Santa Ana General Plan Buildout Methodology June 2020

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Santa Ana General Plan Buildout Methodology June 2020 Santa Ana General Plan Buildout Methodology June 2020 Purpose, Design, and Limitations The following summarizes the methodology and factors used to calculate existing and buildout conditions for purposes of the General Plan and its analysis through an environmental impact report. All figures are estimates generated using the best available data for analysis at a citywide level, with additional detail provided by specific planning/focus areas and traffic analysis zones. Whenever possible, the figures generated were derived from authoritative data sources, such as the U.S. Census or California Department of Finance. Such sources are subject to their own error rates and may summarize data at different geographic levels or in different categories. When more precise data was not available, figures generated for existing and projected figures were compared to aggregated or citywide totals from authoritative sources, understanding that such comparisons are primarily for the purpose of determining order-of-magnitude accuracy. It is important to note that the buildout figures represent an informed but estimated projection of a future condition. The actual construction of development will likely vary by parcel and planning area in terms of location and mix of uses. The analysis in the General Plan Environmental Impact Report provides a programmatic assessment of potential impacts, enabling tiering for future projects that are consistent with the assumptions on some CEQA topics (other project-level impacts will still need to be evaluated through the appropriate environmental clearance under CEQA). Existing Conditions Housing Units and Building Square Footage Existing conditions figures (see Table 1) reflects the built environment as of January 2020, using parcel data from the City of Santa Ana Planning Information Network, augmented by projects listed as already under construction in the City’s January 2020 monthly development project report (see Table 5). Households and Population The number of households was generated by multiplying the total number of housing units by the occupancy rate as reported by the California Department of Finance for 2019 (see source notes in Table 4). Population was generated by multiplying the total number of households by persons per household rates, varying for single family and multi-family units, as reported in the 2018 American Community Survey 1-year estimates (see Table 4). Students The number of K-12 and college students currently attending schools in Santa Ana was obtained from the California Department of Education and Rancho Santiago Community College District, respectively (see Table 5). B-b-1 Santa Ana General Plan Buildout Methodology June 2020 Employment The number of jobs (employment) in Santa Ana was generated by dividing building square footage (by land use) by employment generation factors (see Table 3). The building use and square footage data was obtained from the City of Santa Ana Planning Information Network, augmented by projects listed as already under construction in the City’s January 2020 monthly development project report. The employment generation factors were derived by first dividing the building square footage by factors provided by the City and sourced to the Santa Ana OCP 2002/2006 Interagency Team. The results were compared to total employment figures reported citywide and by industry sector (with rough equivalents identified for each land use category), by the U.S. Census Bureau for 2017. The employment generation factors were adjusted as necessary to bring calculated figures for existing employment generally in line with figures reported by the U.S. Census in 2017. Employed Persons The number of employed persons is calculated exclusively as an input into the Orange County Traffic Analysis Model (OCTAM) to conduct the traffic analysis of the General Plan as part of the environmental impact report. The total estimated number of employed residents varies between different U.S. Census datasets. The Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LEHD) reports data based on W-2 and W-4 forms related to wages and worker’s compensation, while the American Community Survey relies on statistical surveys of self-reported data. The LEHD figures are generally considered more appropriate for traffic analysis purposes since the job information is more consistent and more likely to involve vehicular travel outside of the home. The number of employed persons in Santa Ana was generated by multiplying the total population in households by the percentage of population age 16 and over by the employment-to-population ratio, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau in 2018 (see Table 4). These calculations, drawn from the ACS, are then reduced proportionally to bring figures in line with the total reported by LEHD. Buildout Conditions Proposed Plan In coordination with a General Plan Advisory Group, the City identified five areas suited for new growth and development: South Main Street, Grand Avenue/17th Street, West Santa Ana Boulevard, 55 Freeway/Dyer Road, and South Bristol Street. These five areas are located along major travel corridors, the future OC Streetcar line, and/or linked to the Downtown. In general, many areas currently designated for General Commercial and Professional Office are expanding opportunities for residential development through a proposed change to the Urban Neighborhood or District Center General Plan land use designations. Industrial Flex would be introduced where Industrial land use designations currently exist within each of the five focus areas in order to allow for cleaner industrial and commercial uses with live-work opportunities. There are seven other planning areas that represent specific plans and other special zoning areas that were previously adopted: Adaptive Reuse Overlay (2014), Bristol Street Corridor Specific Plan (1991/2018), Harbor Mixed Use Corridor Specific Plan (2014), MainPlace Specific Plan (2019), Metro East Mixed Use Overlay Zone (2007/2018), Midtown Specific Plan (1996), and Transit Zoning Code Specific Development (2010). The potential for new development in these areas is based on the forecasted buildout at the time of the respective zoning Page 2 of 18 B-b-2 Santa Ana General Plan Buildout Methodology June 2020 document’s adoption, minus the amount of new development built between their adoption date and 2019. The most recent adoption/amendment date for each zoning document is noted above in parentheses. Growth outside of the focus areas and special planning areas is expected to be incremental and limited. Some growth was projected for the professional office surrounding the Orange County Global Medical Center and along Broadway north of the Midtown Specific Plan. Some growth was also projected for the commercial and retail area south of the West Santa Ana Boulevard focus area. Finally, some additional residential development is expected to occur on a small portion (five percent) of single-family and multi-family lots through the construction of second units. Focus Areas Parcels within focus areas were first evaluated for the potential for new uses (units or building square footage), through redevelopment, intensification, and/or turnover. The analysis was conducted by MIG in 2019, in support of the City of Santa Ana, using the City of Santa Ana Planning Information Network as of April 2019. MIG determined the potential based on the building-to-land-value ratio. Those parcels that were vacant or exhibited a building-to-land-value ratio below 1.0 were determined to have potential for new uses. Exceptions include religious and governmental institutions. For parcels without the potential for new uses, existing building square footage (non-residential) and/or existing units (residential) were carried over into future buildout. For parcels with potential for new uses, buildout factors can be found in Table 2. These factors were established by the City, assisted by MIG, based on a comparison of development throughout southern California that matched the vision established for each focus area. MIG identified the density and intensity factors corresponding with such development to inform the City’s focus area buildout factors. After calculating future buildout conditions using the density/intensity factors, PlaceWorks assisted the City in evaluating the potential implications of the potential buildout figures for each focus area, informed by analyses by IBI Group (circulation) and AECOM (market) conducted in 2019 and 2020. PlaceWorks concluded that the City should not assume a maximum theoretical buildout based on maximum density/intensity standards but should forecast and plan for growth beyond current market demand. PlaceWorks recommended that the City apply a buildout factor of 80% to the totals generated using the factors in Table 2 to arrive at buildout projections for 2045 that are realistic, market-friendly, consistent with the visions for each focus area, and more compatible with the proposed roadway network. The following information substantiates the General Plan buildout development assumptions and adjustments. Realistic vs Maximum Theoretical Buildout Density and intensity standards are provided in a general plan to convey the maximum scale and intensity for broad land use categories. Zoning standards are then applied at a parcel level to guide and control density and intensity at a development project level. When calculating buildout, a jurisdiction is permitted to assume that every single
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