BÜCHLER, BOYER, DOBRINEVSKAIA, FRÖHLICH, MARTUCCI (2017) – IS THE BRAND LOSING ITS POWER? 17-1230 EN

Guinness Nigeria – Is the Brand Losing its Power?

Case study

Reference No. 17-1230 EN

This case was written by Pierre Boyer, Anastassia Dobrinevskaia, Sara Fröhlich, William Martucci under supervision of Prof. Dr. Jan-Philipp Büchler, at the HEC Paris.

© 2017, CASEM, FH Dortmund, Emil-Figge-Str. 44, 44227 Dortmund, Germany

No part of this publication may be copied, stored, transmitted, reproduced or distributed in any form or medium whatsoever without the permission of the copyright owner.

Abstract

The study illustrates the backgrounds of Guinness Nigeria Plc. Positioning in Africa. The major goal is to develop knowledge about strategy development and marketing strategies in that particular market. Therefore, students get insights about the situation and development in Africa, current business model auf Guinness Nigeria Plc. and general information about the market and competitors. The case has an open question structure, so that it can be used for different learning objectives.

Learning Objectives

• Brand positioning

• Brand identity

• Local adaptation vs. global integration of marketing activities

Target Group

This case study is intended to be used at universities for students studying business administration or international management with specializations in the field of strategy development.

Guinness Nigeria – Is the Brand Losing its Power?

0 BÜCHLER, BOYER, DOBRINEVSKAIA, FRÖHLICH, MARTUCCI (2017) GUINNESS NIGERIA – IS THE BRAND LOSING ITS POWER? 17-1230 EN

How the Market Position Established by Guinness Nigeria Plc. is Beginning to Crumble.

February 2013, the Super Eagles, the Nigerian soccer team, just won the African Cup of Nations and you can find the same black poster everywhere in : "Guinness believed in the Super Eagles, we dared the impossible. Now it’s time to celebrate!" We? Last time we checked Guinness was an Irish brand, with a lucky green leprechaun as an emblem, drunk in all the dark pubs of Dublin. Not anymore! Ghana, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Kenya or Cameroon have two things in common: they are all African countries and they all belong to the top ten Guinness markets in the world.

Throughout the years, Guinness has succeeded in building a brand new image in Africa, far away from the green meadows of its youth, an image personified by the first African TV action hero every living soul knows over there: Michael Power. This black super hero embodies the African dream come true. Thanks to him, Guinness has become a symbol of strength and adventurous spirit everywhere in Africa, associated with vitality, potency, and even fertility to some people: Guinness is African!

Yet, as Seni Adetu, CEO of Guinness Nigeria Plc. and James Buhari, one of his friends and also shareholder of the company, are watching a rerun of the glorious victory of the Super Eagles in a pub downtown Lagos in summer 2014, they tend to disagree on the current situation of Guinness in Nigeria. “What a wonderful success, my dear James! Nowadays, the whole world has its eyes on the Super Eagles and what they see is that Guinness is here to support them, not as a foreign investor, but as a successful African company! We made it my friend, we are the Super Eagles of beer in Africa!”, appreciated Seni Adetu. But for Mr. Buhari the success had a bitter taste: “Seni, I am glad you are congratulating yourself, but I’m not quite as excited as you are! When I first bought my shares, they were very profitable. These profits have been decreasing over the past years and I have the feeling that by now they are diminishing at an incredibly fast pace. Additionally, I heard the situation is going to be even worse for 2014. Tell me, Seni, what is wrong?”. “Come on, don’t worry James, things are fine, enjoy the game!”, answered Mr. Adetu, as he was hard-pressed by his friend’s question, but he promised himself he would find a proper response to give him.

Background in Africa

Guinness’ conquest of the African market is deeply intertwined with the creation of Foreign

Extra Stout (FES), which is the only Guinness one can find in Africa in the regular distribution circuit. It is a very strong beer (almost 8° compared to the 4-5° of regular beer) with a bittersweet, burnt

1 BÜCHLER, BOYER, DOBRINEVSKAIA, FRÖHLICH, MARTUCCI (2017) GUINNESS NIGERIA – IS THE BRAND LOSING ITS POWER? 17-1230 EN chocolate taste.1 At first, FES was created and brewed in in order to be exported to the Caribbean. However, the people there did not really appreciate the creamy taste of their Guinness due to the heat. In 1827, they decided to ship a few cases to Sierra Leone: this was the point at which a tremendous success story began.

From then on, imports on the African continent were growing, with South Africa being Guinness third biggest export market. The wave of independences had already started among African countries when a member of the board, Lord Iveagh, realized something that would become the cornerstone of their development in Africa: Guinness would not be able to make any long-lasting profit on the continent, if local people were not put into a win-win situation and if African people could not benefit from the success of Guinness on its own continent. This was the beginning of Guinness spirit of partnership and mutuality. In 1949, a local subsidiary in Nigeria was built up in order to deal with the imports of FES. But it was just the first step of Guinness settling down in Africa. In October 1962, with the opening of the first brewery in Ikeja, Nigeria, overseas brewing of Guinness products began. The company also started managing its public image on a continent where water is the primary need. Guinness created a program called Water of Life, so as to be seen as a local player, promoting the growth of local economies, and not as a foreign giant invading merely to make profits.

The driver behind the company's success in the market was its strength to believe in Africa, and there is one person who can be seen as the embodiment of this aspect. Lord Alan Lennow-Boyd was appointed Managing Director of Guinness in 1959, after years as minister of state colonial affairs in Churchill’s government. He witnessed several independences of former British colonies and was a friend to a few post-independence leaders such as Nnamdi Azikiwe in Nigeria. When he took office in 1959, he directly undertook a wide program of investment in the commonwealth, as he trusted in its stability and future prosperity, something no one dared to do at that time. He expanded local brewing and when he retired in 1967, more than 40% of FES sold in Africa was brewed in Africa. Today, this rate is almost 100%. Over time, Guinness stayed and kept investing in Africa despite everything, even in the 1980s, when the economy collapsed after years of Civil War and Guinness lost two-thirds of the market in a decade. In 1992, Guinness invested £15 million into Nigeria and everybody thought it was pure madness.2 But it was not, and these huge initial investments are responsible for its bright situation later on.

The Company's Current Business

Guinness' Positioning

1 Cf. Griffiths (2014), p. 141-142. 2 Cf. Griffiths (2014), p.153.

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Influenced by the integrative approach when entering the African market as well as the long, locally intertwined history of the company on the continent, Guinness Africa is, in general, perceived as an iconic African company, which offers high quality brands. In many parts of Africa, it is recognized as a local brew. Today, the product portfolio of Guinness consists of four major segments: spirits, beer, ready-to-drink, and non-alcoholic beverages.

The spirits category includes eight products: The series comprised of Johnnie Walker Black, Red, and Blue as well as Baileys, Vodka, Ciroc, Orijin Bitters, and Master’s Choice.3

The beer segment, Guinness' most famous one is the part of the portfolio, which most strongly focuses on the African market. It consists of the Guinness FES, Guinness Extra Smooth, Harp, Dubic, and Satzenbrau. The Guinness Stout was first imported into Nigeria in the 19th century. In 2005, the Guinness Extra Smooth followed into the Nigerian beer market. With the Harp Lime, a new flavored Harp beer was launched in Nigeria in 2011. Entirely in line with Guinness’ great Nigerian heritage is the Dubic Extra Lager, launched in 2012.4

Thirdly, the ready-to-drink segment contains Smirnoff Ice, Snapp, and Orijin.5

Last but not least, Malta Guinness and Malta Guinness Low Sugar represent Guinness’ non-alcoholic beverage segment. The latter was launched in 2012 as the newest of all products in the Guinness portfolio.6 For Guinness, the importance of the non-alcoholic segment is remarkable. It allows the company to target populations in countries where religion plays a significant role, which is also the case for Africa. Through non-alcoholic beverages, the product line can be suited to the demand of religious customer groups, who often avoid the consumption of alcohol. Today, this type of customers constitutes a promising market for Guinness. With respect to Guinness’ brand and product portfolio, it is inevitable to state that its pricing strategy certainly deviates from that of its major competitors.

In view of the financial means of the African respectively Nigerian population, Guinness positions itself as high-priced quality beer. In fact, it can be regarded as a luxury purchase. The FES, the most popular Guinness in Africa, is sold at a price twice as high as premium lagers. Therefore, a justification for the purchase of the higher priced Guinness must be given.

Organizational Structure

3 Cf. Guinness Nigeria Plc. (2014b). 4 Cf. Guinness Nigeria Plc. (2014d). 5 Cf. Guinness Nigeria Plc. (2014b). 6 Cf. Guinness Nigeria Plc. (2014b).

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The organizational structure of Guinness Nigeria Plc. reflects its underlying principle that most of Guinness Africa’s business is “created in Africa, by African people”.7 The company is led by local managers and 1.332 people were employed by Guinness Nigeria Plc. in 2012, most of them originally from the continent.8

Today, Guinness Overseas Limited owns 54.3% of Guinness Nigeria Plc., and is therefore the largest single shareholder. 38.6% of the corporation are owned by private persons, and the remaining 7.1% belong to various corporate shareholders holding between 0.13% and 2.99%, e.g. BlackRock Fund Advisors and Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc.9 (see Figure 1).

Fig. 1: Ownership structure Guinness Nigeria Plc. (Source: 4-Traders (2014)).

The management, which continuously seeks for highest standards with respect to responsibility, risk management, and corporate governance, is comprised of two major groups:10 first, the Board of Directors, which supervises the management of the business and is responsible for the achievement of the company’s strategic goals as well as its attainability of the desired business performance.11 Second, the Executive Board, which consists of seven multicultural personalities.12

A specificity of Guinness, highly valued by its African and Nigerian consumers, is its production presence in the local market. Nowadays, Guinness Nigeria Plc. has five breweries in Africa. The first

7 Griffiths (2014), p. 9. 8 Cf. Diageo (2014). 9 Cf. 4Traders (2014). 10 Cf. Guinness Nigeria Plc. (2014e). 11 Cf. Guinness Nigeria Plc. (2014a). 12 Cf. Guinness Nigeria Plc. (2014c).

4 BÜCHLER, BOYER, DOBRINEVSKAIA, FRÖHLICH, MARTUCCI (2017) GUINNESS NIGERIA – IS THE BRAND LOSING ITS POWER? 17-1230 EN one established in Lagos in 1962, followed by two in Benin, Ogba, and finally one in Aba in 200413 (see Figure 2).

Its organizational structure combined with a distinctive corporate culture might be one of the reasons why Guinness Nigeria Plc. was awarded the Best Place to Work in Nigeria as well as the Best Multinational Company in Nigeria in 2012.14

Fig. 2: Nigerian production facilities of Guinness and year of construction (Source: Guinness Nigeria Plc. (2014d)).

Marketing Strategies

The success of Guinness in Nigeria can also be attributed to the marketing approach, which the organization has used. In this context, the success of the brand in Nigeria is largely based on two aspects: first, an adaptation to local peculiarities and integration into the country. Second, a solid understanding of the consumers' preferences combined with individualized communication campaigns.15

When first entering the African market, Guinness integrated rather than disrupted. They set up local production sites and partnered with local breweries, which associates the product with the local people and their communities. Through this, they created workplaces and engaged local people, thereby contributing to a development of African communities. The latter also significantly profited from the ability to tax Guinness as a residential organization. Besides the economic aspects, the

13 Cf. Guinness Nigeria Plc. (2014f). 14 Cf. Guinness Nigeria Plc. (2014g). 15 Cf. Kapferer (2008).

5 BÜCHLER, BOYER, DOBRINEVSKAIA, FRÖHLICH, MARTUCCI (2017) GUINNESS NIGERIA – IS THE BRAND LOSING ITS POWER? 17-1230 EN organization significantly contributed to the well-being of its workforce and the country in general. In 2003, Guinness Nigeria started paying the HIV medication for its entire African staff, even after their resignation. Additionally, through the so-called "Water of Life" initiative, the company supports regional issues like the fight against river blindness in Cameron or the installation of hand-dug wells and sanitation in Ghana.

The second major pillar of their success was the fact that Guinness approached the new markets with very consistent and individualized marketing campaigns, which targeted Nigeria with all its peculiarities. Initially, high import taxes on barley led to the use of sorghum as a surrogate.16 This gave the Nigerian Guinness its very distinctive, bitter flavor, which corresponds to the specific local taste. In order to communicate this very regional and adapted product, Guinness created various myths around its products. One of the first and most influential campaigns in this context was the creation of the fictional character and action hero Michael Power, the "African answer to James Bond"17, in 1999 (see Figure 3).

Fig. 3: Michael Power (Source: Griffiths, M. (2014)).

Until 2006, Power was supposed to transport the message that drinking Guinness beer would make men stronger, more powerful, and active. Over time, Power put his catchphrase in phase in many advertising mediums including adventure TV-spots and radio contributions: "Guinness brings out the power in you". All campaigns starring the character supported the first pillar of Guinness' success

16 Cf. Griffith (2014), p. 154. 17 Sonne (2014).

6 BÜCHLER, BOYER, DOBRINEVSKAIA, FRÖHLICH, MARTUCCI (2017) GUINNESS NIGERIA – IS THE BRAND LOSING ITS POWER? 17-1230 EN since they were filmed in Africa involving not only international but also local staff and actors.18 In many cases, the content touched upon pressuring local issues. For example, in the series called Critical Assignment, Power fought against environmental and political issues (see Figure 4).

Fig. 4: Advertisement for the first full-length Critical Assignment movie (Source: Coloribus (2014)).

This again was a sign of the company's willingness to adapt to the continent and target it with an entirely customized approach. This alignment is continued in the new campaign "Made of more", which is currently being rolled out around the world. It captures the thought that drinking Guinness beer reflects certain character traits or emotions, whether it is strength, hope, trust, compassion, or empathy. It is a campaign, which wants to emphasize the point that through drinking Guinness beer, a person can show that there is something special, "more", about her or him. Just like in the situations depictured in the advertisements – friends who play basketball in wheelchairs just to support their friend who actually needs one, an athlete who gives up her spot in the Olympic team to let her sister, who was ill during the trials, compete, and a woman who hopes every single day that her husband is going to return from a military mission (see Figure 5).

18 Cf. Griffith (2014), p. 26.

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Fig. 5: Scenes from the "Made of More" advertisements outside Africa ("Wheelchair", "Barnes Twins", “Empty Chair”) (Source: Youtube (2014b-d)).

Although being a global campaign, "Made of more" has its individual touch in Africa, where it is titled "Made of black". With the latter campaign, Guinness links to the advertisements shown on other continents, but, at the same time, goes back to the roots of the organization's early campaigns starring Michael Power and the aspects of power and physical strength, which he represented (see Figure 6).

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Fig. 6: Scenes from the "Made of Black" advertisement in Africa (Source: Youtube (2014a)).

Financials

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Guinness has been targeting the African market very successfully. However, it is important to consider market developments and financial indicators for a broad view on the success story.

With a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.7% of beer production, the African market has proved as very attractive compared to others. In traditional beer-consuming markets, the beer production has decreased over the past years, falling from 585 mio. hl in 2008 to 533 mio. hl in 2013. This makes Africa the continent with the fastest-growing beer production, followed by 4.2% in Asia and America and Australia with significantly slower development, resp. 1.1% and 0.1%19 (see Figure 7).

Fig. 7: Beer production worldwide across regions, 2008-2013 [mio. hl] (Source: Bart-Haas Group (2014)).

The African continent also shows a very strong development in terms of GDP-growth. The average growth rate from 2011 until 2013 was 4.9%, which is significantly higher than for example the growth rate in Germany, which was 1.5% over the same period20 (see Figure 8). While an average worker in Nigeria has to work 2.2 hours to afford 500 ml of beer, these figures imply that in the future many consumers will have a larger disposable income implying an increase in the potential client base.21 Nigeria will remain a particularly attractive market, since in 2013, judging from the amount of hectoliters consumed, it was the second-largest market in Africa, overtaken by South Africa and

19 Cf. Bart-Haas Group (2014). 20 Cf. The World Bank (2014). 21 Cf The Economist (2014).

10 BÜCHLER, BOYER, DOBRINEVSKAIA, FRÖHLICH, MARTUCCI (2017) GUINNESS NIGERIA – IS THE BRAND LOSING ITS POWER? 17-1230 EN followed by Angola. Nigeria is a particularly attractive market, since in 2012, beer consumption was growing at 8-9% p.a.22

Fig. 8: GDP growth Germany, America, Nigeria, 2011-2013 [%] (Source: The World Bank (2014)).

From 2000 until 2012, the beer production in Nigeria showed a CAGR of 11.8%, which implies that it is a strong growth market in the future as well23 (see Figure 9).

22 Cf. The Premium Times (2014). 23 Cf. Barth-Haas Group (2013), p. 13.

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Fig. 9: Beer production in Nigeria, 2000-2013 [mio. hl] (Source: Bart-Haas Group (2014)).

At the same time, other market players started to establish. By September 2013, Heineken was the largest player in the African market with 71%, Diageo followed with Guinness and 27%. 2% were held by South African Breweries Miller, but they have started growing ever since, leading to a significant competition for Guinness24 (see Figure 10).

Fig. 10: Market shares in Nigeria in September 2013 [%] (Source: The Premium Times (2013)).

This reflects in Guinness Nigeria's revenues and profit in the recent years. The latter fell by 8.7% from 2013 to 2014, with revenues decreasing by 10.8% in the same period. With a decrease of net income by 19.1%, a strong downward trend becomes evident (see Figure 11). These developments also influence the company's shareholders, who have been facing a steady decline of their share values since 2011. While their value at the end of June in 2011 was USD 245, it fell to USD 195 in 2013. Simultaneously, the dividend paid kept decreasing. While in 2011, USD 60.8 million were paid out, shareholders received only USD 25.9 million in 2014.25

24 Cf. The Premium Times (2014). 25 Cf. Bloomberg (2014).

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Fig. 11: Income Statement Guinness Nigeria, 2011-2014 [mio. USD] (Source: Bloomberg (2014)).

Industry and Competition

Nigeria is Africa’s second beer market behind South Africa, and has grown around 20% each year for the last five years, reaching around USD 5.5 billion in 2013. A slight decline in growth was reported last year because of lower household revenues, but the market is still expected to expand a lot. Indeed, alcoholic beverage consumption remains one of the most popular social activities in Nigeria, with beer representing 96% of all alcohol sales in the country. Nigerians only consume 10 liters of beer per head of population every year, which represents a sixth of South Africa’s average per capita beer consumption.26 Moreover, it has a population of 177m people, the largest in Africa, of which 50% live in urban areas.27

Guinness is facing the competition of two other giants, which are also among the biggest global operators in the sector: Nigerian Breweries Plc., owned by Heineken, and SABMiller, the second biggest beer producer in the world. Both groups have introduced a large number of brands to the Nigerian market. Nigerian Breweries Plc. owns Star, Gulder, Heineken, Maltina, Amstel Malta, Fayroux, Climax, Goldberg, Malta Gold and Life while SABMiller operates 2M, Chibuku, Chibuku Super, Club Premium Lager, Club Pilsener, Eagle, Hero, Impala, Kilimanjaro, Laurentina, Lion Lager, Maluti, Manica, Mosi, Nile Special, Rwenzori, Safari, Sibebe, St Louis, Trophy, Voltic and White Bull. Nigerian Breweries Plc. is the largest brewing company in the country, and has eight operational breweries, distributed all around Nigeria. It is acting on prices and marketing to maintain its leadership, and has recently introduced a new version of its main brand Star. SABMiller is also

26 Cf. Corporate Nigeria (2013). 27 Cf. CIA (2011).

13 BÜCHLER, BOYER, DOBRINEVSKAIA, FRÖHLICH, MARTUCCI (2017) GUINNESS NIGERIA – IS THE BRAND LOSING ITS POWER? 17-1230 EN spending large amounts of money on marketing campaigns and has planned to invest USD 110 million in expanding capacity production in Nigeria. The three giants are targeting the "brand- conscious" middle class, while cheaper local producers are gaining market share on the less affluent population.

Last year, most of the competitors’ brands did not follow Guinness’ increase in price in order to adjust for inflation, which reduced sales for Guinness. The competition is thus becoming harsher and less foreseeable.

What Now?

Going through all these ideas a couple of days later made Seni Adetu very thoughtful. Guinness has conquered the African market in an incredible pace. Their success was based on trust into the country and its people. However, the growth seemed to have reached a plateau. In 2014, Guinness Nigeria is facing decreasing profits and a declining value of shares and dividends. Seni Adetu was sad because shareholders like James Buhari were unsatisfied and he was well aware of the possible consequences of this. They had established a strong marketing campaign to foster their sales. However, at the moment, the company was struggling with the sales of their products for the unusually high price. He, therefore, was asking himself the question of whether the myth around Guinness would be enough to justify for the high price in the future. They had tried to expand their production through tapping into new markets, like with the non-alcoholic Malta. However, would it be a success? And would they be able to maintain their market share although competing with cheaper Heineken and SABMiller? Looking at the newspaper on his table and reading the headlines on Ebola, his thoughts wandered towards the developments in his region and entire Africa. How was Guinness going to handle external influences on the organization? Would it be subject to many more variations?

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