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Q4 2016 Iran Q4 2016 www.bmiresearch.com IRAN AUTOS REPORT INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2020 Published by:BMI Research Iran Autos Report Q4 2016 INCLUDES 5-YEAR FORECASTS TO 2020 Part of BMI’s Industry Report & Forecasts Series Published by: BMI Research Copy deadline: September 2016 ISSN: 1748-9962 BMI Research © 2016 Business Monitor International Ltd 2 Broadgate Circle All rights reserved. London EC2M 2QS All information contained in this publication is United Kingdom copyrighted in the name of Business Monitor Tel: +44 (0) 20 7248 0468 International Ltd, and as such no part of this Fax: +44 (0) 20 7248 0467 publication may be reproduced, repackaged, Email: [email protected] redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used Web: http://www.bmiresearch.com in any form or by any means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher. DISCLAIMER All information contained in this publication has been researched and compiled from sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. However, in view of the natural scope for human and/or mechanical error, either at source or during production, Business Monitor International Ltd accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the publication. All information is provided without warranty, and Business Monitor International Ltd makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information hereto contained. Iran Autos Report Q4 2016 CONTENTS BMI Industry View ............................................................................................................... 7 Key Views ............................................................................................................................................... 7 SWOT .................................................................................................................................... 8 Industry Forecast ................................................................................................................ 9 Industry Forecast Scenario .......................................................................................................................... 9 Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Iran 2014-2020) ......................................................................... 9 Latest Developments ................................................................................................................................. 9 Structural Trends ..................................................................................................................................... 9 Sales .................................................................................................................................................... 10 Production ............................................................................................................................................ 13 Passenger Vehicles .................................................................................................................................. 17 Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Iran 2014-2020) .................................................................... 17 Latest Developments And Segment Drivers ................................................................................................. 17 Key Players .......................................................................................................................................... 17 Table: Iran Car Sales By Brand Top 10 (Latest Available Data) ...................................................................................... 17 Commercial Vehicles ................................................................................................................................ 18 Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Iran 2014-2020) .............................................................. 18 Latest Developments And Segment Drivers ................................................................................................. 18 Industry Risk/Reward Index ............................................................................................. 20 Region Losing Global Standing ................................................................................................................. 20 Saudi Arabia On The Brink ...................................................................................................................... 21 Morocco Becomes A Regional Bright Spot .................................................................................................. 21 Company Profile ................................................................................................................ 22 Iran Khodro Company (IKCO) ................................................................................................................... 22 Societe Annonyme Iranienne de Production Automobile (Saipa) ....................................................................... 24 Regional Overview ............................................................................................................ 25 MENA ................................................................................................................................................... 25 Table: MENA Autos Production Investment ............................................................................................................ 25 Morocco Makes Its Mark ......................................................................................................................... 26 Oman Becoming A GCC Hub ................................................................................................................... 26 PSA Commitment A Win For Iran .............................................................................................................. 26 Demographic Forecast ..................................................................................................... 27 Table: Population Headline Indicators (Iran 1990-2025) .............................................................................................. 28 Table: Key Population Ratios (Iran 1990-2025) ....................................................................................................... 28 Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Iran 1990-2025) ................................................................................. 29 Table: Population By Age Group (Iran 1990-2025) .................................................................................................... 29 Table: Population By Age Group % (Iran 1990-2025) ................................................................................................. 30 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4 Iran Autos Report Q4 2016 Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 32 Industry Forecasts .................................................................................................................................. 32 Sector-Specific Methodology .................................................................................................................... 33 Sources ................................................................................................................................................ 33 Risk/Reward Index Methodology ............................................................................................................... 34 Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators ...................................................................... 35 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 5 Iran Autos Report Q4 2016 BMI Industry View BMI View: Total vehicle sales will grow significantly in 2016 off the back of easing sanctions and returning western brands. A preference for western brands will boost passenger vehicle sales as consumers that delayed purchases under sanctions, as they waited for these brands to return to market, move to purchase vehicles. Additionally, the booming construction industry will support commercial vehicle sales in 2016. Total Vehicle Sales And Production Boosted By Easing Sanctions Total Vehicle Sales & Production 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2014e 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f Vehicle production, units Vehicle sales, units f = BMI forecast. Source: National Sources,BMI Key Views ■ Preferences for Western brands re-entering the market will drive vehicle sales. ■ Ban on American vehicle manufacturers will prevent them from entering the market. ■ Improved financing for infrastructure projects will support the commercial vehicle segment. ■ Investment into vehicle production will facilitate investment into the component supply chain industry. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 7 Iran Autos Report Q4 2016 SWOT Iran Auto Industry SWOT Strengths ■ The largest car-producing nation in the Middle East. ■ Growing middle class should provide high demand for new cars over the medium term. ■ New car sales and production both look set for strong growth over the forecast period. Weaknesses ■ Iran is insisting on tough new preconditions
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