UNCERTAIN TIMES: Re-imagining universities for new, sustainable futures

Gerald Wangenge-Ouma & Tawana Kupe

AUGUST 2020 CONTENTS

Introduction...... 1

Economically challenging times...... 2

Institutional vulnerability...... 3

Possible scenarios...... 5

Scenario A – Cry South Africa Scenario...... 5

Scenario B – Jive South Africa Scenario...... 6

Scenario C – the Passing Cloud Scenario...... 6

Scenario D – the Light Bulb Scenario...... 6

Charting a new future...... 7

Re-imagining higher education in South Africa...... 7

Remedying historical disadvantage...... 9

From emergency remote learning to the promise of online education and blended learning ...... 10

Blended learning...... 11

Collaborative alliances...... 12

Dynamic institutional capabilities...... 13

Recommendations for USAf...... 15

References...... inside back cover Introduction

Universities operate in environments that previous times when universities addressed are increasingly unstable, unpredictable resource dependence difficulties by, amongst and competitive. The COVID-19 pandemic others, diversifying their sources of revenue; is the latest in a series of disruptive forces essentially shifting resource dependence that universities have experienced in the from unreliable sources to stable sources, past several decades. Digital transformation, the current circumstances are such that financial crises, demands for life-long learning universities have to navigate fragmented and new forms of knowledge, skills and funding streams as all funding sources will competences, are some of the major drivers likely be impacted by the pandemic and the that have made change and continuous re- associated economic downturn. All university invention inevitable in order for universities systems around the world are experiencing to remain relevant, competitive and these challenges, to varying extents. sustainable. Digital transformation, captured by the phenomenon commonly referred to The unfolding of the COVID-19 pandemic in as the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), South Africa is interwoven into an existing represents profound advancements in socioeconomic context ridden with poverty science and technology and has important and deep, unsustainable inequalities. Deep implications for society, governments, inequalities amongst institutions and within businesses, industry and higher education institutions continue unabated more than a institutions. These advancements, their quarter of a century since the democratic promises and perils, provide an overarching transition. The impact of apartheid-era backdrop for re-imagining the on-going underfunding and underdevelopment of transformation of society, the future of work those universities that were historically and professions, and the evolving role of designed to serve the educational needs of universities as knowledge institutions. black South Africans, continues to shape the institutional typologies within the higher Financial resources are among the most education system. The impact of COVID-19 critical assets that universities depend on has stretched to breakpoint levels these to accomplish their important roles and to inequality fault-lines. As we contemplate thrive as effective and vibrant organisations. the future of higher education a priority has This makes it essential for universities to to be the emergence of a system that is acquire and maintain resources, and sustain designed and funded to effectively function an overall healthy financial condition to as universities and in particular, to enhance achieve their goals. South African universities the intellectual and social development of depend on three main sources of funding, the students at those institutions. namely, state funding, tuition fees and third stream income. Universities were already A key characteristic of the disruptive forces experiencing sustainability challenges confronting universities and society at large pre-COVID-19, amongst them, declining is profound uncertainty. The management of, state funding (in real terms), challenges and response to, this uncertainty, however, associated with #FeesMustFall student cannot be reduced to risk management protests, insourcing of services, government procedures and protocols. Universities have regulation of tuition fees, rising student to be innovative and proactive, they have debt, weak economic growth and a highly to strengthen their capacity for sensing unstable currency. The COVID-19 pandemic emerging developments and dealing with has aggravated these challenges. Unlike in unknowns and, ultimately, orchestrating

HE sustainability – discussion document | 1 new directions and pathways towards the Many state-owned enterprises are emerging futures. The latter is the focus of performing dismally and will continue to be a this discussion paper, which has two main drain on the fiscus for the foreseeable future. parts. The first part examines the various The public wage bill has grown unsustainably challenges confronting higher education and currently averages 35.4 per cent of institutions in South Africa, with a specific total consolidated expenditure. Meanwhile, focus on economic challenges in the context unemployment has increased, reaching a of the COVID-19 pandemic and the second record 30.1% in the first quarter of 2020. part explores various possible response trajectories to these challenges. Figure 1 shows the country’s GDP growth compared to unemployment growth.

Economically Figure 1: GDP growth and unemployment challenging times

South Africa has over the past decade experienced weak economic growth and is currently in a recession. The realisation of revenue collection targets remains a challenge due to plummeting tax revenue. A tax revenue underperformance of R304.1 billion is expected in 2020/21 (National Treasury 2020a). At the same time, public debt has been soaring and corruption, both in the public and private sectors, has become endemic. Debt-service costs have been the fastest-growing area of spending, rising from 9.8 per cent of main budget revenue Source: National Treasury (2020a) in 2010/11 to 15.2 per cent in 2019/20. The country’s gross loan debt is projected The rand has not been spared by the country’s to rise to 81 per cent of GDP in the current economic challenges and remains a rather fiscal year (National Treasury, 2020a). volatile currency compared to comparable Government is now spending more revenue developing-country currencies. In 2019 than it is collecting. the rand’s exchange value fell by 1.9% in real terms (National Treasury, 2020b). The As a result of weak economic growth, the rand’s depreciation has several implications state has, over the past five years, increased for universities. On the negative side, it taxes to reduce revenue deficit. The scope increases the cost of library acquisitions and for further tax increases has, however, subscriptions and research equipment, most narrowed as typified by the decision not to of which is imported. On the other hand, raise additional revenue from tax proposals it might have a positive knock-on effect for 2020/21 (National Treasury, 2020b). In on recruitment of fee-paying international any case, South Africa does not have a big students due to increased affordability of pool of high income earners and is already South Africa’s higher education. disproportionately dependent on a small group of tax payers - 125 000 high-income The country’s economic outlook has been earners pay 20% of the income tax collected made worse by the COVID-19 pandemic. by the South African Revenue Services The National Treasury (2020a) projects that (SARS). the economy will contract by 7.2% in 2020.

2 | HE sustainability – discussion document The pandemic has triggered accelerated job levels, significant effort will be directed losses, low economic activity, the collapse towards spending restraint as projected in of many companies and businesses and a the Supplementary Budget. Overall, South general state of uncertainty. In response Africa’s economic outlook is dire. “Public to the devastation caused by COVID-19, finances are dangerously overstretched” government unveiled in April 2020 a R500 (National Treasury, 2020a: 22). The country billion relief package which was to be has essentially not recovered from the 2018 funded partly by reprioritising R130 billions economic crisis and, thanks to COVID-19 of expenditure from existing budgets, and and other factors, it is reasonable to predict borrowing from domestic and international that the persistent low growth (see Figure lenders. The Supplementary Budget tabled 1) will endure for at least another decade. on 24 June 2020, however, provides for a This reality has significant implications for budget of R145 billion for COVID-19-related universities. expenditure of which R109 billion will be funded through the suspension of baseline allocations and reprioritisations. The budget Institutional vulnerability reduces planned expenditure by R230 billion over the next two years (2021/22 and Universities are susceptible to larger 2022/23). economic and societal trends; large shifts in subsidy levels and other government funding Budget allocations for higher education for targeted at higher education institutions, 2020/21, as with many other allocations, increasing vulnerability of poor and working- were cut as a result of the reprioritisations: class families and the challenges in raising infrastructure allocation for universities was third-stream income. Universities must reduced by R500 million while the block navigate fragmented funding streams, grant was reduced by R382.59 million weather economic fluctuations and contend (1.07%) (Treasury, 2020a; DHET 2020). with a variety of changes to traditional Equally, the budget for the Department of revenue sources. Unstable environments Science and Innovation (DSI) was decreased result in organisational turbulence. When by 16%, which is drastic. This cut will affect resources are in a state of major flux universities directly. DSI plans to reduce the financial sustainability is compromised number of postgraduate bursaries from 9, and organisational stability is threatened. 300 to 6, 000 and PhD grants from 3,100 to Organisational vulnerability occurs (Pfeffer & 2, 000. The reduced funding will also affect Salancik, 2003). allocations to research chairs and centres of 1 excellence. Given the country’s perilous economic situation, in the context of many competing From the foregoing, it is clear that without demands on a depressed fiscus, a significant faster economic growth, South Africa cannot increase in public funding for universities, in raise the revenue needed to fund various, the foreseeable future, is unlikely. Table 1 competing, public expenditure priorities, shows that South African universities have unless it continues to borrow. It is plausible historically been underfunded in terms to conclude that, with slow economic growth of per capita growth in real terms (block and borrowing reaching unsustainable grant). It should, however, be noted that from 2016, following #FeesMustFall student 1 https://researchprofessionalnews.com/rr-news- protests, public funding for indigent students africa-south-2020-7-this-is-the-butcher-s-bill- has increased, resulting in significant for-south-africa-s-science-cuts/ improvements in per student funding. This

HE sustainability – discussion document | 3 spending improvement, while welcome, The trend captured in Table 1 suggests that, has resulted in fewer resources being made in the context of the economic challenges available to support university operations discussed in the previous section, future (block grant allocations) and enrolment allocations will be characterised by potentially expansion. steeper real declines.

Table 1: Block grant allocations to universities from 2004/5 to 2014/15

Block Block grant for Per capita grant for universities in real universities in real terms in nominal Growth in terms HEMIS using FTE Per capita terms nominal (R'million) Growth Student students growth in (R'million) terms Inflation ( C) = in real FTEs (Rands) real terms Year (A) (%) (CPI)* deflator (B) (A/B) terms (%) (D) (C/D) (%) 2004/05 8 568 - 2.0% 1.00 8 568 - 505 473 16 950 - 2005/06 9 145 6.7% 3.6% 1.02 8 966 4.6% 500 931 17 899 5.6% 2006/07 9 956 8.9% 5.2% 1.06 9 421 5.1% 497 772 18 926 5.7% 2007/08 10 234 2.8% 8.1% 1.11 9 205 -2.3% 518 560 17 751 -6.2% 2008/09 11 550 12.9% 11.2% 1.20 9 614 4.4% 538 457 17 854 -0.6% 2009/10 12 701 10% 6.9% 1.34 9 511 -1.1% 569 708 16 694 -6.5% 2010/11 14 533 14.4% 3.8% 1.43 10 176 7.0% 600 002 16 960 1.6% 2011/12 16 387 12.8% 5.6% 1.48 11 051 8.6% 628 409 17 586 3.7% 2012/13 17 434 6.4% 5.6% 1.57 11 134 0.7% 634 548 17 546 -0.2% 2013/14 18 439 5.8% 5.8% 1.65 11 151 0.2% 665 856 16 747 -4.6% 2014/15 19 561 6.1% 5.6% 1.75 11 181 0.3% 668 705 16 721 -0.2% Net % change in nominal 128.3% Net real change in block grant 30.5% Net change in per capita -1.35% terms in block grant from FTE student allocation 2004/5 to 2014/15

Source: DHET (2015)

A convergence of recent developments has COVID-19, in addition to its broader impact put the financial sustainability of South African on the country’s and global economy, is universities to the test. This vulnerability was similarly having an impact on many elements perhaps more pronounced in 2016 when the of universities’ funding, inter alia: decision not to increase tuition fees resulted in a) Costs related to on-line teaching (learning a number of universities becoming financially management systems, purchases of distressed. An analysis by the Council on Higher computers/devices for students and Education (CHE, 2016) projected that 19 of the staff, data, etc.). 26 universities could have become financially unstable by 2018 if the 0% increase of tuition b) Expectation from students and parents fees was extended to 2017. The regulation of that there will be a reduction in tuition tuition fees, which started in 2016, brought fees and rebates for accommodation. to an end the non-interventionist policy c) Fixed expenditure on student residences environment with autonomy to set tuition fees, in the context of point (b) above. which universities hitherto enjoyed. In 2016 tuition fees were frozen (0% fee increase) and d) Loss in revenue due to the cancellation of in 2017 and 2018, increases were capped at on-campus revenue-generating courses 8%, while in 2019 increases were capped at and programmes. 5.3%.

4 | HE sustainability – discussion document e) Ongoing financial hardship for families Possible scenarios and loss of income as a result of retrenchments resulting in higher The foregoing analysis depicts a highly student debt levels - this is real in the uncertain future for universities. As we have context of stretched public finances and observed, the financial distress experienced a battered economy. Financial hardship by many universities following the various will require increased financial support. interventions triggered by the #FeesMustFall student protests suggest that many South f) Decline in third stream income due, African universities are financially vulnerable. inter alia, to dramatic declines in The dire state of the economy, COVID-19 and financial markets and plummeting possible future trajectories of both is likely to economies. These will affect returns on result in a number of possible scenarios. investments and will impact on donors, including alumni, who will face financial Scenario A – Cry South Africa challenges of their own. Scenario g) Research funding from private or government sources may decline. The worst of these scenarios is one of economic collapse - the cry South h) Enrolments, especially for international Africa scenario - where, inter alia, the postgraduate students, may decline. current economic recession deepens, i) Costs related to mandatory screening the COVID-19 pandemic lasts longer and testing of students and staff. with waves of infection lasting through j) Costs related to purchase of personal 2021, the debt crisis and unemployment protective equipment (PPEs) – masks, levels aggravate, the rand continues gloves, sanitisers, etc. to weaken and some public-sector institutions collapse. The implications k) Many universities are still grappling of this scenario for universities include with the effects of insourcing and a precipitous decline in state funding, other developments resulting from the freezing of tuition fees (0% fee increase), 2015/2016 student protests. decline in enrolments, increased inequity/inequality in access and The R1.85 billion requested by universities retention affecting mainly lower-income from DHET as part of their COVID-19 campus students due to increased financial readiness plans is indicative of the financial and other constraints (for example, implications of the pandemic for the sector. family obligations, unfavourable home DHET has already provided some COVID-19 circumstances, loss of support networks relief funding which will go some way in due to campus closures, etc.), a sharp alleviating the impact of the pandemic. This increase in student debt and continuation funding is, however, inadequate given the of remote emergency online teaching magnitude of the challenge. Further, the and learning in 2021. Large-scale COVID-19 relief funding is not additional retrenchments may have to be carried funding. It is derived from a reprioritisation out and some universities may become of existing university allocations. financially insolvent. This scenario is underpinned by stasis, decline and even despondency. It does not guarantee the continued existence of universities as vibrant knowledge institutions contributing to the transformation of society.

HE sustainability – discussion document | 5 Scenario B – Jive South Africa Scenario D – the Light Bulb Scenario Scenario

The other extreme scenario is one of The fourth scenario is a pragmatic unrealistic optimism – the jive South and realistically optimistic one - the Africa scenario – whereby the pandemic light bulb scenario - characterised by subsides quickly and the economy a decline in COVID-19 infections and experiences an upswing in 2021. In this deaths, adoption of both short-term and scenario, state funding for universities long-term economic reforms, modest is expected to increase in real terms, economic recovery and an end to the tuition fees can be increased in real jobs bloodbath. In this scenario, public terms (inflation plus), and third stream funding and third stream income are funding is expected to increase. expected to decline, but not to the extent that large-scale retrenchments are required to save costs. Managing Scenario C – the Passing Cloud the financial challenges will require Scenario prudent management of financial resources that combines careful cost The third scenario can be characterised management and strategies to find new as the passing cloud scenario whereby revenue sources: cost reduction and the current economic challenges and replacement, revenue diversification the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and entrepreneurialism. This scenario are short-lived. The impact of the is underpinned by innovation in terms latter will be exacerbated by economic of managing the current short-term and other challenges that pre-date challenges, but also imagining new, COVID-19. Those affected the most by transformative and resilient, futures. the pandemic, mainly small and medium Universities may need to rethink their size enterprises and low-to middle- current, conventional models, academic income families, will struggle to recover. and administrative structures, and In this scenario, government funding assess their financial health. It is also a of universities is expected to drop, scenario that would allow the university demand for funding from the National system to re-imagine a new future that Student Financial Aid Scheme (NSFAS) addresses inequity and inequality that will increase, student debt will also are legacies of both the past and the increase due to reduced family incomes, present. and tuition fees are likely to remain flat due to pressure against increases. The transition to emergency remote teaching and learning is expected to be short- lived but will require modifications to instructional operations and assessment modalities. The implication of this scenario is that things may quickly return to the pre-COVID-19 era except for expenses generated to address the various impacts of the pandemic.

6 | HE sustainability – discussion document Charting a new future

As open systems, universities interact changes. One of the critiques of the university with their environments and are affected in South Africa, especially in the recent by developments in these environments. debates on decolonisation, is that the post- To secure long-term success and vitality, 1994 university naturalised its colonial and universities must adjust to the changes in apartheid design, which to some observers, their organisational environment. Some of renders it ill-suited and unresponsive to its the changes and challenges are short term, contemporary conjuncture. but some require a re-thinking of various key elements of the higher education enterprise. The #FeesMustFall and other ‘Fallist’ student Insularity is not an option. Research shows protests brought into sharp relief the need that turbulence – for example the student to continuously re-imagine the country’s protests in 2015 and 2016 and COVID-19 - higher education and proactively align it and its resultant uncertainty on individuals with evolving societal realities. In retrospect, and organisations may lead to feelings the sector’s response to concerns regarding of crisis, anxiety and stress, which may tuition fee levels, prior to the 2015/2016 negatively affect performance (Cameron, student protests, could be described as Kim & Whetten, 1987). Universities, like defensive, insular and out of step with the other organisations, abhor turbulence and broader socio-economic contexts in which uncertainty. Uncertain and disruptive times South African universities are located. call for strategic and innovative responses, Following the then Department of Education’s both short-term and long-term, to ensure proposal to regulate tuition fees in 2007, institutional stability, sustainability and universities responded by maintaining the vitality. status quo (HESA, 2008). Tuition fee levels continued to rise but were not matched by The sections that follow identify, in broad a concomitant increase in financial aid and overview, possible response trajectories. household incomes, leading to a political and regulatory response. Re-imagining higher education in South Africa The scale and scope of the economic crisis facing the country and universities, Universities throughout history have been the worsening of existing challenges by shaped by major developments in society, the COVID-19 pandemic and the various amongst them, colonialism, world wars, disruptive trends circumscribing universities, apartheid, scientific and technological demand that we re-imagine the university innovations, internationalisation and system, pursue bold responses to globalisation. These phenomena, and their enhance our sustainability, relevance and particular historical moments, have had contribution to the country’s socio-economic a significant impact on various aspects advancement. The idea is not to prescribe of universities; including, their design, possible interventions, but to explore curricula, models of teaching and research, alternative futures; explore other horizons societal roles and their relationship with of possibility and possible interventions the state, society and communities. The towards these different futures. current model of higher education in South Africa comes from a particular history and COVID-19 has many negative implications its evolution through various epochs, mainly for higher education which will reverberate colonialism, apartheid and the post-1994 long after the pandemic has been contained.

HE sustainability – discussion document | 7 Equally, the pandemic has silver linings. It to the role of higher education in enabling can serve as a springboard for re-thinking the lives of dignity and purpose, achieving future of higher education and strengthen the dimensions that are central to creating a pact between universities, the state, business, just and humane society, and the fulfilment society and communities. Many universities of human beings and their communities are involved in COVID-19 research; (Leibowitz, 2012; Locatelli; 2018). The loss inter alia, vaccine development, drug of jobs and general workplace insecurity development, transmission, epidemiology of and closure of universities, amongst other the disease and its socio-economic impact. COVID-19-related developments, is a strong This research presents an opportunity for reminder of the crucial role of higher education universities to restore and strengthen trust to society, communities and individual lives. in research and expertise and mobilise When universities closed, many students funding support, which has been declining. had to leave their campus residences. These It is also an opportunity for universities to residences are essentially home to especially demonstrate that they are responsive to the indigent students and students from contexts in which they are embedded, are unstable family environments. For many interconnected with society and are alive to students, campus facilities are their primary their critical role of contributing to the well- sources of meals, health care and support being and advancement of South Africa, services, including academic and mental Africa and the world, by pursuing research health counselling. Campus life generally that makes a positive impact on areas of provides experiences that support students’ great societal need. academic commitments. Universities are thus called upon to strengthen their The pandemic has also emphasised the commitment to serve the public good; act value of collaboration and partnership: as a bulwark against inequality by expanding international collaboration, transdisciplinary access and eliminating differential success collaboration, inter-university collaboration and graduation rates based on race, gender and collaboration between universities, and class, and supporting post-COVID re- government, industry, business and construction by, amongst others, expanding communities. Collaboration is not antithetical opportunities for skills development and to competitiveness, institutional autonomy lifelong learning. or differentiation. It is essential for post- pandemic reconstruction, research excellence Universities, however, should be supported to (as demonstrated by ongoing collaborative strengthen their public good commitments. research to understand and defeat the As discussed in previous sections, state virus), pedagogical innovations, effective funding of universities has not kept pace with responsiveness to the various disruptive both enrolment growth and the rising costs trends impacting higher education and of higher education. The financial outlook of communities and navigating the complex, universities is generally negative and has been ever-evolving and, at times, contradictory made worse by COVID-19. At the same time, relationship between higher education and family incomes, public funding, tuition fees its key publics. and income from non-governmental sources are expected to fall. This reality will weaken The concept of ‘public good’ has become a universities and undermine their public good key lexicon in contemporary higher education role. Inequalities in access and retention debates. Arguments about higher education are likely to increase, affecting mostly for the, and as a, public good make reference students from marginalised communities.

8 | HE sustainability – discussion document This context calls for a re-investment in higher The high levels of inequality in the country education and justifies the need for stimulus and the high number of students from funding for universities, without which some poor and working class families call for universities may face an existential threat. It a student funding model that does not is probably unrealistic for universities to bet create an affordability crisis, both for on a stimulus package given the country’s students and the state (public finances). weak economy, tight fiscal constraints and It is probably an opportune moment to revisit the increasingly unsustainable debt burden. the recommendations of the Presidential Given this context, there is a need to explore Commission of Inquiry into Higher Education other options. and Training and revamp the financing of higher education to guarantee access, The main finding of the Presidential affordability and sustainability. Commission of Inquiry into Higher Education and Training (also referred to as the Fees Commission), which was established in Remedying historical January 2016 and completed its work in mid- disadvantage 2017 was that: "… [T]here is insufficient Before the demise of apartheid in 1994, financial capacity in the state to provide South Africa’s higher education landscape totally free higher education and training was characterised by institutions which to all who are unable to finance their own were differentiated along the lines of race education, let alone to all students, whether and ethnicity. These institutions, usually in need or not…".2 Nevertheless, the referred to as historically advantaged government implemented fee-free education (white) institutions (HAIs) and historically for students from poor and working class disadvantaged (black) institutions (HDIs), families beginning 2018. The National were profoundly shaped by apartheid planning Student Financial Aid Scheme (NSFAS), which and by the respective functions assigned to hitherto provided bursaries and income- them in relation to the reproduction of the contingent loans, became a bursary scheme apartheid social order (Badat, 2004, CHE, for students from families with an annual 2004). In terms of this differentiation, HAIs income under R 350 000. It is estimated were advantaged relative to HDIs (University that about 90% of university students are of Fort Hare, Limpopo, Venda, Western eligible for fee-free higher education (World Cape, Zululand, Walter Sisulu University, Bank, 2019). Several analyses have shown Mangosuthu University of Technology and that fee-free higher education will result in Sefako Makgatho Health Sciences University) unsustainable pressures on the country’s with regards to financial resources that were public finances, especially as enrolments made available to each institution. Against grow. A report by the World Bank (2019) this context, the post-1994 higher education shows that fee-free higher education will landscape can be characterised as a result in funding for higher education to collection of broadly two sets of universities: increase from 1.3% of GDP in 2017/2018 to relatively well-resourced universities that 2.3% in 2021/22. are located mainly in major urban areas and under-resourced universities located in marginalised areas, in other words, a 2 Commission of Inquiry into Higher Education ‘system’ of entrenched historical inequalities. and Training (2017) Report of the Commission The majority of HDIs remain underdeveloped of Inquiry into Higher Education and Training. Pretoria: Department of Justice. relative to HAUs and continue to experience financial difficulties.

HE sustainability – discussion document | 9 The Report of the Ministerial Committee for From emergency remote learning to the Review of the Funding of Universities the promise of online education and (DHET, 2013) provides a detailed account blended learning of the challenges faced by HDIs. These include, a history of underfunding, location After it became clear that universities would in isolated and poor rural areas, poor state remain closed for an extended period of of financial health, a general lack of physical time following the declaration of a national infrastructure, laboratories, lecture theatres, state of emergency and a lockdown model libraries and student housing, and governance consisting of different risk levels, universities challenges. The location of these institutions had no option but to make plans for the in marginalised areas has a number of continuation of academic programmes implications, amongst them, higher costs of through emergency remote learning. Given procuring supplies and services, insufficient that the majority of South Africa’s 26 public and unreliable municipal services and universities are contact institutions, many constrains possibilities for generating third of them do not have established capabilities stream income. Some of these challenges also for online education, the preferred model for apply, to various extents, to institutions that emergency remote learning. The country’s were merged with an HDI or incorporated an only dedicated distance education university HDI campus. These institutions essentially – University of South Africa (UNISA) – has not have historically disadvantaged campuses. fared better either. A common lamentation The unique needs of these campuses pose by many universities concerned the absence a number of challenges with a bearing on of an effective model in the country against sustainability. which they could fashion their online provisioning. However, some universities It is critical that the funding of universities have been developing or experimenting with addresses the plight of HDIs to ensure that a hybrid or blended learning model whereby they provide an excellent education to the contact sessions in traditional lectures, many students from disadvantaged socio- seminars, laboratories and practicals are economic backgrounds who attend these supplemented with online learning platforms, institutions. The Ministerial Committee in which additional activities, notes and other referred to above made several useful learning resources are provided online. This recommendations for addressing the model has served these institutions well with financial challenges confronting HDIs, some the transition to emergency remote learning. of which, for example, the introduction of an HDI Development Grant, are being The migration to emergency remote learning implemented. However, funding is only a has sharpened existing socio-economic necessary but not sufficient requirement for fault lines in South Africa’s higher education resolving the challenges confronting HDIs. and society at large, mainly due to existing There are many lessons that can be learned differential institutional resources in the sector from international experience regarding and students’ socio-economic circumstances enhancing the quality and sustainability of which hamper their experience of the benefits universities located in peripheral areas, inter of online education. A number of universities alia, land grant universities in the United are struggling with this transition mainly States of America (USA), civic universities due to lack of the requisite information in Germany and England and successful technology infrastructure, inadequate regional universities in various parts of the expertise for online pedagogies and inability world. to provide computers and data to their

10 | HE sustainability – discussion document students. The historical resource differentials There are many uncertainties regarding, for in the sector have significant implications: example, the return of students from their they accentuate existing equity challenges, home countries after the pandemic, the impair the ability of under-resourced possible imposition of exacting travel and universities to provide excellent education visa regulations that may negatively affect and undermine their public good role. These free travel of people and extended border challenges have festered over time and closures and travel restrictions that some the need for the sector and government countries have implemented in response to to fashion interventions to mitigate this the pandemic. The high cost of international situation cannot be overemphasised. There education in the major recipient countries is a real possibility that some institutions will (for example USA, Australia and Britain), be permanently left behind. in the context of the economic devastation wrought by the pandemic, may cause price- Blended learning sensitive students to explore high quality and affordable alternatives such as those Notwithstanding the challenges with the offered by South Africa. migration to emergency remote teaching and learning, there is room for a hybrid or We propose a hybrid or blended teaching blended education strategy that is aligned and learning strategy that is underpinned with the South African reality. The idea is not by differentiation whereby institutions to pursue online education as an alternative build their strategy around their existing to contact higher education or as an antidote institutional strengths. Patterns of to the sector’s resource challenges, but to differentiation in higher education are optimise the affordances of multiple delivery shaped by expansion (including expansion modes. COVID-19 has thus presented an in the number of higher education providers, opportunity for the sector to build on the in this case online education providers), the current momentum and develop online need to provide access to diverse student education further, embrace it as a delivery populations, the need for institutions to mode (quality is not intrinsically linked to perform functions in their areas of strength the delivery mode. What is required is a so as to engender excellence and the need pedagogy that leads to excellence) and to optimise resources. Perhaps the most utilise it to expand access as envisaged by important driver of differentiation is the need the National Development Plan (NDP) and to address heterogeneous societal needs the White Paper for Post-School Education such as providing access to different kinds and Training, which set an enrolment target of students and production of a wide range of 1.6 million for South African universities by of skills. In this scenario, all the 25 contact 2030, and make higher education affordable universities would remain predominantly for many South Africans. contact, but may offer some programmes, for example, postgraduate professional In addition, the hybrid or blended model programmes, through online platforms. with a well-developed online dimension provides opportunities for South Africa to All universities should consider adopting tap into the burgeoning re-skilling and life- and scaling up blended learning because of long learning markets, and enhance its its quality enhancing potential, expansion international footprint. The impact of the of access and other benefits related to pandemic on international student mobility managing costs. The various blended will likely be pronounced and protracted. learning models – rotation, flipped classroom

HE sustainability – discussion document | 11 and flex – provide multiple possibilities for Similarly, there is a need for a sector-wide innovation. For example, the rotation model strategy on the development of the new where students alternate between contact generation of digital technologies such as classes and online learning could lead to cost cloud computing, machine learning, virtual reduction, especially for commuter students reality and augmented reality. Through these and also reduce demand for university technologies, immersive and personalised accommodation. The flex model, where the education can be provided online at scale. majority of instruction takes place online These will not only improve the student with contact sessions as needed, is ideal for experience, quality of education and the working students who can only study on a online experience, but also lower the costs part-time basis with contact sessions being of higher education provision. Related is the organised in block sessions. The various use of virtual reality technologies to develop blended learning models have implications virtual laboratories, which can be shared by for tuition fees and subsidy. The funding various universities. These technologies are framework, however, provides wide latitude cost-effective compared to the development for universities to adopt various blended of physical laboratories; they eliminate space learning models. For subsidy purposes, constraints and can be used to complement a contact programme (undergraduate existing physical laboratories or as stand- programmes and honours) can have up to alones. Virtual laboratories are even more 70% of its credits derived from non-contact appropriate for ensuring research continuity face-to-face sessions. during disruptions such as those occasioned by the COVID-19 pandemic. As mentioned earlier, the transition to remote emergency online teaching and learning has Collaborative alliances revealed infrastructure shortfalls and other challenges. We argue that addressing these Collaborative alliances are inter- infrastructure challenges – access to digital organisational dependencies. Their formation devices, stable and reliable access to internet is a strategy that organisations use to cope connectivity, access to and affordability of with the turbulence and complexity of mobile data bundles - requires a sector- their environments. Collaborative alliances wide strategy, as opposed to fragmented, are usually employed in situations where individual, institutional interventions. An unilateral organisational action may not important strategy in this regard should fix the problem or will not yield optimal include the development of a clear national returns (Gray & Wood, 1991). Collaborative strategy for hybrid or blended education and alliances have several advantages, including the mobilisation of a collaborative tripartite gaining access to new markets, sharing of effort involving telecommunications research and development, learning new companies, relevant government entities skills, bolstering capacity and long-term and universities to develop the requisite sustainability. infrastructure that can be used by all universities and ensure affordable access Examples of collaborative alliances in to the internet by universities and other South Africa’s higher education include the educational institutions. Another area of South African Technology Network (SATN)/ collaboration is the development of teaching Technological HE Network South Africa and learning materials within the broader (THENSA), the Cape Higher Education context of the Open Education Resource Consortium (CHEC), Tertiary Education and (OER) movement. Research Network of South Africa (TENET),

12 | HE sustainability – discussion document Gauteng Research Triangle and partnerships as unsustainable. Enrolments in these which a number of universities have with programmes have declined and neither can Higher Ed Partners South Africa (HEPSA), their postgraduate and research programmes an online programme manager (OPM), be described as robust. Several, similar, which universities have contracted with unsustainable programmes can be found to manage their online programmes. The across various universities, some of which company markets these programmes and are in close proximity. Whilst universities are recruits students for universities in return for autonomous and operate in a competitive a share of the tuition fees paid by students. environment, the possibility of voluntarily The partnerships with HEPSA show that the merging these programmes, building scale scope for collaborative alliances is broad. and turning them into centres of excellence, However, the idea of a private company is worth considering. The challenge of sharing a portion of the tuition fees paid unsustainable programmes can also be by students, while being responsible for approached in the context of differentiation student recruitment, might be viewed as where universities focus on their strengths problematic. Given the incentive to maximise instead of spreading themselves thin, earnings by recruiting many students, especially in fields in which they cannot claim there is a possibility that the company’s excellence. recruiters may misrepresent programmes to entice many students to enrol. Universities, Dynamic institutional capabilities therefore, have to guard against developing dependencies that permit private, for-profit As mentioned in the introduction section, entities to wield any influence on academic universities are experiencing dramatic decisions or compromise the integrity of changes in their external environment. academic programmes. These changes are compounded by equally complex internal challenges, amongst them, Related to collaborative alliances are shared obsolete organisational structures, lack of services. All universities run a number of skilled personnel, violent student protests, business functions which are critical for aggressive trade unions, unsustainable their operational efficiency. These activities demands for salary increases and increasing are generally identical across all the penetration of party politics into student universities. Many of them do no accrue politics and trade unions, often leading any distinctiveness or special advantage to to party rivalries on university campuses, individual universities. These activities are with the potential to cause instability. In expensive and can draw resources away this context, for universities to survive, from the core academic focus of universities. thrive, remain sustainable and maintain There is considerable scope for shared a competitive edge, they have to adapt services (for example IT services) across the themselves rather rapidly and flexibly. To this higher education sector in South Africa, at end, continuous innovation, resources and the system level, between institutions within key institutional capabilities are necessary. close proximity, within institutions and with In other words, as pointed out by Navarro third parties, to control costs, access scarce & Gallardo (2003), when universities are expertise and advanced technology, and gain in circumstances of vulnerability, when the benefits of scale. environment is undergoing rapid changes; they must have corresponding capabilities in A number of academic programmes order to remain as effective organisations. offered by universities can be described Capacity is the very essence of strategy.

HE sustainability – discussion document | 13 Strong dynamic institutional capabilities Effective institutional leadership is a critical are key enablers of adaptive and successful underpinning of organisational transformation institutional responses when inflection points and stability, effective responsiveness to emerge. Organisations that possess strong dramatic changes, accountability, institutional dynamic capabilities are characterised by, efficiency and sustainability. Clark (1998) amongst others, robust organisational identifies institutional leadership, which he designs, highly effective and entrepreneurial characterises as strengthened steering core, management teams, capacity to sense as one of the critical pathways for becoming ‘unknown futures’ and innovate and adapt an entrepreneurial university. Individual to change (Teece, Peteraf & Leih, 2016). university leaders, their leadership acumen Dynamic capabilities are important for and their relationship with the groups that they setting priorities and enabling coherence lead and governance structures, matter. So between strategy, structure and the broader are organisational structures and processes organisational environment; they enable and the competencies of individuals who organisational change, consistent with manage various functions. They influence evolving economic, social and technological the success of the organisation, its stability, environments. One of the defining features agency and accountability. South African of the higher education sector in South universities have experienced leadership Africa is marked differentials in institutional challenges which have manifested at various capabilities. This unevenness is a feature institutions in multiple ways, amongst of the unresolved inequalities between them, misuse of funds, mismanagement, institutions arising from the country’s corruption and other unethical practices. apartheid legacy and unresolved challenges These leadership challenges are documented post-1994. Seven universities have been in reports of independent assessors and placed under administration since 2011. administrators and also in forensic reports. Inadequate institutional capabilities, coupled with limited resource support, are a recipe for institutional dysfunction.

14 | HE sustainability – discussion document Recommendations for USAf

The resource challenges confronting South The following are some principles or African universities are unprecedented. propositions that should underpin a Whilst universities have to respond to these re-imagined higher education sector: challenges in the context of their specific 1. Public higher education should advance circumstances, the overarching nature of the the public good and contribute to challenges call for sector-wide strategies to, re-imagining a new society and its amongst others, explore the various ways sustainability. in which universities can respond effectively both individually and collectively as a sector. 2. A re-imagined higher education system To this end we make the following proposals should be responsive to the diverse for USAf to consider: and multiple needs of the economy and society and tackle the technological, environmental and social disruptions of (a) Commission a study to quantify the the 21st century. financial impact of COVID-19 on universities and, broadly, their financial 3. Historical legacies and current sustainability. inequities and inequalities in the higher education sector should be eradicated (b) Following the study in (a) above, USAf to level the playing field and create a should develop a proposal for stimulus genuine higher education system with funding for universities to reduce the differentiated institutions. impact of COVID-19 and also develop proposals for long-term interventions to 4. A re-imagined higher education the financial challenges experienced by system should be underpinned by historically disadvantaged universities. a funding regime that guarantees The proposal should form the basis of affordability, engenders teaching engagement with DHET and Treasury. and research excellence, supports excellent infrastructure, and addresses (c) Investigate the development of historical institutional inequalities and new income streams and facilitative sustainability. ecosystems to support them. 5. A higher education system that (d) Develop a discussion paper on the significantly reduces and ultimately future of higher education in South eliminates differential student success Africa. and graduation rates based on (e) Establish a task team on the future race, gender, class and other critical of the various modes of teaching variables. and learning beyond the current pre- 6. A re-imagined higher education system COVID-19 contact mode. that is articulated with training and (f) Explore the establishment of a national vocational colleges to enable life-long shared services platform to serve the learning and democratisation of access higher education sector. to higher education.

HE sustainability – discussion document | 15 7. A public higher education system that to demographic diversity and new guarantees equitable access, delivery institutional cultures co-created to of transformed curricula, embraces address toxic cultures including, but blended learning methodologies, not limited to, all forms of gender- promotes the mental health and well- based violence, racism and sexism. being of students and staff, and provides 10. A re-imagined higher education excellent integrated services to students system should promote partnerships over the full student lifecycle. and collaborations, within the system, 8. A public higher education system that is across the continent and globally, that characterised by a vibrant research and are mutually beneficial and change/ innovation system that generates high disrupt current relationships that quality and impactful knowledge and is largely privilege the interests of the responsive to local, regional, national, Global North. continental and global challenges. 11. A re-imagined higher education system 9. A re-imagined higher education should enable the mobility of students system should pursue substantive across the continent and attract transformation strategies that lead international students globally.

This paper was presented by Professor Gerald Wangenge-Ouma, Director: Institutional Planning at the University of Pretoria, and Professor Tawana Kupe, Vice-Chancellor and Principal of the University of Pretoria, at a Special Meeting of the USAf Board on 24 July 2020.

Inquiries: Ms Jana van Wyk; [email protected]

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