Appendix A: Sources of Information

The most convenient sources of macroeconomic data for use in travel industry studies include the following regular U.S. Department of Commerce publications: Survey of Current Business, containing personal-consumption expenditure ﬁgures for the preceding 4 years U.S. Labor Department, Monthly Review and Handbook of Labor Statistics, for articles and data on labor and employment issues U.S. Census Selected Services, which contains regional data on revenues, employment, and productivity U.S. Statistical Abstract for historical series U.S. Industrial Outlook, published every year with forecasts for the next 5 years. Information on speciﬁc travel business topics is also widely available in the following regularly published nongovernment-sponsored magazines, newspapers, journals, and Web sites.

Advertising Age Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management Airﬁnance Euro Money Yearbook Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Technology Airﬁnance Journal Journal of Sustainable Tourism Airline Business Journal of Transportation and Statistics Airports Council Intl. web site(www.aci-na.org) Journal of Transport Economics and Policy (continued)

Airport World Journal of Travel Research Annals of Tourism Research Journal of Travel Research ATA Handbook and Web site (www.air-trans Lodging/Hospitality port.org) Aviation Daily Lodging/Hospitality Aviation & Aerospace Almanac www.Lodgingresearch.com Hotels Ofﬁce of Travel & Tourism Industries Hotel & Motel Management PlaneBusiness.com HotelsNewsNow.com Tourism Economics ICAO web site (www.ICAO.org) Tourism Management International Journal of Hospitality Travel Agent Management International Journal of Tourism Research Travel & Tourism Analyst (www.t-ti.com) Journal of Ecotourism World Airline News Journal of Gambling Studies World Tourism Organization Yearbook

See also Global Airline Industry Program, Airline Data Project, http://web.mit.edu/ airlinedata/www/default.html Appendix B: Valuation Concepts

The valuation approaches discussed in Sect. 1.6 may be broadly applied to any asset class. However, travel industry analysts will also encounter financial notions of internal rates of return (IRR) and economic value added (EVA). The objective here is not to replicate the detail that would be provided in standard texts on financial theory and practice, but to provide a brief introduction to the basic concepts. Internal Rate of Return The time value of money is central to all valuation calculations, which must include the number of periods, n, over which cash flows in or out; present value, pv; future value, fv; and an interest rate, r. Using these elements, project investments are decided on the basis of whether the required rate of return—the return in excess of the project’s cost of capital—will be earned and whether such a return is by comparison above those that might be earned by other projects also competing for the same capital at the same time. This required rate of return may also be further specified as the required return to debt capital, k;to equity capital, k; or to a weighted average of both. In ranking of alternative investment projects, whether involving a tangible asset such as a new airplane or less tangible assets such as landing rights, an internal rate of return (IRR) analysis is usually helpful, if not always totally decisive. The IRR is defined as the rate of discount, k, which makes the net present value (NPV) equal to zero. Because an increase of the discount rate (i.e., required rate of return) arith- metically decreases the NPV of a project, it is then possible through trial and error to determine the IRR at which a project’s NPV declines to zero. Assuming that the project is financed through equity only, then the discovered IRR provides an estimated return on equity (ROE). If the ROE is above the cost of equity capital, ke, the project should be accepted. If it is equal to the cost of equity capital, an investor might be indifferent to its prospects. And certainly, the project would be rejected if the IRR were below ke. This approach will normally lead to decisions that are consistent with a strategy of maximizing NPV, but there are circumstances when this will not always be true. For example, it is possible that no IRR can be determined. Moreover, it is possible

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016 269 H.L. Vogel, Travel Industry Economics, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-27475-1 270 Appendix B: Valuation Concepts that mutually exclusive alternative projects are being considered. Rankings based on NPV alone would provide an immediate decision, whereas rankings based on IRRs suffer from problems of scale and from assumptions concerning the reinvest- ment rate. Although IRR may show the highest rate of return, it does not indicate the number of dollars of value that might be created. And it is possible that a project’s cash ﬂow timing is such that the NPV never falls to zero or that the NPV crosses the horizontal axis and drops to zero more than once, thereby producing multiple IRRs. Obviously, a project with an IRR of 40 % creating only $100 of NPV should not be chosen over a project with a 25 % IRR but that creates $500 of NPV. The IRR method also makes the implicit assumption that a project’s cash ﬂows are, over the life of the investment, able to be reinvested at the same rate as the IRR. Usually, such an assumption is unrealistic. Appendix C: Major Games of Chance and Slots

In studying the ﬁnancial economics of gaming, it is essential to have at least a cursory knowledge of how the major games are played. This appendix by no means intended as a complete guide. Many websites and widely available books, including Schwartz (2006) on the history of gambling, contain far greater detail concerning the ﬁner points of play strategy and money management (i.e., the number of units wagered at each betting decision).1 Tax consequences may also have some relevance.2

Blackjack

In blackjack, alternatively known as 21 or vingt-et-un, the player’s goal is to receive cards totaling more than those of the dealer, but not exceeding 21—and to do this before the dealer has to show his or her hand. An ace card can be counted as either 1 or 11, other numbers count as their actual values, and picture cards count as 10. Suits do not matter. The payoff to a winning player is equivalent to the amount bet

1 Economists familiar with the efﬁcient-market hypothesis will recognize many of the concepts (e.g., martingales) that are involved in money management. A martingale is any system of trying to make up losses in previous bets by doubling or otherwise increasing the amount bet. The pyramid or D’Alembert system is also popular. Martingales and the importance of the Kelly criterion in portfolio management are discussed in Poundstone (2005, pp. 190–201.) The criterion says “When faced with a choice of wagers or investments, choose the one with the highest geometric mean of outcomes.” This is closely related to the Kelly formula for bet size (i.e., fraction of bankroll to be wagered), which is edge/odds, where edge is the amount expected to be won on a wager placed over and over again with the same probabilities (Poundstone 2005, p. 72). 2 Players should also be aware that the IRS requires bingo and slot-machine winners of more than $1200 and keno winners of more than $1500 to ﬁle form W-2G. In the case of lotteries and racetrack winners, withholding of 20 % for federal taxes may begin at $1000.

(i.e., even money), except in the case of “blackjack” (a “natural” 21 on the first two cards), when the payoff is three units to two. The game operator’s advantage in blackjack is difficult to compute at any point of play. However, from the top of a deck, blackjack ordinarily provides the house with an edge of a little more than 2 %.3 As the game progresses the house edge (which depends importantly on the fact that the dealer turns over his cards after the player has gone bust) may disappear, and a skilled card counter can take advantage of such moments by increasing the size of the bet at that time. Blackjack is thus the only casino game that can be beaten by players and it is this well-advertised fact that has made blackjack the most popular of casino table games. To win consistently, skills in card counting, in play strategy, and in money management must be employed simultaneously in the typical high-speed, pressur- ized casino environment.4 Because attainment of such skills requires innate ability in mathematics and extensive study and practice (the patience for which is not apt to be found in most players), however, the threat to casino profits from self- proclaimed card counters is usually more imagined than real. The presence of card counters has nonetheless tended to unnerve managements and rather than simply foiling recognized counters by setting low betting limits, casinos have devised a multitude of card-cutting and multideck variations.

Craps

Craps has long been a favorite in American casinos and, along with poker, is a quintessential American game. It evolved from the English game called hazard, and was adopted and reﬁned in New Orleans in the early 1800s. Thereafter it spread to immigrant neighborhoods on the East Coast. In contrast to 21, in which probability calculations are especially complicated, the house edge in bank craps as regularly conducted in casinos can be readily computed. Two cubes (dice)—each die’s surface marked one through six with embedded dots—are thrown by the player (“shooter”) against a backboard on the opposite side of the table. Betting decisions are dependent on the sum of dots on the top surfaces of the dice after they come to rest. There are 36 possible outcomes (6 Â 6), and the probabilities of a number being thrown are measured against those outcomes. With two cubes, there are more ways (six) to make a 7 (i.e., 1:6, 2:5, 3:4, 4:3, 5:2, 6:1) than to make any other number, and craps uses this as a central theme for decision making. So-called front-line bets in craps generate a house edge of 1.41 %, calculated by the following method:

3 Estimates are approximate and assume application of basic strategy. 4 Mezrich (2002) describes how sophisticated card counting works in practice. Appendix C: Major Games of Chance and Slots 273

Assume a perfect dice shooter on each new comeout roll throws each of the 11 numbers exactly as often as predicted for the long run by probability theory. To avoid complicated arithmetic with fractions and to derive a lowest common multiple, multiply 36 possible outcomes by 55, which is 1980. Then, out of 1980 throws, a 7 will appear 6/36 of the time (i.e., 330 times). Similarly, a 4 will be made 3/36 of the time (or 165 times), and so forth. After adding all winning ﬁgures there will be 976 winning rolls and 1004 losing rolls; the house edge is thus the difference of 28 rolls out of 1980, or 1.41 %.

Roulette

Historians disagree on the origin of roulette. Some say it was invented by the French mathematician Blaise Pascal in 1655; others support more arcane theories. In any event, the game has evolved into European and American versions; the European wheel has a single zero, whereas the American one has zero and double zero. Mixed in standardized format around the roulette wheel are the numbers 1 through 36 and, in addition, depending on the version, either zero or both zero and double zero. The numbers on the wheel have adjacent background colors that alternate red and black and are arranged so that alternate low and high, odd and even, and red and black numbers are as mathematically balanced as possible. A perfect balance cannot be achieved because the sum of the numbers 1 through 36 is 666; the odd numbers sum to 324, and the even numbers sum to 342. By placing one or more chips on a number, color, or odd or even, the player is betting that a ball spinning near the rim of the wheel will stop on that number, color, or number type. Payoffs on winning odd-even or black-red bets are 1:1, but for a speciﬁc number the payoff is 35:1. With an American double-zero wheel, a total of 38 positions are possible, and so the correct odds are 37:1. Thus, the casino keeps 2/38 (5.26 %) in the American game or 1/37 (2.70 %) in the European game. Other betting variations that are often offered by casinos normally do not signiﬁcantly affect the casino’s percentages. The en prison option reduces the house advantage by half on even-money bets (i.e., color, high-low number, or odd-even). On such bets, when zero or double zero is the outcome of the last spin of the wheel, players may settle for half the original wager or let the original amount ride (imprison the wager). If the choice is to let it ride and the following spin is a winner, the original bet is returned intact. 274 Appendix C: Major Games of Chance and Slots

Baccarat

Baccarat and its close cousins, Punto Banco, Chemin de Fer, and Baccarat-en- Banque, are popular high-stakes games in casinos all over the world. All current versions are derived from the Italian baccara, ﬁrst introduced into France circa 1490 and later adopted as a favorite game of the nobility. But it was not until the late 1950s that modern baccarat was taken seriously by Las Vegas casinos. The earlier Chemin de Fer is played the same way as baccarat, except that in Chemin, the casino takes no risk because players bet against each other—the house merely acts as a “cutter” for a standard 5 % charge taken from the player-banker’s winning bet (coup). In American baccarat, eight standard 52-card decks are shufﬂed and placed in a “shoe.” There may be as many as 12 people seated at the table, and each makes a bet by placing chips for the Player, for the Banker, or for a tie hand. Winning bets (subject to commissions, as discussed later) are paid even money, and ties usually are paid at 8 to 1. A bettor and the dealer are each dealt two cards, with picture cards and 10 counting as zero and number cards counting as their actual face values. Should the two-card sum be in double digits (i.e., 10 or more), then the right-hand digit is considered the card count. A two-card sum of 14 would thus be counted as 4. Normally, the gamer’s goal is for the side he or she is betting on—either Player or Banker—to have a two-card count of 9. However, if either side has less than 8 or 9 (a natural), there are standardized rules that specify when additional cards may be drawn. A count of zero is baccarat. Through complicated arithmetic it has been determined, according to Scarne (1978, p. 266), that the chance of the Player’s side winning is about 49.33 %, and for the Banker’s side, 50.67 %. The Player’s disadvantage, or cost to participate, is thus about 1.34 %. However, to even out the sides (and save time on making change), the casino retains a 5 % “commission” out of the Banker’s winnings (it actually recaptures 5 % of excess payoff). (Because the Banker’s side, on average, wins 50.67 % of the hands dealt, the actual charge is 2.53 % [0.5067 times 5 %].) In so reducing the aforementioned Banker’s advantage of 1.34 % by 2.53 %, the Banker’s cost of play after commission then nets to about 1.19 % (1.34 À 2.53). Thus, the casino’s edge is somewhere between 1.19 and 1.34 %.5 But on bets that Banker and Player have tie hands, casinos usually pay 8 to 1 and have an edge of 14.36 %. Although bets on ties may typically account for only 3 % of the total money wagered, they represent perhaps 10 % of the total won by the house. Because most of the play, at a rate of about 70 hands an hour, is concentrated on Player or Banker—where the margins are thin—the casino win results for baccarat are generally far more volatile than for any of the other games.

5 Silberstang (1980, p. 388) has slightly different ﬁgures of À1.36 % for Player and À1.17 % for Banker. Also see Thorp (1984) and Manteris and Talley (1991) on casino sports book operations. Appendix C: Major Games of Chance and Slots 275

Slots

Slot machines have steadily evolved since they were first introduced in San Francisco in 1887 and in most casinos they now draw more than 40 % of revenues and an even larger share of profits. Although the performance of slots has been greatly enhanced by the development of sophisticated computing capability, the basic concept of slot play remains the same as always: to line up certain randomly generated symbols on a window or video screen. In return for so doing, players are rewarded with various levels of monetary prizes determined proportionally by the probability of occurrence. For example, in a mechanical three-reel model with 20 different symbols per reel, and with each reel spinning independently, the probability of three of the same figure lining up is 1/20 Â 1/20 Â 1/20, or 0.000125, which is 1 in 8000. Of course, as in other games, the casino will profit by setting the actual payout to be less than 7999 to 1. However, in modern machines, “virtual” reels, wherein each reel may represent 256 different numbers, can be created with a much wider range of payouts and probabilities. In New Jersey, by law, slot machines cannot pay out less than 83 % of the drop, but there is no such rule in Nevada. Slot machines today come in many different versions, including “progressives” (which are linked to the coin-drop in other machines), color-action (nonreel) videos, and multiline-payoff models. But whatever the type, the chief advantages to casinos are the low operating costs and relatively high hold percentages of slots as compared with table games: A modern machine bought at a cost of $10,000 can readily generate $200 or more per day and up to $100,000 a year. Indeed, because of the low operating costs, casinos have also emphasized coin-operated machine adaptations of blackjack and poker.6 Greenlees (2008, pp. 122–200) provides details on modern slot-machine operations and accounting. Schull (2012) and Stross (2013) write of how machine payoffs are designed to foster psychological rewards.

6 For revenue participation games in which the units are placed on the casino ﬂoor at no cost to the operator, arrangements are for the operator to pay the equipment manufacturer a ﬁxed daily fee, a share of revenues, or a combination of both. In revenue-sharing, the win per unit per day is usually split between the operator and the machine manufacturer on an 80/20 basis, whereas the daily fee is approximately $75 per day. Details of revenue-sharing arrangements, in effect, leasing of machines, are provided in Rivlin (2003). Glossary7

Aggregate The familiar type of summary series shown in most statistical reports. Generally, it is a total, such as the gross national product or retail sales, but sometimes it is an average, such as the index of industrial production or the index of wholesale prices. Air/Sea Mix Indicates the proportion of passengers who book air travel through the cruise line as part of a package instead of separately. A change in the mix affects margins, but not operating income as airfares collected by cruise lines are booked as an expense to the airlines. A higher air/sea mix leads to lower operating margins. Amortization of Debt A gradual reduction of a debt through periodic payments covering the interest and part of the principal. Generally, amortization is used when the credit period is longer than a year. Common examples of amortization of debt are mortgage payments on homes, which extend over a period of 20 years or more. Asset A physical property or intangible right, owned by a business or an individual, that has a value. An asset is useful to its owner either because it is a source of future services or because it can be used to secure future benefits. Business assets are usually divided into two categories: current and fixed. Asset Values The implied price buyers might be willing to pay to obtain control of an assets profit- and/or cash-generating potential. Asset values fluctuate according to changes in general economic conditions, interest rates, and expected returns. Block Time In the airline industry, the time on a segment from when the aircrafts engines are switched on at departure to the time they are switched off on arrival. This, of course, includes tarmac taxi time.

7 This abbreviated glossary has been mainly compiled, with permission, from The McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Economics, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1974. The Dictionary of Economic and Statistical Terms, U.S. Department of Commerce, was supplementary.

Bond A written promise to pay a specified sum of money (principal) at a certain date in the future or periodically over the course of a loan, during which time interest is paid at a fixed rate on specified dates. Bonds are issued by corporations, states, localities (municipal bonds), foreign governments, and the U.S. government, usually for long terms (more than 10 years), although any security issued by the U.S. government for more than 5 years is defined as a bond. Book Value The value of a corporation according to its accounting records. It is computed by subtracting all debts from assets; the remainder represents total book value. Total book value is also referred to as net assets. If a corporation has assets of $300,000 and debts of $100,000, its total book value is $200,000. In reports of corporations, the book value is usually represented on a per share basis. This is done by dividing the total book value by the number of shares. In the example given above, if the corporation had 10,000 shares outstanding, its book value would be $20 per share. The book value differs from the par value of the shares and also from the market value. Breakeven Point The specific volume of sales at which a firm neither makes nor loses money. Above this point, a firm begins to show a profit; below it, it suffers a loss. Breakeven-point analysis is used to compute the approximate profit or loss that will be experienced at various levels of production. In carrying out this analysis, each expense item is classified as either fixed (constant at any reason- able level of output) or variable (increasing as output increases and decreasing as output declines). Business Cycle Alternate expansion and contraction in overall business activity evidenced by fluctuations in measures of aggregate economic activity such as the gross national product, the index of industrial production, and employment and income. A business cycle may be divided into four phases: expansion, during which business activity is successively reaching new high points; leveling out, during which business activity reaches a high point and remains at that level for a short period of time; contraction, during which business volume recedes from the peak level for a sustained period until the bottom is reached; and recovery, during which business activity resumes after the low point has been reached and continues to rise to the previous high mark. Capitalized Value The terms applied to a technique used to determine the present value of an asset that promises to produce income in the future. To calculate the present value, the total future income expected must be discounted, that is, offset against the cost (as measured by the current interest rate) of carrying the asset until the income has actually been realized. If the asset promises a stream of income, its capitalized value is calculated by adding together the present discounted value of the income in each year. The general formula for this calculation is I/(1 þ r)t where I is the annual income, r is the current rate of interest, and t is the number of years involved. In this manner, an investor confronted with a choice of properties can determine which alternative is the Glossary 279

most remunerative, though the formula tells nothing about the relative risks involved. Cash Flow The sum of profits and depreciation allowances. (Instead of profits, many economists use retained earnings, which are profits after taxes and after deductions for dividend payments.) Gross cash flow is composed of total profits plus depreciation; net cash flow is composed of retained earnings plus depreciation. Thus, cash flow represents the total funds that corporations generate internally for investment in modernization and expansion of plants and equipment and for working capital. The growth of depreciation allowances over the years has made them a much more important part of cash flow than retained earnings. To facilitate comparisons of property values, however, travel businesses often take cash flow to be profits prior to deductions of interest, depreciation and amortization, and taxes. Code-Sharing A common airline industry marketing practice in which, by mutual agreement between cooperating carriers, at least one of the airline designator codes used on a flight is different from that of the airline operating the flight. Common Stock The capital stock of a corporation that gives the holder an unlimited interest in the corporations earnings and assets after prior claims have been met. Common stock represents the holders equity or ownership in the corporation. Holders of common stock have certain fundamental legal rights, including the following: preemptive rights; the right, in most cases, to vote for the board of directors, who actually manage the company; the right to transfer any or all shares of stock owned; and the right to receive dividends when they are declared by the board of directors. Competition The condition prevailing in a market in which rival sellers try to increase their profits at one anothers expense. In economic theory, the varieties of competition range from perfect competition, in which numerous firms produce or sell identical goods or services to oligopoly in which a few large sellers with substantial influence in the market vie with one another for the available business. Early economists envisioned perfect competition as the most effective assurance that consumers would be provided with goods and services at the lowest possible prices. Complementary Goods Goods that must be accompanied by another good to be useful (e.g., perfect complements would be a left shoe and a right shoe). Contrariwise, close substitutes would be margarine and butter. Convertible Debenture A certificate issued by a corporation as evidence of debt that can be converted at the option of the holder into other securities (usually common stock, but sometimes preferred stock) of the same corporation. Each debenture can be converted into a specified number of shares of stock at a stipulated price for a certain period. There are two advantages to convertible debentures for the issuing corporation: (a) The conversion privilege makes the debentures more attractive to investors and tends to reduce interest costs. (b) The debentures facilitate the extinction of debt because debt declines and equity (stock) increases as holders convert their debentures. The major disadvantage is 280 Glossary

discrimination against the companys stockholders, whose equity is diluted as the holders of debentures convert them. At all times during the conversion period, there is a price relationship between the debenture and the stock. It is based on the conversion price, the number of shares into which each debenture can be converted, and the value that the market puts on the conversion privilege. For example, a $1000 debenture that can be converted into 50 shares of common stock at $20 per share will normally trade in the market at a price higher than $1000 because of the conversion privilege. Correlation The statistical technique that relates a dependent economic variable to one or more independent variables over a period of time to determine the closeness of the relationship between the variables. This technique can be used for business forecasting. When more than one independent variable is used, the relationship is called a multiple correlation. Cost Recovery Accounting method of amortization in which all costs are charged against earned revenue and no profit is recognized until cumulative revenue equals cumulative costs. This method is not acceptable for financial-statement reporting under generally accepted accounting principles. Current Assets Cash or other items that will normally be turned into cash within 1 year and assets that will be used up in the operation of a firm within 1 year. Current assets include cash on hand and in the bank, accounts receivable, materials, supplies, inventories, marketable securities, and prepaid expenses. Current Liabilities Amounts owed that will ordinarily be paid by a firm within 1 year. The most common types of current liabilities are accounts payable, wages payable, taxes payable, and interest and dividends payable. Debenture A bond that is not protected by a specific lien or mortgage on property. Debentures (debts), which are issued by corporations, are promises to pay a specific amount of money (principal) at a specified date or periodically over the course of the loan, during which time interest is paid at a fixed rate on specified dates. Demand The desire, ability, and willingness of an individual to purchase a good or service. Desire by itself is not equivalent to demand: The consumer must also have the funds or the ability to obtain funds to convert the desire into demand. The demand of a buyer for a certain good is a schedule of the quantities of that good that the individual would buy at possible alternative prices at a given moment in time. The demand schedule, or the listing of quantities that would be bought at different prices, can be shown graphically by means of the demand curve. The term demand refers to the entire schedule of possibilities, not only to one point on the schedule. It is an instantaneous concept expressing the relationship of price and the quantity that is desired to be bought, all other factors being constant. Depreciation A reduction in the value of fixed assets. The most important causes of depreciation are wear and tear (loss of value caused by the use of an asset); the effects of the elements (i.e., decay or corrosion); and gradual obsolescence, which makes it unprofitable to continue using some assets until they have been Glossary 281

fully exhausted. The annual amount of depreciation of an asset depends on its original purchase price, its estimated useful life, and its estimated salvage value. A number of different methods of figuring the amount of depreciation have been developed. Using the simple straight-line method, which considers depreciation a function of time, the annual depreciation cost is calculated by dividing the cost of the asset (original minus salvage cost) equally over its entire life. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Method A method of measuring the return on capital invested. The value of a project is expressed as an interest rate at which the projects total future earnings, discounted from the time that they accrue to the present, equal the original investment. It is more precise than most of the other methods used to measure return on capital invested because it recognizes the effect of the time value of money. It can be used to determine whether a given project is acceptable or unacceptable by comparing each projects rate of return with the companys standard. Discount Rate Interest rate charged member banks by the Federal Reserve for the opportunity to borrow added reserves. Also used in DCF methods. Discretionary Spending A measure, developed by the National Industrial Con- ference Board, that reflects the extent of consumer spending as the result of a decision relatively free of prior commitment, pressure of necessity, or force of habit. It includes all personal expenditures not accounted for specifically or in equivalent form in imputed income, fixed commitments, or essential outlays. The series measures the growth and ability of American consumers to exercise some degree of discretion over the direction and manner of their spending and saving. Drop A term used in the gaming industry to indicate the total monetary-equivalent value of cash, IOUs (“markers”), and other items that are physically deposited or dropped into a cash box of a gaming table or slot machine. EBITDA Earnings before deduction of interest, taxes, and depreciation and amortization. Often used as a convenient representation of the cash flow of media and travel-related businesses. In recent years, however, EBITDA has lost analytical favor because it doesnt include the cash flow required to service debts (interest payments) and to purchase or construct new projects, services, or equipment. In times of rapid technological or business change, such purchases will normally require cash outlays that exceed depreciation and amortization. Econometrics The branch of economics that expresses economic theories in mathematical terms in order to verify them by statistical methods. It is concerned with empirical measurements of economic relations that are expressible in mathematical form. Econometrics seeks to measure the impact of one economic variable on another to enable the prediction of future events or to provide advice on economic-policy choices to produce desired results. Economic theory can supply qualitative information concerning an economic problem but it is the task of econometrics to provide the quantitative content for these qualitative statements. 282 Glossary

Economic Growth An increase in a nations or an areas capacity to produce goods and services coupled with an increase in production of these goods and services. Usually, economic growth is measured by the annual rate of increase in a nations gross national product (GNP) as adjusted for price changes. Economic Model A mathematical statement of economic theory. Use of an economic model is a method of analysis that presents an oversimplified picture of the real world. Ecotourism Though there is no wide agreement on a strict definition, the term often suggests tourism that does not disturb the ecological balance of a regions resources of land, labor, transportation, and other assets. Also known as “green tourism.” Elastic Demand The percentage change induced in one factor of demand divided by a given percentage change in the factor that caused the change. For example, if the price of a commodity is raised, purchasers tend to reduce their buying rate. The relationship between price and purchasing rate, which is known as the elasticity of demand, expresses the percentage change in the buying rate divided by the percentage change in price. Elasticity The relative response of one variable to a small percentage change in another variable. Equilibrium The state of an economic system in which all forces for change are balanced so that the net tendency to change is zero. An economic system is considered to be in equilibrium when all the significant variables show no change over a period of time. Equity Amount of capital invested in an enterprise. It represents a participative share of ownership, and in an accounting sense it is calculated by subtracting the liabilities (obligations) of an enterprise from its assets. Excess Reserves The surplus of cash and deposits owned by commercial member banks of the Federal Reserve System over what they are legally required to hold at Reserve Banks or in their own vaults. The excess-reserve position of a bank is an indication of its ability to invest in government bonds or to make loans to customers. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve System is trying to stimulate business in periods of economic sluggishness, it buys government bonds from private sellers, thus increasing bank reserves, and vice versa. Externality The result of choices by individuals and firms that affects other individuals and firms without operating through market prices. Externalities may be positive and beneficial to society or negative and harmful, as an air-polluting manufacturing process would be. FIT Denotes the free or foreign independent traveler market segment. See also IT. Foreign Exchange All monetary instruments that give residents of one country a financial claim on another country. The use of foreign exchange is a countrys principal means of settling its transactions with other countries. Franchise A brand for goods and services that provides a distinct identity and that can be globally extended through franchise agreements that provide local owners with quantity purchase discounts, advertising and real estate support, Glossary 283

etc. Airlines have distinct franchises in the routes that they fly (e.g., those of British Air, American, United, etc.). Hotel chains, car rental companies, travel agencies, and restaurant chains use franchise agreements to extend the brand (e.g., McDonalds, Hilton, Marriott, Avis, Carlson, etc.). Free Reserves The margin by which excess reserves exceed borrowings at Federal Reserve Banks. They are a better indicator of the banking systems ability to expand loans and investments than excess reserves. Manipulation of the net free- reserve position of member banks is an indication of the monetary policy that the Federal Reserve wishes to pursue. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The measure of the value of all goods and services produced in a country no matter whether that output belongs to natives or foreigners. It is different from gross national product (GNP), which measures output belonging to U.S. citizens and corporations wherever that output is created. In the United States, the differences between the values of the two series have been slight. See Gross national product. Gross National Product (GNP) The most comprehensive measure of a nations total output of goods and services. In the United States, the GNP represents the dollar value at current prices of all goods and services produced for sale plus the estimated value of certain imputed outputs, that is, goods and services that are neither bought nor sold. The rental value of owner-occupied dwellings and the value of farm products consumed on the farm are the most important imputed outputs included; the services of housewives are among the most important nonmarket values included. The GNP includes only final goods and services; for example, a pair of shoes that costs the manufacturer $2.50, the retailer $4.50, and the consumer $6.00 adds to the GNP only $6.00, the amount of the final sale, not $13.00, the sum of all the transactions. The GNP can be calculated by adding either all expenditures on currently produced goods and services or all incomes earned in producing these goods and services. Gross Win The casino equivalent of revenues or sales in other businesses. It is from the gross win that operating expenses must be deducted. Handle A term used in the gaming industry to indicate the total dollar amount bet on the outcome of an event. Hold A term used in the gaming industry to indicate how much of the drop is retained (won) by the game operator through the course of play. Hold can be expressed as a percentage of the drop in which case it is known as the hold percentage, often in a shorthand way called “win.” Income Effect A term used in demand analysis to indicate the increase or decrease in the amount of a good that is purchased because of a price-induced change in the purchasing power of a fixed income. When the price of a commodity declines, the income effect enables a person to buy more of this or other commodities with a given income. The opposite occurs when the price rises. By using indifference curves, it is possible to separate the income effect from the so-called substitution effect in which the demand for a price-reduced good rises as it is substituted for other goods whose prices have remained constant. 284 Glossary

Indifference Curve A graphic curve that represents the various combinations of two goods that will yield the consumer the same total satisfaction. For example, a household may receive the same satisfaction from consuming four pounds of steak or one pound of chicken. By assuming that the two commodities can be substituted for each other, it is possible to draw an indifference schedule that contains all of the possible combinations of the commodities that will yield the same satisfaction. When the schedule is plotted on a graph, with one commodity along the vertical axis and another along the horizontal axis, the curve that connects the points is called an indifference curve. Inelastic Demand (Inelasticity) A term used to describe a proportionally smaller change in the purchase rate of a good than the proportional change in price that caused the change in amount bought. When the demand for a product is inelastic, a relatively large price change is necessary to cause a relatively small increase in purchase. To calculate the elasticity of demand, the percentage change in buying rate (the quantity bought per period of time) is divided by the percentage change in price. Inflation A persistent upward movement in the general price level. It results in a decline in purchasing power. Interest The price paid for the use of money over a period of time. Individuals, businesses, and governments buy the use of money. Businesses pay interest for the use of money to purchase capital goods because they can increase production and productivity through the introduction of new plants and new machines. Inventory Supply of various goods kept on hand by a firm to meet needs promptly as they arise and thus assure uninterrupted operation of the business. In manufacturing, for example, inventory includes not only finished products awaiting shipment to selling outlets but also raw materials and countless other items required for the production and distribution of the product. IT Denotes the inclusive tour (i.e., packaged travel segment). Sometimes also known as GIT for group inclusive tour and contrasts to FIT (see above). Labor Force According to the concept of the U.S. Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the noninstitutionalized population, 16 years of age or older, who either are employed or are looking for work. Lead-Lag Relationship The timing of changes in one statistical series in relation to changes in another series. The term is frequently used in sales forecasting, which makes use of the timing pattern between a companys sales and a particular economic indicator. Liabilities The debts or amounts of money owed by an individual, partnership, or corporation to others. Considered from another point of view, liabilities are the claims or rights, expressed in monetary terms, of an individuals or a corporations creditors. In accounting, liabilities are classified as either short-term or long- term liabilities or as secured or unsecured liabilities. Short-term liabilities are those that will be satisfied, or paid, within 1 year. Load Factor Term used by airlines, for a single sector flight, to indicate the passengers carried as a percentage of the seats available for sale. On a network Glossary 285

of routes, the load factor is obtained by taking total passenger-miles as a percentage of total seat-miles available. Macroeconomics Modern economic analysis concerned with data in aggregate as opposed to individual form. It concerns itself with an overall view of economic life considering the total size, shape, and functioning of economic experience rather than the workings of individual parts. More specifically, macroeconomics involves the analysis of the general price level rather than the prices of individual commodities, national output or income rather than the income of the individual firm, and total employment rather than employment in an individual firm. Marginal Cost The additional cost that a producer incurs by making one additional unit of output. If, for example, total costs were $13,000 when a firm was producing two machine tools per day and $18,000 when it was producing three machine tools per day, the marginal cost of producing one machine tool was $5000. The marginal cost may be the same or higher or lower in moving from three to four machine tools. The concept of marginal cost plays a key role in determining the quantity of goods that a firm chooses to produce. The purely competitive firm, which faces a given price set in the market, increases its output until marginal cost equals price. That point is the firms best-profit output point. The imperfectly competitive firm equates marginal cost to marginal revenue (additional revenue) to obtain the highest profits. For most firms, marginal costs decline for a while and then begin to rise. The pattern of the marginal-cost graph depends on the nature of the firms production function and the prices of the goods that it buys. Marginal Propensities The marginal propensity indicates the proportion out of every dollar of additional income that consumers, on the average, are willing to save, invest, spend, and import. Marginal propensities are central to macroeconomic theories and models such as those of economist John Maynard Keynes in the 1930s. Marginal Revenue The additional revenue that a seller receives from putting one more unit of output on the market. Margins See Profit margin. Market Share The ratio of a companys sales, in units or dollars, to total industry sales, in units or dollars, on either an actual basis or a potential basis for a specific time period. Microeconomics Modern economic analysis concerned with data in individual form as opposed to aggregate form. It is concerned with the study of the individual firm rather than aggregates of firms, the individual consuming unit rather than the total population, and the individual commodity rather than total output. Microeconomics deals with the division of total output among industries, products, and firms and the allocation of resources among competing uses. It is concerned with the relative prices of particular goods and the problem of income distribution. Model The expression of a theory by means of mathematical symbols or diagrams. 286 Glossary

Modern Portfolio Theory A theory that enables investment managers to classify, estimate, and control the sources of investment risk and return. Monopoly A market structure with only one seller of a commodity. In pure monopoly, the single seller exercises absolute control over the market price because there is no competitive supply of goods on the market. The seller can choose the most profitable price and does so by raising the price and restricting the output below what would be achieved if there were competition. In a natural monopoly, the monopolists economies of scale are large. Monopsony A market structure with a single buyer of a commodity. Pure monopsony, or buyers monopoly, is characterized by the ability of the single buyer to set the buying price. In the case of a monopsonist who maximizes profits, both the buying price and the quantity bought are lower than they would be in a competitive situation. National Income The total compensation of the elements used in production (land, labor, capital, and entrepreneurship) that comes from the current production of goods and services by the national economy. It is the income earned (but not necessarily received) by all persons in the country in a specified period. Nonborrowed Reserves A reserve aggregate consisting of total bank reserves (deposits of the Federal Reserve and vault cash) minus borrowings by member banks from the Federal Reserve. Oligopoly A type of market structure in which a small number of firms supply the major portion of an industrys output. The best-known example in the U.S. economy is the automobile industry in which three firms account for 65 % of the output of passenger cars. Although oligopolies are most likely to develop in industries whose production methods require large capital investments, they also cover such diverse items as cigarettes, light bulbs, chewing gum, detergents, and razor blades. In economic theory, the term oligopoly means a mixture of competition and monopoly. The benefit or harm to the economy at large by oligopolies remains in dispute. Operating Income Earnings before interest, other income, and taxes. Opportunity Costs The value of the productive resources used in producing one good, such as an automobile, instead of another good, such as a machine tool. With relatively fixed supplies of labor and capital at any given time, the economy cannot produce all it wants of everything. Paretian Optimum A situation that exists when no one (say person A) in a society can move into a position that A prefers without causing someone else (person B) to move into a position that B prefers less. In other words, a situation is not a paretian or social optimum if it is possible, by changing the way in which commodities are produced or exchanged, to make one person better off without making another person (or persons) worse off. See Second-best theory. Partnership A type of business organization in which two or more persons agree on the amounts of their contribution (capital and effort) and on the distribution of profits, if any. Partnerships are common in retail trade, accounting, and law. Glossary 287

Passenger-Miles (Kilometers) The number of passengers on a flight multiplied by the stage distance as measured in miles or kilometers. Personal-Consumption Expenditures Expenditures that reflect the market value of goods and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions or acquired by them as income in kind. The rental value of owner-occupied dwellings is included, but not the purchases of dwellings. Purchases are recorded at cost to consumers, including excise or sales taxes, and in full at the time of purchase whether made with cash or on credit. Personal Income According to the concept of the U.S. Department of Commerce, the amount of current income received by persons from all sources, including transfer payments from government and business, but excluding transfer payments from other sources. Personal income also includes the net incomes of unincorporated businesses and nonprofit institutions and nonmonetary income such as the estimated value of food consumed on farms and the estimated rental value of homes occupied by their owners. PFC In airlines, refers to PFC is passenger facility charges (i.e., charges to passengers for use of airport facilities). PFC revenues are used to pay for runways, terminals, and other related assets. Price/Earnings Ratio The current market price per share of a companys stock expressed as a multiple of the companys per-share earnings. Production Function The various combinations of land, labor, materials, and equipment that are needed to produce a given quantity of output. The production function expresses the maximum possible output that can be produced with any specified quantities of the various necessary inputs. Every production function assumes a given level of technology; once technological innovations have been introduced, the production function changes. Productivity The goods and services produced per unit of labor or capital or both; for example, the output of automobiles per person-hour. The ratio of output to all labor and capital is a total productivity measure; the ratio of output to either labor or capital is a partial measure. Anything that raises output in relation to labor and capital leads to an increase in productivity. Profit Margin Net profit from operations divided by net sales and expressed as a percentage. This percentage measures the efficiency of a company or an industry. Nevertheless, profit margins vary widely among industries and among companies within a given industry. See Returns. Profits The amount left over after a business enterprise has paid all its bills. Prospectus Any communication, either written or broadcast by radio or television, that offers a security for sale. The prospectus contains the most important parts of the registration statement, which must give all information relevant to the issue. Public Good A good for which the costs of production are independent of the number of people who consume it. National defense is an example, for one persons consumption does not diminish the quantity available to others. TV programs are almost pure public goods because the program, no matter how it is 288 Glossary

recorded, remains unchanged regardless of how many people view it. In contrast, pure private goods, once consumed by an individual, are no longer available for someone else. For private goods, say a slice of bread, the costs of production are related to the number of people who consume it. Rack Rate The maximum published rate applicable to a hotels room-type segment. Regression Line A statistical term that indicates a relationship between two or more variables. The regression line was first used by Sir Francis Galton to indicate certain relationships in his theory of heredity, but it is now employed to describe many functional relationships. A regression, or least-squares, line is derived from a mathematical equation relating one economic variable to another. The use of regression lines is important in determining the effect of one variable on another. Required Reserves The percentages of their deposits that U.S. commercial banks are required to set aside as reserves at their regional Federal Reserve Bank or as cash in their vaults. Reserve requirements vary according to the category of the bank. Returns The earnings or profit compensations received for owning assets or equity positions. Also, returns on sales are equivalent to profit margins. Risk The exposure of an investor to the possibility of loss of money. Profit is the investors reward for assuming the risk of economic uncertainty, such as changes in consumer tastes or changes in technology. The financial risk is based on natural, human, and economic uncertainties. Second-Best Theory A theory that analyzes alternative suboptimal positions to determine the second best when some constraint prevents an economy from reaching a paretian optimum. See Paretian optimum. Secular Trend A statistical term denoting the regular, long-term movement of a series of economic data. The secular trend of most economic series is positive, or upward, indicating growth, the angle of the trend depending on how fast or how slow the growth rate is. Spoilage In airlines, the term refers to seats for which demand exists but which, for various reasons, nevertheless actually depart empty. There is no spoilage if at the date of departure the number of reservations equal capacity. Overbooking occurs if at the date of departure the number of reservations exceeds capacity. Supply The ability and willingness of a firm to sell a good or service. The firms supply of a good or service is a schedule of the quantities of that good or service that the firm would offer for sale at alternative prices at a given moment in time. The supply schedule, or the listing of quantities that would be sold at different prices, can be shown graphically by means of a supply curve. The term supply refers to the entire schedule of possibilities, not to one point on the schedule. It is an instantaneous concept expressing the relationship of price and the quantity that would be willingly sold, all other factors being constant. Tax Credit A legal provision permitting U.S. taxpayers to deduct specified sums from their tax liabilities. Glossary 289

Tax Deduction A legal provision permitting U.S. taxpayers to deduct specified expenditures from their taxable income. Time Series A set of ordered observations of a particular economic variable, such as prices, production, investment, and consumption, taken at different points in time. Most economic series consist of monthly, quarterly, or annual observations. Monthly and quarterly economic series are used in short-term business forecasting. Underwriter Any person, group, or firm that assumes a risk in return for a fee; usually called a premium or commission. Unemployment Rate The number of jobless persons expressed as a percentage of the total labor force. The United States counts as unemployed anyone 16 years of age or over who is out of work and would like a job (even if that person is doing little about finding one). Upgauging In airlines, an increase in capacity by adding seats o existing aircraft and replacing smaller planes with larger ones. Utility The ability of a good or a service to satisfy human wants. It is the property possessed by a particular good or service that affords an individual pleasure or prevents pain during the time of its consumption or the period of anticipation of its consumption. The degree of utility of a good varies constantly. Thus, utility is not proportional to the quantity or type of the good or service consumed. Warrant An option that gives the holder the privilege of purchasing a certain amount of stock at a specified price for a stipulated period. Wet Lease Refers to aircraft leasing that requires the lessor to provide the lessee with aircraft, crew, and sometimes also maintenance and insurance. Altogether, known as ACMI. Win See Gross win. Working Capital, Net The excess of current assets over current liabilities. These excess current assets are available to carry on business operations. As demand increases in prosperous times, a large volume of working capital is needed to expand production. Workweek The number of weekly hours per factory worker for which pay has been received, including paid holidays, vacations, and sick leaves. In the United States, workweek figures cover full-time and part-time production and related workers who receive payment for any part of the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month. Because of increasing amounts of paid holidays, vacations, and sick leave, the paid workweek exceeds the number of hours actually worked per week. The average-workweek series compiled from payroll data by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics differs from the series of weekly hours actually worked that is compiled from household surveys by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. It also differs from the standard or scheduled workweek because of such factors as absenteeism, part-time work, and stoppages. Yield 1. The percentage that is derived from dividing the annual return from any investment by the amount of the investment, for example, a stocks annual per share dividend payment rate divided by its per share price. 2. In airlines, the 290 Glossary

average revenue per passenger-mile, obtained by dividing total passenger revenue by the total passenger-miles. 3. In hotels, the yield per room, calculated by dividing room sales by available room-nights instead of occupied room-nights. 4. In cruise ships, similarly, revenues per available berths. References

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