The Chatham House London Conference

In the Balance: A Future World (Dis)Order

Monday 23 and Tuesday 24 October 2017, St Pancras Renaissance Hotel, London

Introduction World order is fundamentally changing. The Trump presidency has left a vacuum in global leadership; developments in the Middle East are intensifying the struggle between Gulf states and Iran ; Russia persists in reasserting its power while Europe remains preoccupied with its internal recovery; the North Korean threat has become thornier; and China seeks to balance its growing international ambitions and internal dilemmas. This is all taking place against a backdrop of accelerating technological advances and ever-expanding flows of information, bringing unprecedented change and uncertainty to how we work, compete and relate.

The 2017 Chatham House London Conference will focus on how world order is shifting under these pressures and how societies and leaders can best adapt. This is a vital moment to convene leading thinkers and actors from across the world to compare best practices and chart ways to work together to build a sustainably secure, prosperous and just world.

MONDAY 23 OCTOBER

0800 Registration and refreshments

WELCOME FROM CHATHAM HOUSE 0850 Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House

BRAIN STORM | WHAT IS ON YOUR MIND? 0900 – 0930 Nik Gowing, Visiting Professor, Department of War Studies, King’s College London

KEYNOTE | A VISION FOR GLOBAL BRITAIN 0930 – 1015 Senior UK Cabinet Minister

1015 – 1045 Refreshments

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PLENARY SESSION ONE | AMERICA FIRST, AMERICA ALONE: THE END OF WORLD ORDER? 1045 – 1145 Under President Trump, the US appears to be withdrawing from its historical role as the underwriter of the post-war liberal consensus. Instead, the current administration has chosen to define the world as one where the US must and will compete against others, including allies, for national advantage. This amounts to a strategic shift in world order – away from the US as the world’s superpower helping create a ‘global community’, towards one where it sets the example for a ‘Me First’ and more adversarial environment for international affairs.

Does this Trump worldview mean the death of the post-war liberal consensus? Or should it be defended? Is there any value to accepting a more explicitly interests-based order?

The Hon Mary Beth Long, Co-founder and Principal, Global Alliance Advisors, and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, US (2007–09) Alan Wm. Wolff , Deputy Director-General, World Trade Organization Baroness Manningham-Buller, Co-president, Chatham House Chair: Stephen Sackur, Presenter, HARDtalk, BBC

PLENARY SESSION TWO | PEOPLE VS POLITICS: BUILDING AND BREAKING TRUST 1145 – 1245 Trust is fundamental for human progress – in governments, in institutions and between communities. Public trust enables citizens to engage with and build political communities beyond their tribe or class. But, recently, trust in political systems has eroded. This trend is not limited to the West – as attested by the scandals and political turmoil in Brazil, support for the Duterte presidency in the Philippines and the attempted coup and government response in Turkey. And in many countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, trust in the political process and accompanying institutions is intensely fragile. At the same time, technology has changed traditional means of political communication, enabling new forms of activism and creating opportunities for greater individual engagement.

Is this loss of trust cyclical, as the predominant systems of government age, or is this a more acute crisis? How do we build (or rebuild) trust – and in what? Is this possible in a world of instant and often untrustworthy information? How can technology enhance political discourse, as well as enabling greater engagement?

M J Akbar, Minister of State for External Affairs, India Michael Stewart, Global Vice Chairman, Edelman Ida Auken, Member of Parliament, Denmark Nick Pickles, Head of Public Policy and Government, UK and Israel, Twitter Chair: Elizabeth Linder, Founder and CEO, The Conversational Century

1245 – 1345 Lunch

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BREAKOUT SESSIONS – ROUND ONE 1345 – 1500

Session 1 | Beyond Oil: New Economies in the Middle East and North Africa This session will be taking place in ‘The Quarters’ While most attention to economic opportunities in the Middle East and North Africa has been directed at the oil- and gas-fuelled Gulf economies, the MENA region offers a potentially more diverse economic landscape. Beirut is becoming a tech capital of the Arab world, a hub for start-ups that are making their mark in the international market. GCC oil-exporting countries are pursuing strategies to achieve great economic diversification. Tunisia offers a wealth of natural, industrial and human resources that are beginning to attract foreign investment. And in Iraq, the liberation of areas from ISIS is paving the way for reviving the economy and diversification beyond oil. Can these new economic opportunities be made sustainable – nationally, regionally or globally? Which are the brightest spots? Which are the most important obstacles to overcome?

Habib Haddad, President and Managing Director, E14 Fund; Co-founder and CEO, Wamda Omezzine Khélifa, President, Mobdi’un – Creative Youth Lapo Pistelli, Executive Vice President of International Affairs, Eni Chair: Jane Kinninmont, Deputy Head and Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House

Session 2 | Hacking Elections: Politics and Cyber Security This session will be taking place in the ‘Ladies Smoking Room’ Foreign meddling in the politics of other countries, and elections in particular, is nothing new. However, digital technologies are changing the tools available to disruptors, and there is a view that Russia’s interference in the US and French presidential elections broke new ground. There are growing concerns over the integrity of polls in other countries – not just through hacking, but also influence campaigns designed to undermine public faith in the democratic process, spread disinformation and disseminate ‘fake’ news. Data mining and analysis, and the questionable use of personal data to create psychographics, have also raised apposite questions about voter manipulation. How can democracies pre-empt foreign interference and political hacks? How can governments ensure fair elections and protect their citizens from political manipulation? How can political architectures – and voters – become more resilient?

Jeh Johnson, Partner, Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison; former United States Secretary of Homeland Security (2013–17) Amy Pope, Partner, Schillings; former United States Deputy Homeland Security Advisor (2015–17) Chair: Emily Taylor, Editor, Journal of Cyber Policy, and Associate Fellow, International Security, Chatham House

Session 3 | Fear the Future? What’s Next for International Trade This session will be taking place in ‘Hansom Hall’ Over the last few decades, the rise of globalization and international trade has boosted growth throughout the world and lifted hundreds of millions into an emerging if fragile middle class. However, foreign competition has devastated many communities across the developed world, leading to a significant backlash against trade and increasing support for protectionism. Policy-makers in the West are rethinking their trade, investment and industrial policies to address concerns about the future of jobs, living Page 4 of 7

standards and communities. This will inevitably affect prospects for current and future trade agreements across the world. What would the implications of a retreat from trade be on global growth? To what extent are emerging economies still dependent on an export- and investment-led growth model? Or will the entire trade debate be eclipsed by advances in automation and artificial intelligence over the next several years?

Tatiana Lacerda Prazeres, Senior Advisor to the Director-General, World Trade Organization Dan Mobley, Global Corporate Relations Director, Diageo Miriam Sapiro, Partner, Finsbury; Acting US Trade Representative (2013); Deputy US Trade Representative (2009–13) Duncan DeVille, SVP, Global Head of Financial Crimes Compliance, Western Union Chair: Jim Rollo, Deputy Director, UK Trade Policy Observatory, and Associate Fellow, Global Economy and Finance, Chatham House

1500 – 1530 Refreshments

BREAKOUT SESSIONS – ROUND TWO 1530 – 1645

Session 4 | New Business Models: Disruption and Opportunity This session will be taking place in ‘Hansom Hall’ Technological innovations and developing digital industries are driving new, disruptive business models. Governments and companies are hoping that these will deliver much needed productivity gains and innovative approaches to social and environmental sustainability. However, there is a danger that the societal costs of these new models will outweigh their benefits. Automation and ‘jobless growth’ accelerated by breakthroughs in artificial intelligence have the potential to increase productivity at the cost of greater inequality between regions and across income groups, and regulators may prove unable to keep up with the pace of change. How can policy-makers address the tension between the business benefits and social disruption of new business models? How can industrial strategies ensure that technology is sustainable for people, the planet and profit margins? How can institutions best adapt?

Kenneth Cukier, Senior Editor, Digital, The Economist, and co-author, Big Data Vincent Pang , President, Western Europe, Huawei Penny Naas, Vice-President and Managing Director, International Public Affairs and Sustainability, UPS Chair: Tanya Beckett, Journalist, BBC

Session 5 | Agendas and Agency: Africa’s Influence in an Uncertain International Order This session will be taking place in the ‘Ladies Smoking Room’ In recent decades, sub-Saharan Africa has been spurred by strong economic growth, successful reform efforts and the consolidation of democratic principles in many parts of the continent. This had led to governments and organizations across the region taking increasing ownership over responses to the challenges the region faces as well as becoming more vocal on global issues. However, important questions remain about the agendas that individual African governments and the region as a whole will pursue. This is all the more acute in the face of current pressures on the regional and international order from populism, protectionism and the weakness of commodity prices.

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What is the role of African actors in this shifting international order? How can they seek to influence change on a global level while ensuring they successfully navigate their own economic headwinds at home?

Carlos Lopes*, Professor, Graduate School of Development Policy, University of Cape Town; former Executive Secretary, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (2012–16) Mmasekgoa Masire-Mwamba, former Deputy Secretary-General, The Commonwealth (2008–14) Chair: Alex Vines OBE, Research Director, Area Studies and International Law; Head, Africa Programme, Chatham House

Session 6 | Lessons from Latin America: Conflict and Coexistence This session will be taking place in ‘The Quarters’ From populism and authoritarianism through to socialism, Latin America has experienced an extreme range of political systems in its recent history. Uniquely, despite the incongruity between these systems, they have coexisted in close proximity. Is the development and coexistence of competing systems in a relatively small area a result of something inherent to the region, or does it presage where world order is headed globally? What lessons can the rest of the world learn from Latin American politics? And how will politics in Latin America change in response to developments in the rest of the world?

Elena Lazarou, Assistant Professor, Center for International Relations, Getulio Vargas Foundation Maria Teresa Ronderos, Director, Independent Journalism, Open Society Foundations Atila Roque, Director Brazil, Ford Foundation Chair: Victor Bulmer-Thomas CMG OBE, Associate Fellow, US and the Americas Programme, Chatham House

1645 – 1700 Short break

PLENARY SESSION THREE | HOW CAN STATES NAVIGATE THE GLOBAL DISRUPTION? TAKEAWAYS FROM DAY ONE 1700 – 1800 In the morning of this first day of the 2017 London Conference, participants explored whether world order is under threat as a result of the crisis in US leadership and the loss of public trust in political institutions. In the afternoon, participants looked at what actors in some regions (Africa, Latin America, the Middle East) and sectors (business, technology, trade policy) are doing to adjust. This panel asks four individuals with distinct regional perspectives to reflect and discuss with conference participants whether the drivers of fragmentation or the responses of human ingenuity, institutional resilience and technological innovation will have the upper hand in the imminent future.

Joseph Chin Yong Liow, Dean and Professor of Comparative and International Politics, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Pawel Świeboda, Deputy Head of the European Political Strategy Centre, European Commission Alexei Chekunkov, Chief Executive Officer, Far East and Baikal Region Development Fund Mina Al-Oraibi, Editor-in-Chief, The National Chair: Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House

1800 Close of day one

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TUESDAY 24 OCTOBER

0815 Registration and refreshments

OPEN ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSIONS 0830 – 0945

A | Why does Ukraine’s trajectory matter for Europe and the whole post-Soviet space? Host: Orysia Lutsevych, Manager, Ukraine Forum, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House

B | What are the challenges tomorrow’s leaders see themselves confronting, and what capacities do they need to address them? Host: Andrew Swan, Assistant Head, Queen Elizabeth II Academy for Leadership in International Affairs, accompanied by Academy Fellows

C | Rethinking the state in the Middle East Host: Neil Quilliam, Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House

D | Developing businesses of scale in sub-Saharan Africa Host: Chris Vandome, Research Analyst, Africa Programme, Chatham House

0945 Convene in Hansom Hall

PLENARY SESSION FOUR | THE LIBERAL ECONOMIC ORDER: WILL THE CENTRE HOLD? 1000 – 1115 Since the 1970s, growing levels of international trade and investment and deepening global economic integration have been the hallmarks of an expanding liberal economic order. This has encouraged companies to create global supply chains and governments to compete with each other to attract capital, jobs and technology. Today, however, in the wake of the financial crisis, many Western countries, including the Anglo-Saxon champions of this order, face intense popular criticism that economic globalization is rewarding only a small group of political and economic elites, and creating insecurity for the rest. China’s rise as a peer competitor in value-added sectors under a more statist model, the growing disruption caused by new technologies and the increasingly destructive impacts of a warming climate make this a highly uncertain time for the liberal economic order.

Will the Trump administration’s desire to rewrite bilateral and multilateral trade deals be seen by others as a tactical adjustment or a structural shift to a more zero-sum and mercantilist international economy? Might we see a rise in regulatory competition between the EU, US and an increasingly confident China? What steps can Western countries take to regain competitiveness? Do they also need stronger defences against the practices of more state-led economic models? Are developing and middle- income countries ready for the challenge of disruptive technologies and a warming climate?

Amitav Acharya, Distinguished Professor of International Relations, American University James Manyika, Director, McKinsey Global Institute Vicky Pryce, Chief Economic Adviser, Centre for Economics and Business Research Chair: Evan Davis, Presenter, Newsnight, BBC Page 7 of 7

1115 – 1145 Refreshments

IN CONVERSATION WITH ARMANDO IANNUCCI 1145 – 1245 Armando Iannucci, Writer, Producer, and Director, The Thick of It, Veep, Saturday Night Armistice, The Day Today and The Death of Stalin Chair: John Pienaar, Deputy Political Editor, BBC News

1245 – 1345 Lunch

CLOSING KEYNOTE 1345 – 1415 HE Adel al-Jubeir, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Saudi Arabia Chair: Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House

PLENARY SESSION FIVE | ALTERNATIVE VIEWS ON FUTURE WORLD ORDER 1415 – 1515 The future of world order is uncertain. With the US looking more inward, will other large countries seek to define or dominate separate regional orders, whether in Asia, Latin America or the Middle East? Will smaller countries work together to promote international norms and agreements? Can the UN acquire greater legitimacy and efficacy in this context, or will power relationships set the terms of international affairs?

Four individuals with experience of international policy at senior levels will share their perspectives of the sort of world order they would like to see, and the steps they expect or believe should be taken to bring this about.

Alexey Pushkov, Senator from Perm Krai, Russia; Chairman, State Duma Committee on International Affairs (2011–16) Hina Rabbani Khar, former Foreign Minister of Pakistan (2011–13) HE Lana Nusseibeh, Ambassador and Permanent Representative of the United Arab Emirates to the United Nations Chair: Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House

CLOSING SESSION | LESSONS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE FUTURE 1515 – 1545 Robin Niblett, Director, Chatham House

1545 End of conference