MALLIK FILM PB 7/9/04 10:12 Page 1 20 SIPRI Research Reports MALLIK is a series of reports on urgent arms control and security subjects. The reports are concise, timely and authoritative sources of information. SIPRI researchers and SIPRI Research Report No. 20 commissioned experts present new findings as well as easily accessible collections of official documents and data. TECHNOLOGY AND SECURITY INTHE 21st CENTURY Technology and Security in the 21st Century: A Demand-Side Perspective TECHNOLOGY AND The impact of technology on warfare and security has been demonstrated many times. The unavoidable diffusion of technology has added to concerns about the possibility of technology reaching irresponsible hands. Technology control regimes SECURITY IN THE have formed a vital component of national security strategies for controlling prolif- eration and denying technological advantages to adversaries. Future challenges to arms control and non-proliferation will demand wider cooperation among increas- ingly interdependent nations. The author makes a case for a broader cooperative 21st CENTURY management approach to technology controls. Harmonious international cooperation among the majority of nations will be vital to achieving objectives linked to non- proliferation, disarmament and global socio-economic progress. This, in turn, could A DEMAND-SIDE PERSPECTIVE reduce the common dangers linked to weapons of mass destruction and terrorism, thereby enhancing international stability. About the author AMITAV MALLIK Professor Amitav Mallik has been a research scientist since 1966. His work at the Solid State Physics Laboratory, Delhi, was instrumental in India’s development of gas lasers. In 1975–85 he was Professor of Electronics at the Institute of Armament Technology, Pune. In 1985 he worked at the Defence Science Centre, Delhi; in 1988–94 he was Adviser, Defence Technology, at the Indian Embassy in Washington, DC; and he later worked for the Indian Ministry of Defence. He became Director of the Defence Science Centre in 1996 and established the Laser Science & Technology Centre. He has written many technical and analysis papers and reports and in 2002 received the Padma Shri award. He has been a member of India’s National Security Advisory Board since 2003. 1 ISBN 0-19-927176-3 2 9 780199 271764 MALLIK FILM PB 7/9/04 10:12 Page 1 20 SIPRI Research Reports MALLIK is a series of reports on urgent arms control and security subjects. The reports are concise, timely and authoritative sources of information. SIPRI researchers and SIPRI Research Report No. 20 commissioned experts present new findings as well as easily accessible collections of official documents and data. TECHNOLOGY ANDSECURITYIN THE21st CENTURY Technology and Security in the 21st Century: A Demand-Side Perspective TECHNOLOGY AND The impact of technology on warfare and security has been demonstrated many times. The unavoidable diffusion of technology has added to concerns about the possibility of technology reaching irresponsible hands. Technology control regimes SECURITY IN THE have formed a vital component of national security strategies for controlling prolif- eration and denying technological advantages to adversaries. Future challenges to arms control and non-proliferation will demand wider cooperation among increas- ingly interdependent nations. The author makes a case for a broader cooperative 21st CENTURY management approach to technology controls. Harmonious international cooperation among the majority of nations will be vital to achieving objectives linked to non- proliferation, disarmament and global socio-economic progress. This, in turn, could A DEMAND-SIDE PERSPECTIVE reduce the common dangers linked to weapons of mass destruction and terrorism, thereby enhancing international stability. About the author AMITAV MALLIK Professor Amitav Mallik has been a research scientist since 1966. His work at the Solid State Physics Laboratory, Delhi, was instrumental in India’s development of gas lasers. In 1975–85 he was Professor of Electronics at the Institute of Armament Technology, Pune. In 1985 he worked at the Defence Science Centre, Delhi; in 1988–94 he was Adviser, Defence Technology, at the Indian Embassy in Washington, DC; and he later worked for the Indian Ministry of Defence. He became Director of the Defence Science Centre in 1996 and established the Laser Science & Technology Centre. He has written many technical and analysis papers and reports and in 2002 received the Padma Shri award. He has been a member of India’s National Security Advisory Board since 2003. 1 ISBN 0-19-927176-3 2 9 780199 271764 Technology and Security in the 21st Century A Demand-side Perspective Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SIPRI is an independent international institute for research into problems of peace and conflict, especially those of arms control and disarmament. It was established in 1966 to commemorate Sweden’s 150 years of unbroken peace. The Institute is financed mainly by a grant proposed by the Swedish Government and subsequently approved by the Swedish Parliament. The staff and the Governing Board are international. The Institute also has an Advisory Committee as an international consultative body. The Governing Board is not responsible for the views expressed in the publications of the Institute. Governing Board Ambassador Rolf Ekéus, Chairman (Sweden) Sir Marrack Goulding, Vice-Chairman (United Kingdom) Dr Alexei G. Arbatov (Russia) Dr Willem F. van Eekelen (Netherlands) Dr Nabil Elaraby (Egypt) Rose E. Gottemoeller (United States) Professor Helga Haftendorn (Germany) Professor Ronald G. Sutherland (Canada) The Director Director Alyson J. K. Bailes (United Kingdom) Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Signalistgatan 9, SE-169 70 Solna, Sweden Cable: SIPRI Telephone: 46 8/655 97 00 Telefax: 46 8/655 97 33 Email: [email protected] Internet URL: http://www.sipri.org Technology and Security in the 21st Century A Demand-side Perspective SIPRI Research Report No. 20 Amitav Mallik OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS 2004 OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide in Oxford New York Auckland Bangkok Buenos Aires Cape Town Chennai Dar es Salaam Delhi Hong Kong Istanbul Karachi Kolkata Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Mumbai Nairobi São Paulo Shanghai Taipei Tokyo Toronto Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries Published in the United States by Oxford University Press Inc., New York © SIPRI 2004 First published 2004 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of SIPRI or as expressly permitted by law, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics rights organizations. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to SIPRI, Signalistgatan 9, SE-169 70 Solna, Sweden You must not circulate this book in any other binding or cover and you must impose the same condition on any acquirer British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Data available Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Data available ISBN 0-19-927175-5 ISBN 0-19-927176-3 (pbk) Typeset and originated by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Printed in Great Britain on acid-free paper by Biddles Ltd., King’s Lynn, Norfolk Contents Preface vii Foreword ix Acronyms xi 1. Introduction: technology and security in the 21st century I. Background 1 II. Technology diffusion 4 III. Proliferation and disarmament 7 IV. Technology controls 14 V. New technologies and new concerns 16 VI. Organization of this report 19 2. Changing threat perceptions and proliferation concerns 22 I. The changing world order 22 II. The regional impact of conventional arms transfers 31 III. Future conflicts and threat perceptions 35 IV. Causes of WMD proliferation 42 V. Prioritizing proliferation concerns 51 VI. Future challenges 55 Table 2.1. Five recipients of US aid related to the war 32 on terrorism Figure 2.1. National security parameters 24 3. A different perspective on arms control and export control 59 regimes I. Arms control and disarmament 59 II. The Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Comprehensive 70 Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty III. The changing environment for export controls 76 IV. Missile proliferation, the Missile Technology Control 82 Regime and ballistic missile defence V. The efficacy of multilateral export control regimes 92 Table 3.1. Membership of multilateral weapon and technology 60 transfer control regimes, as of 1 January 2004 vi TEC HNOLOGY AND S EC UR ITY 4. Technology diffusion in the 21st century 102 I. Technological interplay 102 II. The impact of new technologies 104 III. Future trends in technology and strategy 113 IV. New patterns of technology diffusion 117 5. Conclusions 122 I. In summary 122 II. The future of technology controls 128 III. A new approach to technology management 131 IV. Conclusions and recommendations 135 Index 143 Preface During the widespread reappraisal of dangers from the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) that has followed the strategic shock of the events of 11 September 2001, the problem of technology transfer has regained a saliency it last enjoyed at the time of the cold war. In that era, Western