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Vulnerability of Water Resources to Climate Change and Human Impact

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Vulnerability of Water Resources to Climate Change and Human Impact University of Birmingham Research Archive e-theses repository This unpublished thesis/dissertation is copyright of the author and/or third parties. The intellectual property rights of the author or third parties in respect of this work are as defined by The Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988 or as modified by any successor legislation. Any use made of information contained in this thesis/dissertation must be in accordance with that legislation and must be properly acknowledged. Further distribution or reproduction in any format is prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder. Abstract Water supplies have been meeting strict experiments all over the world and the tendencies of reducing precipitations and rising temperatures in the arid and semi-arid of the Middle-East region (such as Iran) aggravate this condition during the last few decades. The significant climate changeability of the area creates drought occurrences emerge regular happening in the region which make significant losses in both the environment and economy. Water supply planning is a part of complicated, interdisciplinary progressions including several stakeholders with various attractions, professional knowledge, and preferences. Proper planning needs productive Integrated Water Resource Management models that can respond these complicated troubles. The aim of this study was to develop a structure for applicable and efficient risk control of water supplies through drought. This management structure combines hydrological, socio- economic and water organization models. The methodology has three factors: 1) the statistical possessions of drought characterisation and drought trend in terms of space-time were examined and thresholds of drought warning are evaluated to assist as drivers for control programmes. 2) A water-planning model was applied to combine water accessibility and demand and examine the reliability of the water system to deliver the water to demand sites during the normal and drought episodes. 3) The model was used to estimates the future impacts of climate alteration, through driving them with simulations from an ensemble of statically downscaled CMIP5 model for the severest scenario in the 21st century. Moreover, some potential management plans that decrease the future hazard of water shortage were evaluated. The methods were tested in a case study in the Zayandeh Rud River basin in Iran. The results indicated the important roles of both meteorological and anthropogenic elements on occurrence of drought and water shortages. Projection outcomes recommend that future i temperature increases and precipitation decreases by climate alteration with increasing water demand have the possible to increase drought risks in all time ranges remarkably. The results of the study expose its relevance for combined evaluation of drought that contain a demand analysis approach and the estimation of a climate alteration scenario. Furthermore, the results show prediction of potential future climate change and future drought characterisation can aid decision makers for designing adapted drought control actions to decrease the socio- economic effects of drought reliant on the features of the system. ii Dedication To my beloved parents. iii Acknowledgments It is my pleasure to acknowledge the following people and institutions that contributed directly, or indirectly towards the accomplishment of my PhD programme. First of all, my thanks go to my supervisors, Professor. David Hannah, Dr. Stefan Krause and Dr.Martin Widmann for their continual support, guidance, encouragement, tolerance, patience, and friendship throughout my programme. This thesis was copy-edited for the conventions of language, spelling and grammar by Janet's Proofreading Service. I would like to thank the Ministry of Energy-Iran, Ministry of Agriculture, Iran census Institution, Esfahan Regional Water Institution, Iran Water Resources Institution, Water Engineering Institution of Moshaver Yekom, the Iran Meteorological Agency for providing data and assistance. Also, the koninklijke nederlandse meteorologisch instituut (KNMI) program for making the CMIP5 data available. My heartfelt appreciation goes to my beloved and wonderful family for the, love, prayers, patience, tolerance, support, understanding and the encouragement they gave me throughout this period. This acknowledgment would be grossly incomplete without mentioning the encouragement and support of friends. iv Table of Contents Abstract ....................................................................................................................................... i Dedication ................................................................................................................................ iii Acknowledgments..................................................................................................................... iv List of Illustrations ..................................................................................................................... x List of Tables ........................................................................................................................... xv Abbreviations ......................................................................................................................... xvii Associated Publications .......................................................................................................... xix CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION AND STATEMENT OF AIMS AND OBJECTIVES 20 1.1 Context and Rational.................................................................................................... 20 1.1.1 The state of the worlds’ water resources ..................................................................... 20 1.1.2 The state of water resources in the Middle East .......................................................... 20 1.1.3 The climate, water resources and socio-economic crises in Middle East and Iran ..... 21 1.1.4 The challenges for water resource planning and drought management ...................... 23 1.1.5 Why study the Zayandeh Rud River Basin? ............................................................... 27 1.2 Aims and objectives ..................................................................................................... 29 1.3 Thesis organization ............................................................................................................ 30 CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW: DROUGHTS, DRIVERS, IMPACTS AND THEIR MANAGEMENT ........................................................................................................ 34 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 34 2.2 Drought perceptions and explanations ............................................................................... 34 2.2.1 Meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought............................................... 35 2.3 Drought characterization .................................................................................................... 37 2.3.1 Drought indices ........................................................................................................... 37 2.3.2 Previous research on drought characterization in the world ....................................... 39 2.4 Drought drivers .................................................................................................................. 40 2.4.1 Lack of precipitation and high evapotranspiration ...................................................... 40 2.4.2 Increasing water demand due to urbanization, industrialization and the growth of agribusiness .......................................................................................................................... 40 2.4.3 Climate change ............................................................................................................ 41 2.4.3.1 Research related to climate change in Iran ........................................................... 42 2.4.4 Weak or ineffective drought management .................................................................. 42 2.4.5 Previous research on drought drivers in the world ...................................................... 43 2.5 The impacts and vulnerability of drought in various sectors ............................................. 43 2.5.1 Incidental effects and various pressures ...................................................................... 45 2.5.2 Previous studies on drought impacts in the world....................................................... 45 2.5.3 Climate change impact studies in Iran ........................................................................ 46 2.6 Drought mitigation options ................................................................................................ 47 2.7 Tools requirement for integrated water resource management .......................................... 49 2.7.1 A decision support system (DSS) ............................................................................... 49 2.7.2 The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) Model as an example of DSS ............. 51 v 2.7.2.1 Applications of the WEAP model ........................................................................ 52 2.7.2.2 Applications of the WEAP model in Iran ............................................................. 52 2.8 Research gaps identified ...................................................................................................
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