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Appendix A: Sources of Information Appendix A: Sources of Information The most convenient sources of macroeconomic data for use in travel industry studies include the following regular U.S. Department of Commerce publications: Survey of Current Business, containing personal-consumption expenditure figures for the preceding 4 years U.S. Labor Department, Monthly Review and Handbook of Labor Statistics, for articles and data on labor and employment issues U.S. Census Selected Services, which contains regional data on revenues, employ- ment, and productivity U.S. Statistical Abstract for historical series U.S. Industrial Outlook, published every year with forecasts for the next 5 years. Information on specific travel business topics is also widely available in the following regularly published nongovernment-sponsored magazines, newspapers, journals, and Web sites. Advertising Age Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management Airfinance Euro Money Yearbook Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Technology Airfinance Journal Journal of Sustainable Tourism Airline Business Journal of Transportation and Statistics Airports Council Intl. web site(www.aci-na.org) Journal of Transport Economics and Policy (continued) © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016 267 H.L. Vogel, Travel Industry Economics, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-27475-1 268 Appendix A: Sources of Information Airport World Journal of Travel Research Annals of Tourism Research Journal of Travel Research ATA Handbook and Web site (www.air-trans Lodging/Hospitality port.org) Aviation Daily Lodging/Hospitality Aviation & Aerospace Almanac www.Lodgingresearch.com Hotels Office of Travel & Tourism Industries Hotel & Motel Management PlaneBusiness.com HotelsNewsNow.com Tourism Economics ICAO web site (www.ICAO.org) Tourism Management International Journal of Hospitality Travel Agent Management International Journal of Tourism Research Travel & Tourism Analyst (www.t-ti.com) Journal of Ecotourism World Airline News Journal of Gambling Studies World Tourism Organization Yearbook See also Global Airline Industry Program, Airline Data Project, http://web.mit.edu/ airlinedata/www/default.html Appendix B: Valuation Concepts The valuation approaches discussed in Sect. 1.6 may be broadly applied to any asset class. However, travel industry analysts will also encounter financial notions of internal rates of return (IRR) and economic value added (EVA). The objective here is not to replicate the detail that would be provided in standard texts on financial theory and practice, but to provide a brief introduction to the basic concepts. Internal Rate of Return The time value of money is central to all valuation calculations, which must include the number of periods, n, over which cash flows in or out; present value, pv; future value, fv; and an interest rate, r. Using these elements, project investments are decided on the basis of whether the required rate of return—the return in excess of the project’s cost of capital—will be earned and whether such a return is by comparison above those that might be earned by other projects also competing for the same capital at the same time. This required rate of return may also be further specified as the required return to debt capital, k;to equity capital, k; or to a weighted average of both. In ranking of alternative investment projects, whether involving a tangible asset such as a new airplane or less tangible assets such as landing rights, an internal rate of return (IRR) analysis is usually helpful, if not always totally decisive. The IRR is defined as the rate of discount, k, which makes the net present value (NPV) equal to zero. Because an increase of the discount rate (i.e., required rate of return) arith- metically decreases the NPV of a project, it is then possible through trial and error to determine the IRR at which a project’s NPV declines to zero. Assuming that the project is financed through equity only, then the discovered IRR provides an estimated return on equity (ROE). If the ROE is above the cost of equity capital, ke, the project should be accepted. If it is equal to the cost of equity capital, an investor might be indifferent to its prospects. And certainly, the project would be rejected if the IRR were below ke. This approach will normally lead to decisions that are consistent with a strategy of maximizing NPV, but there are circumstances when this will not always be true. For example, it is possible that no IRR can be determined. Moreover, it is possible © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016 269 H.L. Vogel, Travel Industry Economics, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-27475-1 270 Appendix B: Valuation Concepts that mutually exclusive alternative projects are being considered. Rankings based on NPV alone would provide an immediate decision, whereas rankings based on IRRs suffer from problems of scale and from assumptions concerning the reinvest- ment rate. Although IRR may show the highest rate of return, it does not indicate the number of dollars of value that might be created. And it is possible that a project’s cash flow timing is such that the NPV never falls to zero or that the NPV crosses the horizontal axis and drops to zero more than once, thereby producing multiple IRRs. Obviously, a project with an IRR of 40 % creating only $100 of NPV should not be chosen over a project with a 25 % IRR but that creates $500 of NPV. The IRR method also makes the implicit assumption that a project’s cash flows are, over the life of the investment, able to be reinvested at the same rate as the IRR. Usually, such an assumption is unrealistic. Appendix C: Major Games of Chance and Slots In studying the financial economics of gaming, it is essential to have at least a cursory knowledge of how the major games are played. This appendix by no means intended as a complete guide. Many websites and widely available books, including Schwartz (2006) on the history of gambling, contain far greater detail concerning the finer points of play strategy and money management (i.e., the number of units wagered at each betting decision).1 Tax consequences may also have some relevance.2 Blackjack In blackjack, alternatively known as 21 or vingt-et-un, the player’s goal is to receive cards totaling more than those of the dealer, but not exceeding 21—and to do this before the dealer has to show his or her hand. An ace card can be counted as either 1 or 11, other numbers count as their actual values, and picture cards count as 10. Suits do not matter. The payoff to a winning player is equivalent to the amount bet 1 Economists familiar with the efficient-market hypothesis will recognize many of the concepts (e.g., martingales) that are involved in money management. A martingale is any system of trying to make up losses in previous bets by doubling or otherwise increasing the amount bet. The pyramid or D’Alembert system is also popular. Martingales and the importance of the Kelly criterion in portfolio management are discussed in Poundstone (2005, pp. 190–201.) The criterion says “When faced with a choice of wagers or investments, choose the one with the highest geometric mean of outcomes.” This is closely related to the Kelly formula for bet size (i.e., fraction of bankroll to be wagered), which is edge/odds, where edge is the amount expected to be won on a wager placed over and over again with the same probabilities (Poundstone 2005, p. 72). 2 Players should also be aware that the IRS requires bingo and slot-machine winners of more than $1200 and keno winners of more than $1500 to file form W-2G. In the case of lotteries and racetrack winners, withholding of 20 % for federal taxes may begin at $1000. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016 271 H.L. Vogel, Travel Industry Economics, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-27475-1 272 Appendix C: Major Games of Chance and Slots (i.e., even money), except in the case of “blackjack” (a “natural” 21 on the first two cards), when the payoff is three units to two. The game operator’s advantage in blackjack is difficult to compute at any point of play. However, from the top of a deck, blackjack ordinarily provides the house with an edge of a little more than 2 %.3 As the game progresses the house edge (which depends importantly on the fact that the dealer turns over his cards after the player has gone bust) may disappear, and a skilled card counter can take advantage of such moments by increasing the size of the bet at that time. Blackjack is thus the only casino game that can be beaten by players and it is this well-advertised fact that has made blackjack the most popular of casino table games. To win consistently, skills in card counting, in play strategy, and in money management must be employed simultaneously in the typical high-speed, pressur- ized casino environment.4 Because attainment of such skills requires innate ability in mathematics and extensive study and practice (the patience for which is not apt to be found in most players), however, the threat to casino profits from self- proclaimed card counters is usually more imagined than real. The presence of card counters has nonetheless tended to unnerve managements and rather than simply foiling recognized counters by setting low betting limits, casinos have devised a multitude of card-cutting and multideck variations. Craps Craps has long been a favorite in American casinos and, along with poker, is a quintessential American game. It evolved from the English game called hazard, and was adopted and refined in New Orleans in the early 1800s. Thereafter it spread to immigrant neighborhoods on the East Coast. In contrast to 21, in which probability calculations are especially complicated, the house edge in bank craps as regularly conducted in casinos can be readily computed.
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