Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: Lessons from the 1930s U.S. February, 2013 Christopher Hanes Department of Economics State University of New York at Binghamton P.O. Box 6000 Binghamton, NY 13902 (607) 777-2572
[email protected] Abstract: In recent years economists have debated two unconventional policy options for situations when overnight rates are at the zero bound: boosting expected inflation through announced changes in policy objectives such as adoption of price-level or nominal GDP targets; and LSAPs to lower long-term rates by pushing down term or risk premiums - “portfolio- balance” effects. American policies in the 1930s, when American overnight rates were at the zero bound, created experiments that tested the effectiveness of the expected-inflation option, and the existence of portfolio-balance effects. In data from the 1930s, I find strong evidence of portfolio- balance effects but no clear evidence of the expected-inflation channel. Thanks to Barry Jones, Susan Wolcott and Wei Xiao for comments. In recent years economists have considered two “unconventional” monetary policy options as last resorts for situations when real activity is too low, but the central bank has already pushed the overnight rate to the zero bound and done its best to convince the public the overnight rate will remain zero for a long time - “forward guidance.” One is to announce a credible change in policy objectives that raises the inflation rate the public expects the central bank to aim for in the future, when the economy is out of the liquidity trap and conventional tools work again. An increase in the central bank’s inflation target would do the trick.