LONDON BOROUGH OF BROMLEY SCHOOL PLACE PLANNING REPORT 2020
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Council has met its statutory duty in every year since 2010 ensuring that every on-time applicant gets an offer of school place In the most recent admissions rounds nearly 9 out of 10 applicants for a primary school place and more than 7 out of 10 secondary applicants got their first choice The Council and its partners have added over 6,500 new permanent school places. As part of this expansion the Council has invested over £80m in expanding existing schools and the Government have opened 4 primary and 2 secondary Free Schools Whereas growth has been mostly focussed on the primary sector, growth in school rolls over the next 5 years will be concentrated in the secondary sector. Meeting the growth in the need for SEN places also remains an increasing challenge for Bromley and most local authorities. Between 2014 and 2019 school have increased by 2,890 (6%) and by the projected peak in 2026 are projected to increase by a further 4,536 pupils (9%). If the GLA projected peak of 54,379 is reached in 2026, the primary and secondary populations will have increased by 7,426 (16%) between 2014 and 2026. If the remaining secondary mainstream Free School proposal for Harris Kent House is delivered the Council is projected to have satisfied secondary need up to 2030. However, if Harris Kent House is unable to open in temporary accommodation the Council is expected to need to deliver additional temporary capacity in the secondary sector until the new school opens. The Council was successful in 2019 in having its SEN Free School approved by the DfE. However, the DfE and Council have been unable to appoint a provider and are currently reviewing the proposals.
Background
The Council reviews its plan for Place Planning on an annual basis. The Plan reviews key data with regards demographics, the school population and projections and assesses the need for school places in Bromley and recommends proposals to provide sufficient capacity.
The Education Act 1996 makes local authorities responsible for securing sufficient school places for children of compulsory school age in their local area and that provision should be diverse and increase opportunities for parental choice.
The Local Authority can influence the supply of schools by expanding existing schools. Since the 2011 Education Act local authorities are no longer able to
1 open new maintained schools and all new schools must be secured via the Free School route.
Since 2009 there had been a significant increase in the primary school population with the number of Reception year pupils increasing from 3,442 in 2010 to 3,995 in 2019. The total primary school population increased from 22,983 to 26,989 over the same period, indicating an increase in admissions outside the main school transfer points and an overall increase in the number of pupils in the primary phase.
The growth in demand for school places in now passing from the primary to the secondary sector with the need for Year 7 places in secondary schools forecast to increase from 3,445 in 2016/17 to 4,082 in 2022/23.
Key issues for the review of school places are:
Since 2010 there has been an increase in the Bromley’s school age population. While growth at reception age has now plateaued, growth in other age groups means that the school population will continue to increase into the middle of the next decade, with particular areas of growth in Hayes and West Wickham and Central Bromley. There were 4,005 live births in Bromley in 2018, a fall the peak of 4,326 but in 2016. Live births are projected to remain above 4,000 for the next decade. The GLA’s 2019 future peak projections for school rolls at Year 7 have reduced in comparison with previous years, but remain above the current Year 7 capacity The number of Reception places available at a borough-wide level are current sufficient to meet projected need. However, there are local areas where further pressure is expected before 2030 and these projected trends will need to be carefully monitored and new proposals brought forward if necessary School rolls in Key Stage 2 in some areas are close to capacity, although schools can admit over 30 in KS2. However, KS2 capacity will continue to be monitored due to its potential impact on the Council’s ability meet the demand for in-year admissions There section on SEN has not been updated as this work is part of a separate project that is due to report in Summer 2020. During 2018 there were changes in national policy to support the creation of new voluntary aided schools and expansion of grammar schools. In 2019 following discussions with the Council the Roman Catholic Archdiocese submitted an expression of interest for a new school through the voluntary aided capital bidding round. However, the bid was withdrawn and there is not a strong Basic Need argument for an additional new secondary school in the Borough beyond Harris Kent House which has been approved by the DfE.
2 RECOMMENDATIONS
1. That pupil roll projections and other trend data set out in the report be noted;
2. That a planning margin of 5% above the GLA school roll projections is continued to be sought to provide for local variations in need and to meet parental preferences;
3. That whilst there are, at the moment, sufficient places available or planned to meet current and projected demand for school places, the Council will work with schools to safeguard the existing supply of school places as required;
4. That there are specific pressures for placements for pupils with an Education Health and Care Plans (EHCPs) and that the Council works with local schools, trusts and the DfE to bring proposals forward to increase capacity and improve provision where necessary;
5. That discussions be undertaken with schools, multi academy trusts and the DfE, as outlined in this report, to ensure a sufficient supply of mainstream school places in the Borough, including through expansions and opening new schools;
6. That there is a potential delay to Harris Kent House opening and that it is recommended that the Council engages in conversation with Harris and other academy trusts operating in the borough to ensure that there are sufficient school places until the school opens;
7. Where expansion is agreed, to implement through the education capital programme (subject to the availability of funds);
3 2. OVERVIEW
Bromley continues to experience increasing demand for school places that started in 2010, with pressure now mostly focussed on the secondary phase. The projected peak in secondary places has reduced, although the Council is forecast to need more school places for September 2021 if Harris Kent House is unable to open on time.
A comprehensive review of the Council’s plan for the provision of school places took place in September 2013. Subsequently a consultant was commissioned during 2015 to undertake further analysis to provide ward level information about the school population and live births. This report reviews data underpinning our planning for school places and includes the 2019 GLA school roll projections, data on live births, updated population forecasts, the most recent DfE data on cross borough movements and data for school admissions.
Primary School Places
Growth in the need for primary school places since 2010 has been driven by an increase in the birth rate and inward migration. Growth in pupil numbers has been most significant in Penge and Anerley, Beckenham, Central Bromley and Cray Valley, but rising school admissions have been experienced across most parts of the borough.
The table below provides details of the change in Reception Year school rolls. Reception year rolls rose from 3,442 in 2010 to a peak of 4,036 in January 2016 and in autumn 2019 were 3,955. The primary school population is still increasing with previous growth in reception numbers passing through schools with pupil numbers rising from 22,983 in 2010 to 26,989 in 2019.
Table 2.1: Reception Year School Rolls in Bromley 2010-19 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 Places 2000 Rolls 1500 Rolls +5% 1000 500 0
Source: DfE School Census
4
The table below illustrates that there is no significant forecast change in the need for primary school places to 2030, with reception rolls projected to be stay around 4,000 and more than 4,200 school places available borough- wide. However, in some years there is projected to be fewer surplus places than the Council’s 5% target with growth expected in certain areas including Central Bromley and the Council will need to keep the situation under review.
Table 2.2: Projected Reception need and capacity 2019/20- 2031/32 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0
Places GLA 2019 GLA 2019 +5%
Source: 2018 GLA School Roll Projections
Secondary School Places
Unlike the primary sector, the initial period following 2010 saw a fall in the need for place in the secondary sector. However, Year 7 roll have increased since 2015-16 and secondary growth is current the key mainstream need.
Table 2.3: Year 7 School Rolls in Bromley 2010-19 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 Places 1500 School Rolls 1000 500 0
Source: DfE School Census
5
Looking forward the secondary sector is expected to be the focus of growth. Year 7 School rolls are expected to be 4,082 in 2022/23, with a need for 4,286 places with the Council’s target of 5% surplus places.
Table 2.4: Projected need for Year 7 places and capacity 2020/21- 2030/31 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 Harris Kent House 2500 Base PAN 2000 GLA 2019 1500 1000 GLA 2019 + 5% 500 0
Source: 2019 GLA School Roll Projections
To meet secondary need, since 2013, four new schools were approved via the free school route. This has resulted in the focus of the Local Authority’s strategy shifting from the expansion of existing schools to working with the DfE and free school proposers to provide the required capacity.
The Council has permanently expanded one school, Bishop Justus, from 180 to 240 with works being completed in autumn 2019.
Of the Free Schools, Eden Park High School opened, in 2017, with an intake of 180 pupils temporarily at The Ravensbourne School and moved to its permanent site in Elmers End in September 2019 where it admits 240 pupils.
Bullers Wood School for Boys (180 place intake) opened in temporary accommodation at Westmoreland Road in September 2018. In 2019 it moved into temporary accommodation on its permanent St Hugh’s site whilst its new facilities are constructed.
Two further secondary schools in Bromley were approved by the DfE as part of its Free School programme, SHaW Futures Academy sponsored by London South East Colleges and Harris Kent House. The SHaW Futures proposal was rejected by the Planning Inspectorate at Inspection in 2019 and the Trust withdrew the proposal for the scheme from the Free School programme in spring 2020. Work is now concentrating on the Harris Kent House Proposal although it is going to be several years before the permanent facilities are constructed. The delay in the Department for Education opening this school would result in a forecast shortage of spaces in 2021/22 and the Council’s 5% surplus target not being met. In this event opening Harris Kent
6 House in temporary accommodation or open bulge classes temporary will need to be considered.
What the Council has done to respond to the need for additional school places?
To meet the increasing need for school places since 2012 the Council has added over 2,000 permanent school places and in excess of 1,500 temporary places. When combined with nearly 4,500 new school places being added in Free Schools that are already open, this adds up to over 6,500 new permanent school places created in Bromley provided since 2012. Additional temporary expansions have reduced each year since 2014 as the Council has replaced temporary ‘bulge classes’ with permanent expansion.
Table 2.5: Permanent and Temporary Places Added Each Year Between 2012 and 2018. 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 Permanent 600 Temporary 400 200
0
2012/13 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2014/15 2018/19 2013/14 Source: Bromley Council
School Preferences
Although the need for school places has risen considerably since 2010 the Council has been able to work with partners to ensure there is a supply of Ofsted ‘Good’ and ‘Outstanding’ schools available locally. As a result each year the Council has been able to ensure that each on-time applicants applying for a Reception or Year 7 school place receives an offer on National Offer Day
At the same time we have ensured that most parents get the school of their choice. In the 2020 admissions rounds 86% of primary applicants got their first preference and 97% one of their top 3. For secondary, 73% of applicants for a Year 7 place got their first preference and 90% one of their top 3.
7 As can be seen below in tables 2.6 and 2.7, whilst on-time applications have remained at a similar level, since 2017 over 85% of applicants received their first preference.
Table 2.6: Primary Preference Data by On-time applications 2017-20 4500 4000 3500
3000 Directed 2500 4th – 6th 2000 3rd 3312 3366 3347 2nd 1500 3294 1st 1000 500 0 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Bromley Council
Table 2.7: Primary School Preferences 2015-20 100% 90% 80%
70%
1st
60% 82%
83% 2nd
85%
86% 86% 50% 87% 3rd 40% 4th – 6th 30% Directed 20% 10% 0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Bromley Council
Table 2.7 below provide preference data for secondary school applications over the past 6 years and indicates that even though the need for secondary school places has increased, in its planning for school places Bromley has managed to increase the proportion of applicants receiving their 1st preference.
8 Table 2.7: Secondary School Preferences 2015-20 100% 90%
80%
70%
1st
70%
70%
72% 72% 73% 60% 73% 2nd 50% 3rd 40% 4th – 6th 30% Directed 20% 10% 0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Bromley Council
The tables below provide details of how Bromley performed with regards secondary application as part the 2020 co-ordinated PAN London admissions round compared to its neighbours and London as a whole.
As can be see below with 73% of applicants getting their 1st preference, Bromley out-performed London as a whole and its capital neighbours with the exception of Bexley.
Table 2.8: Secondary Offers 2020 – Comparison of Preferences data by Local Authority
100%
90%
12%
80%
12% 14%
70% 14%
15%
16% 17% 60% 17%
50%
40%
78%
73% 68%
30% 68%
65%
64% 62% 20% 60% 10% 0%
1st 2nd 3rd 4-6th Directed
Source: London Councils
9 3. BOROUGH DATA
This section reviews Borough-wide data that underpin the Council’s school place planning activities.
A Growing School Population
Over the period to 2030 the number of pupils in Bromley schools will increase. Based on the 2017 GLA School Roll Projections, the school population will rise from 51,362 in 2020 to a peak of 54,379 in 2026, before falling back slightly to 54,029 in 2030.
Table 3.1 below provides details about actual changes to primary and secondary rolls from the school census up to 2019 and forecasts from the GLA School Roll Projections up to 2030. It demonstrates that the significant growth in primary and secondary school rolls are projected to be sustained over the next decade.
Table 3.1: Actual and Projected Schools Rolls 2010 to 2030 29,000 28,000 27,000 26,000 25,000 Primary Census 24,000 Primary GLA Secondary Census 23,000 Secondary GLA 22,000 21,000 20,000
Source: School Census and GLA 2019 School Roll Projections
Within the context of overall growth in schools rolls, the need for school places is now working through the primary sector to secondary schools.
Table 3.2 below provides details of the changes to reception year and Year 7 rolls, the key entry points to primary and secondary school, over the past 10 years. It shows that reception year rolls have risen from 3,442 in 2010 to a peak of 4,036 in 2016 and in October 2019 were 3,864.
10 Table 3.2: Changes in Reception and Year 7 rolls 2010-2019 4200
4000
3800
3600
3400
3200
3000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Year R Year 7
Source: School Census
The table below illustrates the changes to on-time applications for reception and year 7 school places between 2014 and 2020, again showing the increase in year 7 applications and a slight drop in reception applications.
Table 3.3: On-time school applications from Bromley residents 2014 to 2020 4200
4000
3800
3600 Primary Yr R Secondary Yr 7 3400
3200
3000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Bromley Admissions Team
The two tables below analyse the projections provided in recent years by the GLA for both Reception and Year 7 places. Although the overall trend has been for increasing school rolls, the level of peak need has fluctuated.
Roll projections for the past 3 years have forecast a reduction in peak Reception rolls in comparison with the 2016 projections. Although there has been a long-term shift upwards in Reception rolls since 2010, there is some uncertainty with live births increasing and migration falling in future years. Considering the GLA School Roll Projections over recent years, it would appear likely that in the short to medium term Reception intakes will be
11 somewhere in the range between 3,850 and 4,050 pupils per annum. If rolls exceed this range or if there are local fluctuations the Local Authority may need to consider providing additional capacity.
Table 3.4: Comparative GLA Projections of Reception School Rolls 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600
2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 Average
Source: GLA School Roll Projections 2014-19
Similarly, the 2019 GLA projections have reduced the forecast peak in growth in Year 7 places to 4,082 in 2022/23, lower than the peak of 4205 projected in the 2017 rolls.
Table 3.5: Comparative GLA Projections of Year 7 School Rolls 4500 4400 4300 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 3500
2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 Average
Source: 2014-19 GLA School Roll Projections
12 CROSS BOROUGH MOVEMENTS
At both primary and secondary age Bromley is a net importer of pupils, although a significant number of local residents are educated in other boroughs. This reflects the close boundaries with other London boroughs, but a significant number of Bromley residents also access secondary places in Kent.
According to 2019 School Census data 92.6% of primary pupils and 78.1% of secondary pupils both live and attend school in Bromley as a proportion of the resident population.
Table 3.6: 2019 Cross Borough Movements Primary Secondary Special Schools Schools Schools No. of pupils attending 2,014 (7.4%) 3,821 (21.9%) 58 (8.4%) state-funded schools within the LA but living in another LA No. of pupils living in LA 1,379 (5.2%) 3,065 (18.4%) 98 (13.4%) but attending state- funded schools in other LAs Net difference between 635 (2.3%) 756 (4.3%) -40 (-5.8%) imports and exports as a % of school population Source: DfE 2019 Schools and their characteristics
Whilst Bromley is a net importer of pupils at primary age, the number of cross borough movements is less than at secondary age. This is primarily because, although generally travel less distance to access a school place. There has been a slight increase in the number and net flow of pupils coming into the borough to access a secondary school place compared to 2018.
Table 3.7 below details that Croydon residents (749), followed by Lewisham (606) are most likely to access a primary school place Bromley.
13 Table 3.7: Out-Borough Pupils in Bromley Primary
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Source: DfE January 2019 Schools, Pupils and Their Characteristics
Similarly, Bromley residents are most likely to attend an out of borough primary schools in Lewisham (461) or Croydon (245).
Table 3.8: Bromley Primary Age Residents Educated in Other Boroughs
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Source: DfE January 2019 Schools, Pupils and Their Characteristics
The table below provides details of changes in primary age cross borough movements between Bromley and other authorities between 2010 and 2019.
Over this period both the number of out-borough pupils in Bromley primary schools and the number of Bromley residents being educated in schools in other boroughs has increased.
Bromley remains a net importer of primary school pupils, the net import figure has increased from 554 in 2010 to 618 in 2019 (2.3%). Over this period, the percentage of out-borough pupils in Bromley schools which has increased by 17% which matches the increase in the total number of pupils in Bromley
14 primary schools. The number of Bromley residents in other borough schools has increased by 19% over the same period.
Table 3.9: Cross Borough Movements at Primary Age 2010-19 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
-500
2011 2012 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2018 2019 -1,000 2010 -1,500 -2,000 Bromley residents educated out-borough Out-borough Net Out-borough
Source: DfE January 2019 Schools, Pupils and Their Characteristics
There are a greater number of cross borough movements at secondary age due to pupils’ ability to travel further and larger schools generally having a greater area from which pupils are attracted.
Table 3.10 below sets out the residence of out-borough pupils in Bromley secondary schools. 22% of pupils in Bromley secondary schools are residents of another borough. Lewisham (1,385), Croydon (1,054), Bexley (549) and Greenwich (487) are the boroughs with the greatest number of residents in Bromley secondary schools
Table 3.10: Out-Borough Pupils in Bromley Secondary Schools
1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
Source: DfE January 2019 Schools, Pupils and Their Characteristics
15 19% of Bromley residents attend secondary school in another borough. Kent (779), Bexley (680) and Croydon (658) have the greatest number of Bromley residents in their secondary schools.
Table 3.11: Bromley Secondary Age Residents Educated in Other Boroughs
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Source: DfE January 2019 Schools, Pupils and Their Characteristics
Although Bromley remains a net importer of secondary age pupils, the situation has changed significantly since 2010 as whilst the number of out- borough pupils in Bromley secondary schools has increased by 3% the percentage of Bromley residents at secondary schools in other boroughs has increased by 20%. This means that whereas in 2010 there were 1,177 more out-borough pupils in Bromley schools compared to Bromley residents in other borough schools, in 2019 this number had fallen to 766 (4.3%).
Table 3.12: Cross Borough Movements at Primary Age 2010-18 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
-1,000
2011 2012 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2018 2019 -2,000 2010 -3,000 -4,000 Bromley residents educated out-borough Out-borough Net Out-borough
Source: DfE January 2019 Schools, Pupils and Their Characteristics
16 Demographics
The section below provides some detail on the key population demographics that influence the need for school places in Bromley.
Bromley’s schools age population is influenced by two main factors: live births and migration. Table 3.13 compares the ONS’ live birth statistics since 2001 and the GLA projections since 2008. Since 2001 live births have increased from 3,414 a year to a peak of 4,326 in 2016 and 4,005 in 2018. The GLA projection closely follows the ONS data.
Table 3.13: Live Births, comparison of ONS data and GLA projections 4,400
4,200
4,000
3,800 ONS 3,600 GLA 3,400
3,200
3,000
2001 2003 2011 2013 2015 2017 2025 2027 2029 2037 2039 2041 2007 2009 2019 2021 2023 2031 2033 2035 2005 Source: ONS and GLA
Table 3.14 below provides more details of the GLA projections for births that and forecasts these to remain close 4,200 until 2030.
Table 3.14: GLA Live Birth Projections Live births 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0
Source: GLA Projections 2019
17 The GLA Population Projections forecast Bromley’s 0-19 year old population to increase from 81,655 in 2020 to a peak of 84,274 in 2027 before falling back slightly to 84,038 in 2020, and increase of 3% across the period. The most significant growth will be in the 16 to 19 age group were the rate of increase is forecast to be 15%.
Table 3.15: 0-19 Year Old Population in Bromley 2020-30 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 0 to 3 4 to 10 11 to 15 16 to 19
GLA Population Projections 2019
The school age population is forecast to increase from 62,372 in 2020 to a peak of 64,656 in 2026 before falling slightly to 64,211 by 2032, representing growth of 3% across the period. All Key stages are projected to increase with the exception of Key Stage 2 which will decrease by 4%.
Table 3.16: Project School Age Population by Key Stage 2020-30 70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4 KS5
GLA Population Projections 2019
The school age population will grow from 62,372 in 2020 to 64,656 in 2026, before falling back slightly to 64,211 in 2026. Across the period the school
18 population will increase by 3%. However, whilst the secondary age population will increase by 2,407 (7%) the primary population will decrease by 568 (-2%).
Table 3.17: Comparative School Age Population in Bromley 2019-32 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Primary Secondary
GLA Population Projections 2019
The table below provides details of the ethnic origin of the school population in Bromley.
Table 3.18: Pupils in Bromley Schools by Ethnic Origin 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0
Source: DfE 2019 Schools and their characteristics
Table 3.19 below provides details of the first language of pupils in Bromley schools. 6670 (13%) of pupils have a first language that is other than English.
19 Table 3.19: First Language of Pupils in Bromley Schools 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 English Other than English Unclassified
Source: DfE 2019 Schools and their characteristics
The table below provides details of the number of pupils in Bromley eligible for a school meal. 5,206 (105) of pupils are eligible, with 2,950 primary and 1,926 secondary pupils being able for free school meals.
Table: 3.20 Number of Pupils Eligible For Free School Meal in Bromley by Type of Setting 3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0 Primary Secondary Special PRU Alternative Provision
Source: DfE 2019 Schools and their characteristics
Although numbers are lower, pupils in special schools and pupil referral units (PRU) are more likely to be eligible for frees meals, with almost 50% of PRU pupils eligible.
20 Table 3.21: Percentage of Pupils Eligible for Free School Meal in Bromley by Type of Setting
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 Primary Secondary Special PRU
Source: DfE 2019 Schools and their characteristics
Bromley at 10% of the school population has a lower rate of eligibility for free school meal compared with the England (15%) and London (17%) averages. In surrounding boroughs, Lambeth (25%) and Croydon (22%) have the highest rates of eligibility.
Table 3.22: Percentage of Pupils Eligible for Meal in Bromley and other Local Authorities 30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Source: DfE 2019 Schools and their characteristics
21 Types of Schools
The table below sets out the number of schools in Bromley, there are 77 primary schools, 18 secondary schools, 4 special schools, 3 pupil referral units (PRUs) and 19 independent schools.
Table 3.23: Number of schools by type 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 State-funded State-funded Special State- Pupil referral Independent primary secondary funded units
Source: DfE 2019 Schools and their characteristics
As set out in Table 3.24 below, there are currently 56,762 pupils in Bromley Schools with 27,820 pupils in maintained primary schools, 22,854 in maintained secondary schools, 705 pupils in maintained special schools and 5,286 in independent schools.
Table 3.24 Number of Pupils in Bromley Schools 30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0 State-funded State-funded Special Pupil referral Independent primary secondary State-funded units
Source: DfE 2019 Schools and their characteristics
Between 2010 and 2018 the number of pupils at all schools in Bromley has increased from 51,280 to 56,000. During this period independent rolls
22 increased from 4,400 to 5,131. This increase of 9% is in line with the increase in local state funded schools.
Table 3.25 Bromley School Population 2018
60000
50000
40000
30000 Independent State Funded 20000
10000
0
Sources: DfE January 2018 School Census
23 4. SEND
Key trends Live births remain historically high with 4,326 in 2016 School age population has risen by 8.4% since 2010 and is projected to increase by a further 7.4% until 2025 Growth in the school age population continues until the late 2020s. Bromley has a greater proportion of pupils with an EHCP than regional or national comparators The number of EHC statutory needs assessments in Bromley increased from 202 (2016) to 271 (2017). 99% of assessments resulted in an EHCP, which is higher than national/London averages (93%). Bromley has a lower proportion of pupils with an EHCP in mainstream schools and a greater percentage in independent special schools than most other boroughs. 6% of children with EHCPs attended an independent provision in 2017 compared with 3.8% nationally Cost of independent placements has increased 20% since 2014 When the higher costs of independent placements is considered, Bromley is spending too much on independent settings and not enough on supporting pupils with an EHCP in mainstream settings Rate of growth in EHCPs has been lower than national or London comparator, although growth in the most recent years has been 15%. This is partly explained by Bromley’s use of pupil resource agreements in mainstream settings which negates the requirement where possible for full EHCPs.
The number of children with SEN
Table 4.1 below details of the changes in Bromley resident pupils with a Statement or an EHCP since 2010.
Table 4.1 The number of Bromley children with an Education Care and Health Plan Bromley Pupils With AN EHC PLAN 2010-18 2,150 2,100 2,050 2,000 1,950 1,900 1,850 1,800 1,750 1,700 1,650 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: DfE SEN2 Census
24 Table 4.2 below illustrates that whilst the number of EHCPs has increased by 12% in Bromley since 2010, this growth is considerably less than when compared to growth nationally (40%) or London (48%). This differential may at least in part be explained by Bromley’s Pupil Resource Agreements.
Table 4.2 Percentage Change in the Number of ECHP since 2010 by Area 60%
50%
40% ENGLAND 30% LONDON OUTER LONDON 20% Bromley 10%
0%
2013 2014 2017 2018 2012 2015 2016 -10% 2011
Source: DfE SEN2 Census
Types of Need
Table 4.3 illustrates that representing 26% and 43% of EHCPs in Bromley 2018 Autistic Spectrum Disorder (ASD) and Speech, Language and Communication Needs (SLCN) were the most common primary need on Bromley EHCPs in 2018 followed by Social, Emotional and Mental Health Needs (SEMH).
Table 4.4 The types of needs of children with an EHC Plan EHC Plans by Primary Diagnosis 2018 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
DfE 2018 SEN2 Data
25 Table 4.5 below illustrates the prevalence of primary needs in each group. It shows that in the early years of primary education SLCN is the most common primary needs with other needs, in particular ASD and SEMH, becoming more prevalent as children move from primary to secondary age.
Table 4.5: 2018 – EHCP by Academic Year and Primary Diagnosis 200 VI 180 Unknown 160 SPLD 140 SEMH 120 SLD 100 SLCN 80 PMLD 60 PD 40 OTH 20 MSI 0 MLD R 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
DfE 2018 SEN2 Data
SEND pupils in Bromley schools
This section looks at data based on where a pupil is educated as opposed to the authority that has responsibility for the statement.
Table 4.6 below shows the change in the number of pupils in Bromley schools with an EHCP since 2007. In a period that has seen overall growth in school rolls it sets out that the number of EHCPs in local schools has been more volatile with a significant increase between 2008 and 2013, with numbers then falling until 2017 before an increase in 2018.
26 Table 4.6 The Number of pupils with a statement or EHC plan attending a school in Bromley 1,950 1,900 1,850 1,800 1,750 1,700 1,650 1,600 1,550 1,500 1,450 1,400 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: DfE Special Educational Need In England January 2018
Table 4.7 demonstrates that whilst that the number of pupils in Bromley schools has been volatile, the rate of pupils with an EHCP in Bromley remains higher than national or regional comparators.
Table 4.7: Number of pupils with a statement or EHC plan, based on where the child attends school - all Schools, by area 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3 ENGLAND LONDON 2.8 OUTER LONDON 2.6 Bromley 2.4 2.2
2
2007 2008 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2015 2016 2009 Source: DfE School Census and School Level Annual School Census 2016
Table 4.8 below provides a comparison between the year-on-year change in EHCPs, school rolls and the school age population since 2011. It illustrates that whilst growth in school rolls and the school age population has remained relatively constant at between 0% and 2%, the change in the number of EHCPs has been more erratic with some 2018 seeing growth in excess of 7% whilst reductions were experienced in 2014 and 2015.
27 Table 4.8 Comparison of changes in Statements and EHCPs, School Rolls and the School Age Population since 2011 8%
6%
4%
2% School Rolls (all) School Age population
0% EHCPs
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -2% 2012
-4%
-6%
Source DfE School Census and GLA population projections
The table below sets out the projected change in EHCPs in Bromley based on Key Stage. This indicates that whilst recent growth in demand has been mainly in KS1 and KS2, growth will concentrated amongst the secondary cohort in future years.
Table 4.9: Projected Number of Children with EHC Plans by Key Stage
2500
2000
KS5 1500 KS4 KS3 1000 KS2
500 KS1
0
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2012
Table 4.10 below compares the percentage of children with either an EHCP or SEN support nationally, regionally or in Bromley and changes between 2015 and 2018 based on where the child attends school. It shows that whilst in 2015 more pupils in Bromley schools had EHCP and less SEN support than comparators, Bromley is now more aligned with national and regional averages.
28 Table 4.10 Percentage of pupils with special educational needs, based on where the pupil attends school 14 12 10 8
6 ENGLAND 4 LONDON 2 OUTER LONDON 0
Bromley
EHCP EHCP EHCP EHCP
SEN Support SEN SEN Support SEN Support SEN Support SEN 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: DfE School Census
Types of Provision
Data from the school census shows that between 2004 and 2018 pupils on Bromley special schools have overall increased, with growth accelerating since 2012.
Table 4.11 Pupil Rolls in Bromley Special Schools 2004 to 2018 Pupils at Bromley Special Schools 2004-18
700 650 600 550 500 450
400
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2004 DfE: School Census
Table 4.12 below shows that whilst pupil numbers have remained static at Marjorie McClure rolls have increased at Riverside since 2013, Glebe since 2015 and Bromley Beacon Academy since 2017. This reflects Riverside increasing its secondary ASD capacity by 1FE from 2013, Glebe its secondary ASD capacity by 2FE from 2015 and Bromley Beacon expanding to take pupils in KS2 and KS5 and becoming co-educational.
29
Table 4.12 Change in Pupil Rolls at Bromley Special Schools 20012 to 2018 300
250
200 Bromley Beacon 150 Glebe Marjorie McClure 100 Riverside
50
0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
DfE: School Census
Table 4.13 reflects that whilst school capacity has increased, these changes are incremental with the new school places being filled year-on-year with the newly created capacity expected to be filled over the new few years.
Table 4.13 Comparison of School Rolls and Capacity in Bromley Special Schools 2012 to 2018 800
700
600
500 Riverside Marjorie McClure 400 Glebe 300 Bromley Beacon
200 Capacity
100
0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
DfE: School Census
Where children with EHCPs receive their education Table 4.14 illustrates that whilst numbers have fluctuated from year to year, the major shift in the period 2014 to 2018 is that whereas previously the greatest number of pupils with an EHCP were educated in a mainstream school, this position has now changes with more children receiving their education and support in a special school.
30
Table 4.14: Changes in where children with an EHCP are educated 2014 to 2018 900 800 700 Early Years 600 Mainstream 500 Resource Provision 400 Mainstream Special AP 300 Independent 200 Awaiting Placement 100 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Table 4.15 below illustrates that less Bromley children with an EHCP are educated in a mainstream school than national or local comparators, with a greater proportion of Bromley EHCPs educated in a SEN unit or the independent sector.
Table 4.15: Where children with an EHCP are placed (2018) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 ENGLAND 5 LONDON 0 OUTER LONDON
Bromley
AP/PRU
provision)
schools
Unit)
Mainstream
maintained
Special school: Special
school:(resourced
Mainstream school Mainstream
Mainstream school: Mainstream school independent
Special school: LA school: Special
independent special independent
Special school: non- school: Special
foundation schools) foundation maintained (including maintained
Mainstream school (SEN school Mainstream DfE: Placement of children and young people with a statement or EHC plan1 by local authority
Table 4.16 shows the increased number of pupils placed in an out of borough setting between 2014 and 2018. Whilst there has been a decrease in the use of both independent and mainstream boarding provision, both independent and maintained day provision has increased.
31 Table 4.16: Bromley children with an EHCP placed in an out-of-borough setting 2014 to 2018 400
350
300
250 Independent Day 200 Independent Boarding Maintained Boarding 150 Maintained Day 100
50
0 2014 2016 2017 2018
32 5 LOCAL DATA
5.1 PENGE, ANERLEY AND CRYSTAL PALACE
Clock House Balgowan Primary School Ward Churchfields Primary School Riverside – Beckenham site (SEN) Stewart Fleming Primary School Crystal James Dixon Primary School Palace Ward Penge and Alexandra Infant School Cator Ward Alexandra Junior School Harris Crystal Palace Primary Academy Harris Kent House Primary Academy St Anthony’s RC Primary School St John’s CE Primary School Harris Bromley (Girls Secondary) Harris Kent House (Secondary Free School in pre-opening phase)
Primary
In this local area, between 2010 and 2019 Reception Year school rolls increased significantly, rising from 542 in autumn 2019 Reception Year Rolls reached a peak of 596 in 2015, before falling back to 503 in 2018. However, reception rolls have again been locally increasing for the past 2 years.
Figure 5.1.1. – School Rolls and Capacity 2010-2020 700
600
500
400 Places 300 Rolls 200 Rolls +5%
100
0
Source: School Census
To meet this increasing need the Council expanded a number of primary schools or opened bulge classes. Churchfields and Harris Crystal Palace have permanently expanded and now admit 2FE into reception each year (60 pupils). Balgowan, Harris Kent House, James Dixon, St John’s and Stewart Fleming have all admitted bulge classes since 2010. Stewart Fleming is due to expand from 2 to 3 FE from September 2020.
33 Looking forward both the primary aged population and primary rolls are projected to fall whilst the secondary aged population is due to increase into the middle of the decade before decreasing. The number of live births is also projected to fall.
North West Bromley is the part of the borough where there is greatest demand for more local secondary school places as demonstrated through the Year 7 admissions process.
The DfE gave approval in Wave 12 of the Free School programme to Harris Kent House, a new secondary school that is proposed to meet increasing need in Bromley and Lewisham. Following the withdrawal of the SHaW Futures proposal in central Bromley the DfE have recommenced work on this projected.
Future Need for Primary School Places
Table 5.2.1 below compares the planned reception capacity (places) with the 2019 GLA School Roll Projections. Although places and need is currently closely matched, with current rolls indicating a 5% surplus in 2020/21 in line with the Council’s target, in future year’s rolls are forecast to fall with a potential 2 FE surplus by 2030/31. However, this needs to be closely watched as Reception Year school rolls have increased in both of the last 2 years.
Table 5.2.1: Comparison of 2019 GLA projections and planned primary school Reception Year places
600
500
400
300 Places GLA 2019 200 GLA 2019 +5% 100
0
Source: GLA 2019 School Roll Projections
Table 5.1.3 below compares the 2017, 2018 and 2019 GLA School Roll projections. The 2019 projections follow a trend across recent years of predicting a steeper reduction than previously, with rolls falling to 436 in 2030/31 compared to the 2017 projections that predicted 478.
34 Table 5.1.3: GLA School Roll Projections 2020-31 – Comparison on 2019, 2018 and 2017 Projected Rolls 600
500
400 Places 300 GLA 2019 200 GLA 2018 GLA 2017 100
0
Source: GLA 2019 School Roll Projections
Table 5.1.4 below indicates, as highlighted by previous analysis, that the number of pupils on school rolls in Planning Area 1 drops between reception and Year 6. This supports anecdotal evidence that a proportion of families move to other areas before secondary transfer.
Table 5.1.4: Comparison of School Rolls in Reception and Year 6 600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Year R Year 6
Source: GLA 2019 School Roll Projections
Current School Rolls in Local Primary Schools
Table 5.1.5 shows primary school rolls in this area at the 2019 Autumn School Census compared with available places. There was a surplus of places in all years (7% to 16%) apart from Year R. In reception year there was a 6% deficit, this was caused by delays in the Stewart Fleming Primary School expansion project that was originally to provide an additional 30 places from
35 September 2019. The delays arose due to contractor insolvency. This was compensated by Churchfields Primary School offering an additional 30 places above their published admissions number.
5.1.5: Primary school rolls and capacity October 2019 by Year Group – Penge, Anerley and Crystal Palace 700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0 R 1 2 3 4 5 6 Pupils Places
Source: Spring 2019 School Census
Secondary School Destination of Local Year 6 Pupils
The table 5.1.6 below is based on children at local primary schools starting Year 7 in September 2017. Children in local schools were most likely to accept a place at Harris Beckenham or an out of borough school, with Eden Park High School and Harris Bromley also accounting for a significant number of offers.
Table 5.1.5: Destination of Year 6 Pupils
Source: 2017 Bromley School Admissions
36
Demographics
Live births are only one of the drivers of population growth. The GLA projections as set out below forecast that live births will fall from 739 in 2020 to 607 in 2030.
Table 5.1.7: Live Births – Penge, Anerley and Crystal Palace 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Source: GLA 2019
Table 5.1.8 below provides details of the GLA’s population forecasts. They predict the 0-19 population will increased from 12,138 to a peak of 12,239 in 2022 before reducing to 11,366 by 2030. They also forecast an increase in the school age population from 8,693 in 2020 to a peak of 9,201 in 2024, after which it will fall back to 8,584 by 2030. The primary school population is due to fall each year to 2032 whilst the secondary age population will grow until 2027 before reducing, although there are projected to be 419 more secondary aged residents by 2030 compared to now.
37 Table 5.1.8: GLA Population Projections – Penge, Anerley and Crystal Palace 14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 0 to 3 4 to 10 11 to 15 16 to 19
Source: 2019 GLA Population Projections
The GLA Population Projections below predict that across the period 2020 to 2030 the Key Stage 1, 2 will decrease, whereas the KS3, KS3 and KS5 population will rise and then fall.
Table 5.1.9: GLA Population Projections – By Key Stage 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4 KS5
Source: 2019 GLA Population Projections
The table below indicates that secondary age population will increase and exceed the primary age population after 2022.
Table 5.1.10: GLA Population Projections – By Primary and Secondary Age
38 6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Primary Secondary
Source: 2019 GLA Population Projections
PENGE, ANERLEY AND CRYSTAL PALACE SCHOOL PLACES ACTON PLAN Recommendations Work with governors at St John’s Church of England of previous Primary School to consider future expansion from 1.5 meeting of School to 2 FE. (NB. School requires improvement and is Places Working currently not filling to 1.5 FE) Group
What happened Phase 2 expansion works at Stewart Fleming re- during 2019-20? tendered. Conversations ongoing with DfE have recently restarted on the proposals for a new Harris secondary school on the Kent House site, following LSEC’s withdraw of the SHaW Futures proposed new secondary school in planning area 4. If the scheme proceeds it will be accompanied by improvements to the adult education accommodation that will remain on site. The proposal to expand St John’s CE Primary scheme is currently on hold with design work on hold at prior to the planning stage. The school is temporarily operating at 1FE. What’s on-going? Construction of phase 2 works Stewart Fleming Primary School with the school permanently expanding to 3FE from September 2020. Working with the DfE about on a secondary school on the Kent House site Churchfields Primary School has again decided independently to offer 90 places for September 2020. Future Work with the DfE to seek the earliest possible recommendations delivery of the Harris Free School on the Kent House site Support options for temporary provision of additional
39 secondary in advance of the new Harris secondary school project being delivered in 2023 or 2024. This includes consideration with the Harris Federation and the DfE of opening the school initially in temporary accommodation. Work with St John’s CE Primary School to secure improvements in attainment before considering expansion from 1.5 to 2 FE Keep the local places situation under review
40 5.2 BECKENHAM
Beckenham Copers Cope Ward Clare House Primary School Harris Beckenham Green Primary Academy St Mary’s RC Primary School Worsley Bridge Primary School Kelsey and Eden Park Eden Park High School (Secondary) Harris Beckenham (Secondary) Harris Beckenham Primary Academy Langley Park Primary Langley Park School for Boys (Secondary) Langley Park School for Girls (Secondary) Marian Vian Primary School Unicorn Primary School
Primary
Beckenham has experienced a considerable growth in pupil numbers concentrated on Copers Cope ward, with Reception rolls increasing from 299 in January 2010 to 478 in October 2019. Unlike the 2018 GLA School Roll Projections, the 2019 projections predict that need will remain relatively stable with the Council maintaining a surplus close to 5% of reception places in most years.
Figure 5.2.1. – School Rolls and Capacity 2010-2020 600
500
400
300 Places Rolls 200 Rolls +5% 100
0
Source: GLA 2019 School Roll Projections
Planning consent has been achieved for the redevelopment at Marian Vian Primary School that will improve access, permanently accommodate the two bulge classes already admitted and convert the former children and family centre into a nursery. This will be supported by S106 funding.
41 Future Need for Primary School Places
Table 5.2.2 below illustrates that school rolls are projected to remain stable through to 2030.
Table 5.2.2: Comparison of 2019 GLA projections and planned primary school Reception Year places 600
500
400
300 Places GLA 2019 200 GLA 2019 +5% 100
0
Source: GLA 2019 School Roll Projections
The table below indicates that the 2019 GLA School Roll Projections predicts that the need for reception places will remain stable compared to the 2018 projections that suggested that there may be an over-provision in future years.
Table 5.2.3: GLA School Roll Projections 2020-31 – Comparison of 2019, 2018 and 2017 Projected Rolls 600
500
400 Places 300 GLA 2019 200 GLA 2018 GLA 2017 100
0
Source: GLA 2019 School Roll Projections
In every year except 2026-27 the reception population will be greater than Year 6. However, over the period to 2030 Year 6 pupils are projected to increase by 85, whereas reception rolls will decrease by 15.
42
Table 5.2.4: Comparison of School Rolls in Reception and Year 6 600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Year R Year 6
Source: GLA 2019 School Roll Projections
Current School Rolls in Local Primary Schools
Table 5.2.5 below demonstrates in 2019 that there was a surplus of school places in each year group, but in Year 5 there was only a single surplus place. However, many schools teach in class sizes of over 30 in KS2 where they are not constrained by legislation.
Table 5.2.5: Primary School Rolls 2018 – Beckenham 600
500
400
300
200
100
0 R 1 2 3 4 5 6
Pupils Places
Source: Autumn 2019 School Census
Secondary School Destination of Local Year 6 Pupils
Beckenham is well provided with secondary schools; containing Harris Beckenham, Langley Park School for Boys and Langley Park School for Girls, along with Eden Park that will be moving the area in 2019 when the school
43 will expand from its entry from 180 to 240 pupils per year. The table below shows that most accepted offers locally for Year 7 places in September 2017 were for these schools, with out-borough schools the next most likely offer.
Table 5.2.6: Destination of Year 6 Pupils
Source: Bromley School Admissions
Demographics
Table 5.2.7 below illustrates that there will be a slight fall in live births in Beckenham from 433 in 2020 to 421 in 2030
Table 4.2.7: Live Birth Projections – Beckenham 600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Source: 2019 GLA live birth projections
Table 5.2.8 below illustrates that the 0-19 population in Beckenham is forecast to increase from 7,024 in 2020 to 7,577 in 2029 and then fall to 7,569 in 2030.
Table 5.2.8: GLA 0-19 Population Projections – Beckenham
44 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
0 to 3 4 to 10 11 to 15 16 to 19
Source: 2019 GLA
Table 5.2.9 below illustrates that the school age population in Beckenham is forecast to increase from 5,177 in 2020 to 5,706 in 2029, after which it will fall back slightly to 5,688 in 2030.
Table 5.2.9: School Age Population Projections – Beckenham 6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4 KS5
Source: 2019 GLA
Between 2020 and 2030 the primary school age population will increase by 92 (4%) and the secondary school population 417 (16%). Overall the school age population will increase by 10%. The secondary age population is projected to be greater than the primary age from 2021.
Table 5.2.10: Comparison of Primary and Secondary Age Population
45 3500
3000
2500
2000 Primary 1500 Secondary 1000
500
0
Source: 2019 GLA
BECKENHAM SCHOOL PLACES ACTON PLAN Recommendations To keep school organisation in the area under review of previous meeting of School Places Working Group What’s happened Planning consent for the scheme at Marian Vian during 2019-10? Primary School was achieved
What’s on-going? Awaiting Section 278 agreement at Marian Vian Primary School to progress off drop off/pick up works Future To undertake works at Marian Vian as S106 monies recommendations become available
46 5.3 HAYES AND WEST WICKHAM
Hayes and West Wickham Hayes and Coney Hall Hayes Primary School Ward Hayes School (Secondary) Pickhurst Infant School Pickhurst Junior School Wickham Common Primary School Shortlands Ward Harris Shortlands Primary Academy Highfields Infant School Highfields Infant School St Marks CE Primary West Wickham Ward Glebe (SEN) Hawes Down Primary School Oak Lodge Primary School
To date, Hayes and West Wickham has not been an area of growth in the need for school places in Bromley, with the only recent changes being the opening of Harris Shortlands Primary Academy and a bulge class opened Hawes Down Primary School in 2012. Currently there is a 4% surplus of places, close to the Council’s planning target.
Figure 5.3.1. – School Reception Rolls and Capacity 2010-2020
700
600
500
400 Places 300 Rolls 200 Rolls +5%
100
0
Source: School Census
However, from 2026 it is projected that the number of pupils in reception will be greater than the number of places available. In previous years it had been expected that Langley Park Primary just over the planning area boundary in Beckenham help as there was forecast to be excess capacity in future years that planning area. However, as seen in the last chapter, primary pupil numbers are not now forecast to decrease in future years. On this basis
47 school rolls in planning area 3 will have to be reviewed in future years to ascertain if the capacity needs to be increased.
Future Need for Primary School Places
Table 5.3.2 below compares sets out the 2019 GLA School Roll Projections compared with the local authority’s plans for meeting need. The current projections indicate that there could be a shortage of reception places in Hayes and West Wickham after 2026 rising to 1FE by 2030.
800 700 600 500 400 Places 300 GLA 2019 200 GLA 2019 +5% 100 0
Source: GLA 2019 School Roll Projections
Table 5.3.3: GLA School Roll Projections 2020-31 – Comparison of 2019, 2018 and 2017 Projected Rolls 700
600
500
400 Places
300 GLA 2019 GLA 2018 200 GLA 2017 100
0
Source: GLA 2019 School Roll Projections
48 The table below compares the GLA’s projections for Reception and Year 6 places. It projects that whereas reception rolls increase 67 911%) by 2030 whilst Year 6 rolls will decrease by 18 (3%).
Table 5.3.4: Comparison of School Rolls in Reception and Year 6 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Year R Year 6
Source: GLA 2019 School Roll Projections
Current School Rolls in Local Primary Schools
Based on the October 2019 school census places and pupil rolls are closely matched in KS1 whereas there are more pupils than places in Years 4, 5 and 6. However, these figures do not take account that schools can admit over 30 in KS2. In years 4, 5 and 6 the average class size remains under 32.
5.3.5: Primary School Rolls 2018 – Hayes and West Wickham 700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0 R 1 2 3 4 5 6
Pupils Places
Source: Spring 2019 School Census
49 Secondary School Destination of Local Year 6 Pupils
Table 5.3.6 below, based on accepted places for Year 7 in September 2017, demonstrates that a third of pupils in local primary schools transition to Hayes Secondary School at the end of Year 6. The Langley Park schools are the next most likely destination for Year 6 pupils.
Table 5.3.6: Destination of Year 6 Pupils
Source: Bromley School Admissions
Demographics
Live births are forecast to increase by 16% by 2030 with 60 more live births in 2030 compared to now.
Table 4.3.7: Live Births – Hayes and West Wickham 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Source: GLA 2019 The table below sets out the projections for changes in the local 0 to 19 age population. The 0-19 age population is projected to be fairly static with it
50 increasing by only 33 (less than 1%) between 2020 and 2030. The biggest change is in the 0-3 age population which is projected to increase by 16% whereas the 11 to 19 population is forecast to decrease by 8%.
Table 4.3.8: GLA 0-19 Population Projections – Hayes and West Wickham 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
0 to 3 4 to 10 11 to 15 16 to 19
Source: GLA 2019
Over the same period the school age population is forecast to decrease from 8,489 in 2020 to 7,333 in 2030, a drop of 3%.
Table 4.3.9: GLA School Age Population Projections – Hayes and West Wickham 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4 KS5
Source: 2019 GLA
The school age population will decrease by 156 (2%) by 2020. Over this period the primary age population is forecast to increase by 155 whereas the secondary age population reduces by 310 (7%).
51 Table 5.3.9: Comparison of Primary and Secondary Age Population
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 Primary Secondary
Source: 2019 GLA
HAYES AND WEST WICKHAM SCHOOL PLACES ACTION PLAN Recommendations To keep school organisation in the area under review of previous meeting of School Places Working Group What’s happened DfE advised the earliest possible opening date for the during 2019-20? SEN Free School is 2023. The first round of applications for the SEN Free School was unsuccessful in appointing a suitable sponsor. What’s on-going? SEN Free School proposals are being kept under review Future To keep school organisation in the area under review, recommendations particularly with regards the projected need for more primary school places later in the decade To continue to work with the DfE on the SEN Free School.
52 5.4 CENTRAL BROMLEY
Central Bromley Bickley Ward Bickley Primary School Bullers Wood School for Boys (Secondary) Bullers Wood School for Girls (Secondary) La Fontaine Primary Academy Scotts Park Primary School St Georges CE Primary School Bromley Town Ward Bromley Beacon Academy - Bromley Campus (SEN) Bromley Trust Academy – Hayes Lane Campus (PRU) Raglan Primary School Ravensbourne School (Secondary) Valley Primary School Plaistow and Sundridge Burnt Ash Primary School Ward Parish CE Primary School St Joseph’s RC Primary School
Central Bromley has been one of the areas of growth in primary school rolls in Bromley. The number of pupils in Reception class in local schools has risen from 430 in January 2010 to 554 in October 2019, an increase of 29%. Over this period, through expansions of existing schools (Parish and St George’s), bulge classes at Valley and Scotts Park and La Fontaine Primary School (Free School) opening, the capacity at Reception year has increased from 405 in 2009/10 to 570 in 2019/20.
Figure 5.4.1. – School Reception Rolls and Capacity 2010-2020 700
600
500
400 Places 300 Rolls 200 Rolls +5%
100
0
Source: School Census
The 2019 GLA School Roll Projections reaffirms the trend identified in the 2017 and 2018 that need would outstrip capacity in future years for reception places in central Bromley. The 2019 projections predict this to be less than a form of entry. There is capacity to introduce another bulge class at Valley
53 Primary School when required and capacity exists in surrounding planning areas, but the Council will need to keep this matter under review.
Future Need for Primary School Places
Table 5.4.2 below compares GLA forecasts for Reception places with planned school places. It identifies that additional places may be required in future years. It forecasts that with 570 locally available reception places, need will rise to 575 places by 2023-24 and 590 by 2030, creating a deficit. What is currently unclear is the role that schools bordering the local area will have in providing places.
Table 5.4.2: Comparison of 2019 GLA projections and planned primary school Reception Year places 700
600
500
400 Places 300 GLA 2019 200 GLA 2019 +5%
100
0
Source: GLA 2019 School Roll Projections
Table 5.4.3: GLA School Roll Projections 2020-31 – Comparison of 2019, 2018 and 2017 Projected Rolls 700
600
500
400 Places 300 GLA 2019 GLA 2018 200 GLA 2017 100
0
Source: GLA 2019 School Roll Projections
54 The table below analyses the difference between the Reception and Year 6 projections. The projections forecast that in the years 2021-2022, 2024 -2025 and from 2-26 onwards there are projected to be more 6 than reception pupils in local schools. Across the period 2019 to 2032 Reception rolls are forecast to increase by 19 (3%) and Year 6 rolls by 52 (9%).
Table 5.4.4: Comparison of School Rolls in Reception and Year 6 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Year R Year 6
Source: GLA 2019 School Roll Projections
Current School Rolls in Local Primary Schools
Table 5.4.5 below identifies that there is currently a small surplus of school places in every year group with the exception of Year 6. However, without a cap on class sizes many schools can offer more than 30 places in KS2, and the average number of pupils per class in Year 6 is only slightly higher at 31.
5.4.5: Primary School Rolls 2017 – Central Bromley 700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0 R 1 2 3 4 5 6
Pupils Places
Source: Autumns 2019 School Census
55 Secondary School Destination of Local Year 6 Pupils
Table 5.4.6 below provides details of where children in local primary schools transitioned to secondary school in September 2017 based on acceptances of school places. It demonstrates that Ravens Wood School and Bullers Wood School for Girls, both located in central Bromley, were the most likely offers to be accepted by applicants.
Table 5.4.6: Destination of Year 6 Pupils
Source: Bromley Admissions
Demographics
Live births are forecast to increase by 6% from 713 in 2020 to 759 in 2030.
Table 5.4.7: Live Births – Central Bromley 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Source: GLA 2019
56 Table 5.4.8 below indicates that central Bromley’s 0-19 population is forecast to increase from 13,476 in 2020 to 15,189 in 2030, an increase of 13%, with growth across each age band across the whole age group.
Table 5.4.8: GLA 0-19 Population Projections – Central Bromley 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 0 to 3 4 to 10 11 to 15 16 to 19
Source: 2019 GLA
Similarly, Bromley’s school age population is forecast to increase from 10,301 in 2020 to 11,643.34 in 2032, an increase of 13%, with growth across all the key stages.
Table 5.4.9: GLA School Age Population Projections – Central Bromley 14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4 KS5
Source: 2019 GLA
Unlike most other areas of Bromley, both the primary and secondary age population are projected to grow, with the primary age population forecast to increase by 218 (4%) between 2020 and 2030 and the secondary age population by 1,124 (22%).
57 Table 5.4.9: Comparison of Primary and Secondary Age Population 7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Primary Secondary
Source: 2019 GLA
CENTRAL BROMLEY SCHOOL PLACES ACTION PLAN Recommendations To keep school organisation in the area under review of previous meeting of School Places Working Group What’s happened Bullers Wood School for Boys moved to the St during 2019-20? Hugh’s site, initially in temporary accommodation LSEC withdrew the proposed SHaW Future Academy at 1 Westmoreland Road following refusal of the scheme by the Planning Inspectorate at appeal. What’s on-going? The DfE is submitting a Temporary Planning Application to increase the temporary accommodation at the Bullers Wood School for Boys site for September 2020. Future To keep school organisation in the area under close recommendations review taking into account the projections for increasing school rolls in the local area.
58 5.5 BROMLEY COMMON AND FARNBOROUGH
Bromley Common, Keston and Farnborough Bromley Common and Bishop Justus (Secondary) Keston Ward Keston CE Primary School Ravens Wood School (Secondary - Boys) Southborough Primary School St James RC Primary School Trinity CE Primary Farnborough and Crofton Darrick Wood Infant School Ward Darrick Wood Junior School Darrick Wood School (Secondary) Farnborough Primary School Newstead Wood School (Girls Secondary Grammar) Tubbenden Primary School Petts Wood and Knoll Crofton Infants School Ward Crofton Junior School
Following an increase in reception pupils during the middle years of the last decade, reception rolls have fallen back and are now almost identical to 2010. During this period there have been bulge classes at Keston Primary School and Farnborough Primary School. Trinity CE Primary School has the capacity to expand to 3FE but having taken additional classes in some years, is currently operating at 2FE. Throughout the last decade there has been fewer than 5% of surplus places in every year, the Council’s planning target.
Figure 5.5.1. – School Reception Rolls and Capacity 2010-2020 700
600
500
400 Places 300 Rolls 200 Rolls +5%
100
0
Source: School Census
59 Future Need for Primary School Places
Based on the 2019 GLA School Roll Projections, pupil numbers in reception are forecast to increase from 586 in 2020-21 to 591 in 2030. This growth is above the current reception capacity and higher than the actual autumn 2019 school census numbers. Additional places can be accommodated at Trinity CE Primary by opening a third reception class, but close monitoring will be required as adding an extra class only delivers a 1% surplus by 2030.
Table 5.5.2: Comparison of 2019 GLA projections and planned primary school Reception Year places 700
600
500
400 Places 300 GLA 2019 200 GLA 2019 +5%
100
0
Source: GLA 2019 School Roll Projections
The table below indicates that whilst the 2017 and 2018 GLA School Roll Projections both forecast a reduction in reception numbers in future years, the 2019 predict a slight increase across the plan period to 2030.
Table 5.5.3: GLA School Roll Projections 2020-31 – Comparison of 2019, 2018 and 2017 Projected Rolls 700
600
500
400 Places 300 GLA 2019 GLA 2018 200 GLA 2017 100
0
Source: GLA 2019 School Roll Projections
60
The table below illustrates that whilst for the next 3 years there is forecast to be more Year 6 than reception pupils, that position reverses from 2023-24 onwards.
Table 5.5.4: Comparison of School Rolls in Reception and Year 6 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Year R Year 6
Source: GLA 2019 School Roll Projections
Current School Rolls in Local Primary Schools
Table 5.5.5 below shows that there are sufficient school places in every year group, with the surplus between 5% and 1% across the year groups, with the lowest spare capacity in Year 6.
5.5.5: Primary School Rolls 2018 – Bromley Common, Keston and Farnborough 700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0 R 1 2 3 4 5 6 Pupils Places
Source: 2019 School Census
61 Secondary School Destination of Local Year 6 Pupils
Table 5.5.6 below provides details of accepted secondary school offers of Year 6 pupils starting Year 7 in September 2017. Over a third of Year 6 pupils accepted a place at Darrick Wood School, with Ravens Wood, out-borough schools and Bishop Justus being the next most regularly accepted offers.
Table 5.5.6: Destination of Year 6 Pupils
Source: Bromley Schools Admissions
Demographics
Live births are projected to remain static with 516 in 2030 compared with 510 in 2020.
Table 5.5.7: Live Births - Bromley Common, Keston and Farnborough 600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Source: GLA 2019
62 According to GLA population projections the 0-19 population is forecast to increase by 1% between 2020 and 2030. It will grow from 11,299 in 2020 to a peak of 11,555 in 2027 before falling back to 11,458 in 2030.
Table 5.5.8: GLA 0-19 Population Projections – Bromley Common, Keston and Farnborough 14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 0 to 3 4 to 10 11 to 15 16 to 19
Source: 2019 GLA
Similarly the school age population is forecast to increase by 1% from 8,746 in 2020 to a peak of 8,996 in 2026 before reducing to 8,874 in 2030.
Table 5.5.9: GLA School Age Population Projections – Bromley Common, Keston and Farnborough 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4 KS5
Source: 2019 GLA
The table below illustrates that the growth in the school age population is driven by a projected increase in secondary aged residents. The number of primary aged residents is forecast to decrease by 168 (4%) between 2020 and 2030 whilst the secondary aged population will increase by 279 (6%).
63 Table 5.5.10: Comparison of Primary and Secondary Age Population 6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Primary Secondary
Source: 2019 GLA
BROMLEY COMMON, FARNBOROUGH AND KESTON SCHOOL PLACES ACTON PLAN Recommendations To keep school organisation in the area under review of previous meeting of School Places Working Group What’s happened Expansion works at Bishop Justus have been during 2019-20? completed What’s on-going? Refurbishment works at the EDC for Trinity CE Primary School start currently delayed by Covid-19 Future To open up the 3rd Form of Entry at Trinity CE recommendations Primary School when required To keep school organisation in the area under review
64 5.6 CHISLEHURST AND MOTTINGHAM
Chislehurst and Mottingham Chislehurst Ward St Nicholas CE Primary Academy Chislehurst School for Girls (Secondary) Coopers School (Secondary) Edgebury Primary School Marjorie McClure (SEN) Mead Road Infant School Red Hill Primary School St Peter and St Paul RC Primary School Chislehurst and Castlecombe Primary School Mottingham Dorset Road Infants School Mottingham Primary School St Vincent’s RC Primary School
With yearly fluctuations Reception Year school rolls have increased from 331 in 2010 to 353 in autumn 2019, having peaked at 373 in 206-17. Currently there is 9% surplus in reception places, but this has fluctuated between 86% and 100%. In 2016 Edgebury Primary School expanded from 1 to 2FE.
Figure 5.6.1. – School Reception Rolls and Capacity 2010-2020 450 400 350 300 250 Places 200 Rolls 150 Rolls +5% 100 50 0
Source: School Census
A significant problem has been that two local infant schools, Dorset Road and Mead Road, do not have linked junior schools and not all pupils had a guaranteed place at KS1 to KS2 transition. The expansion of Castlecombe Primary School in KS2 has provided all pupils leaving Dorset Road Infant school a guaranteed junior place and the Spring Partnership has recently consulted on amalgamation of the schools with a decision awaited. Discussions are currently ongoing with Red Hill Primary School about its links with Mead Road Infant School.
65 Future Need for Primary School Places
Table 4.6.2 below compares the planned reception capacity and projected school rolls for places between 2018 and 2032. After peaking in 2020/21 school rolls are forecast be the same in 2030 (333 pupils) compared with 2020. On this basis there would be between a 10% and 15% surplus in places across the plan period. However, it should be noted, as demonstrated in Table 5.6.1 above, that currently actual rolls are higher at 353.
Table 5.6.2: Comparison of 2019 GLA projections and planned primary school Reception Year places 450 400 350 300 250 Places 200 GLA 2019 150 GLA 2019 +5% 100 50 0
Source: GLA 2019 School Roll Projections
Although from differing starting points, the 2030 reception roll projections for 2019 and 2017 are similar.
Table 5.6.3: GLA School Roll Projections 2020-31 – Comparison of 2019, 2018 and 2017 Projected Rolls 450 400 350 300 250 Places 200 GLA 2019 150 GLA 2018 100 GLA 2017 50 0
Source: GLA 2019 School Roll Projections
66 One significant factor evident in the projections, as in previous years, is that there are more pupils in reception year than Year 6 in all years between 2020 and 2030, with the gap widening after 2023. It is not clear whether this is due to the KS1 and KS2 transfer issues identified above, which results in pupils accessing school places in other areas or the independent sector,
Table 5.6.4: Comparison of School Rolls in Reception and Year 6 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Year R Year 6
Source: GLA 2019 School Roll Projections
Current School Rolls in Local Primary Schools
Table 5.6.5 below provides details of school rolls in each primary year. It demonstrates a surplus in all years which ranges from between 16% and 97%, greater than the Council’s target surplus capacity of 5%.
Table 5.6.5: Primary School Rolls 2019 – Chislehurst and Mottingham 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 R 1 2 3 4 5 6 Pupils Places
Source: Autumn 2019 School Census
67 Secondary School Destination of Local Year 6 Pupils
Table 4.6.6 below provides information, based on accepted offers, of the destination of Year 6 pupils starting at secondary school in 2017. It illustrates that the greatest number of children went to Coopers and Bullers Wood School for Girls, followed by out-borough schools.
Table 4.6.6: Destination of Year 6 Pupils
Source: Bromley School Admissions
Demographics
Live births are projected to fall from 386 in 2020 to 352 by 2030, a decrease of 9%. The 2017 and 2018 datasets made similar forecasts.
Table 4.6.7: Live Births - Chislehurst and Mottingham 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Source: GLA 2019
Table 4.6.7 below provides projections of the resident 0-19 year old population. It forecasts that the overall 0-19 population rise from 7,249 in 2019
68 to a peak of 7,368 in 2029 before reducing to 7,369 in 2030. Over the plan period the 0-19 age population will increase by 233 (3%). Across the period the 0-3 population will decrease by 8%, the 4-10 age group increase then fall back to its current level whilst both the 11-15 and 16-19 populations will increase.
Table 4.6.8: GLA 0-19 Population Projections – Chislehurst & Mottingham 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 0 to 3 4 to 10 11 to 15 16 to 19
Source: 2019 GLA
The table below indicates that the school age population is forecast to rise from 5,393 to 5,735 between 2020 and 2030, an increase of 6% with greatest growth in KS5.
Table 4.6.9: GLA School Age Population Projections – Chislehurst & Mottingham 7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4 KS5
Source: School Census
The table below details the changing makeup of the school age population with primary school aged population forecast to increase from 2,495 in 2020 to 2,544 and then back to current numbers (2,496) in 2030, whilst the
69 secondary age population will increase by 12% from 2,899 in 2020 to 3,239 in 2030.
Table 5.6.10: Comparison of Primary and Secondary Age Population 3500
3000
2500
2000 Primary 1500 Secondary 1000
500
0
Source: School Census
70
CHISLEHURST AND MOTTINGHAM SCHOOL PLACES ACTION PLAN Recommendations To keep school organisation in the area under review of previous meeting of School Places Working Group What’s happened The Council agreed Heads of Terms (HoTs) with the during 2019-20? DfE and school on the relocation of Marjorie McClure to land behind Edgebury Primary School, to be facilitated by a land swap with the special school. The Spring Partnership (MAT) consulted on the amalgamation of Dorset Road Infant School and Castlecombe Primary School What’s on-going? DfE preparing to tender Marjorie McClure works and submit planning application later in the year Awaiting the outcome of the Dorset Road Infant School and Castlecombe Primary School amalgamation and the Regional School Commissioner’s (RSC’s) Head Teacher Board (HTB) decision To continue discussions with Red Hill Primary School about KS2 transition of pupils from Mead Road Infant School Future To keep school organisation in the area under review, recommendations with particular reference to the potential for surplus primary schools places
71 5.7 CRAY VALLEY
Cray Valley Cray Valley East Manor Oak Primary School Perry Hall Primary School St Mary Cray Primary School St Paul’s Cray CE Primary School St Philomena’s RC Primary School Cray Valley West Bromley Trust Academy – Midfield Campus (PRU) Grays Farm Primary School Kemnal (Secondary – Boys) Leesons Primary School Midfield Primary School Poverest Primary School Riverside – Orpington site (SEN)
Cray Valley has seen a significant increase in school rolls over the past decade with reception rolls increasing from 314 in 2010 to 440 in 2015, an increase of 40%. Numbers fell back to 407 in 2017-2018 before recovering to 430 in autumn 2019. Currently there is slightly less than a 5% surplus in reception places, the Council’s planning target.
Figure 5.7.1. – School Reception Rolls and Capacity 2010-2020 500 450 400 350 300 250 Places 200 Rolls 150 Rolls +5% 100 50 0
Source: School Census
Future Need for Primary School Places
Table 5.7.1 below compares the projected need for primary school (Reception places) and planned capacity. The 2019 GLA School Roll Projections predicts that reception year rolls will increase from 423 in 2020 to 459 in 2030. This means there could be a shortage of places from 2029 and a surplus below the 5% target from 2024.
72 Table 5.7.2: Comparison of 2019 GLA projections and planned primary school Reception Year places 600
500
400
300 Places GLA 2019 200 GLA 2019 +5% 100
0
Source: GLA 2019 School Roll Projections
Table 4.7.3 below compares the GLA’s 2017 2018 and 2019 School Roll Projections for reception year need. The 2019 projections predict a growth in need above current capacity whereas the 2017 and 2018 projections predicted that numbers would stay stable or fall.
Table 5.7.3: GLA School Roll Projections 2020-31 – Comparison of 2019, 2018 and 2017 Projected Rolls 500 450 400 350 300 Places 250 GLA 2019 200 GLA 2018 150 100 GLA 2017 50 0
Source: GLA 2019 School Roll Projections
The table below compares projections for Reception and Year 6. Whilst the projections for reception need indicate an increase, Year 6 need will fall by 2030.
73 Table 5.7.4: Comparison of School Rolls in Reception and Year 6 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Year R Year 6
Source: GLA 2019 School Roll Projections
Current School Rolls in Local Primary Schools
Table 5.7.5 below compares available places with pupils on roll at the 2018 Spring School Census. It demonstrates that there are surplus school places in all years, although is Years 5 and 6 this is less than 2%.
Table 5.7.5: Primary School Rolls 2018 – Cray Valley 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 R 1 2 3 4 5 6 Pupils Places
Source: School Census Autumn 2019
Secondary School Destination of Local Year 6 Pupils
Coopers is the secondary school destination with the most accepted offers for pupils in Cray Valley primary schools, followed by Harris Orpington and out of borough secondary schools. A significant number of pupils at transition also attend Chislehurst School for Girls and Bishop Justus.
74
Table 4.7.6: Destination of Year 6 Pupils
Source: Bromley School Admissions
Demographics
The 2018 GLA projections predict that live births in Cray Valley are going to increase by 10% from 516 in 2020 to 566 in 2030.
Table 4.7.7: Projected Live Births – Cray Valley 800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Source: GLA 2019
Table 5.7.7 below illustrates that 0-19 population is projected to increase from 9,626 in 2020 to 9,758 in 2030. The 0-3 and 16-19 age group projected are projected whilst the 4-10 and 11-15 will fall.
Table 5.7.8: GLA 0-19 Population Projections – Cray Valley
75 12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 0 to 3 4 to 10 11 to 15 16 to 19
Source: GLA 2019
The school age population will rise from 7,327 in 2020 to 7,461 in 2024 before falling back to 7,252 in 2030, an overall fall of 1 % across the plan period.
Table 5.7.9: GLA School Age Population Projections – Cray Valley 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4 KS5
Source: GLA 2019
Between 2020 and 2026 the primary age population will fall from 3,415 to 3309 before recovering to 3,399 in 2030. The secondary age population is projected to increase from 3,912 in 2020 to 4,164 in 2024 before falling to 3,853 in 2030.
76 Table 5.7.10: Comparison of Primary and Secondary Age Population 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 Primary 2000 Secondary 1500 1000 500 0
Source: GLA 2019
CRAY VALLEY SCHOOL PLACES ACTION PLAN Recommendations • Continue to work with Governors at St Mary Cray of previous Primary on redevelopment proposals meeting of School Places Working Group What’s happened Works completed on expansion of Poverest Primary during 2019-20? School from 1 FE to 2 FE were completed
What’s on-going? Consideration of the redevelopment of St Mary Cray Primary School Future Keep the potential need for additional primary places recommendations under review Continue to work with Governors at St Mary Cray Primary on redevelopment proposals
77 5.8 ORPINGTON
Orpington Chelsfield and Pratts Chelsfield Primary School Bottom Ward Green Street Green Primary School Holy Innocents Primary School Pratts Bottom Primary School The Highway Primary School Warren Road Primary School Orpington Ward Bromley Beacon Academy - Orpington (SEN) Blenheim Primary School Harris Orpington Primary Academy Harris Orpington (Secondary) St Olave’s (Secondary – Boys Grammar)
Orpington has not experienced significant growth in the need for school places. Currently there is no forecast need for additional primary school places. The Council’s only intervention has been to add a single bulge class at Blenheim Primary School in 2014 where a feasibility study on options for expansion was completed, but there was insufficient justification in terms of need to progress with the scheme. At secondary age a significant number of pupils are educated in neighbouring boroughs.
The table below illustrates that whilst there was a slight rise in reception rolls between 2010 and 2015 and afterwards a reduction, rolls in 2019 were almost identical to 2010.
Figure 5.8.1. – School Reception Rolls and Capacity 2010-2020 450 400 350 300 250 Places 200 Rolls 150 Rolls +5% 100 50 0
Source: School Census
78 Future Need for Primary School Places
Table 5.8.2 below suggests that there will be sufficient Reception year places in Orpington throughout the plan period, although less than the Council’s target of 5%.
Table 5.8.2: Comparison of 2019 GLA projections and planned primary school Reception Year places 400 350 300 250 200 Places 150 GLA 2019 100 GLA 2019 +5% 50 0
Sources: 2019 GLA School Roll Projections
The 2019 GLA projections suggest that reception year rolls will remain stable over the next decade compared to the 2017 and 2018 projections, with projected reception rolls of 352 in 2030 compared with 355 in 2020.
Table 5.8.3: GLA School Roll Projections 2020-31 – Comparison of 2019, 2018 and 2017 Projected Rolls 400 350 300 250 Places 200 GLA 2019 150 GLA 2018 100 GLA 2017 50 0
Sources: 2019 GLA School Roll Projections
The table below illustrates that reception rolls will be 352 in 2030 compared with 355 in 2010 whilst Year 6 rolls will fall slightly from 375 to 358.
79
Table 5.8.4: Comparison of School Rolls in Reception and Year 6 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Year R Year 6
Source: 2019
Current School Rolls in Local Primary Schools
Currently, based on the 2018 Autumn School Census, places and need are closely matched with a small surplus in all year groups. However, the surplus in all years is equal or less than the Council’s 5% target.
Table 5.8.5: Primary School Rolls 2019 – Orpington 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 R 1 2 3 4 5 6 Pupils Places
Source: 2019 Autumn School Census
80 Secondary School Destination of Local Year 6 Pupils
Table 5.8.6 below, based on the Year 7 destination of children in local primary schools, illustrates that in 2017 an out borough school was the most likely destination at secondary transfer, with Harris Orpington and Darrick Wood being second and third.
Table 5.8.6: Destination of Year 6 Pupils
Source: Bromley School Admissions
Demographics
Live births will slightly increase from 350 in 2020 to 364 in 2030.
Table 5.8.7: Projected Live Birth in Orpington 2019 to 2030 400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Source: GLA 2018
81 As demonstrated the overall 0-19 population in Orpington is forecast to increase from 7,574 in 2020 to 7,724 in 2030, a rise of 150 (2%).
Table 5.8.8: GLA 0-19 Age Population Projections – Orpington 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 0 to 3 4 to 10 11 to 15 16 to 19
Source: 2019 GLA
The school age population is projected to increase from 5,833 in 2020 to 5,926 in 2030, with the population increasing across all Key Stage ages except KS2, but with the most significant growth in KS5.
Table 5.8.9: GLA School Age Population Projections – Orpington 7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4 KS5
Source: GLA 2019
In Orpington to 2030 the primary school aged population is projected to decrease from 2,734 to 2,693 whilst the secondary age populations will increase from 3,099 to 3,233.
82 Table 5.8.10: Comparison of Primary and Secondary Age Population 3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Primary Secondary
Source: 2019 GLA
ORPINGTON SCHOOL PLACES ACTION PLAN Recommendations To keep school organisation in the area under review. of previous To continue to monitor the number of local pupils that meeting of School go to out of borough schools at secondary transfer Places Working Group What’s happened Phase 2 works at Bromley Beacon Academy during 2019-20? Orpington completed, Phase 3 is underway What’s on-going? Currently there is insufficient need for primary school expansion in area. Future To keep school organisation in the area under review recommendations To continue to monitor the number of local pupils that go to out of borough schools at secondary transfer
83 5.9 BIGGIN HILL
Biggin Hill Biggin Hill Ward Biggin Hill Primary School Charles Darwin School (Secondary) Oaklands Primary School Darwin Ward Cudham CE Primary School Downe Primary School
Planning Area 9 the urban area of Biggin Hill and the surrounding rural communities and includes two smaller village primary schools along with Charles Darwin secondary school. The area has the lowest population density in the Borough. Reception numbers have fluctuated by up to 24% during the period 2010-20, but there are sufficient school places to meet local need.
Figure 5.9.1. – School Reception Rolls and Capacity 2010-2020 200 180 160 140 120 100 Places 80 Rolls 60 Rolls +5% 40 20 0
Source: School Census
Since the amalgamation of Biggin Hill Infant and Junior Schools and Oaklands Infant and Junior Schools at the end of the last decade there have been no further changes to the size or organisation of primary schools. Insufficient and dilapidated accommodation at Oaklands Primary School meant the school does not have enough accommodation to operate at 3 FE in every year and works were completed during 2019 to ensure address this insufficiency.
Future Need for Primary School Places
The GLA projections forecast a gradual increase the need for reception school places, although there are sufficient local places to meet demand to 2030.
84 Table 5.9.2: Comparison of 2019 GLA projections and planned primary school Reception Year places 200 180 160 140 120 100 Places 80 GLA 2019 60 GLA 2019 +5% 40 20 0
Source: 2019 GLA School Roll Projections
The number places projected places in 2019 for 2030/31 is higher than in both 2017 and 2018 but can still be managed within the existing school capacity.
Table 5.9.3: GLA School Roll Projections 2020-31 – Comparison of 2019, 2018 and 2017 Projected Rolls 200 180 160 140 120 Places 100 GLA 2019 80 GLA 2018 60 40 GLA 2017 20 0
Source: 2017, 2018 and 2018, 2019 GLA School Roll Projections
Table 5.9.4: Comparison of School Rolls in Reception and Year 6
85 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Year R Year 6
Source: 2019 GLA School Roll Projections
Current School Rolls in Local Primary Schools
Table 5.9.5 below, based on the 2018 Spring School Census, illustrates that there are currently enough school places in the local area to meet need in all primary years. Due to the geography and school organisation of the area there have historically been a higher proportion of surplus school places in the planning area than elsewhere in the borough.
Table 5.9.5: Primary School Rolls in Biggin Hill 2017 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 R 1 2 3 4 5 6 Pupils Places
Source: Autumn 2019 School Census
Secondary School Destination of Local Year 6 Pupils
Table 5.9.6 below demonstrates that at transition from primary to secondary school in September 2017 most pupils accepted places at Charles Darwin School.
86
Table 5.9.6: Destination of Year 6 Pupils
Source: Bromley School Admissions
Demographics
The GLA Live Birth Projections predict a 14% increase in live births between 2020 and 2030.
Table 5.9.7: Live Birth Projections in Biggin Hill 2011-2050 300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Source: 2019 GLA
The table below illustrates that overall there will be a gradual growth in the 0- 19 age population will grow from 3,954 in 2020 to 4,144 an increase of 5%. Growth is forecast in the number of children in each age group with the exception of the 11 to 15 cohort.
Table 5.9.8: GLA 0-19 Age Population Projections – Biggin Hill
87 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 0 to 3 4 to 10 11 to 15 16 to 19
Source: 2019 GLA
The table below illustrates that overall there will slow growth in the local school age population, with the school age population growing from 3,124 in 2019 to 3,1275 2032, an increase of 2%.
Table 5.9.9: GLA 0-19 Age Population Projections – Biggin Hill 3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 KS1 KS2 KS3 KS4 KS5
Source: 2019 GLA
Table 5.9.9 below indicates that across the period to 2030 the primary age population will initially fall until 2025 after which numbers will recover. The secondary age population will increase from 1,676 in 2020 to 1,807 in 2027 before falling back slightly to 1,742 in 2030.
88 Table 5.9.10: Comparison of Primary and Secondary Age Population 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Primary Secondary
Source: 2019 GLA
89
BIGGIN HILL SCHOOL PLACES ACTION PLAN Recommendations No additional places projected to be required until at of previous least 2032. meeting of School Places Working Group What’s happened Phase 1 works at Oaklands Primary School started during 2019-20? What’s on-going? Defects phase at Oaklands Primary School Future To keep school organisation in the area under review recommendations
90