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BYD Buy (1211 HK) (Maintain) [China] Autos February 18, 2021 BYD Buy (1211 HK) (Maintain) Poised for full-fledged profit growth TP: HK$320 ▲ Upside: 20.6% Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. Hyunwoo Jin [email protected] Valuation Raise TP to HK$320 We raised our 2021 and 2022 EPS estimates for BYD by 27% and 53%, respectively, as we revised up our electric vehicle (EV) sales volume and margin forecasts. Our target P/E remains unchanged at 100x. We believe the company will cement its leadership in the EV market and meet earnings growth expectations. We switched our valuation base from 2021F EPS to 2022F EPS. Investment points Launch of EV-dedicated platform/brand BYD will unveil its EV-dedicated platform and new models at Auto Shanghai in April. The integration of EV technology into a dedicated platform should lead to cost savings (scale effects), improved performance, and better space efficiency. We forecast BYD’s EV sales volume to climb 95% to 360,000 units in 2021, including 160,000 units for the Han and 72,000 units for the Tang. Expanding target market: The company plans to launch a luxury EV brand in 2022 and enter the luxury market in 2023. Strong potential of LFP battery business Chinese and non-Chinese brands are likely to adopt BYD’s Blade Battery, which already meets the technological requirements for mass commercialization in terms of driving range, fire safety, and cost. We expect BYD’s battery market share to rise from 15% in 2020 to 18% in 2021. We forecast battery capacity to expand to 60-70GWh at end-2021. Strengthening vertical integration Taking innovation into its own hands: BYD is strengthening its capabilities across key parts, including batteries, motors, and power control units. Reliance on third parties for parts supplies and electrification technology innovation is gradually decreasing. BYD plans to spin off its power semiconductor business and take it public. We believe the move will help accelerate capacity expansions and technology development. In late January, BYD raised CNY29.8bn (around W4.3tr) through a sale of new shares. The proceeds will be used to accelerate technology development and pay down debt. Risks A decline in EV ASP (our forecast: +5% annually) and higher selling expenses due to intensifying competition Battery quality defects Key data Current price (2/17/21, HK$) 265.40 Market cap (HK$bn) 859.2 800 BYD HSI 700 Exchange Hong Kong Market cap (Wtr) 122.7 600 500 EPS growth (22F, %) 36.0 Shares outstanding (mn) 821.5 400 P/E (22F, x) 82.9 52-week low (HK$) 33.50 300 200 Dividend yield (%) 0.1 52-week high (HK$) 278.40 100 0 19.1 19.7 20.1 20.7 21.1 Share performance Earnings and valuation metrics (%) 1M 6M 12M (Dec.) 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F Absolute 8.0 267.8 488.5 Revenue (CNYmn) 102,651 121,791 121,778 135,412 180,532 222,321 Relative -0.7 199.9 429.3 EBIT (CNYmn) 7,963 7,504 5,919 9,723 11,684 14,394 EBIT margin (%) 7.8 6.2 4.9 7.2 6.5 6.5 NP (CNYmn) 4,066 2,780 1,614 4,317 5,613 7,634 EPS (CNY) 1.49 1.02 0.59 1.58 1.96 2.67 ROE (%) 8.6 6.2 3.9 5.1 6.6 7.2 P/E (x) 40.5 47.2 69.5 139.8 112.7 82.9 P/B (x) 3.0 2.3 1.8 10.0 7.1 6.6 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the US. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. February 18, 2021 BYD Earnings growth to accelerate With the EV market entering a full-fledged growth phase, BYD’s steady efforts to build EV competitiveness and strengthen vertical integration are set to pay off. We expect the sales mix of EVs to increase from 43% in 2020 to 69% 2021 and 78% in 2022, and we see the auto unit’s pretax margin rising from 8.8% in 2020 to 10.1% in 2021 and 10.5% in 2022. We forecast BYD’s EV sales volume to expand 95% YoY to 360,000 units in 2021, including 160,000 units for the Han electric sedan (released in 2020; first model equipped with the Blade Battery) and 70,000 units for the Tang SUV (second Blade Battery-equipped model; release expected in 2H21). BYD plans to unveil a dedicated EV platform and new models in 1H21, and it plans to launch a luxury EV brand in 2022 and enter the luxury market in 2023. We expect auto margins to continue to improve, aided by ASP growth and scale effects. BYD’s battery business is also well-positioned for steady growth. We expect the company’s battery market share to rise from 15% in 2020 to 18% in 2021, aided by growing adoption of the Blade Battery by its own EVs as well as other domestic and foreign brands. We believe BYD’s lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery already meets the technological requirements for mass commercialization in terms of driving range (over 500km), fire safety, and cost. BYD’s batteries are likely to be adopted by compact or affordable EV models targeting China, Southeast Asia, and India, where income levels are relatively low. BYD is bullish on demand for its batteries, with management recently announcing plans to build a new battery plant with annual production capacity of 20GWh. We expect BYD’s annual battery production capacity to expand to 60-70GWh by end-2021, equivalent to 40-50% of that of CATL, the no. 1 player in the global battery market. We also expect utilization at BYD’s battery facilities to increase from below 40% to over 60%, aided by robust demand growth. BYD stands to enhance its EV competitiveness further, as the Blade Battery (a cell-to-pack LFP battery technology commercialized in 2020) is likely to generate synergies with the soon-to- be-released “EV 2.0” platform. The integration of EV technology into a dedicated platform should lead to cost savings (scale effects), enhanced battery efficiency and driving performance, and better space efficiency. It should also help shorten the new model development cycle. BYD is taking innovation into its own hands, strengthening its capabilities across key parts such as batteries, motors, and power control units. Compared to rivals that depend on outside vendors for parts and technology development, BYD is better positioned to drive agile, bold innovation. Such vertical integration should also help generate economies of scale as EV production increases. Meanwhile, BYD issued 133mn shares (equivalent to 4.9% of old shares) for HK$225 each at end-January. The proceeds from the share issue (CNY29.8bn) will be used to develop EV/autonomous vehicles, pay down debt, and expand battery production capacity. BYD’s share price had rallied strongly, leading to successful capital raising. The company’s ample cash holdings will likely help it cement its leadership in the EV market. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 February 18, 2021 BYD Figure 1. BYD: Sales projections ('000 units) 700 EVs (L) Conventional vehicles (L) EV share (R) 90% 80% 600 70% 500 60% 400 50% 300 40% 30% 200 20% 100 10% 0 0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F Note: PHEVs are included in EV data. Source: Company data, MarkLines, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Table 1. BYD: Sales projections 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F EV sales (‘000 units) 60 102 114 229 221 183 357 508 YoY 70% 11% 102% -3% -17% 95% 42% % of total sales 14% 20% 27% 44% 48% 43% 69% 78% Total car sales (‘000 units) 447 508 420 521 461 427 521 651 YoY 14% -17% 24% -11% -7% 22% 25% Conventional sales (‘000 387 405 306 292 240 244 164 143 units) YoY 5% -24% -5% -18% 2% -33% -13% Note: PHEVs are included in EV data. Source: Company data, MarkLines, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Table 2. BYD: 2021 Tang EV Manufacturer BYD Acceleration (0–100km/h) 4.6s Model 2021 Tang EV Battery pack capacity 86.4kWh Release schedule 2H21 Battery type LFP Blade Battery After-subsidy price CNY284,000 Dimensions 4,870 x 1,950 x 1,725mm Range (NEDC) 505km Wheelbase 2,820mm Source: Company data, press materials, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 February 18, 2021 BYD Figure 2. China: Monthly avg. BEV sales by model in 4Q20 (incl. micro EVs) (Units) 30,000 28,035 25,000 19,184 20,000 15,000 10,000 8,581 7,181 6,480 5,132 4,007 5,000 3,773 3,442 2,870 0 SAIC-GM- Telsa Great Wall BYD Chery GAC SAIC BYD SAIC-GM- WM Wuling Model 3 Ora R1 Han eQ1 Aion S MG ZS Qin Pro Wuling EX5 Hong SUV Baojun Guang Mini E100 Note: Blue bars indicate micro EVs priced below W10mn. Source: MarkLines, SNE Research, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 3. China: BEV market breakdown in 2020 (incl. micro Figure 4. China: BEV market breakdown in 2020 (excl. micro EVs) EVs) 3.1% 2.8% 3.1% 2.9% 3.0% SAIC-GM-Wuling Tesla 4.5% Tesla BYD 19.7% 3.5% 20.6% 4.6% BYD GAC 3.8% GAC NIO 5.5% Great Wall 6.3% SAIC SAIC BAIC 5.8% NIO Geely 14.2% 6.6% Chery Xpeng 6.2% 19.6% BAIC WM 9.0% 13.5% Changan Changan Source: MarkLines, SNE Research, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: MarkLines, SNE Research, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 5.
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