.uark.edu/etd Part of the Criminology Commons, and the Human Geography Commons Recommended Citation Eastham, Michael Stephen Gerald, "Time-Space Analysis of Terrorist Planning Cycles" (2014). Theses and Dissertations. 2226. http://scholarworks.uark.edu/etd/2226 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by ScholarWorks@UARK. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@UARK. For more information, please contact [email protected], [email protected]. Time-Space Analysis of Terrorist Planning Cycles Time-Space Analysis of Terrorist Planning Cycles A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Geography by Michael Eastham James Madison University Bachelor of Science in Geographic Science, 2012 August 2014 University of Arkansas This thesis is approved for recommendation to the Graduate Council. ___________________________________ Dr. Fiona Davidson Thesis Director ___________________________________ ___________________________________ Dr. Brent Smith Dr. Jackson Cothren Committee Member Committee Member Abstract Terrorism is among the largest threats to national and international security in today’s global community. Acts of terrorism have resulted economic and societal impacts throughout the world. Improvements in technology have increased the capacity of terrorists to maximize the impact of their actions. The increasing influence and prevalence of terrorist activity has demanded research focused on the prevention of terrorist acts. A known method of terrorism prevention is uncovering a plot during its planning and preparation phase. Terrorist planning can be evaluated based on how actors move through space and time prior to the execution of their attack. General patterns and insights into terrorist planning activities can offer the intelligence, defense, and law enforcement communities with information on how where terrorists can be located in relationship to their target throughout their planning cycle. This movement within a planning cycle can be easily visualized and analyzed through the use of a Time-Space Signature. This research assesses the movements of actors involved in past terrorist activities in order to determine how terrorists move in space and time during their planning cycle. Acknowledgements This research including the analysis into terrorist planning cycles was made possible due to the efforts of my committee consisting of Dr. Fiona Davidson, Dr. Jackson Cothren, and Dr. Brent Smith. Thanks to Paxton Roberts at the Terrorism Research Center in Fulbright College for help with the “American Terrorism Study” data and his assistance and commitment to this research. Thanks to the Terrorism Research Center in Fulbright College for their diligent work in hosting the American Terrorism Study (ATS) database and conducting invaluable terrorism related research. Thanks to the University of Arkansas Department of Geosciences. Thanks to my family for their support and guidance throughout my academic career. Table of Contents I. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 II. Literature Review ....................................................................................................................... 4 Terrorism Background ................................................................................................................ 4 Terrorism as a study of sociology ............................................................................................... 6 The Geography of Terrorism ...................................................................................................... 8 Spatial and Quantitative Analysis of Terrorism ........................................................................ 10 III. Methodology ........................................................................................................................... 17 Time Space Signature Development ......................................................................................... 17 Time Space Signature Analysis ................................................................................................ 21 Distribution of Spatial and Temporal Values Analysis ............................................................ 23 Database .................................................................................................................................... 25 Data Selection ........................................................................................................................... 27 IV. Discussion and Results ........................................................................................................... 30 All Terrorist Categories ............................................................................................................ 30 Environmental Extremist .......................................................................................................... 39 Far-Left ..................................................................................................................................... 56 Far-Right ................................................................................................................................... 73 Islamic Extremist ...................................................................................................................... 93 V. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 110 Future Research Direction ...................................................................................................... 114 VI. References ............................................................................................................................. 116 VII. Appendix ............................................................................................................................. 122 Appendix A. ............................................................................................................................ 122 Table of Figures Figure 1. Example of Time-Space Signature for ELF Family Incident ........................................ 19 Figure 2. R Scripting for the Production of a Time-Space Signature ........................................... 20 Figure 3. R Scripting for the Calculation of a Statistical Summary ............................................. 23 Figure 4. R Scripting for the Construction of Histograms ............................................................ 24 Figure 5. ATS Records and Selected ATS Records Included in the Analysis ............................. 28 Figure 6. Map Showing Terrorist Planning Incidents by State (1976-2010) ................................ 28 Figure 7. The Seven Stages of a Terrorist Attack ......................................................................... 31 Figure 8. Theorized Time-Space Signature for Terrorist Attacks (3 Target Visits) ..................... 34 Figure 9. Theorized Time-Space Signature for Terrorist Attacks (2 Target Visits) ..................... 35 Figure 10. Time-Space Signature for Terrorist Planning Cycles .................................................. 36 Figure 11. Time-Space Signature for All Incidents by Category ................................................. 37 Figure 12. Time-Space Signature for All Incidents by Category ................................................. 38 Figure 13. Time-Space Signature for Environmental Incidents ................................................... 41 Figure 14. Distribution of Environmental Time Values ............................................................... 42 Figure 15. Histogram for Distribution of Environmental Time Values ........................................ 43 Figure 16. Distribution of Environmental Distance Values .......................................................... 44 Figure 17. Histogram for Distribution of Environmental Distance Values .................................. 44 Figure 18. Distribution of Values for Initial Acts in Environmental Incidents ............................ 45 Figure 19. Time-Space Signatures for Environmental Incidents by Incident ID ......................... 46 Figure 20. Time-Space Signatures for Environmental Incidents by Incident ID ......................... 47 Figure 21. Time-Space Signatures for Environmental Incidents by Case Study .......................... 48 Figure 22. Time-Space Signatures for Environmental Incidents by Case Study .......................... 49 Figure 23. Time-Space Signatures for Environmental Incidents by Incident Subtype ................. 50 Figure 24. Time-Space Signatures for Environmental Incidents by Incident Subtype ................. 51 Figure 25. Time-Space Signatures for Environmental Incidents by Weapon Type ..................... 52 Figure 26. Time-Space Signatures for Environmental Incidents by Weapon Type ..................... 53 Figure 27. Time-Space Signatures for Environmental Incidents by Target Type ........................ 54 Figure 28. Time-Space Signatures for Environmental Incidents by Target Type
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