Eglinton Crosstown LRT Demand Forecasting Report

December 2013

Prepared by: City and TTC Demand Forecasting group Eglinton Crosstown LRT 2 Demand Forecasting Report

Acronyms

EB Eastbound ESRC Electrification Study Reference Case LRT Light Rail Transit NB Northbound SB Southbound WB Westbound

Eglinton Crosstown LRT 3 Demand Forecasting Report

Table of Contents

1 Introduction and Purpose 2 Description of Forecasting Work 3 Land Use Assumptions 4 Transit Network Assumptions 5 Forecast Results 6 Summary

List of Tables

Table 3-1: Regional Land Use Assumptions Table 4-1: 2031 Network Improvements Table 5-1: Comparison with Previous 2031 Eglinton Crosstown LRT Forecast Table 5-2: 2031 Eglinton Crosstown Forecast Table 5-3: Eastbound Eglinton Crosstown LRT (Committed Projects + ESRC) Table 5-4: Westbound Eglinton Crosstown LRT (Committed Projects + ESRC) Table 5-5: Eastbound Eglinton Crosstown LRT (Basic Scenario + Extensions of LRTs) Table 5-6: Westbound Eglinton Crosstown LRT (Basic Scenario + Extensions of LRTs) Table 5-7: Kennedy Station - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activity Table 5-8: Victoria Park & Eglinton - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activity Table 5-9: Don Mills & Eglinton - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activity Table 5-10: Eglinton Station - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activity (No walk in/out adjustments) Table 5-11: Eglinton Station - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activity (Walk in/out adjustments) Table 5-12: Eglinton West Station - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activity Table 5-13: Caledonia & Eglinton - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activity Table 5-14: Mt Dennis Station - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activity – Scenario 1 Table 5-15: Mt Dennis Station - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activity – Scenario 2

List of Appendices

Appendix A – 2031 Forecast Population by Zone Exhibit A-1: Eglinton Corridor Traffic Zones with Updated 2031 Population Table A-1: 2031 Forecast Population in the Eglinton Corridor by 1996 GTA Traffic Zone

Appendix B – Feeder Bus Changes for the Committed Projects + ESRC Table B-1: TTC Improvements for Scenario 1

Appendix C – Feeder Bus Changes for the Basic Scenario + Extensions of LRTs Table C-1: TTC Improvements for Scenario 2

Eglinton Crosstown LRT 4 Demand Forecasting Report

1 INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE

This report updates the February 2010 ridership forecasts for the Eglinton Crosstown LRT. The report contains the travel demand forecasts for two future scenarios. Scenario 1 has the confirmed Eglinton Crosstown LRT line from Kennedy to Mt Dennis. Scenario 2 has the extended Eglinton Crosstown LRT line from Kennedy to Pearson International Airport. Both scenarios include future (2031) land use in the City of Toronto and surrounding regions.

2 DESCRIPTION OF FORECASTING WORK

The City of Toronto/TTC’s current forecasting process was used to analyse the Eglinton Crosstown LRT. This process involves the following:

- updating the future (2031) land use in the study area - coding the LRT routing options in the City of Toronto and TTC forecasting models - coding any changes in the feeder bus network - running the City of Toronto’s GTA model to produce transit demand matrices - running the TTC’s MADITUC model using the derived transit demand matrices from the GTA model - generating statistics and interpreting the results

The models are coded to represent the 2031 AM peak period transit network, and AM peak period ridership forecasts are produced for the year 2031. The City of Toronto’s GTA Model and the TTC’s MADITUC Model were run for both Scenario 1, with the confirmed LRT lines, and Scenario 2, with the extended LRT lines.

3 LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS

Future year (2031) Toronto population assumptions are from the City of Toronto Official Plan with changes for the “Eglinton Second Platform” work in the Eglinton Crosstown corridor. Future year (2031) Toronto employment is based on the City of Toronto Official Plan estimate of 1.8 million jobs adjusted to match Metrolinx’s forecast Toronto employment of 1.6 million job total. The employment was adjusted by applying a factor to the estimated 2001 to 2031 employment growth in the Official Plan so that the total 2031 Toronto employment equals 1.6 million jobs.

Future year (2031) land use assumptions in other regions are provided by Metrolinx.

Table 3-1: Regional Land Use Assumptions Region 2001 Population 2001 Employment 2031 Population 2031 Employment Toronto 2,450,700 1,453,600 3,124,000 1,640,200 Durham 527,000 166,300 952,100 336,800 York 772,000 386,000 1,507,500 780,100 Peel 981,600 517,800 1,640,000 875,300 Halton 389,300 169,000 780,100 390,000 Hamilton 498,100 192,400 659,700 302,200 TOTAL 5,618,700 2,885,100 8,663,400 4,324,600

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Future land use at the traffic zone level was used in the GTA model to generate trips originating from each zone and destined to each zone.

4 TRANSIT NETWORK ASSUMPTIONS

Two network scenarios were modeled. Scenario 1 (Committed Projects + ESRC) includes the committed alignments of the Eglinton Crosstown, Finch West and Sheppard East LRT lines with the Electrification Study Reference Case. Scenario 2 (Basic Scenario + Extensions of LRTs) is the same a scenario one except the LRT lines are extended, and a few feeder bus routes are adjusted.

The committed alignment of the Eglinton Crosstown LRT would run along Eglinton Avenue between Kennedy Station and Mt Dennis Station (west of Black Creek). The extended alignment of the Eglinton Crosstown LRT would run along Eglinton Avenue between Kennedy Station and Pearson International Airport. The Eglinton Crosstown LRT is coded to operate at a 4-minute frequency and at an average speed of 25km/h when above ground and at 32km/h along the underground section. The LRT will operate underground between Laird Drive and Mt Dennis Station. Along this section the LRT will stop at the following stations: Laird, Bayview, Mt Pleasant, Yonge, Avenue Rd, Chaplin, Bathurst, Eglinton West Station, Oakwood, Dufferin, Caledonia, and Keele.

The model runs include the improvements listed in Table 4-1. The model runs also include numerous feeder bus changes to provide connectivity to the LRT lines. Eglinton Crosstown LRT 6 Demand Forecasting Report

Table 4-1: 2031 Network Improvements Ridership Task Force Extended Projects Ridership Task Force Basic Projects Scenario 2 Route Network Scenario 1 "Basic Scenario + Extensions of "Committed Projects + ESRC" Committed LRTs" Toronto Funded LRT* Kennedy Station to Pearson International Kennedy Station to Mt Dennis with GO Rail Eglinton Crosstown LRT Airport with GO Rail connections at Mt connections at Mt Dennis and Caledonia Dennis and Caledonia Humber College to Finch W Station (no Pearson International Airport to Yonge- Finch West LRT interaction with Barrie GO) Finch Station (no interaction with Barrie GO) Don Mills Station to Morningside with GO Don Mills Station to Meadowvale with GO Sheppard East LRT Rail connection at Agincourt GO Station Rail connection at Agincourt GO Station Toronto Unfunded LRT Broadview Streetcar Broadview Station - Unwin Broadview Station - Unwin Waterfront King Streetcar Spadina - Commissioners Spadina - Commissioners Unwin Streetcar Union Station - Unwin via Queens Quay Union Station - Unwin via Queens Quay Union Station - Queen St. East via Queens Union Station - Queen St. East via Queens Leslieville Streetcar Quay Quay Subway/RT Replaced with Bloor-Danforth Subway Replaced with Bloor-Danforth Subway Scarborough RT extension to Sheppard via McCowan extension to Sheppard via McCowan alignment alignment Spadina Subway Extension Downsview to Vaughan Corporate Centre Downsview to Vaughan Corporate Centre 905 region BRT/LRT Finch - Newmarket (mixed traffic between Finch - Newmarket (mixed traffic between VIVA Yonge 19th and Mulock) 19th and Mulock) Peel/York Boundary- Locust Hill (Markham); Peel/York Boundary- Locust Hill (Markham); VIVA - Highway 7 mixed traffic at western and eastern ends mixed traffic at western and eastern ends (west of Helen and east of Unionville GO) (west of Helen and east of Unionville GO) Queen Street Zum As per today's service. As per today's service. As per today's service (Zum + MiExpress + As per today's service (Zum + MiExpress + Hurontario local), with addition of 403 Transitway local), with addition of 403 Transitway services. services. Durham-Scarborough As per today's Durham Pulse service. As per today's Durham Pulse service. 403 Transitway (Mississauga Eight local Mississauga and ten GO bus Eight local Mississauga and ten GO bus BRT) routes routes GO Rail Extensions Lakeshore West St. Catharines - Union Station (ESRC) St. Catharines - Union Station (ESRC) Lakeshore East Bowmanville - Union Station (ESRC) Bowmanville - Union Station (ESRC) Kitchener - Union Station (ESRC) with Kitchener - Union Station (ESRC) with Georgetown (Kitchener) connection to Eglinton Crosstown LRT at Mt connection to Eglinton Crosstown LRT at Mt Dennis Station Dennis Station Allendale - Union Station (ESRC) with Allendale - Union Station (ESRC) with Barrie - Bradford connection to Eglinton Crosstown LRT at connection to Eglinton Crosstown LRT at Caledonia Caledonia Stouffville (Lincolnville) Lincolnville GO - Union Station (ESRC) Lincolnville GO - Union Station (ESRC) Richmond Hill Bloomington - Union Station (ESRC) Bloomington - Union Station (ESRC) Milton (Cambridge) Milton - Union Station (ESRC) Milton - Union Station (ESRC)

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5 FORECAST RESULTS

This section presents the Eglinton Crosstown LRT transit forecasts for the year 2031.

Comparison of Original and Updated Model Results

Table 5-1 compares the peak passenger demand per hour and the total boardings from the original February 2010 forecast work to the updated December 2013 forecast work. The extended Kennedy Station to Pearson International Airport alignment of the Eglinton Crosstown LRT is used for both model runs in this comparison.

Table 5-1: Comparison with Previous 2031 Eglinton Crosstown LRT Forecast Kenndey Station to Pearson International Airport Alignment

AM Peak Passengers per Hour Annual Daily Model Run Boardings Boardings Eastbound Westbound (millions)

February 2010 5,400 4600 170,000 52 Report December 2013 5,700 6,000 194,000 59 Report

Difference 300 1,400 24,000 7

The December 2013 model results show an overall increase in total boardings and peak passenger demand per hour in both directions. The increase in forecast 2031 population in the Eglinton corridor causes the increase in ridership on the Eglinton Crosstown LRT. The slight increase in the Eglinton Crosstown coded speed in the underground section from 30 km/h to 32 km/h would also result in more riders on the LRT. Finally, network differences, such as the absence of the Jane LRT and Don Mills LRT could also be affecting the Eglinton Crosstown LRT ridership.

Updated Eglinton Crosstown LRT Model Results

Table 5-2 compares the results of the two Eglinton Crosstown LRT alignments in the updated model runs.

Table 5-2: 2031 Eglinton Crosstown Forecast AM Peak Daily Annual Boardings Alignment Passengers per Boardings (millions) Hour

Kennedy to Mt 5,500 162,000 50 Dennis Kennedy to 6,000 194,000 59 Pearson Airport

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The AM peak hour volume is about 5,500 for Scenario 1 with the confirmed LRT lines. This peak hour volume occurs westbound just east of Eglinton station. Daily boardings are estimated to be 162,000 with an annual ridership of about 50 million.

The AM peak hour volume is about 6,000 for Scenario 2 with the extended LRT lines. This peak hour volume occurs westbound just east of Eglinton station. Daily boardings are estimated to be 194,000 with an annual ridership of about 59 million.

The forecast passengers boarding, alighting and travelling from each station on the Eglinton Crosstown in Scenario 1, with the confirmed LRT lines, are shown in the Table 5-3 and Table 5-4 on the following page. Minor adjustments were made at a few stations to balance the total passengers boarding and alighting in each direction.

Table 5-3: Eastbound Eglinton Crosstown LRT Table 5-4: Westbound Eglinton Crosstown LRT (Committed Projects + ESRC) (Committed Projects + ESRC) Eastbound Westbound Link Link Station Ons Offs Volume Station Ons Offs Volume Mt Dennis 2600 0 2600 Kennedy 2500 0 2500 Keele 900 250 3250 Ionview 250 0 2750 Caledonia 550 100 3700 Birchmount 300 300 2750 Dufferin 900 300 4300 Warden 350 300 2800 Oakwood 450 100 4650 Lebovic 50 50 2800 Eglinton West 1250 1850 4050 Pharmacy 150 50 2900 Bathurst 650 300 4400 Victoria Park 700 300 3300 Chaplin 200 250 4350 Bermondsey 400 150 3550 Avenue Rd 350 250 4450 Wynford 400 50 3900 Yonge 1550 2600 3400 Ferrand 100 50 3950 Mt Pleasant 250 1100 2550 Don Mills 1000 600 4350 Bayview 150 550 2150 Leslie 150 100 4400 Laird 50 250 1950 Laird 650 150 4900 Leslie 100 150 1900 Bayview 750 550 5100 Don Mills 150 900 1150 Mt Pleasant 800 400 5500 Ferrand 0 50 1100 Yonge 1000 3050 3450 Wynford 150 50 1200 Avenue Rd 150 500 3100 Bermondsey 100 150 1150 Chaplin 100 300 2900 Victoria Park 150 250 1050 Bathurst 400 350 2950 Pharmacy 100 0 1150 Eglinton West 500 1450 2000 Lebovic 50 0 1200 Oakwood 150 100 2050 Warden 100 250 1050 Dufferin 250 600 1700 Birchmount 200 200 1050 Caledonia 100 200 1600 Ionview 0 50 1000 Keele 100 800 900 Kennedy 0 1000 0 Mt Dennis 0 900 0

The forecast numbers of passengers boarding, alighting and travelling from each station on the Eglinton Crosstown in Scenario 2, with the extended LRT lines, are shown in the Table 5-5 and Table 5-6 below. Minor adjustments were made at a few stations to balance the total passengers boarding and alighting in each direction.

The eastbound AM peak hour passengers boarding at Pearson Airport include an additional 250 riders who were not reflected in the modelling runs. These 250 Eglinton Crosstown riders are based on an analysis of air passenger travel on the TTC. The additional 250 passengers are Eglinton Crosstown LRT 9 Demand Forecasting Report

distributed proportionally amongst the eastbound alighting numbers.

Table 5-5: Eastbound Eglinton Crosstown LRT Table 5-6: Westbound Eglinton Crosstown LRT (Basic Scenario + Extensions of LRTs) (Basic Scenario + Extensions of LRTs) Eastbound Westbound Link Link Station Ons Offs Volume Station Ons Offs Volume Pearson Airport 250 0 250 Kennedy 2650 0 2650 Silver Dart 0 0 250 Ionview 200 0 2850 Convair 100 0 350 Birchmount 300 300 2850 Commerce 50 0 400 Warden 350 250 2950 Renforth 450 0 850 Lebovic 50 0 3000 Rangoon 0 0 850 Pharmacy 150 50 3100 East Mall 150 0 1000 Victoria Park 800 200 3700 Martin Grove 300 0 1300 Bermondsey 450 150 4000 Widdicombe 50 0 1350 Wynford 500 50 4450 Kipling 400 100 1650 Ferrand 100 100 4450 Wincott/ Bermersyde 50 0 1700 Don Mills 1000 600 4850 Islington 300 150 1850 Leslie 200 150 4900 Russell/Eden Valley 100 0 1950 Laird 650 100 5450 Royal York 200 50 2100 Bayview 650 550 5550 Mulham 100 0 2200 Mt Pleasant 800 350 6000 Scarlett 350 0 2550 Yonge 1200 3250 3950 Jane 850 150 3250 Avenue Rd 200 450 3700 Mt Dennis 800 100 3950 Chaplin 200 300 3600 Keele 800 300 4450 Bathurst 400 350 3650 Caledonia 500 50 4900 Eglinton West 850 1450 3050 Dufferin 800 300 5400 Oakwood 250 100 3200 Oakwood 450 100 5750 Dufferin 450 550 3100 Eglinton West 1050 2350 4450 Caledonia 150 200 3050 Bathurst 700 300 4850 Keele 200 750 2500 Chaplin 150 250 4750 Mt Dennis 200 300 2400 Avenue Rd 300 200 4850 Jane 350 350 2400 Yonge 1500 2700 3650 Scarlett 200 50 2550 Mt Pleasant 250 1050 2850 Mulham 100 0 2650 Bayview 100 550 2400 Royal York 150 100 2700 Laird 50 300 2150 Russell/Eden Valley 50 50 2700 Leslie 50 150 2050 Islington 200 350 2550 Don Mills 150 950 1250 Wincott/ Bermersyde 50 50 2550 Ferrand 0 50 1200 Kipling 200 450 2300 Wynford 200 50 1350 Widdicombe 50 50 2300 Bermondsey 100 150 1300 Martin Grove 50 300 2050 Victoria Park 200 250 1250 East Mall 50 150 1950 Pharmacy 50 0 1300 Rangoon 0 0 1950 Lebovic 50 0 1350 Renforth 100 700 1350 Warden 100 300 1150 Commerce 0 550 800 Birchmount 250 200 1200 Convair 0 0 800 Ionview 0 50 1150 Silver Dart 0 100 700 Kennedy 0 1150 0 Pearson Airport 0 700 0

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Forecasts for activity at major intersections along the route were produced especially for underground stop locations to help in sizing the station platforms. These tables are only intended to give an order of magnitude estimate of customers’ movements at the stations.

Table 5-7: Kennedy Station - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activity (Basic Scenario + Extensions of LRTs) TO ROUTE Kennedy Station EGLINTON WALK GRAND Transfers BUS B-D SUBWAY GO RAIL LRT OUT TOTAL FROM ROUTE DIR EB WB WB BUS 130 170 4100 1520 40 100 6060 EB 430 0 0 120 10 110 670 B-D SUBWAY WB 80 0 0 700 0 90 870 EGLINTON LRT EB 650 200 180 0 40 80 1150 GO RAIL 10 0 210 80 0 60 360 WALK IN 170 190 2550 230 10 0 3150 GRAND TOTAL 1470 560 7040 2650 100 440 12260

Table 5-8: Victoria Park & Eglinton - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activ ity (Basic Scenario + Extensions of LRTs)

Victoria Park & Eglinton TO ROUTE WALK GRAND Transfers BUS EGLINTON LRT OUT TOTAL FROM ROUTE DIR EB WB BUS 10 100 580 90 780 EB 170 0 0 100 270 EGLINTON LRT WB 130 0 0 100 230 WALK IN 80 70 230 0 380 GRAND TOTAL 390 170 810 290 1660

Table 5-9: Don Mills & Eglinton - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activity (Basic Scenario + Extensions of LRTs)

Don Mills & Eglinton TO ROUTE WALK GRAND Transfers BUS EGLINTON LRT OUT TOTAL FROM ROUTE DIR EB WB BUS 140 120 790 190 1240 EB 560 0 0 360 920 EGLINTON LRT WB 360 0 0 260 620 WALK IN 30 30 220 0 280 GRAND TOTAL 1090 150 1010 810 3060

Eglinton Crosstown LRT 11 Demand Forecasting Report

Table 5-10: Eglinton Station - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activity (No walk in/out adjustments) (Basic Scenario + Extensions of LRTs) Eglinton Station TO ROUTE WALK GRAND Transfers BUS EGLINTON LRT YONGE SUBWAY OUT TOTAL FROM ROUTE DIR EB WB NB SB BUS 0 0 0 50 320 90 460 EB 0 0 0 630 1210 800 2640 EGLINTON LRT WB 0 0 0 700 1700 860 3260 YONGE NB 40 940 480 0 0 2120 3580 SUBWAY SB 0 410 490 0 0 1120 2020 WALK IN 40 160 240 470 1970 0 2880 GRAND TOTAL 80 1510 1210 1850 5200 4990 14840

Table 5-11: Eglinton Station - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activity (W alk in/out adjustments ) (Basic Scenario + Extensions of LRTs) Eglinton Station TO ROUTE WALK GRAND Transfers BUS YONGE SUBWAY EGLINTON LRT OUT TOTAL FROM ROUTE DIR NB SB EB WB BUS 0 50 320 0 0 90 460 YONGE NB 40 0 0 840 430 2270 3580 SUBWAY SB 0 0 0 360 470 1200 2030 EB 0 620 1170 0 0 800 2590 EGLINTON LRT WB 0 680 1600 0 0 860 3140 WALK IN 40 500 2100 160 240 0 3040 GRAND TOTAL 80 1850 5190 1360 1140 5220 14840

Tab le 5-12: Eglinton West Station - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activity (Basic Scenario + Extensions of LRTs) Eglinton West Station TO ROUTE UNIV-SPADINA WALK GRAND Transfers BUS EGLINTON LRT SUBWAY OUT TOTAL FROM ROUTE DIR EB WB NB SB BUS 0 0 0 150 140 20 310 EB 0 0 0 290 1930 70 2290 EGLINTON LRT WB 0 0 0 570 800 80 1450 UNIV-SPADINA NB 10 380 640 0 0 130 1160 SUBWAY SB 10 450 160 0 0 50 670 WALK IN 10 220 50 130 680 0 1090 GRAND TOTAL 30 1050 850 1140 3550 350 6970

Eglinton Crosstown LRT 12 Demand Forecasting Report

Table 5-13: Caledonia & Eglinton - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activity (Basic Scenario + Extensions of LRTs)

Caledonia & Eglinton TO ROUTE WALK GRAND Transfers BUS EGLINTON LRT GO RAIL OUT TOTAL FROM ROUTE DIR EB WB BUS 0 30 10 0 10 50 EB 10 0 0 0 60 70 EGLINTON LRT WB 10 0 0 0 200 210 GO RAIL 0 30 10 0 0 40 WALK IN 10 440 150 0 0 600 GRAND TOTAL 30 500 170 0 270 970

Table 5-14: Mt Dennis Station - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activity – Scenario 1 (Committed Projects + ESRC)

Mt Dennis Station TO ROUTE WALK GRAND Transfers BUS EGLINTON LRT GO RAIL OUT TOTAL FROM ROUTE DIR EB WB BUS 50 2170 0 50 30 2300 EB 0 0 0 0 0 0 EGLINTON LRT WB 830 0 0 40 30 900 GO RAIL 10 280 0 0 40 330 WALK IN 20 140 0 60 0 220 GRAND TOTAL 910 2590 0 150 100 3750

Table 5-15: Mt Dennis Station - 2031 AM Peak Hour Activity – Scenario 2 (Basic Scenario + Extensions of LRTs)

Mt Dennis Station TO ROUTE WALK GRAND Transfers BUS EGLINTON LRT GO RAIL OUT TOTAL FROM ROUTE DIR EB WB BUS 10 570 160 20 50 810 EB 30 0 0 30 30 90 EGLINTON LRT WB 210 0 0 30 30 270 GO RAIL 10 70 0 0 30 110 WALK IN 0 160 30 50 0 240 GRAND TOTAL 260 800 190 130 140 1520

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6 SUMMARY

This report documents updated ridership forecasts for the Eglinton Crosstown LRT. The documentation includes total boardings, link volumes and passenger activity at specific Eglinton Crosstown LRT stations. The specific station forecasts were produced to assist in the designs of the stations.

Eglinton Crosstown LRT 14 Demand Forecasting Report

Appendix A – 2031 Forecast Population by Zone

Table A-1: 2031 Forecast Population in the Eglinton Corridor by 1996 GTA Traffic Zone 2031 Population 1996 GTA Updated Traffic Zone Original (Preliminary) * 81 11017 10423 82 7762 7364 85 0 0 103 11885 13095 104 7231 8260 113 4290 7289 114 3629 3366 115 7313 7487 116 5022 4348 117 5651 5021 118 5636 6243 119 9720 12137 120 7160 6331 121 11872 11992 122 3952 5004 132 3563 3297 133 9015 8567 134 2703 2832 135 3746 3643 136 2783 3417 137 2286 4630 138 4327 4842 139 8840 8860 170 6397 5958 177 10961 7928 184 5972 5601 190 3323 3106 191 7330 8082 200 283 256 267 12495 17940 268 13018 22695 276 4405 4405 277 1292 1292 278 5465 6056 279 5719 7899 280 908 945 281 3291 3427 282 11648 9341 284 7779 6664 285 5426 5921 286 16657 29746 287 7419 15925 288 10167 12875 289 6409 7606 290 3495 3178 Eglinton Crosstown LRT 15 Demand Forecasting Report

Table A-1: 2031 Forecast Population in the Eglinton Corridor by 1996 GTA Traffic Zone - Continued 2031 Population 1996 GTA Updated Traffic Zone Original (Preliminary) * 292 4350 4523 303 3118 4243 346 2594 3515 347 20550 24333 348 8991 10761 349 7391 7391 350 4833 5472 351 6016 6260 392 8568 11457 393 5354 6910 394 7275 9989 400 3469 3469 410 14388 14388 411 8016 9424 412 9501 9501 Total 403676 466930 *The updated population was created under tight time constraints and should be considered preliminary.

Eglinton Crosstown LRT 16 Demand Forecasting Report

Eglinton Crosstown LRT 17 Demand Forecasting Report

Appendix B – Feeder Bus Changes for the Committed Projects + ESRC

Table B-1: TTC Improvements for Scenario 1 Ridership Task Force Basic Projects Scenario Scenario 1 "Committed Projects + ESRC" Toronto LRT Eglinton Crosstown LRT Kennedy Station to Mt Dennis+Mt Dennis and Caledonia GO Finch West LRT Humber College to Finch W Station, no interaction with Barrie GO Sheppard East LRT Don Mills Station to Morningside (stops at Agincourt GO) Subway/RT Scarborough RT BD Subway extension to Sheppard via McCowan alignment Spadina Subway Downsview to Vaughan Corporate Centre

5 EGLINTON line New LRT service along Eglinton from Kennedy Station to Mt Dennis Station (just east of Weston Road)

32 EGLINTON WEST bus service shortened to operate Renforth Gateway Station to Mt Dennis Station. AM peak service every five minutes.

34 EGLINTON EAST bus service renamed 34 EGLINTON. Service operates Mount Dennis Station to Don Mills & Eglinton Station, via Eglinton-Yonge and Eglinton West stations. Local AM peak service every 15 min.

89 WESTON bus service revised to serve Mount Dennis Station in both directions, via Weston/Black Creek/Eglinton/Weston. Local AM peak service every five minutes, express AM peak service every ten minutes.

35 JANE (Jane Stn-Steeles) local bus split into two routes. 35 JANE (Mount Dennis Stn-Pioneer Village Stn) would operate both ways via Jane, Eglinton to/from Mount Dennis Station. AM peak service every three minutes. New 19 JANE SOUTH (Jane Stn-Mount Dennis Stn) route would operate both ways via Jane, Eglinton to/from Mount Dennis Station. AM peak service every six minutes.

35E JANE EXPRESS bus service would operate from Mount Dennis Station to Pioneer Village Station via Eglinton, Jane, Steeles both ways. AM peak service every ten minutes.

New 170 EMMETT bus service would operate to/from Mount Dennis Station, via Eglinton, Emmett, Jane, Eglinton. AM peak service every 15 min.

161 ROGERS RD would be operated to Mount Dennis Station, both ways via Rogers, Weston, and Eglinton. AM peak service every 8 minutes. Service west of Jane replaced by revised 171 MOUNT DENNIS.

168 SYMINGTON would be extended from Avon Loop to Mount Dennis Station, both ways via Weston and Eglinton. AM peak service every 4 minutes.

71 RUNNYMEDE (Runnymede Stn-Industry St) bus service would operate via Mount Dennis Station, both ways via Rockcliffe, Lambton, Weston, Ray, Industry, Mount Dennis Garage,

Eglinton Crosstown LRT 18 Demand Forecasting Report

Industry, Todd Bayliss, Trethewey, Black Creek, Eglinton, and return via the reverse routing. AM peak service every 15 minutes.

171 MOUNT DENNIS bus service would be changed to operate from Mount Dennis Station via south on Black Creek, west on Humber Boulevard, west on Alliance, north on Jane, east on Lambton, south on Rockcliffe, east on Alliance, east on Cliff, east on Cordella, east on Louvain, east on Humber Boulevard, north on Black Creek. AM peak service every 20 minutes.

405 ETOBICOKE COMMUNITY BUS service unchanged.

41 KEELE (Keele Stn-Pioneer Village Stn) bus service would operate via Keele & Eglinton Station in both directions. Local service every 6 min each way. Express service every 10 min each way.

New 172 TRETHEWEY bus service would operate from Keele & Eglinton Station to Jane & Lawrence over existing 32C branch routing. AM peak service every 4 min.

47 LANSDOWNE bus service would operate via Caledonia Station in both directions. AM peak service every 15 min.

29 DUFFERIN bus service would operate via Dufferin & Eglinton Station in both directions. AM peak service every 3 min.

90 VAUGHAN bus service would be extended to Dufferin & Eglinton Station via Vaughan, Lauder, Keywest, Dufferin, Eglinton, Northcliffe, Vaughan. Existing 90A branch eliminated. AM peak service every 4 min.

63 OSSINGTON, 109 RANEE, no change to existing routing. Would continue to serve Eglinton West Station. 63 OSSINGTON AM peak every 7 min, 109 RANEE AM peak every 12 min.

7 BATHURST bus service would operate via Bathurst & Eglinton Station in both directions. AM peak service every 7 min.

33 FOREST HILL no change to existing routing or service level. Would serve Bathurst & Eglinton Station and Chaplin Station.

14 GLENCAIRN no change to existing routing or service level. Would serve Chaplin Station.

5 AVENUE RD and 61 AVENUE RD NORTH bus routes would operate to Eglinton Station, as they now do. AM peak service every 10 min on 5 AVENUE RD and 7-8 min on 61 AVENUE RD NORTH.

103 MT PLEASANT NORTH bus route would operate to Eglinton Station, as it now does. AM peak service every 10 min. Will serve Mt Pleasant Station in both directions.

74 MT PLEASANT no change to existing routing. AM peak service every 12 min. Would serve Mt Pleasant Station in both directions.

141 DOWNTOWN/MT PLEASANT EXPRESS no change to existing routing. Would serve Mt Pleasant Station in both directions.

11 BAYVIEW bus service would operate via Bayview & Eglinton Station in both directions. AM peak service every 10 min.

Eglinton Crosstown LRT 19 Demand Forecasting Report

51 LESLIE and 56 LEASIDE bus routes would be combined, and would operate from Donlands Station to Steeles, both ways via Donlands, Leaside Bridge, Millwood, Laird, Eglinton, Leslie. Would serve Leslie and Laird stations. AM peak service every 10 min.

100 FLEMINGDON PARK (Broadview Stn-Eglinton Stn) bus route would be shorted to operate between Broadview Station and Don Mills & Eglinton Station. AM peak service every 4-5 min.

54 LAWRENCE EAST bus route would be shorted to operate to Don Mills & Eglinton Station, via Lawrence and Don Mills. AM peak service every 4 min.

25 DON MILLS bus route would serve Don Mills & Eglinton Station in both directions. AM peak service every 2-3 min.

403 SOUTH DON MILLS COMMUNITY BUS route would serve Don Mills & Eglinton Station in both directions.

100 FLEMINGTON PARK route would serve Wynford Station in both directions. AM peak service every 4-5 min.

144 DOWNTOWN/DON VALLEY EXPRESS route no change to existing routing. Would serve Wynford Station in both directions.

91 WOODBINE route no change to existing routing. Would serve Bermondsey Station in both directions. AM peak service every 4-5 min.

24 VICTORIA PARK no change to existing routing. Would serve Victoria Park & Eglinton Station in both directions. AM peak service every 3 min.

70 O’CONNOR route no change to existing routing. Would serve Victoria Park & Eglinton and Eglinton & Pharmacy stations. AM peak service every 15 min.

67 PHARMACY route no change to existing routing. Would serve Eglinton & Pharmacy stations in both directions. AM peak service every 15 min north of Eglinton and every 7-8 min south of Eglinton.

68 WARDEN no change to existing routing. Would serve Warden & Eglinton Station in both directions. AM peak service every 3 min.

17 BIRCHMOUNT no change to existing routing. Would serve Birchmount Station in both directions. AM peak service every 5 min.

113 DANFORTH, 43 KENNEDY, 20 CLIFFSIDE, 57 MIDLAND, 21 BRIMLEY, 12 KINGSTON RD, 86 SCARBOROUGH, 116 MORNINGSIDE no change to existing routing at Kennedy Station.

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7 FINCH WEST line New LRT service along Finch from Finch West Station to Humber College (west of Highway 27)

36 FINCH WEST bus route eliminated.

New 136 MILVAN route would replace 36D (Finch Stn-Milvan and Weston Rd) and 36F (Finch Stn-Milvan and Weston Rd via Fenmar) branches. Would operate one-way loop via Toryork, Milvan, Finch, and Weston. AM peak service every 7 min 30 s.

37A ISLINGTON bus route would be extended from Humberwood Loop to serve terminus of 7 FINCH WEST line at Humber College and Highway 27, via Humberwood, Humberline, Humber College. AM peak service every 7 min 30 s.

39 FINCH EAST bus route extended from Finch Station to Finch West Station. AM peak local service via Finch Avenue every 7 min 30 s.

199 FINCH ROCKET bus route extended from Finch Station to Finch West Station. AM peak express service via Finch Avenue, Dufferin Street, busway every 7 min 30 s. Eglinton Crosstown LRT 21 Demand Forecasting Report

2 BLOOR-DANFORTH line Extended subway service from Kennedy Station to Sheppard Avenue, with new stations at Lawrence & McCowan (Lawrence East Station), Triton & McCowan (Scarborough Centre Station), and Sheppard & McCowan (Sheppard East Station) 6 SHEPPARD EAST line New LRT service along Sheppard from Don Mills Station to Morningside Avenue 3 SCARBOROUGH RT line Existing RT line closed. Existing Lawrence East, Ellesmere, Midland, and McCowan stations closed.

13 ROUGE HILL buses would operate between Rouge Hill GO Station and Sheppard & Morningside, via Lawrence, East, Island, Sheppard, Grand Marshall, Morningside, and return. AM peak service every 15 min. Weekend service would operate via Toronto Zoo.

Bus service on Sheppard between Don Mills Station and Sheppard-Yonge Station would continue as renamed 85 SHEPPARD route, with no change to service levels.

190 SCARBOROUGH CENTRE ROCKET bus service discontinued.

No change at Sheppard Avenue to 25 DON MILLS, 24 VICTORIA PARK, 24A VICTORIA PARK, 224 VICTORIA PARK, 167 PHARMACY NORTH, 10 VAN HORNE, 68 WARDEN, 17 BIRCHMOUNT, 43 KENNEDY, 57 MIDLAND, 21 BRIMLEY, 102 MARKHAM RD, 116 MORNINGSIDE, 132 MILNER or 86 SCARBOROUGH routes.

131 NUGGET, 169 HUNTINGWOOD, 130 MIDDLEFIELD, 199 FINCH ROCKET bus routes shorted to operate to Sheppard East Station. No service on these routes south of Sheppard Avenue.

129 MCCOWAN NORTH bus route continues to operate Major Mackenzie/Steeles to Scarborough Centre Station, serving Sheppard East Station in both directions.

No change at Scarborough Centre Station to 129 MCCOWAN NORTH, 9 BELLAMY, 134 PROGRESS, 133 NEILSON, 38 HIGHLAND CREEK, 16 MCCOWAN, 21 BRIMLEY, 43 KENNEDY, 132 MILNER bus routes.

131E NUGGET bus service discontinued, Sheppard Ave-Kennedy Station.

95E YORK MILLS Express bus service changed to operate via Scarborough Centre Station in both directions via Brimley, Triton, McCowan.

16 MCCOWAN bus route continues to operate Scarborough Centre Station-Kennedy Station, serving Lawrence East Station in both directions.

54 LAWRENCE EAST bus route continues to operate Starspray/Orton Park-Eglinton Station, serving Lawrence East Station in both directions. 1 YONGE-UNIVERSITY line Extended subway service from existing Downsview Station to Highway 7

Stations: Sheppard West Station (current Downsview Station, renamed), new stations Downsview Park Station, Finch West Station, York University Station, Pioneer Village Station, Highway 407 Station, Vaughan Metropolitan Centre Station.

York University Busway, north-south portion, between Murray Ross Parkway and York Eglinton Crosstown LRT 22 Demand Forecasting Report

Boulevard, closed and demolished.

35 JANE (Mount Dennis Station-Pioneer Village Stn) bus service would operate both ways via Jane, Eglinton, Steeles. AM peak service every three minutes. Every third bus would operate both ways via Hullmar as a 35A (Mount Dennis Stn-Pioneer Village Stn via Hullmar).

35E JANE EXPRESS bus service would operate from Mount Dennis Station to Pioneer Village Station via Eglinton, Jane, Steeles both ways. AM peak service every ten minutes.

35D JANE (Jane Stn-Langstaff) bus service discontinued, and replaced by YRT route.

41 KEELE bus service would operate to Pioneer Village Station via north on Keele, west on Pond, north on Ian Macdonald Boulevard to Pioneer Village Station. Return via the reverse routing. Local service every 6 min each way. Express service every 10 min each way. Route would serve on-street stops at Keele & Eglinton Station, and via bus terminal in both directions at Finch West Station.

117 ALNESS bus service no change to existing routing. AM peak service every 7 min.

107 KEELE NORTH bus service renamed 107 CHESSWOOD. From Downsview Station to Pioneer Village Station, serving Bakersfield and Petrolia industrial areas. West on Sheppard north on Chesswood, east and north on Champaign, west on busway to Finch West Station, north on Keele, east on Canarctic, north on Petrolia, west on Steeles to Pioneer Village Station. Return via the reverse routing. All service north of Steeles Avenue would become a separate YRT route. AM peak service every 15 min.

60 STEELES WEST bus service would operate via Pioneer Village Station, in both directions. Local service Finch Station-Highway 27, express service Finch Station-Pioneer Village Station. AM peak local service every 3 min, express service every 10 min.

106 YORK UNIVERSITY bus service would operate to Pioneer Village Station and would be renamed 106 SENTINEL. Would follow present 106 routing, operating to Pioneer Village Station via north on Sentinel, west and north on Pond to Pioneer Village Station. Return via the reverse routing. AM peak service every 6 min.

196 YORK UNIVERSITY ROCKET bus service would be eliminated. Service east of Sheppard West Station would be replaced by 194 SHEPPARD ROCKET bus service.

194 SHEPPARD ROCKET bus service would operate between Sheppard-Yonge and Sheppard West stations, via Sheppard, stopping only at the stations and at Bathurst Street. AM peak service every 10 min.

105 DUFFERIN NORTH bus service eliminated, and replaced by YRT service north of Steeles, and by increased 117 ALNESS service south of Steeles.

104 FAYWOOD bus service no change to routing.

108 DOWNSVIEW bus service renamed 108 DRIFTWOOD. Would follow present 108 routing from Downsview Station to Finch and Driftwood, and would operate to Pioneer Village Station via north, east, north, and west on Driftwood, north on Jane, east on Shoreham, north and east on Ian Macdonald Boulevard, north on Founders Road to Pioneer Village Station. Return via the reverse routing. AM peak service every 7 min.

Eglinton Crosstown LRT 23 Demand Forecasting Report

84 SHEPPARD WEST bus service will continue to operate both ways via Sheppard West Station. Buses on the 84D (Sheppard-Yonge Stn-Steeles via Oakdale) branch would be extended to operate to Pioneer Village Station, instead of terminating at Jane & Steeles. AM peak service every 20 min.

Eglinton Crosstown LRT 24 Demand Forecasting Report

Appendix C – Feeder Bus Changes for the Basic Scenario + Extensions of LRTs

Table C-1: TTC Improvements for Scenario 2 Ridership Task Force Extended Projects Scenario Scenario 2 "Basic Scenario + extensions of committed LRTs" Toronto LRT Eglinton Crosstown LRT Kennedy Station to Pearson +Mt Dennis and Caledonia GO Finch West LRT Pearson to Yonge-Finch Station, no interaction with Barrie GO Sheppard East LRT Don Mills Station to Meadowvale (stops at Agincourt GO) Subway/RT Scarborough RT BD Subway extension to Sheppard via McCowan alignment Spadina Subway Downsview to Vaughan Corporate Centre

5 EGLINTON line New LRT service along Eglinton from Kennedy Station to Pearson Airport, via Eglinton Avenue and Renforth Gateway Station. Surface centre-of-the-road operation from Weston Road to Renforth Gateway Station.

32 EGLINTON WEST bus service eliminated.

35 JANE (Jane Stn-Pioneer Village Stn) local and express bus route, operating via Jane & Eglinton Station in both directions. Service removed from Mount Dennis Station. AM peak local service every three minutes. AM peak express service every ten minutes.

19 JANE SOUTH (Jane Stn-Mount Dennis Stn) route eliminated, and replaced by revised 35 JANE (Jane Stn-Pioneer Village Stn) route.

New 170 EMMETT bus service would operate to/from Jane & Eglinton Station, via Eglinton, Emmett, Jane. Service removed from Mount Dennis Station. AM peak service every 15 min.

161 ROGERS RD would be operated to Mount Dennis Station, both ways via Rogers, Weston, and Eglinton. AM peak service every 8 minutes. Service west of Jane replaced by revised 171 MOUNT DENNIS.

168 SYMINGTON would be extended from Avon Loop to Mount Dennis Station, both ways via Weston and Eglinton. AM peak service every 4 minutes.

71 RUNNYMEDE (Runnymede Stn-Industry St) bus service would operate via Mount Dennis Station, both ways via Rockcliffe, Lambton, Weston, Ray, Industry, Mount Dennis Garage, Industry, Todd Bayliss, Trethewey, Black Creek, Eglinton, and return via the reverse routing. AM peak service every 15 minutes.

171 MOUNT DENNIS bus service would be changed to operate from Mount Dennis Station via Eglinton Crosstown LRT 25 Demand Forecasting Report

south on Black Creek, west on Humber Boulevard, west on Alliance, north on Jane, east on Lambton, south on Rockcliffe, east on Alliance, east on Cliff, east on Cordella, east on Louvain, east on Humber Boulevard, north on Black Creek. AM peak service every 20 minutes.