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“Investor Behavior Under the Covid-19 Pandemic: the Case of Indonesia”

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“Investor Behavior Under the Covid-19 Pandemic: the Case of Indonesia” “Investor behavior under the Covid-19 pandemic: the case of Indonesia” Novi Swandari Budiarso https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5832-0117 https://publons.com/researcher/2068888/novi-s-budiarso/ Abdul Wahab Hasyim AUTHORS Rusman Soleman Irfan Zam Zam Winston Pontoh https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3123-7919 https://publons.com/researcher/2068901/winston-pontoh/ Novi Swandari Budiarso, Abdul Wahab Hasyim, Rusman Soleman, Irfan Zam ARTICLE INFO Zam and Winston Pontoh (2020). Investor behavior under the Covid-19 pandemic: the case of Indonesia. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 17(3), 308-318. doi:10.21511/imfi.17(3).2020.23 DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.17(3).2020.23 RELEASED ON Thursday, 01 October 2020 RECEIVED ON Saturday, 06 June 2020 ACCEPTED ON Monday, 21 September 2020 LICENSE This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License JOURNAL "Investment Management and Financial Innovations" ISSN PRINT 1810-4967 ISSN ONLINE 1812-9358 PUBLISHER LLC “Consulting Publishing Company “Business Perspectives” FOUNDER LLC “Consulting Publishing Company “Business Perspectives” NUMBER OF REFERENCES NUMBER OF FIGURES NUMBER OF TABLES 32 0 5 © The author(s) 2020. This publication is an open access article. businessperspectives.org Investment Management and Financial Innovations, Volume 17, Issue 3, 2020 Novi Swandari Budiarso (Indonesia), Abdul Wahab Hasyim (Indonesia), Rusman Soleman (Indonesia), Irfan Zam Zam (Indonesia), Winston Pontoh (Indonesia) Investor behavior under BUSINESS PERSPECTIVES the Covid-19 pandemic: LLC “СPС “Business Perspectives” Hryhorii Skovoroda lane, 10, the case of Indonesia Sumy, 40022, Ukraine www.businessperspectives.org Abstract This study begins with the assumption that the existence of abnormal circumstances will force investors to take measures to protect their investments in the capital market. Recently, the stock index in the Indonesian market has been declining and continued to fall until the end of April 2020 due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. In terms of efficient market theory, prospect theory and signaling theory, this study aims to analyze the relationship between risk and return in the Indonesian capital market dur- ing the Covid-19 pandemic as a manifestation of investor behavior. To test hypotheses, the correlation test, the independent sample t-test and the Cohen test for 629 public firms with 52,836 observable data are used. The findings show that for financial sectors and non-financial sectors, the fourth period differs from previous periods when the relationship between systematic risk and stock returns is positive, although only non- financial sectors have a significant effect. The results show that efficient market theory, prospect theory and signaling theory are consistent with the phenomena around the Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia. In addition, Cohen’s test results suggest that govern- ment policies in the face of the pandemic are successful in stimulating the market. Keywords stock returns, risks, efficient market, prospect, signaling Received on: 6th of June, 2020 Accepted on: 21st of September, 2020 JEL Classification G11, G18, G41 Published on: 1st of October, 2020 © Novi Swandari Budiarso, Abdul INTRODUCTION Wahab Hasyim, Rusman Soleman, Irfan Zam Zam, Winston Pontoh, 2020 The ideal paradigm is that investors should consider risks and returns when developing a portfolio in order to make better investment deci- Novi Swandari Budiarso, Lecturer, Economics and Business Faculty, Sam sions (Markowitz, 1952; Wolski, 2017; Stålnacke, 2019; Vo et al., 2019). Ratulangi University, North Sulawesi, In this view, it can be assumed that investors will take protective Indonesia. (Corresponding author) measures or react as the psychological impact in the capital market Abdul Wahab Hasyim, Professor, Economics and Business Faculty, if abnormal circumstances occur, which is called the “trigger events” Khairun University, North Maluku, (Dreman & Lufkin, 2000). Based on this assumption, the investor be- Indonesia. haviors in relation to risk and return trade-off are the efforts to keep Rusman Soleman, Professor, Economics and Business Faculty, Khairun the limit of target returns (Dreman & Lufkin, 2000; Beal et al., 2005). University, North Maluku, Indonesia. Irfan Zam Zam, Associate Professor, Recently, the world, including the Republic of Indonesia, is under at- Economics and Business Faculty, Khairun University, North Maluku, tack from the Covid-19 pandemic. In these conditions, the economy Indonesia. is a field that gets a severe impact, especially in the capital market. In Winston Pontoh,Associate Professor, this case, capital market conditions as reflected by the stock index or Economics and Business Faculty, Sam Ratulangi University, North Sulawesi, Indonesia Composite Indextend to be associated with some important Indonesia. trigger events from the World Health Organization’s timeline and sit- uation report of Covid-19 and the situation reports supported with This is an Open Access article, daily statistics from the National Disaster Management Authority of distributed under the terms of the the Republic of Indonesia. Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license, which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and The first event starts at the end of December 2019 when the first case of reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Covid-19 was reported to the World Health Organization. After this Conflict of interest statement: event, the Indonesian capital market, during January 2020, is general- Author(s) reported no conflict of interest ly in a normal condition with the average stock index at IDR 6,225.77 308 http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.17(3).2020.23 Investment Management and Financial Innovations, Volume 17, Issue 3, 2020 compared to December 2019 with the stock index at IDR 6,217.98. The event continued when, on January 28, 2020, the National Disaster Management Authority announced that the Republic of Indonesia was in an emergency condition, followed by an international warning from the World Health Organization. Since those announcements, at the beginning of February 2020, the stock index in the Indonesian capi- tal market started to decline and fell to IDR 5,855.49 on average at the end of the month. The further event is the second National Disaster Management Authority’s announcement on February 29, 2020 to extend an emergency condition in the Republic of Indonesia. In March 2020, the Indonesian government took many recovery actions not only in the health field but also in economics, especially in monetary and fiscal policies. However, till the end of March2020, the capital market tended to show panic conditions, which resulted in the stock index drop to IDR 4,786.92 on average. On April 2020, the tax incentive regulation, as fiscal policy runs effectively, improved during the month. Moreover, as the monetary policy, the Central Bank of Indonesia decided to keep the rate at 4.5%. In April 2020, the stock index tended to move more steadily, although its average was only IDR 4,600.98. The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the risk-return relationship in the Indonesian capital market between January 2020 and April 2020 as a manifestation of investor behavior in accordance with efficient market theory, prospect theory and signaling theory. 1. LITERATURE REVIEW efficient market model will depend on informa- tion that is given as weak form, semi-strong form, 1.1. Efficient market theory and strong form. Lintner (1965), and Fama (1970, 1991) suggest testing the efficient market theory Markowitz (1952) shows that the relationship be- using an equilibrium model such as an asset pric- tween beliefs and choice in the context of a port- ing model. Markowitz (1952), Fama and MacBeth folio follows the relation of expected returns and (1973), Harvey (1989), Frazzini and Pedersen its variance (or risk), which will lead to the crea- (2014), Mollik and Bepari (2015), Aliu et al. (2017), tion of an efficient portfolio by investors on the -as Wolski (2017), Stålnacke (2019), Budiarso and sumption that the efficient line begins with mini- Pontoh (2019), and Vo et al. (2019) report that risk mum risk. Markowitz (1952) assumes that returns and return are correlated positively. According to vary with risks, which means that it is impossible these reviews, the hypothesis is an efficient market for investors to set the portfolio based on expecta- as the explanation of the phenomenon under the tions of maximum return and minimum variance, Covid-19 pandemic, where stock returns are posi- since diversification cannot eliminate all variance. tively associated with systematic risk. Lintner (1965) assumes that uncertainty is the ba- sic condition for investors in preferences for opti- 1.2. Prospect theory mal investment portfolios. Under this assumption, investors face the risk of assets while setting up The utility function is the constraints of efficient the portfolio with optimum returns, which means market theory, especially in the concept of be- that the higher the expected return, the higher the havioral finance (Lintner, 1965; Fama, 1970). This risk (Lintner, 1965). concept is deeply developed by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) into prospect theory, which em- Fama (1970, 1998) defines that an efficient market phasizes that investors set and decide the portfolio is a market whose stock prices fully reflect avail- under risk. Kahneman and Tversky (1979) prove able information that
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