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Eglinton Crosstown LRT Demand Forecasting Report December 2013 Prepared by: City and TTC Demand Forecasting group Eglinton Crosstown LRT 2 Demand Forecasting Report Acronyms EB Eastbound ESRC Electrification Study Reference Case LRT Light Rail Transit NB Northbound SB Southbound WB Westbound Eglinton Crosstown LRT 3 Demand Forecasting Report Table of Contents 1 Introduction and Purpose 2 Description of Forecasting Work 3 Land Use Assumptions 4 Transit Network Assumptions 5 Forecast Results 6 Summary List of Tables Table 3-1: Regional Land Use Assumptions Table 4-1: 2031 Network Improvements Table 5-1: Comparison with Previous 2031 Eglinton Crosstown LRT Forecast Table 5-2: 2031 Eglinton Crosstown Forecast Table 5-3: Eastbound Eglinton Crosstown LRT (Committed Projects + ESRC) Table 5-4: Westbound Eglinton Crosstown LRT (Committed Projects + ESRC) Table 5-5: Eastbound Eglinton Crosstown LRT (Basic Scenario + Extensions of LRTs) Table 5-6: Westbound Eglinton Crosstown LRT (Basic Scenario + Extensions of LRTs) Table 5-7: Kennedy Station - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activity Table 5-8: Victoria Park & Eglinton - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activity Table 5-9: Don Mills & Eglinton - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activity Table 5-10: Eglinton Station - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activity (No walk in/out adjustments) Table 5-11: Eglinton Station - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activity (Walk in/out adjustments) Table 5-12: Eglinton West Station - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activity Table 5-13: Caledonia & Eglinton - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activity Table 5-14: Mt Dennis Station - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activity – Scenario 1 Table 5-15: Mt Dennis Station - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activity – Scenario 2 List of Appendices Appendix A – 2031 Forecast Population by Zone Exhibit A-1: Eglinton Corridor Traffic Zones with Updated 2031 Population Table A-1: 2031 Forecast Population in the Eglinton Corridor by 1996 GTA Traffic Zone Appendix B – Feeder Bus Changes for the Committed Projects + ESRC Table B-1: TTC Improvements for Scenario 1 Appendix C – Feeder Bus Changes for the Basic Scenario + Extensions of LRTs Table C-1: TTC Improvements for Scenario 2 Eglinton Crosstown LRT 4 Demand Forecasting Report 1 INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE This report updates the February 2010 ridership forecasts for the Eglinton Crosstown LRT. The report contains the travel demand forecasts for two future scenarios. Scenario 1 has the confirmed Eglinton Crosstown LRT line from Kennedy to Mt Dennis. Scenario 2 has the extended Eglinton Crosstown LRT line from Kennedy to Pearson International Airport. Both scenarios include future (2031) land use in the City of Toronto and surrounding regions. 2 DESCRIPTION OF FORECASTING WORK The City of Toronto/TTC’s current forecasting process was used to analyse the Eglinton Crosstown LRT. This process involves the following: - updating the future (2031) land use in the study area - coding the LRT routing options in the City of Toronto and TTC forecasting models - coding any changes in the feeder bus network - running the City of Toronto’s GTA model to produce transit demand matrices - running the TTC’s MADITUC model using the derived transit demand matrices from the GTA model - generating statistics and interpreting the results The models are coded to represent the 2031 AM peak period transit network, and AM peak period ridership forecasts are produced for the year 2031. The City of Toronto’s GTA Model and the TTC’s MADITUC Model were run for both Scenario 1, with the confirmed LRT lines, and Scenario 2, with the extended LRT lines. 3 LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS Future year (2031) Toronto population assumptions are from the City of Toronto Official Plan with changes for the “Eglinton Second Platform” work in the Eglinton Crosstown corridor. Future year (2031) Toronto employment is based on the City of Toronto Official Plan estimate of 1.8 million jobs adjusted to match Metrolinx’s forecast Toronto employment of 1.6 million job total. The employment was adjusted by applying a factor to the estimated 2001 to 2031 employment growth in the Official Plan so that the total 2031 Toronto employment equals 1.6 million jobs. Future year (2031) land use assumptions in other regions are provided by Metrolinx. Table 3-1: Regional Land Use Assumptions Region 2001 Population 2001 Employment 2031 Population 2031 Employment Toronto 2,450,700 1,453,600 3,124,000 1,640,200 Durham 527,000 166,300 952,100 336,800 York 772,000 386,000 1,507,500 780,100 Peel 981,600 517,800 1,640,000 875,300 Halton 389,300 169,000 780,100 390,000 Hamilton 498,100 192,400 659,700 302,200 TOTAL 5,618,700 2,885,100 8,663,400 4,324,600 Eglinton Crosstown LRT 5 Demand Forecasting Report Future land use at the traffic zone level was used in the GTA model to generate trips originating from each zone and destined to each zone. 4 TRANSIT NETWORK ASSUMPTIONS Two network scenarios were modeled. Scenario 1 (Committed Projects + ESRC) includes the committed alignments of the Eglinton Crosstown, Finch West and Sheppard East LRT lines with the Electrification Study Reference Case. Scenario 2 (Basic Scenario + Extensions of LRTs) is the same a scenario one except the LRT lines are extended, and a few feeder bus routes are adjusted. The committed alignment of the Eglinton Crosstown LRT would run along Eglinton Avenue between Kennedy Station and Mt Dennis Station (west of Black Creek). The extended alignment of the Eglinton Crosstown LRT would run along Eglinton Avenue between Kennedy Station and Pearson International Airport. The Eglinton Crosstown LRT is coded to operate at a 4-minute frequency and at an average speed of 25km/h when above ground and at 32km/h along the underground section. The LRT will operate underground between Laird Drive and Mt Dennis Station. Along this section the LRT will stop at the following stations: Laird, Bayview, Mt Pleasant, Yonge, Avenue Rd, Chaplin, Bathurst, Eglinton West Station, Oakwood, Dufferin, Caledonia, and Keele. The model runs include the improvements listed in Table 4-1. The model runs also include numerous feeder bus changes to provide connectivity to the LRT lines. Eglinton Crosstown LRT 6 Demand Forecasting Report Table 4-1: 2031 Network Improvements Ridership Task Force Extended Projects Ridership Task Force Basic Projects Scenario 2 Route Network Scenario 1 "Basic Scenario + Extensions of "Committed Projects + ESRC" Committed LRTs" Toronto Funded LRT* Kennedy Station to Pearson International Kennedy Station to Mt Dennis with GO Rail Eglinton Crosstown LRT Airport with GO Rail connections at Mt connections at Mt Dennis and Caledonia Dennis and Caledonia Humber College to Finch W Station (no Pearson International Airport to Yonge- Finch West LRT interaction with Barrie GO) Finch Station (no interaction with Barrie GO) Don Mills Station to Morningside with GO Don Mills Station to Meadowvale with GO Sheppard East LRT Rail connection at Agincourt GO Station Rail connection at Agincourt GO Station Toronto Unfunded LRT Broadview Streetcar Broadview Station - Unwin Broadview Station - Unwin Waterfront King Streetcar Spadina - Commissioners Spadina - Commissioners Unwin Streetcar Union Station - Unwin via Queens Quay Union Station - Unwin via Queens Quay Union Station - Queen St. East via Queens Union Station - Queen St. East via Queens Leslieville Streetcar Quay Quay Subway/RT Replaced with Bloor-Danforth Subway Replaced with Bloor-Danforth Subway Scarborough RT extension to Sheppard via McCowan extension to Sheppard via McCowan alignment alignment Spadina Subway Extension Downsview to Vaughan Corporate Centre Downsview to Vaughan Corporate Centre 905 region BRT/LRT Finch - Newmarket (mixed traffic between Finch - Newmarket (mixed traffic between VIVA Yonge 19th and Mulock) 19th and Mulock) Peel/York Boundary- Locust Hill (Markham); Peel/York Boundary- Locust Hill (Markham); VIVA - Highway 7 mixed traffic at western and eastern ends mixed traffic at western and eastern ends (west of Helen and east of Unionville GO) (west of Helen and east of Unionville GO) Queen Street Zum As per today's service. As per today's service. As per today's service (Zum + MiExpress + As per today's service (Zum + MiExpress + Hurontario local), with addition of 403 Transitway local), with addition of 403 Transitway services. services. Durham-Scarborough As per today's Durham Pulse service. As per today's Durham Pulse service. 403 Transitway (Mississauga Eight local Mississauga and ten GO bus Eight local Mississauga and ten GO bus BRT) routes routes GO Rail Extensions Lakeshore West St. Catharines - Union Station (ESRC) St. Catharines - Union Station (ESRC) Lakeshore East Bowmanville - Union Station (ESRC) Bowmanville - Union Station (ESRC) Kitchener - Union Station (ESRC) with Kitchener - Union Station (ESRC) with Georgetown (Kitchener) connection to Eglinton Crosstown LRT at Mt connection to Eglinton Crosstown LRT at Mt Dennis Station Dennis Station Allendale - Union Station (ESRC) with Allendale - Union Station (ESRC) with Barrie - Bradford connection to Eglinton Crosstown LRT at connection to Eglinton Crosstown LRT at Caledonia Caledonia Stouffville (Lincolnville) Lincolnville GO - Union Station (ESRC) Lincolnville GO - Union Station (ESRC) Richmond Hill Bloomington - Union Station (ESRC) Bloomington - Union Station (ESRC) Milton (Cambridge) Milton - Union Station (ESRC) Milton - Union Station (ESRC) Eglinton Crosstown LRT 7 Demand Forecasting Report 5 FORECAST RESULTS This section presents the Eglinton Crosstown LRT transit forecasts for the year 2031. Comparison of Original and Updated Model Results Table 5-1 compares the peak passenger demand
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