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Analysis and Recommendations on the Exhaustion of Ipv4 Address Space

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Analysis and Recommendations on the Exhaustion of Ipv4 Address Space Analysis and Recommendations on the Exhaustion of IPv4 Address Space This document is the translation of the original report in Japanese available at: http://www.nic.ad.jp/ja/research/ipv4exhaustion/ipv4exh-report.pdf Japan Network Information Center （JPNIC) Expert Research Team on Number Resources Utilization March 24, 2006 English version by JPNIC IP Department July 31, 2006 Table of contents 1. Introduction............................................................................................................... 1 2. Global consumption trends of IPv4 address space and future projections ............ 3 2.1. Reports on IPv4 address consumption............................................................... 3 2.2. Summary of each report on the exhaustion of IPv4 address space.................. 4 2.3. Research on projections for exhaustion of IPv4 address space ........................ 5 2.3.1. IP Address Space Report by Geoff Huston..................................................... 5 2.3.2. A Pragmatic Report on IPv4 Address Space Consumption by Tony Hain ... 6 2.3.3. A Virtual Round Table discussion between IP address experts ................... 6 2.3.4. ISP column by Geoff Huston........................................................................... 7 2.4. Statistical evaluation regarding demand projection......................................... 7 3. IPv4 address consumption and demand projection in Japan ................................. 9 3.1. IPv4 address consumption in Japan.................................................................. 9 3.1.1. Japanese IPv4 address consumption from a global perspective ................... 9 3.1.2. IPv4 address consumption in Japan............................................................... 9 3.1.3. Validation of IPv4 address consumption...................................................... 11 3.1.4. Relationship between consumption forms of IPv4 address space and address demand trends............................................................................................... 11 3.1.5. Projection of demand in Japan ..................................................................... 12 3.2. Actual IPv4 address utilization state based on routing information............. 13 3.2.1. Definition of IPv4 address utilization state ................................................. 13 3.2.2. Utilization state in Japan ............................................................................. 13 3.2.3. Utilization state in the APNIC region.......................................................... 18 3.3. Conclusion......................................................................................................... 21 4. Phenomena Anticipated in the Exhaustion Period ............................................... 22 4.1. Definition of period ........................................................................................... 23 4.1.1. Exhaustion point ........................................................................................... 24 4.1.2. Pre-Exhaustion Period .................................................................................. 25 4.1.3. Post-Exhaustion Period................................................................................. 25 4.2. Trends in policy changes regarding IPv4 address space ................................ 25 4.3. Anticipated phenomena before exhaustion ..................................................... 27 4.3.1. Demand surge................................................................................................ 27 4.3.2. Avoidance of consumption of IPv4 address space ........................................ 28 － i － 4.3.3. Efforts to delay the exhaustion point ........................................................... 28 4.3.4. Reaching the exhaustion point without disruption ..................................... 29 4.4. Anticipated phenomenon at the exhaustion point.......................................... 30 4.5. Anticipated phenomena after exhaustion ....................................................... 31 4.5.1. Trading of IPv4 address space ...................................................................... 31 4.5.2. Migration to IPv6 Internet............................................................................ 31 4.5.3. Maintenance of IPv4 Internet....................................................................... 32 4.6. Impact of co-existence of IPv6 Internet and IPv4 Internet ............................ 32 4.6.1. Basic operation of the Internet ..................................................................... 33 4.6.2. Differences between IPv4 and IPv6 for the Internet user........................... 34 4.6.3. Problems and solutions after IPv4 address space is exhausted.................. 36 4.6.4. Organizing the problems in a coexisting environment................................ 39 5. Recommendations ................................................................................................... 40 5.1. Classification of stake holders ......................................................................... 40 5.2. Recommendations to registries (ICANN/IANA/RIR/NIR).............................. 42 5.3. Recommendations to Internet service providers (ISP) ................................... 43 5.4. Recommendations to Internet users................................................................ 45 5.4.1. Service providers ........................................................................................... 45 5.4.2. Corporate users.............................................................................................. 46 5.4.3. General users................................................................................................. 46 5.5. Recommendations to IP technology developers (vendors, etc.) ...................... 47 6. Authors .................................................................................................................... 49 7. Acknowledgements.................................................................................................. 50 － ii － 1. Introduction The development of the Internet is inextricably linked with the expansion in the consumption of IPv4 address space. The Internet has rapidly developed throughout the world for almost a decade, and 32-bit IPv4 address space limitations have become severe. The shortage of IPv4 address space had been projected as early as 1990. Since around last year when the actual allocatable IPv4 address space became less than one fourth of the total space, the exhaustion of IPv4 address space has become a real possibility. Moreover, some experts have brought forward their projections for the date of IPv4 address space exhaustion; if the pace of allocation over the last 3 to 5 years continues, it is predicted that IPv4 address space will be exhausted at a relatively early stage. This report summarizes the current state, events that may arise, and preparations required for the eventual exhaustion, with reference to projections for the date of IPv4 address exhaustion. The objective is to enable the smooth operations and usage of the Internet even at the time of IPv4 address space exhaustion. Chapter 2 analyzes in detail projections for when IPv4 address space will be exhausted, the basis of this report. The eventual exhaustion of IPv4 address space has been predicted by several experts. In this report, we study each projection as well as its basis, and the predicted exhaustion point. The projections are also analyzed statistically and objectively. Chapter 3 looks at the utilization state of IPv4 address space in Japan, the Asia-Pacific region, as well as throughout all regions globally. In the history of IPv4 address space, which had been used in various forms since 1980, there was a time when the address space was not managed in an orderly manner as in today, and large volumes of address space had been given out as a result. With this and other factors in mind, we shall look at the utilization state of IPv4 address space from a technical perspective. In Chapter 4, we compile and classify the phenomena related to the exhaustion of IPv4 address space into several phases based on issues raised so far. The events that may occur for each phase are examined, such as a surge in demand just before the exhaustion and appearance of the black-market of IPv4 address space after the exhaustion. Furthermore, the co-existing network during migration from IPv4 Internet to IPv6 Internet is discussed and its influence is examined. In Chapter 5, some recommendations are offered based on the discussions for ensuring usage of the current IPv4 Internet and new IPv6 Internet without difficulty as IPv4 address space is exhausted and during the final phase of allocations of IPv4 address space. Recommendations are offered for six types of organizations and the Internet users: Internet Registries, Internet service providers, IP engineers including vendors, service providers using the Internet, corporate users, and end users. － 1 － We consider it the highest priority that Internet service providers prepare for IPv6 network services to enable IPv6 Internet connectivity for their customers. We propose IP engineers, such as developers and vendors to improve their IPv6 products to ensure the safe and convenient usage of the Internet. This report does not focus on exactly when IPv4 address space will be exhausted as the speed of depletion may change according to future demand for address space. Rather,
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